The Future for Housing Affordability
                               OR
         “Who can afford a crystal ball?!”



Paul ...
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What do we mean by
  “affordable housing”?

It means housing available to low
and moderate income people at a
monthly cost...
What do we mean by
   “affordable housing”?

It means housing available to the
local workforce.
What do we mean by
  “affordable housing”?

It means closing the gap between
local wages and salaries and the
going rate f...
What do we mean by
  “affordable housing”?

It means strengthening the
community by building a strong
and diverse economic...
What do we mean by
   “affordable housing”?

It means improving the quality of
life for all members of the
community.
General Population Patterns
Population of Tennessee
    by County, 2005




              300,000 –
                 910,000
              100,000 –
 ...
Projected Population and Housing Stock

                 in Tennessee, 2006-2026

7,600,000                               ...
Counties with Slow Growth or
Population Decline, 2005-2015




          -1.0% to -9.0% Decline
           0.0% to 4.9% Gr...
Counties with Moderate to High
 Population Growth, 2005-2015




           15.0% to 42.0% Growth
            5.0% to 14.9...
Metro and non-Metro Areas
by Projected Population Change
           2005-2015




            15.0% to 18.0% Growth
      ...
Metro Area Population Change, 2005-2025
                                                                       1,422,544
 ...
non-Metro Population Change, 2005-2025
900,000
                                                  2005
800,000
            ...
Fatter Cats, 2005-2025
       Nashville MSA                                               3.7%
                        Cha...
Components of
Population Change
Components of Population Growth in
       Tennessee, 2001-2005
45,000
          Natural Increase
40,000
          Internat...
Impact of Recent Movers by County,
            2001-2005




           Out-flow of Recent Movers
           0.0% - 2.9% R...
Impact of Recent Movers by Metro and
    non-Metro Areas, 2001-2005




            Out-flow of Recent Movers
            ...
Tennessee's Population in 2005
                        by Race-Ethnicity

             6,000,000
                         ...
One Scenario for Population Growth
         by Race-Ethnicity in Tennessee

7,000,000
                                    ...
African American Population of
         Tennessee by Age and Sex, 2000-2005
                                              ...
Hispanic Population of Tennessee
            by Age and Sex, 2000-2005
                  Males                            ...
Trends in 1-person Owner Households
                          in Tennessee, 1960-2000

                               1960...
Trends in 1-person Renter Households
                         in Tennessee, 1960-2000

                             1960  ...
Median Household Income
    by County, 2005




       $55,000 or higher
       $50,000 - $54,999
       $45,000 - $49,999...
Projected Household Income Change
        by County, 2005-2015




            +50.0% to +93.9%
            +35.0% to +49....
Median Home Sales Price, 2005




          $125,000 or higher
          $100,000 - $124,999
           $75,000 - $99,999
...
Median Home Sales Price Average
Annual Rate of Increase, 2000-2005




            8.0% or greater
            6.0% to 7.9...
Projected Median Home Sales Price
        Change, 2005-2015




            +125.0% to +220.0%
            +100.0% to +124...
What makes housing affordable?



When the monthly mortgage (principle,
interest, tax & insurance) or rent payment
plus ut...
What makes housing affordable?


If a household’s monthly rent or mortgage
payment comprises 30% or more of the
household ...
What makes housing affordable?


Strictly limiting monthly mortgage or rent
payments to less than 30% of income does
not n...
A Look at Income Sufficiency Using
        Montgomery County


Information on the chart to follow shows
the income suffici...
A Look at Income Sufficiency Using
         Montgomery County


Key to Understanding

 The professions’ salaries shown wou...
A Look at Income Sufficiency Using
         Montgomery County


Another Key to Understanding

 While homes in more outlyin...
Annual Income




$0
            $10,000
                                $20,000
                                         ...
Max. Affordable
Hairdresser
Hairdresser                  $42,099
                            $42,099    What constitutes a...
What about affordable
         rental property?


In Montgomery County, in 2004, 3,257
renters earn 50% or less than area ...
What about affordable
             rental property?

Maximum monthly
                        MONTGOMERY                   ...
Fair Market Rent is not always fair
Estimated Percent of Renters Unable to Afford Two-Bedroom FMR



      MONTGOMERY     ...
Where do cost-burdened renters reside?


