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TRB Chairman’s Luncheon
Building Highway Capacity




          John Horsley
         Executive Director
         January 16, 2013
TRB Speech like a Texas Longhorn:
 “Two points with a lot of bull in between”
Three Points
• Need to increase
  highway capacity
• Ability of states
  to build that
  capacity
• Ways Congress
  can fund it
AASHTO Supports Transit
• In 2012, AASHTO, APTA and others defeated an
  attempt to undercut long-term funding for transit
• States provide more funding for transit than the
  federal government. In 2012,States $13.6 billion,
  Federal $11.7 billion
• AASHTO goal: Double transit ridership in 20
  years
1. Need for Highway Capacity:
   Backlog over last 50 years
                1960          2013
Population      160 million   315 million   Doubled
Vehicle Miles   1 trillion    3 trillion    Tripled
Heavy Trucks    700,000       2.5 million   Quadrupled
From 1980 to 2010, Interstate Traffic Increased by 150%,
While Capacity Increased Only 15%: Result - Bottlenecks
Highway Capacity Needed over
             next 40 years
• As U.S. population grows by 100 million
• As truck freight doubles
• As vehicle miles traveled increases from
  3 trillion to 4 trillion or more
You do the math and judge for yourself
 whether additional highway capacity
 will be needed
2. Ability of States to Build
     Highway Capacity Needed
• Three projects
  completed over last 5
  years
• Three projects to be
  completed over next 5
  years
• Dispell Myth that
  States can’t build big
  projects anymore
$2.5 Billion Woodrow Wilson Bridge,
 Maryland and Virginia DOTs, 2008
$685 Million Legacy Parkway,
      Utah DOT, 2008
$1.9 Billion I-495 Beltway HOT Lanes,
 Virginia DOT, Transurban/Fluor PPP
$6.4 Billion San Francisco Bay
Bridge Replacement, Caltrans, 2013
$2.5 Billion Louisville Bridges,
KYDOT Design-Build, INDOT PPP
$2 Billion Detroit, Michigan to Windsor,
      Ontario International Bridge
Given political will and a way to fund the project,
    states can build what the country needs
3. Ways Congress Can Fund Needed
   Highway and Transit Investment
• $50 billion TRIP Bond program
• Tax Reform to restore solvency to
  Highway Trust Fund by
• replacing cents per gallon excise
  tax on fuels with a sales tax
$50 Billion TRIP Bond Program,

•
       $1 Billion for EveryOregon (D),
    Sponsored by Sen. Ron Wyden,
                                 State
  and Sen. John Hoeven, North Dakota (R)
• Wyden’s Build America Bonds, authorized 2009
  $181 billion issued, 25% for transportation
• From proceeds of TRIP bonds, over 6 years
  every state would receive $1 billion in cash
• No debt incurred by states, cost to U.S. Treasury
  totally paid for through customs fees
Transportation’s Fiscal Cliff
      October,2014
Tax Reform to Restore Solvency of
       Highway Trust Fund
• Replace cents per gallon excise tax with sales
  tax on fuels
• Twelve states already levy sales taxes
• Federal Government spends $15 billion more
  each year than revenues coming in
• Rate to be set at level that restores solvency to
  Highway Trust Fund
• Sales taxes indexed to price of fuel
Potential Sales Tax Receipts
                                                  (Figures in billions)
                               2013             2014             2015             2016             2017                2018
     GASOLINE
     RECEIPTS                  $37.7            $39.6            $40.8            $41.3            $41.9               $42.2
     (at 8.4%)

DIESEL RECEIPTS
                               $14.7            $15.6            $16.3            $16.8            $17.2               $17.6
   (at 10.6%)

TOTAL                         $52.4            $55.2            $57.1            $58.0            $59.1            $59.8

Note: Based on Energy Information Administration forecast of fuel prices. 2013 average sales-weighted gasoline price
for all grades with all federal, state, and local state taxes is $3.29; diesel is $2.70.
Stable Future for Highway and
  Transit Programs 2013-2018
• Funding program at current levels would require
  $320 billion
• Excise taxes are expected to generate
• $236 billion.
• Sales tax revenues would generate about
• $350 billion
• At stake is more than $100 billion
Four Questions for Members of
   Congress: Left and Right
• Do you want to sustain the program at current levels or
  reduce it and cut thousands of jobs?
• Do you want to sustain the program by transferring more
  general fund dollars, or make transportation users pay
  their own way?
• By shifting to a sales tax, do you want to reduce the
  deficit $150 billion over ten years?
• If you could do all this and it would cost drivers less than
  $1 dollar per week per car, wouldn’t this make sense?
Please Join Forces to Demand that Congress
Provide Long-term Funding for Transportation

