An evalauation of risk based agricultural land use adjustments under a flood management strategy in a floodplain

1. CE 3200
An Evaluation of Risk-Based Agricultural Land-Use
Adjustments Under a Flood Management Strategy in a
Floodplain
Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq, Zohreh Rajabi and Nitin Muttil
Presented by,
Md. Shahariar Kabir
Roll: 1701018 Sec: A
Supervised by,
Dr. Md. Shahjahan Ali
Professor
Department of Civil Engineering, KUET, Khulna-9203

2. Background Studies
 Agricultural damage due to floods has been the most damaging
disaster in Pakistan.
 Pakistan total expenditure for flood work over 113 million USD
excluding loss of life & relief costs.
In this paper, a new strategy to develop to reduce overall economic
loss by using Expected Annual Damage (EAD) and overall benefits
of the floodplain in terms of Economic Rent (ER) of Chenab River
in Pakistan

3. Objective
 To demonstrate the land-use adaptions gains in a
floodplain in terms of overall agricultural land-use
profit.
 To identified the area where rice & maize are
comparatively economical.

4. Methodology
Flood Management Scheme Design System
Floodplain
Support
System
Storm
forecasting
Floodplain
Management
System
Floodplain
Condition
Analysis
Shortlisting
Metrics
Flood
management
Strategy
Flood
Forecasting
Emergency
Warning
Flood Control
Scheme
Simulation
Modified
Disaster
Prediction

5. Risk Based Approach
Risk= Hazard X Vulnerability
Hazard = Probability X Intensity
Vulnerability = Susceptibility X Exposure
1
𝑅𝑒𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑛 𝑃𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑜𝑑
Cause the damage
Ability of people/asset living in
floodplain withstand negative
consequences.
Resistance &
preparedness of
society

6. System’s Vulnerability Hazard Characteristics
Exposure Susceptibility Intensity Probability
Exposure
Maps
Susceptibility
Maps
Intensity
Maps
Damage
Maps
Risk
Maps
Expected
Annual
Damages

7. Obtain
GIS Data
Sets
Development
of GIS layers
Flood Modelling
Build topographical data
Develop exposure map
Produce susceptibility function
Develop hydrodynamic model
Run hydrodynamic model
Produce flood probability map
Land Use
method

8. Produce
flood
risk map
Cropping
Practices
Settlements
Zoning
Calculate land use benefits
for maize & rice
Identify the areas with
higher benefits
Evaluate benefits for
land use combination
Calculate EAD
Develop EAD map
Theoretical relocation
of settlements
Continued…

9. Fig: Stage damage functions
Da,i = Fa(d) X Da,max
Where, Da,i = damage against flood of
probability ‘i’
Fa(d) = Stage damage function
Da,max= maximum possible damage
Calculation
EAD = Di X Pi
Di= average flood damage
Pi= incremental probabilities
Rn = Rloc + Rint
Rloc = Location benefits
Rint = Intensifying benefits

10. Result & Discussion
 Figure 9 shows, rice is
causing 0.2 million USD
loss during flood season in
recommended 106.55 km2
area.
 Maize is generate 0.144
million USD profit in same
area.

11. Continued…
 There are 68 settlements with
482.64 ha affected in floodplain.
 Expected flood damage of these
settlements 0.508 millions USD.
Relocation of settlements causes
reduced cost 0.011 million USD.
For travelling cost, it is reduced
0.174 million USD.
 So, resulting net reduction
0.323 million USD.

12. Conclusion
Based on result, fluvial floodplain divided into three zones
1. Frequent flooding zone - 2 year return period
2. Medium flooding zone - 2 year to 50 year return period
3. Rare flooding zone - 50 year return period
At, frequent flooding zone harvesting maize may be
more economical. At rare flooding zone harvesting
rice may be economical. Medium flooding is critical.
These result is important to decision making process
for water managers and politicians.