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LUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET
STUDY Fall-Winter 2014
The rise of the borderless consumer
By Claudia D’Arpizio, Federica Levato, Daniele Zito and
	 Joëlle de Montgolfier
Copyright © 2014 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved.
Claudia D’Arpizio is a Bain & Company partner. Federica Levato is a principal, and Daniele Zito is a consultant. All three are based out of the
firm’s Milan office. Joëlle deMontgolfier is a practice area senior director in the firm’s Paris office. All four are part of Bain’s Global Retail and
Luxury practices.
Page 1
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Contents
	 Executive summary: Slower but steadier growth and a shift to consumers
1.	 Luxury-spending trends in 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 7
2.	 The regional lens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 11
3.	 Changes in distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 17
4.	 Individual category performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 23
5.	 Outlook for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 27
Page 3
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Executive summary:
Slower but steadier growth and a shift to consumers
The 13th edition of the Bain Luxury Study, published by Bain & Company for Fondazione Altagamma, the
industry association of the manufacturers of Italian luxury goods, analyzed recent developments in the
global luxury-goods industry.
Slower, steadier growth for luxury goods
The overall luxury industry comprises nine segments in total, one of which is personal luxury goods. Fac-
toring all segments, the overall luxury market exceeded €850 billion in 2014, showing healthy growth of
7% overall, driven primarily by luxury cars (10%) and luxury hospitality (9%).
Bain research finds that international travel and tourism is fueling an appetite for 360-degree luxury expe-
riences, such as high-end transportation, that includes highly customized “super cars” and yachts, as well
as luxury hotels and cruises.
Not to be outdone, personal luxury goods—the “core of the core” of luxury—continue to buoy the market.
The overall market is on target to reach €223 billion in 2014, triple its size 20 years ago. Yet that growth is
slowing: in 2013, luxury goods grew 7%, and in 2014, growth slowed to 5% at constant exchange rates (2%
at current rates). That slower pace is, however, more sustainable, and it reflects the “new normal” for lux-
ury goods, particularly as the global economy continues its sluggish recovery from the financial crisis of
2008. Demand from Chinese consumers, mature consumers in the US, and Japanese shoppers returning
to luxury goods have all helped shore up growth.
It is worth noting that luxury spending doesn’t always take place at home. The luxury-goods industry in
most markets is now driven by touristic spending, which means that who the buyers are matters more
than where they buy. There are exceptions, however. Japanese citizens make most of their luxury pur-
chases at home, primarily owing to currency factors. (The value of the yen has declined nearly 30% since
2012.) But Chinese consumers now represent the top and fastest-growing nationality for luxury, spending
abroad more than three times what they spend locally. Tourists are also increasingly influencing the luxury
market in the Americas. With such cross-pollination of luxury spending, it makes less and less sense to
think only in terms of location. Instead, the focus is shifting to consumers, with local trends and tastes
representing only part of the picture. This new mind-set has important implications for luxury brands. It
requires thinking about the product offerings from a more global perspective, with the concepts of sea-
sons and national boundaries—key pillars of this industry—becoming obsolete.
Page 4
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
The following are specific regional trends:
• Americas—The Americas were the undisputed growth engine in 2014, delivering 6% growth at constant
exchange rates (3% at current rates). Growth in the US could have been even more robust if it hadn’t
been for a harsh winter. Brazil posted disappointing results due to local currency devaluation, but
Mexico and Canada both maintained positive performance.
• Europe—Growth across the continent was up 2%, despite persistent economic challenges, socio-political
tensions in Eastern Europe, and less dynamic tourism. The market continues to heavily rely on inter-
national tourism, as deteriorating consumer confidence halted any significant effects from the partial
recovery among local spenders.
• Japan—Japan regained a growth leadership position in 2014, driving a positive trend through an in-
crease of 10% at constant exchange rates (2% at current rates) that made it the best-performing mar-
ket in real terms.
• China—Luxury spending in China showed a negative trend for the first time: –1% growth this year at
constant exchange rates (–2% at current rates), due to greater controls on luxury spending and chang-
ing consumption patterns. Simultaneously, less established and younger accessible brands have en-
deared themselves to the growing upper-middle-class “wannabe” consumer segment, which is expect-
ed to double by 2017.
• The Rest of Asia—Greater China is flattening while South Korea strengthened its position as a trendset-
ter and influencer for fashion and luxury. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Singapore were hampered
by the Malaysian airline accidents, but most of the rest of the region experienced a brisk pace of
growth.
Within specific categories of luxury goods, accessories captured 29% of the market and grew by 4% in
2014 (at current exchange rates)—more than apparel and hard luxury (jewelry and high-end watches), the
next two largest categories. For the first time since 2007, the growth of high-end shoes surpassed that of
leather goods, emerging as an evident status symbol, albeit at a lower ticket price than other leather goods.
At the opposite end, watches took a hit from the downturn in Asia. In response, many watchmakers cut
production to sidestep the risk of oversupply.
Across most categories, the retail channel is growing, comprising approximately 30% of the market. There
is an ongoing retailization of historical wholesale formats and markets. For instance, increasing numbers
of US department stores are adopting a concession-based model. Markets such as Russia and the Middle
East have also shifted to joint ventures over the past few years.
When it comes to a physical shopping experience, consumers prefer a monobrand environment, which
still makes up more than 50% of the market. Conversely, online, they love variety and assortment and
prefer buying in a multibrand e-environment.
Page 5
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
•	 The global luxury market comprises nine
segments, including personal luxury goods,
cars, luxury hospitality, luxury cruises, designer
furniture, fine food, fine wines and spirits, yachts
and private jets. The three biggest
segments (in order) are cars, personal luxury
goods and luxury hospitality. Personal luxury
goods are the focus of the Bain Luxury Study.
•	 The global luxury market exceeded €850 billion
in 2014. That reflects healthy growth of 7%
overall, driven primarily by luxury cars and
luxury hospitality. Growth in the luxury car
market was solid, up 10% from 2013, driven by
emerging markets, where luxury vehicles are still
seen as symbols of status and social enablers.