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TRB Chairman's Luncheon - January 16, 2013

  • 1. TRB Chairman’s Luncheon Building Highway Capacity John Horsley Executive Director January 16, 2013
  • 2. TRB Speech like a Texas Longhorn: “Two points with a lot of bull in between”
  • 3. Three Points • Need to increase highway capacity • Ability of states to build that capacity • Ways Congress can fund it
  • 4. AASHTO Supports Transit • In 2012, AASHTO, APTA and others defeated an attempt to undercut long-term funding for transit • States provide more funding for transit than the federal government. In 2012,States $13.6 billion, Federal $11.7 billion • AASHTO goal: Double transit ridership in 20 years
  • 5. 1. Need for Highway Capacity: Backlog over last 50 years 1960 2013 Population 160 million 315 million Doubled Vehicle Miles 1 trillion 3 trillion Tripled Heavy Trucks 700,000 2.5 million Quadrupled
  • 6. From 1980 to 2010, Interstate Traffic Increased by 150%, While Capacity Increased Only 15%: Result - Bottlenecks
  • 7. Highway Capacity Needed over next 40 years • As U.S. population grows by 100 million • As truck freight doubles • As vehicle miles traveled increases from 3 trillion to 4 trillion or more You do the math and judge for yourself whether additional highway capacity will be needed
  • 8. 2. Ability of States to Build Highway Capacity Needed • Three projects completed over last 5 years • Three projects to be completed over next 5 years • Dispell Myth that States can’t build big projects anymore
  • 9. $2.5 Billion Woodrow Wilson Bridge, Maryland and Virginia DOTs, 2008
  • 10. $685 Million Legacy Parkway, Utah DOT, 2008
  • 11. $1.9 Billion I-495 Beltway HOT Lanes, Virginia DOT, Transurban/Fluor PPP
  • 12. $6.4 Billion San Francisco Bay Bridge Replacement, Caltrans, 2013
  • 13. $2.5 Billion Louisville Bridges, KYDOT Design-Build, INDOT PPP
  • 14. $2 Billion Detroit, Michigan to Windsor, Ontario International Bridge
  • 15. Given political will and a way to fund the project, states can build what the country needs
  • 16. 3. Ways Congress Can Fund Needed Highway and Transit Investment • $50 billion TRIP Bond program • Tax Reform to restore solvency to Highway Trust Fund by • replacing cents per gallon excise tax on fuels with a sales tax
  • 17. $50 Billion TRIP Bond Program, • $1 Billion for EveryOregon (D), Sponsored by Sen. Ron Wyden, State and Sen. John Hoeven, North Dakota (R) • Wyden’s Build America Bonds, authorized 2009 $181 billion issued, 25% for transportation • From proceeds of TRIP bonds, over 6 years every state would receive $1 billion in cash • No debt incurred by states, cost to U.S. Treasury totally paid for through customs fees
  • 19. Tax Reform to Restore Solvency of Highway Trust Fund • Replace cents per gallon excise tax with sales tax on fuels • Twelve states already levy sales taxes • Federal Government spends $15 billion more each year than revenues coming in • Rate to be set at level that restores solvency to Highway Trust Fund • Sales taxes indexed to price of fuel
  • 20. Potential Sales Tax Receipts (Figures in billions) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 GASOLINE RECEIPTS $37.7 $39.6 $40.8 $41.3 $41.9 $42.2 (at 8.4%) DIESEL RECEIPTS $14.7 $15.6 $16.3 $16.8 $17.2 $17.6 (at 10.6%) TOTAL $52.4 $55.2 $57.1 $58.0 $59.1 $59.8 Note: Based on Energy Information Administration forecast of fuel prices. 2013 average sales-weighted gasoline price for all grades with all federal, state, and local state taxes is $3.29; diesel is $2.70.
  • 21. Stable Future for Highway and Transit Programs 2013-2018 • Funding program at current levels would require $320 billion • Excise taxes are expected to generate • $236 billion. • Sales tax revenues would generate about • $350 billion • At stake is more than $100 billion
  • 22. Four Questions for Members of Congress: Left and Right • Do you want to sustain the program at current levels or reduce it and cut thousands of jobs? • Do you want to sustain the program by transferring more general fund dollars, or make transportation users pay their own way? • By shifting to a sales tax, do you want to reduce the deficit $150 billion over ten years? • If you could do all this and it would cost drivers less than $1 dollar per week per car, wouldn’t this make sense?
  • 23. Please Join Forces to Demand that Congress Provide Long-term Funding for Transportation