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“Prediction is hard, especially about the future.” –Yogi Berra Why is the future so hard to predict? - History is chaotic - Physics is indeterminate - Biology is contingent - Humans are complex - We do not have all the facts History is chaotic - By “history” I mean the changes in the world state over time - A simple system can become complex - A complex system can become stable and simple On average - Single objects have unpredictable paths - Ensembles of objects can be more easily predicted - The “Mule” Effect (Isaac Asimov, Foundation series) History has layers - Physics – what is possible - Biology – what is likely - Society – what is permitted - Technology – what is chosen Physics is indeterminate - We cannot predict very far even with physics - Complex systems behave chaotically - We do not have all the information - Anyway, quantum Biology is contingent - Evolution is not linear - What can evolve need not - Constraints on what can evolve exist, but can be changed - Chance and adaptation Humans are complex - Admiral Rickover and the thorium reactor - The anti-nuclear movement - Social progressivism and conservationism - Result: Global warming Technology’s hope - Green Revolution – Norman Borlaug and the new crops - The failure of Ehrlich’s predictions – “100s of millions will die by 1980” - Ehrlich was right in his wrongness Now we have a global population of 7 billion, and oil has peaked We don’t know what we don’t know - How can we predict the unpredictable? - It isn’t through wish fulfilment (ad hoc thinking) - If the future is uncertain, our solutions to it will not be certain until they either fail or succeed (post hoc thinking) Why don’t we know? - We know the world more or less at present - However, we have degrees of uncertainty (distance, information flow) - Information is lost from the present and the past - We have insufficient information to predict the future What do we do? - Don’t despair - Don’t be over optimistic - Don’t think good intentions equal good outcomes Video here: https://youtu.be/b2J4Yesrqrw Further issues raised in this talk addressed during Q&A with Greg Adamson here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L96f-j4s8t4 Held at Future day in Melbourne 2015

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