The high degree of vehicle personalization and
even after-sales service are helping to double or,
in some cases, triple the basic price tag. Luxury
hotel sales, up 9%, benefited from steadily
growing demand. Members of younger genera-
tions (the over-30 population) who are seeking
superior lifestyle experiences helped fuel 5%
growth in the cruise market. Demand for gourmet
food was unrelenting, particularly in filling the
gap for innovative gifts and even travel souve-
nirs. Yacht sales bounced back at a low, positive
single-digit pace (2% in 2014), while private-jet
sales are up 9%, boosted by emerging-market
demand, notably in Brazil.
•	 Personal luxury goods—the “core of the core”
of luxury—continue to buoy the market. The mar-
ket for personal luxury goods has nearly
tripled in the past 20 years, with a strong
rebound following the financial crisis in 2008.
Growth has slowed since 2013 however,
driven in part by currency effects.
1.
Luxury-spending
trends in 2014
Page 8
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Yachts
Luxury
cruises
Luxury
cars
Private
jets
Luxury
hospitality
Designer
furniture
Fine food
Luxury
wines and
spirits
Personal
luxury
goods
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Personal
luxury
goods
Worldwide luxury market, 2014E (€billions)
Luxury
cars
Luxury
hospitality
Fine wines
and spirits
Designer
furniture
Fine
food
Private
jets
Yachts Luxury
cruises
Total
2014E
223
351
150
58
18
39
19 7 1 865*
Growth,
2013–2014E (%)
2 10 9 5 2 -1 9 2 5 7
The global luxury market exceeded €850 billion in 2014, enjoying healthy growth that was driven
primarily by luxury cars and hospitality
The global luxury market comprises nine segments; personal luxury goods are the focus of the
Bain Luxury Study
Source: Bain & Company
*Discrepancy in total is due to rounding
Source: Bain & Company
Page 9
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Global personal-luxury-goods market, 1994–2014E (€billions)
September
11 SARS
Spike in $/€
exchange rate
Subprime and
financial crisis
Socioeconomic
turbulence
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
73 77
85
92 96
108
128 133 133 128
136
147
159
170 167
153
173
192
212
218 223
13%
11%
10%
3%
2%
+5%
+7%
+5%
At current exchange rates
At constant exchange rates
“Sortie du temple” Democratization Crisis and uptrade
The market for personal luxury goods has nearly tripled over the past 20 years, but growth is leveling off
Source: Bain & Company
•	 The Americas region has made a strong recovery
from the crisis, with a compound annual growth
rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2009 through 2014.
•	 In 2014, the Americas are projected to show the
strongest year-on-year growth, at 6% at constant
exchange rates (3% at current rates).
•	 The US remains the largest global market,
bigger than the next four (China, France, Italy
and Japan) combined. Moreover, the US is
continuing to grow rapidly, with estimated
growth of 5% in 2014.
•	 The importance of the US market for luxury brands
is epitomized by the magnitude of New York City
alone, which is a bigger market for personal luxury
goods than the second-largest country, Japan.
•	 China embodies the shift from local markets to
consumers. The market for luxury goods in China
contracted in 2014, yet purchases by Chinese con-
sumers now represent about a third of the global
market.
•	 Globally, many markets now depend on
touristic spending for luxury goods, not just
on local consumers.
2.
The regional lens
Page 12
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Personal-luxury-goods market, by region, 2007–2014E (€billions)
CAGR,
2007–2009 (%)
CAGR,
2009–2014 (%)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
170 167
153
173
192
212
218
223
-1 9
10 15
-9 1
-10 9
-5 5
Rest of the world
Asia
Japan
Americas
Europe
Source: Bain & Company
Personal-luxury-goods market, by region, 2007–2014E (€billions)
Year-on-year comparison,
2014E versus 2013 (%)
2014E2013
218
223
5%
5%
21%
21%
8% 8%
32% 32%
34% 34%
Rest of the world
Asia
Japan
Americas
Europe
+2 +5
+4 +6
+2 +10
+1 +5
+3 +6
+2 +2
At current
exchange rates
At constant
exchange rates
In 2014, the Americas region was confirmed as a key growth engine; Asia suffered from unexpected events
and currency effects
The Americas have made a strong recovery from the crisis
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 13
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Personal luxury goods, top countries, 2014 (€billions)
US Japan Italy France China UK Germany South
Korea
Hong
Kong
Middle
East
Russia
64.9 64.5
18.1 16.1 15.3 15.0 13.4
10.4 9.1 7.9 6.8
4.6
Growth in Euro currency,
2013–2014E (%) 3 2 -1 3 -2 9 4 7 1 -183
Growth in local currency,
2013–2014E (%)
5 10 -1 3 -1 4 4 4 3 -76
Japan
Italy
France
China
Source: Bain & Company
Personal luxury goods: growth contribution, by market, in absolute value, 2009–2014E (€billions)
US JapanItalyFranceChina UK GermanySouth
Korea
Hong
Kong
Middle
East
Russia
23.1
7.9
4.8
4.1 3.8 3.8
2.7
2.0
1.0 0.7
0.1
×3
Since 2009, the US has contributed three times as much absolute-value growth as Mainland China
The US remains the largest global market by far
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 14
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Personal luxury goods, top cities, 2014 (€billions)
New York Las
Vegas
MilanHong
Kong
Japan Paris Moscow Munich DubaiSeoulLondon Tokyo Beijing Shanghai
22.3
18.1
11.3
10.1
7.9
7.4
6.4
5.3 5.1
3.5
5.1
4.5
3.4
2.3
Source: Bain & Company
Personal-luxury-goods market in China, 2007–2014E (€billions) Global personal-luxury-goods market, by consumer
nationality, 2000–2014E (€billions)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2000 2010 2013
7%
9%
29%
13%
22%
21%
Rest of world
Other Asian
Chinese
Japanese
American
European
2014E
4.5
5.9
7.1
9.6
12.9
15.0
15.3
15.0
+0%
CAGR
+27%
CAGR
Mainland China contracted in 2014, yet purchases by Chinese consumers represent about a third of the
global market
New York City alone remains bigger than the second-largest global market
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 15
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Global personal-luxury-goods market, by region and consumer nationality, 2014
Luxury-goods spending by local
consumers versus tourists, by region (%)
Where consumers shop for
luxury goods, by nationality (%)
Americas Europe Asia Japan American European JapaneseChinese
Other tourists
Regional tourists
Local consumers
In other countries
Regionally
Locally
Most global markets now depend on touristic spending
Source: Bain & Company
•	 Company-owned retail stores continued to gain
share relative to wholesale channels. From 2007
through 2014, the share of company-owned retail
sales has gained 10 percentage points and now
totals nearly one-third of the luxury-goods market.
This reflects an ongoing “retailization” of what
had been wholesale formats (for example,
department stores and e-commerce) and markets
(such as Russia and the Middle East), with brands
increasingly seeking global control of their
operations.
•	 Retail channels grew 5% in 2014 alone. Of that,
2% came from new-store openings and the
remaining 3% came from like-for-like sales growth.
•	 Monobrand stores now represent more than
one-third of the overall market, while monobrand
distribution across formats already claims 52%.
•	 The airport channel continues to gain share,
with a CAGR of 11% from 2011 through 2014.
Airports now represent 5% of total luxury sales
and are particularly critical in Asia and Europe.
Because the beauty product category is by far the
biggest segment in airport retail, airports represent
a “sixth continent” for the beauty category.
•	 The online luxury market, which has grown
twelvefold in the past 11 years, now makes up 5%
of all sales. In terms of location, digital shopping
is more developed in the Americas. From a
category standpoint, accessories and apparel
dominate online at 41% and 28% of sales,
respectively. Retailers (such as department stores)
are still the top-performing players online,
followed by e-tailers, and then only by individual
brands, some of which are struggling to find the
right formula for this channel: indeed, some 35%
of brands still do not sell online.
3.
Changes in
distribution
Page 18
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Personal-luxury-goods market, by channel, 2007–2014E (€billions)
CAGR,
2007–2014E (%)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
170 167
153
173
192
212
218
223
2
79
21
78
22
75
25
73
27
72
28
71
29
69
31
68
32 10
Wholesale
(%)
Retail
(%)
Perimeter +3%
(~500 new directly operated stores)
Organic +2%
Source: Bain & Company
Global personal-luxury-goods market trend, by channel, 2013–2014E (€billions)
2013 2014E
+5% +1%
218
2233
69% Wholesale
Wholesale
Retail
Retail
68%
32%
31%
1
In 2014, retail growth has been driven by both new-store openings and like-for-like sales growth
Company-owned retail continues to gain share over wholesale channels
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 19
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Monobrand
stores
Global personal-luxury-goods market, by channel and format, 2014E (€billions)
Department
stores
Specialty
stores
Off-price
stores
OnlineAirport Global
luxury
Global
luxury
100 50 0 80 15 35Monobrand (%)
0 50 100 20 85 65Multibrand (%)
Wholesale68%
32%
48%
65
Market
share
52%
Retail
Multibrand
Monobrand
29%
61
27%
55
25% 19
9%
11
223 223
5%
12
5%
Rest of
the world
Americas
Europe
Asia,
including
Japan
Hard luxury
Apparel and
accessories
Beauty
Others
Source: Bain & Company
Airport personal-luxury-goods market, 2011–2014E (€billions)
2011 2014E
10.6
6%
17%
30%
47%
10.6
7.8
10.6
10%
12%
72%
2014E, by
location
2014E, by
category
5%4%
10%
13%
Growth since 2013
Growth since 2013
(at constant exchange rates)
Market share
+11%
CAGR
The airport channel continues to gain share
The share of company-owned retail has grown across all formats
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 20
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Online personal-luxury-goods market, 2003–2014E (€billions)
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
1.0
1.3
1.7
2.2
2.6 2.9
3.5
4.6
5.8
7.7
9.8
12.2
1%
2%
3%
5%
4%
Online
market share
32 37 27 20 12 22 31 24 33 2428Growth (%)
The online luxury market has grown twelvefold in 11 years
Source: Bain & Company
Page 21
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Online personal-luxury-goods market, 2014E (€billions)
12.212.212.2
15
27
58
11
16
28
41
32
33
35
By
location (%)
By
player (%)
By
category (%)
Rest of
the world
Americas
Europe
Hard luxury
Others
Apparel
Accessories
Beauty
Brand sites
E-tailers
Retailer sites
The online channel is particularly developed in the Americas, and accessories and apparel dominate
Source: Bain & Company
•	 Since 2012, accessories have become the
largest category within luxury goods (at 29% of
total sales in 2014), followed by apparel (25%),
hard luxury (22%) and beauty (20%). Moreover,
accessories have grown the fastest lately, with a
CAGR of 12% from 2009 through 2014.
•	 In 2014, this pattern held true, as accessories
grew 4% year over year—more than any other
personal-luxury-goods category and more than
the market overall.
•	 Shoes are becoming an accessible status
symbol, and that category has grown faster
than luxury leather goods every year since
2012. Shoe specialists are outpacing lifestyle
brands, especially in the men’s segment.
4.
Individual category
performance
Page 24
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Accessories
Hard luxury
Apparel
Beauty
Other
Source: Bain & Company
Global personal-luxury-goods market, by category, 2007–2014E (€billions)
CAGR,
2007–2009 (%)
CAGR,
2009–2014E (%)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E
170 167
153
173
192
212
218
223
–10 2
–4 3
–8 11
–8 6
–1 12
Accessories
Hard luxury
Apparel
Beauty
Other
Source: Bain & Company
Global personal–luxury–goods market, by category, 2013–2014E (€billions)
Change, 2013–2014 (%)
2014E2013
218 223
4% 4%
20% 20%
23% 22%
25% 25%
29% 29%
+2
+0
+1
+2
+2
+4
This pattern held true in 2014, when accessories continued growing faster than other categories
Accessories remain the biggest personal-luxury-goods category, and it is the fastest growing
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 25
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Global personal-luxury-goods market, by category, 2000–2014E (€billions)
10
10
0
0
5
5
CAGR,2000–2011(%)
CAGR, 2011–2014E (%)
Historic giants
Recent winners
Global retail
sales value
(€30 billion)
Fragrances
Cosmetics
Womenswear
Menswear
Watches
Jewelry
Shoes
Leather
Source: Bain & Company
2011 2012 2013 2014E 2011 2012 2013 2014E
Luxury leather goods, 2011–2014E (€billions) Luxury shoes, 2011–2014E (€billions)
34
36
37
12
13 14
29
11
+2%
+6%
+3%
+13%
+7%
+5%
As accessible status symbols, shoes benefit from strong tailwinds and have been growing faster than the
overall leather-goods category for the last three years
Soft accessories have been the top-performing luxury category in both the short and the long term
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
•	 After years of relentless growth, a slower
and more sustainable trend should be the new
normal. Using constant exchange rates, we
project an overall luxury-goods market of
€250 billion to €265 billion by 2017,
reflecting a growth rate of 4% to 6%.
•	 This is a more mature growth phase, in which the
industry should be more resilient and less prone
to economic spikes and dips.
•	 The future will be characterized by disruptive inno-
vations, such as cashless payments, 3-D printing,
facial recognition and augmented reality that will
completely change the luxury experience as we
know it.
•	 Yet over the next 10 years, we anticipate
the common theme of these changes will put
consumers at the center, not only of the
customer experience—as a critical part of the
ideation, creation and sale of luxury goods—but
also at the center of all major business processes
for luxury brands.
•	 In conclusion, the key to winning in the luxury
market over the next 10 years will be getting
ready for “Luxury 2.0.” Success will be defined
by a relentless focus on three luxury-goods
management principles:
5.
Outlook for the future
–– Superior customer experience
–– Flawless retail management
–– People excellence
Page 28
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
• Emerging consumers consistently support market
growth
Booming upper-middle class particularly
benefits the accessible segment
• Americans and Japanese continue on a positive
path; Europeans will recover eventually
• US and Japan are top-of-mind markets…
…while a new strategy needs to be put in place
to intercept the next wave of Chinese shoppers
in China and abroad
• Accessories will continue to outperform the
market, but tough times are ahead for luxury
watches
CAGR,
2014E–2017F
(%)
Source: Bain & Company
Market forecast for personal luxury goods (€billions)
2013 2014E 2017F
at constant
exchange rates
218 223
250–265
Key trends
+2%
(+5% at constant
exchange rates)
+4%–6%
at constant
exchange rates
After years of relentless growth, slower and more sustainable growth of 4% to 6% should be the
new normal
Source: Bain & Company
Note: Growth rates at constant exchange rates
“Sortie du temple” and
democratization
Financial crisis
and recovery The new normal What's next?
CAGR,1995–2007 (%) CAGR, 2007–2011 (%) CAGR, 2011–2014E (%) CAGR, 2014–20XX (%)
The luxury market has entered a
more mature phase…
• More resilient in the face of
economic crises
• Without booming phenomena
• Serving demanding and
different global consumers on
the move
+7
+3
+6
In this mature phase of growth, the industry should be more resilient in the face of economic spikes
Source: Bain & Company
Note: Growth rates at constant exchange rates
Source: Bain & Company
Page 29
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
All functions should
be focused on the
consumer and
evaluated through
consumer KPIs Ready-to-consumer
organization
Performance
measurement
Execution
through
excellence at
the front line
Strategy
definition and
planning
Collection
development
and
merchandising
Retail network
development
The business should
be continuously
monitored through
consumer-centric KPIs
The front line should be
emphasized as the key
consumer touchpoint and
should be trained in
customer-centric culture
Consumer
Strategic thinking
should be structured
by consumer
segments as a key
business driver
Collection develop-
ment, merchandising
structure, and buying
must consider target
consumer segments
Network development and
store planning should be
defined according to the
purchasing behavior of the
consumers who will visit
the store
1
2
34
5
6
Understanding consumers and aligning their business accordingly will become the mantra of luxury brands
over the next decade
Luxury 2.0 imperatives
Superior customer experience
• Promoter system around the brand
• Omnichannel strategy
• Innovation marketing
Flawless retail management
• Continuous network and Capex optimization
• Hospitality culture
• Assortment tailoring
People excellence
• Talent management
• Frontline engagement
• Customer centricity
Source: Bain & Company
Luxury-goods market, indexed to1995
1995 2014E 2025F
100
290
500
How will luxury businesses succeed in the next decade? Get prepared for Luxury 2.0
Source: Bain & Company
Source: Bain & Company
Page 30
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Source: Bain & Company
Monochannel Multichannel Omnichannel No channel
Lifestyle
product offer
Multiproduct
Lifestyle
coach
Monoproduct
Global
footprint
Multilocal
footprint
Global
consumer
Local
footprint
Baby boomers,
Gen X
Baby boomers,
Gen X, Gen Y
Gen Y, Gen Z,
space gen
Baby boomers
Internalization
(no partnership)
Consumers
as partners
Distribution
partnership
Licensing
partnership
Buy now,
wear now
Think now,
wear now
TransseasonalSeasonal
Exclusivity
Individual
irony
BrandProduct
Yesterday Today Tomorrow
1990s 2000s 2014 20XX
The future will be marked by disruptive innovations that should completely change luxury
Source: Bain & Company
Page 31
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Page 32
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
Key contacts in Bain’s Luxury Goods practice:
EMEA:
Milan
Claudia D’Arpizio, Partner (claudia.darpizio@bain.com)
Federica Levato, Principal (federica.levato@bain.com)
Daniele Zito, Consultant (daniele.zito@bain.com)
Paris
Marc-André Kamel, Partner (marc–andre.kamel@bain.com)
Joëlle de Montgolfier, Practice Area Senior Director (joelle.demontgolfier@bain.com)
Americas:
Boston
Darrell Rigby, Partner (darrell.rigby@bain.com)
New York
Erika Serow, Partner (erika.serow@bain.com)
Asia-Pacific:
Shanghai
Bruno Lannes, Partner (bruno.lannes@bain.com)
Hong Kong
Serge Hoffmann, Partner (serge.hoffmann@bain.com)
About the Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study:
In cooperation with Fondazione Altagamma—the flagship trade association for the Italian luxury-goods indus-
try—Bain & Company analyzes the market and financial performance of more than 270 leading luxury-goods
companies and brands. This database, known as the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory, has become
a leading and much studied source in the international luxury-goods industry. Bain has published its annual
findings in the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study since 2000. The study’s lead author is Claudia D’Arpizio, a
Bain partner in Milan. Fondazione Altagamma is led by Andrea Illy, who was named chairman in 2013.
Page 33
Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
For more information, visit www.bain.com
Shared Ambition,True Results
Bain & Company is the management consulting firm that the world’s business leaders come to
when they want results.
Bain advises clients on strategy, operations, technology, organization, private equity and mergers and acquisitions. We develop
practical, customized insights that clients act on and transfer skills that make change stick. Founded in 1973, Bain has 51 offices
in 33 countries, and our deep expertise and client roster cross every industry and economic sector. Our clients have outperformed
the stock market 4 to 1.
What sets us apart
We believe a consulting firm should be more than an adviser. So we put ourselves in our clients’ shoes, selling outcomes, not
projects. We align our incentives with our clients’ by linking our fees to their results and collaborate to unlock the full potential
of their business. Our Results Delivery®
process builds our clients’ capabilities, and our True North values mean we do the right
thing for our clients, people and communities—always.

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Luxury goods report_2014_bain&company

  • 1. LUXURY GOODS WORLDWIDE MARKET STUDY Fall-Winter 2014 The rise of the borderless consumer By Claudia D’Arpizio, Federica Levato, Daniele Zito and Joëlle de Montgolfier
  • 2. Copyright © 2014 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Claudia D’Arpizio is a Bain & Company partner. Federica Levato is a principal, and Daniele Zito is a consultant. All three are based out of the firm’s Milan office. Joëlle deMontgolfier is a practice area senior director in the firm’s Paris office. All four are part of Bain’s Global Retail and Luxury practices.
  • 3. Page 1 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Contents Executive summary: Slower but steadier growth and a shift to consumers 1. Luxury-spending trends in 2014. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 7 2. The regional lens. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 11 3. Changes in distribution. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 17 4. Individual category performance. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 23 5. Outlook for the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . pg. 27
  • 4.
  • 5. Page 3 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Executive summary: Slower but steadier growth and a shift to consumers The 13th edition of the Bain Luxury Study, published by Bain & Company for Fondazione Altagamma, the industry association of the manufacturers of Italian luxury goods, analyzed recent developments in the global luxury-goods industry. Slower, steadier growth for luxury goods The overall luxury industry comprises nine segments in total, one of which is personal luxury goods. Fac- toring all segments, the overall luxury market exceeded €850 billion in 2014, showing healthy growth of 7% overall, driven primarily by luxury cars (10%) and luxury hospitality (9%). Bain research finds that international travel and tourism is fueling an appetite for 360-degree luxury expe- riences, such as high-end transportation, that includes highly customized “super cars” and yachts, as well as luxury hotels and cruises. Not to be outdone, personal luxury goods—the “core of the core” of luxury—continue to buoy the market. The overall market is on target to reach €223 billion in 2014, triple its size 20 years ago. Yet that growth is slowing: in 2013, luxury goods grew 7%, and in 2014, growth slowed to 5% at constant exchange rates (2% at current rates). That slower pace is, however, more sustainable, and it reflects the “new normal” for lux- ury goods, particularly as the global economy continues its sluggish recovery from the financial crisis of 2008. Demand from Chinese consumers, mature consumers in the US, and Japanese shoppers returning to luxury goods have all helped shore up growth. It is worth noting that luxury spending doesn’t always take place at home. The luxury-goods industry in most markets is now driven by touristic spending, which means that who the buyers are matters more than where they buy. There are exceptions, however. Japanese citizens make most of their luxury pur- chases at home, primarily owing to currency factors. (The value of the yen has declined nearly 30% since 2012.) But Chinese consumers now represent the top and fastest-growing nationality for luxury, spending abroad more than three times what they spend locally. Tourists are also increasingly influencing the luxury market in the Americas. With such cross-pollination of luxury spending, it makes less and less sense to think only in terms of location. Instead, the focus is shifting to consumers, with local trends and tastes representing only part of the picture. This new mind-set has important implications for luxury brands. It requires thinking about the product offerings from a more global perspective, with the concepts of sea- sons and national boundaries—key pillars of this industry—becoming obsolete.
  • 6. Page 4 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. The following are specific regional trends: • Americas—The Americas were the undisputed growth engine in 2014, delivering 6% growth at constant exchange rates (3% at current rates). Growth in the US could have been even more robust if it hadn’t been for a harsh winter. Brazil posted disappointing results due to local currency devaluation, but Mexico and Canada both maintained positive performance. • Europe—Growth across the continent was up 2%, despite persistent economic challenges, socio-political tensions in Eastern Europe, and less dynamic tourism. The market continues to heavily rely on inter- national tourism, as deteriorating consumer confidence halted any significant effects from the partial recovery among local spenders. • Japan—Japan regained a growth leadership position in 2014, driving a positive trend through an in- crease of 10% at constant exchange rates (2% at current rates) that made it the best-performing mar- ket in real terms. • China—Luxury spending in China showed a negative trend for the first time: –1% growth this year at constant exchange rates (–2% at current rates), due to greater controls on luxury spending and chang- ing consumption patterns. Simultaneously, less established and younger accessible brands have en- deared themselves to the growing upper-middle-class “wannabe” consumer segment, which is expect- ed to double by 2017. • The Rest of Asia—Greater China is flattening while South Korea strengthened its position as a trendset- ter and influencer for fashion and luxury. In Southeast Asia, Malaysia and Singapore were hampered by the Malaysian airline accidents, but most of the rest of the region experienced a brisk pace of growth. Within specific categories of luxury goods, accessories captured 29% of the market and grew by 4% in 2014 (at current exchange rates)—more than apparel and hard luxury (jewelry and high-end watches), the next two largest categories. For the first time since 2007, the growth of high-end shoes surpassed that of leather goods, emerging as an evident status symbol, albeit at a lower ticket price than other leather goods. At the opposite end, watches took a hit from the downturn in Asia. In response, many watchmakers cut production to sidestep the risk of oversupply. Across most categories, the retail channel is growing, comprising approximately 30% of the market. There is an ongoing retailization of historical wholesale formats and markets. For instance, increasing numbers of US department stores are adopting a concession-based model. Markets such as Russia and the Middle East have also shifted to joint ventures over the past few years. When it comes to a physical shopping experience, consumers prefer a monobrand environment, which still makes up more than 50% of the market. Conversely, online, they love variety and assortment and prefer buying in a multibrand e-environment.
  • 7. Page 5 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
  • 8.
  • 9. • The global luxury market comprises nine segments, including personal luxury goods, cars, luxury hospitality, luxury cruises, designer furniture, fine food, fine wines and spirits, yachts and private jets. The three biggest segments (in order) are cars, personal luxury goods and luxury hospitality. Personal luxury goods are the focus of the Bain Luxury Study. • The global luxury market exceeded €850 billion in 2014. That reflects healthy growth of 7% overall, driven primarily by luxury cars and luxury hospitality. Growth in the luxury car market was solid, up 10% from 2013, driven by emerging markets, where luxury vehicles are still seen as symbols of status and social enablers. The high degree of vehicle personalization and even after-sales service are helping to double or, in some cases, triple the basic price tag. Luxury hotel sales, up 9%, benefited from steadily growing demand. Members of younger genera- tions (the over-30 population) who are seeking superior lifestyle experiences helped fuel 5% growth in the cruise market. Demand for gourmet food was unrelenting, particularly in filling the gap for innovative gifts and even travel souve- nirs. Yacht sales bounced back at a low, positive single-digit pace (2% in 2014), while private-jet sales are up 9%, boosted by emerging-market demand, notably in Brazil. • Personal luxury goods—the “core of the core” of luxury—continue to buoy the market. The mar- ket for personal luxury goods has nearly tripled in the past 20 years, with a strong rebound following the financial crisis in 2008. Growth has slowed since 2013 however, driven in part by currency effects. 1. Luxury-spending trends in 2014
  • 10. Page 8 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Yachts Luxury cruises Luxury cars Private jets Luxury hospitality Designer furniture Fine food Luxury wines and spirits Personal luxury goods Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company Personal luxury goods Worldwide luxury market, 2014E (€billions) Luxury cars Luxury hospitality Fine wines and spirits Designer furniture Fine food Private jets Yachts Luxury cruises Total 2014E 223 351 150 58 18 39 19 7 1 865* Growth, 2013–2014E (%) 2 10 9 5 2 -1 9 2 5 7 The global luxury market exceeded €850 billion in 2014, enjoying healthy growth that was driven primarily by luxury cars and hospitality The global luxury market comprises nine segments; personal luxury goods are the focus of the Bain Luxury Study Source: Bain & Company *Discrepancy in total is due to rounding Source: Bain & Company
  • 11. Page 9 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Global personal-luxury-goods market, 1994–2014E (€billions) September 11 SARS Spike in $/€ exchange rate Subprime and financial crisis Socioeconomic turbulence 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 73 77 85 92 96 108 128 133 133 128 136 147 159 170 167 153 173 192 212 218 223 13% 11% 10% 3% 2% +5% +7% +5% At current exchange rates At constant exchange rates “Sortie du temple” Democratization Crisis and uptrade The market for personal luxury goods has nearly tripled over the past 20 years, but growth is leveling off Source: Bain & Company
  • 12.
  • 13. • The Americas region has made a strong recovery from the crisis, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% from 2009 through 2014. • In 2014, the Americas are projected to show the strongest year-on-year growth, at 6% at constant exchange rates (3% at current rates). • The US remains the largest global market, bigger than the next four (China, France, Italy and Japan) combined. Moreover, the US is continuing to grow rapidly, with estimated growth of 5% in 2014. • The importance of the US market for luxury brands is epitomized by the magnitude of New York City alone, which is a bigger market for personal luxury goods than the second-largest country, Japan. • China embodies the shift from local markets to consumers. The market for luxury goods in China contracted in 2014, yet purchases by Chinese con- sumers now represent about a third of the global market. • Globally, many markets now depend on touristic spending for luxury goods, not just on local consumers. 2. The regional lens
  • 14. Page 12 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Personal-luxury-goods market, by region, 2007–2014E (€billions) CAGR, 2007–2009 (%) CAGR, 2009–2014 (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 170 167 153 173 192 212 218 223 -1 9 10 15 -9 1 -10 9 -5 5 Rest of the world Asia Japan Americas Europe Source: Bain & Company Personal-luxury-goods market, by region, 2007–2014E (€billions) Year-on-year comparison, 2014E versus 2013 (%) 2014E2013 218 223 5% 5% 21% 21% 8% 8% 32% 32% 34% 34% Rest of the world Asia Japan Americas Europe +2 +5 +4 +6 +2 +10 +1 +5 +3 +6 +2 +2 At current exchange rates At constant exchange rates In 2014, the Americas region was confirmed as a key growth engine; Asia suffered from unexpected events and currency effects The Americas have made a strong recovery from the crisis Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 15. Page 13 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Personal luxury goods, top countries, 2014 (€billions) US Japan Italy France China UK Germany South Korea Hong Kong Middle East Russia 64.9 64.5 18.1 16.1 15.3 15.0 13.4 10.4 9.1 7.9 6.8 4.6 Growth in Euro currency, 2013–2014E (%) 3 2 -1 3 -2 9 4 7 1 -183 Growth in local currency, 2013–2014E (%) 5 10 -1 3 -1 4 4 4 3 -76 Japan Italy France China Source: Bain & Company Personal luxury goods: growth contribution, by market, in absolute value, 2009–2014E (€billions) US JapanItalyFranceChina UK GermanySouth Korea Hong Kong Middle East Russia 23.1 7.9 4.8 4.1 3.8 3.8 2.7 2.0 1.0 0.7 0.1 ×3 Since 2009, the US has contributed three times as much absolute-value growth as Mainland China The US remains the largest global market by far Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 16. Page 14 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Personal luxury goods, top cities, 2014 (€billions) New York Las Vegas MilanHong Kong Japan Paris Moscow Munich DubaiSeoulLondon Tokyo Beijing Shanghai 22.3 18.1 11.3 10.1 7.9 7.4 6.4 5.3 5.1 3.5 5.1 4.5 3.4 2.3 Source: Bain & Company Personal-luxury-goods market in China, 2007–2014E (€billions) Global personal-luxury-goods market, by consumer nationality, 2000–2014E (€billions) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2000 2010 2013 7% 9% 29% 13% 22% 21% Rest of world Other Asian Chinese Japanese American European 2014E 4.5 5.9 7.1 9.6 12.9 15.0 15.3 15.0 +0% CAGR +27% CAGR Mainland China contracted in 2014, yet purchases by Chinese consumers represent about a third of the global market New York City alone remains bigger than the second-largest global market Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 17. Page 15 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Global personal-luxury-goods market, by region and consumer nationality, 2014 Luxury-goods spending by local consumers versus tourists, by region (%) Where consumers shop for luxury goods, by nationality (%) Americas Europe Asia Japan American European JapaneseChinese Other tourists Regional tourists Local consumers In other countries Regionally Locally Most global markets now depend on touristic spending Source: Bain & Company
  • 18.
  • 19. • Company-owned retail stores continued to gain share relative to wholesale channels. From 2007 through 2014, the share of company-owned retail sales has gained 10 percentage points and now totals nearly one-third of the luxury-goods market. This reflects an ongoing “retailization” of what had been wholesale formats (for example, department stores and e-commerce) and markets (such as Russia and the Middle East), with brands increasingly seeking global control of their operations. • Retail channels grew 5% in 2014 alone. Of that, 2% came from new-store openings and the remaining 3% came from like-for-like sales growth. • Monobrand stores now represent more than one-third of the overall market, while monobrand distribution across formats already claims 52%. • The airport channel continues to gain share, with a CAGR of 11% from 2011 through 2014. Airports now represent 5% of total luxury sales and are particularly critical in Asia and Europe. Because the beauty product category is by far the biggest segment in airport retail, airports represent a “sixth continent” for the beauty category. • The online luxury market, which has grown twelvefold in the past 11 years, now makes up 5% of all sales. In terms of location, digital shopping is more developed in the Americas. From a category standpoint, accessories and apparel dominate online at 41% and 28% of sales, respectively. Retailers (such as department stores) are still the top-performing players online, followed by e-tailers, and then only by individual brands, some of which are struggling to find the right formula for this channel: indeed, some 35% of brands still do not sell online. 3. Changes in distribution
  • 20. Page 18 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Personal-luxury-goods market, by channel, 2007–2014E (€billions) CAGR, 2007–2014E (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 170 167 153 173 192 212 218 223 2 79 21 78 22 75 25 73 27 72 28 71 29 69 31 68 32 10 Wholesale (%) Retail (%) Perimeter +3% (~500 new directly operated stores) Organic +2% Source: Bain & Company Global personal-luxury-goods market trend, by channel, 2013–2014E (€billions) 2013 2014E +5% +1% 218 2233 69% Wholesale Wholesale Retail Retail 68% 32% 31% 1 In 2014, retail growth has been driven by both new-store openings and like-for-like sales growth Company-owned retail continues to gain share over wholesale channels Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 21. Page 19 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Monobrand stores Global personal-luxury-goods market, by channel and format, 2014E (€billions) Department stores Specialty stores Off-price stores OnlineAirport Global luxury Global luxury 100 50 0 80 15 35Monobrand (%) 0 50 100 20 85 65Multibrand (%) Wholesale68% 32% 48% 65 Market share 52% Retail Multibrand Monobrand 29% 61 27% 55 25% 19 9% 11 223 223 5% 12 5% Rest of the world Americas Europe Asia, including Japan Hard luxury Apparel and accessories Beauty Others Source: Bain & Company Airport personal-luxury-goods market, 2011–2014E (€billions) 2011 2014E 10.6 6% 17% 30% 47% 10.6 7.8 10.6 10% 12% 72% 2014E, by location 2014E, by category 5%4% 10% 13% Growth since 2013 Growth since 2013 (at constant exchange rates) Market share +11% CAGR The airport channel continues to gain share The share of company-owned retail has grown across all formats Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 22. Page 20 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Online personal-luxury-goods market, 2003–2014E (€billions) 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 1.0 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.6 2.9 3.5 4.6 5.8 7.7 9.8 12.2 1% 2% 3% 5% 4% Online market share 32 37 27 20 12 22 31 24 33 2428Growth (%) The online luxury market has grown twelvefold in 11 years Source: Bain & Company
  • 23. Page 21 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Online personal-luxury-goods market, 2014E (€billions) 12.212.212.2 15 27 58 11 16 28 41 32 33 35 By location (%) By player (%) By category (%) Rest of the world Americas Europe Hard luxury Others Apparel Accessories Beauty Brand sites E-tailers Retailer sites The online channel is particularly developed in the Americas, and accessories and apparel dominate Source: Bain & Company
  • 24.
  • 25. • Since 2012, accessories have become the largest category within luxury goods (at 29% of total sales in 2014), followed by apparel (25%), hard luxury (22%) and beauty (20%). Moreover, accessories have grown the fastest lately, with a CAGR of 12% from 2009 through 2014. • In 2014, this pattern held true, as accessories grew 4% year over year—more than any other personal-luxury-goods category and more than the market overall. • Shoes are becoming an accessible status symbol, and that category has grown faster than luxury leather goods every year since 2012. Shoe specialists are outpacing lifestyle brands, especially in the men’s segment. 4. Individual category performance
  • 26. Page 24 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Accessories Hard luxury Apparel Beauty Other Source: Bain & Company Global personal-luxury-goods market, by category, 2007–2014E (€billions) CAGR, 2007–2009 (%) CAGR, 2009–2014E (%) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 170 167 153 173 192 212 218 223 –10 2 –4 3 –8 11 –8 6 –1 12 Accessories Hard luxury Apparel Beauty Other Source: Bain & Company Global personal–luxury–goods market, by category, 2013–2014E (€billions) Change, 2013–2014 (%) 2014E2013 218 223 4% 4% 20% 20% 23% 22% 25% 25% 29% 29% +2 +0 +1 +2 +2 +4 This pattern held true in 2014, when accessories continued growing faster than other categories Accessories remain the biggest personal-luxury-goods category, and it is the fastest growing Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 27. Page 25 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Global personal-luxury-goods market, by category, 2000–2014E (€billions) 10 10 0 0 5 5 CAGR,2000–2011(%) CAGR, 2011–2014E (%) Historic giants Recent winners Global retail sales value (€30 billion) Fragrances Cosmetics Womenswear Menswear Watches Jewelry Shoes Leather Source: Bain & Company 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2011 2012 2013 2014E Luxury leather goods, 2011–2014E (€billions) Luxury shoes, 2011–2014E (€billions) 34 36 37 12 13 14 29 11 +2% +6% +3% +13% +7% +5% As accessible status symbols, shoes benefit from strong tailwinds and have been growing faster than the overall leather-goods category for the last three years Soft accessories have been the top-performing luxury category in both the short and the long term Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 28.
  • 29. • After years of relentless growth, a slower and more sustainable trend should be the new normal. Using constant exchange rates, we project an overall luxury-goods market of €250 billion to €265 billion by 2017, reflecting a growth rate of 4% to 6%. • This is a more mature growth phase, in which the industry should be more resilient and less prone to economic spikes and dips. • The future will be characterized by disruptive inno- vations, such as cashless payments, 3-D printing, facial recognition and augmented reality that will completely change the luxury experience as we know it. • Yet over the next 10 years, we anticipate the common theme of these changes will put consumers at the center, not only of the customer experience—as a critical part of the ideation, creation and sale of luxury goods—but also at the center of all major business processes for luxury brands. • In conclusion, the key to winning in the luxury market over the next 10 years will be getting ready for “Luxury 2.0.” Success will be defined by a relentless focus on three luxury-goods management principles: 5. Outlook for the future –– Superior customer experience –– Flawless retail management –– People excellence
  • 30. Page 28 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. • Emerging consumers consistently support market growth Booming upper-middle class particularly benefits the accessible segment • Americans and Japanese continue on a positive path; Europeans will recover eventually • US and Japan are top-of-mind markets… …while a new strategy needs to be put in place to intercept the next wave of Chinese shoppers in China and abroad • Accessories will continue to outperform the market, but tough times are ahead for luxury watches CAGR, 2014E–2017F (%) Source: Bain & Company Market forecast for personal luxury goods (€billions) 2013 2014E 2017F at constant exchange rates 218 223 250–265 Key trends +2% (+5% at constant exchange rates) +4%–6% at constant exchange rates After years of relentless growth, slower and more sustainable growth of 4% to 6% should be the new normal Source: Bain & Company Note: Growth rates at constant exchange rates “Sortie du temple” and democratization Financial crisis and recovery The new normal What's next? CAGR,1995–2007 (%) CAGR, 2007–2011 (%) CAGR, 2011–2014E (%) CAGR, 2014–20XX (%) The luxury market has entered a more mature phase… • More resilient in the face of economic crises • Without booming phenomena • Serving demanding and different global consumers on the move +7 +3 +6 In this mature phase of growth, the industry should be more resilient in the face of economic spikes Source: Bain & Company Note: Growth rates at constant exchange rates Source: Bain & Company
  • 31. Page 29 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company All functions should be focused on the consumer and evaluated through consumer KPIs Ready-to-consumer organization Performance measurement Execution through excellence at the front line Strategy definition and planning Collection development and merchandising Retail network development The business should be continuously monitored through consumer-centric KPIs The front line should be emphasized as the key consumer touchpoint and should be trained in customer-centric culture Consumer Strategic thinking should be structured by consumer segments as a key business driver Collection develop- ment, merchandising structure, and buying must consider target consumer segments Network development and store planning should be defined according to the purchasing behavior of the consumers who will visit the store 1 2 34 5 6 Understanding consumers and aligning their business accordingly will become the mantra of luxury brands over the next decade Luxury 2.0 imperatives Superior customer experience • Promoter system around the brand • Omnichannel strategy • Innovation marketing Flawless retail management • Continuous network and Capex optimization • Hospitality culture • Assortment tailoring People excellence • Talent management • Frontline engagement • Customer centricity Source: Bain & Company Luxury-goods market, indexed to1995 1995 2014E 2025F 100 290 500 How will luxury businesses succeed in the next decade? Get prepared for Luxury 2.0 Source: Bain & Company Source: Bain & Company
  • 32. Page 30 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Source: Bain & Company Monochannel Multichannel Omnichannel No channel Lifestyle product offer Multiproduct Lifestyle coach Monoproduct Global footprint Multilocal footprint Global consumer Local footprint Baby boomers, Gen X Baby boomers, Gen X, Gen Y Gen Y, Gen Z, space gen Baby boomers Internalization (no partnership) Consumers as partners Distribution partnership Licensing partnership Buy now, wear now Think now, wear now TransseasonalSeasonal Exclusivity Individual irony BrandProduct Yesterday Today Tomorrow 1990s 2000s 2014 20XX The future will be marked by disruptive innovations that should completely change luxury Source: Bain & Company
  • 33. Page 31 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
  • 34. Page 32 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc. Key contacts in Bain’s Luxury Goods practice: EMEA: Milan Claudia D’Arpizio, Partner (claudia.darpizio@bain.com) Federica Levato, Principal (federica.levato@bain.com) Daniele Zito, Consultant (daniele.zito@bain.com) Paris Marc-André Kamel, Partner (marc–andre.kamel@bain.com) Joëlle de Montgolfier, Practice Area Senior Director (joelle.demontgolfier@bain.com) Americas: Boston Darrell Rigby, Partner (darrell.rigby@bain.com) New York Erika Serow, Partner (erika.serow@bain.com) Asia-Pacific: Shanghai Bruno Lannes, Partner (bruno.lannes@bain.com) Hong Kong Serge Hoffmann, Partner (serge.hoffmann@bain.com) About the Bain Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study: In cooperation with Fondazione Altagamma—the flagship trade association for the Italian luxury-goods indus- try—Bain & Company analyzes the market and financial performance of more than 270 leading luxury-goods companies and brands. This database, known as the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Observatory, has become a leading and much studied source in the international luxury-goods industry. Bain has published its annual findings in the Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study since 2000. The study’s lead author is Claudia D’Arpizio, a Bain partner in Milan. Fondazione Altagamma is led by Andrea Illy, who was named chairman in 2013.
  • 35. Page 33 Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study | Bain & Company, Inc.
  • 36. For more information, visit www.bain.com Shared Ambition,True Results Bain & Company is the management consulting firm that the world’s business leaders come to when they want results. Bain advises clients on strategy, operations, technology, organization, private equity and mergers and acquisitions. We develop practical, customized insights that clients act on and transfer skills that make change stick. Founded in 1973, Bain has 51 offices in 33 countries, and our deep expertise and client roster cross every industry and economic sector. Our clients have outperformed the stock market 4 to 1. What sets us apart We believe a consulting firm should be more than an adviser. So we put ourselves in our clients’ shoes, selling outcomes, not projects. We align our incentives with our clients’ by linking our fees to their results and collaborate to unlock the full potential of their business. Our Results Delivery® process builds our clients’ capabilities, and our True North values mean we do the right thing for our clients, people and communities—always.