               All Renter                          % Cost
               Househol...
Does cost burden discriminate?


     Percent of County Renters at 30-80% MFI by Race/Ethnic Group

                      ...
Is need in all areas identical?

               Renters with
               cost burden              % African            ...
Is cost burden the only problem?

     Percent of those Renters at 30-80% MFI with Housing Problems,
                     ...
Do home owners fare any better?

  Percent of County Home Owners at 30-80% MFI by Race/Ethnic Group

                     ...
How are they different?

  Percent of those Home Owners at 30-80% MFI with Housing Problems,
            Crowding and/or C...
Who is affected by “Affordability”?


The common perception is that only poor,
unemployed, or part-time workers cannot
“af...
Who is affected by “Affordability”?

A wide variety of residents are in need of affordable
housing including:

    municip...
Who is affected by “Affordability”?



Local businesses and employers are also
affected by a lack of affordable housing wh...
Cost burden significantly
      impacts the elderly


Housing affordability is a problem that
does not discriminate based ...
Cost burden significantly
     impacts the elderly

Percent of Elderly
                     MONTGOMERY                    ...
Low-income Households in Montgomery Co.

              RENTERS                   OWNERS
           Percent <50%MFI        ...
Knowing what we now know, how
   might the following impact
         Tennesseans?
Median Rent versus Median Income
                                     1970-2020
                          $65,000         ...
Median Home Value versus Median
                            Income 1970-2020
                    $140,000                 ...
Cost of a Median-Priced Home for a
   Median Income Family, 2005




            250.0% or greater
            200.0% to 2...
Cost of a Median-Priced Home for a
   Median Income Family, 2015




             250.0% or greater
             200.0% to...
A note about predicting the future


We cannot predict the future.

We can only project a possible future
based on what we...
A note about predicting the future

It is certain that the affordability of
housing is an issue of significant
importance ...
hank you very much for your attention
 If you have any questions after the presentation, feel free to contact me:

 Paul H...
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Future of Affordable Housing

  1. 1. The Future for Housing Affordability OR “Who can afford a crystal ball?!” Paul Henkel Asst. Director for Research, Planning and Technical Services
  2. 2. S N O TI EP C N IS C O Misconceptions about affordable M housing NIMBY, “Not In My Back Yard” • Is Unattractive • Drives down property values • Attracts only undesirable tenants • Only an urban/central city problem
  3. 3. #1 N O TI EP O N C Affordable Housing is Unattractive C IS M Efficient planning and design can actually lower both construction and maintenance costs. Quality design helps affordable housing to fit its context. City Design Center, APA Website
  4. 4. #2 N O TI EP O N C Affordable housing C M IS drives down property values Among working communities, the average value of owner-occupied houses is highest in those that have the most apartments. *,** * “The Vitality of America's Working Communities”, Harvard University’s Joint Center for Housing Studies, 2003. ** A working community is defined by having an average household income between 60% and 100% of AMI)
  5. 5. #2 N O TI EP O N C Affordable housing C M IS drives down property values Tax Credit properties do not have a negative impact on property values, as long as there is a dispersal rather than concentration of properties.* * “Low Income Housing Tax Credit Housing Developments And Property Values”, The Center for Urban Land Economics Research, Univ. of Wisconsin, 2002.
  6. 6. #2 N O TI EP O N C Affordable housing C M IS drives down property values The impacts of federally assisted housing on area property values depend largely upon*: 1. Characteristics of the neighborhood 2. Concentration of assisted housing units 3. Scale of the assisted housing facility. * “A Review of Existing Research on Effects of Federally Assisted Housing Programs on Neighboring Property Values”, College of Urban, Labor and Metropolitan Affairs, Wayne State University, 2002.
  7. 7. #3 N O EP TI Affordable housing C O N C attracts unwanted tenants IS M
  8. 8. #4 N O TI EP O N C Affordable housing C M IS is an Urban Problem The shortage of affordable housing may be greatest in cities, because populations are larger and often more evident. But rural and suburban areas also have a great need for affordable housing.
  9. 9. #4 N O TI EP O N C Affordable housing C M IS is an Urban Problem Rural % of Low Income % of Renter % of Median Renter Counties Homeownership Owner Households Households with Income Needed to (random) Rate with Cost-Burden Cost-Burden Afford 2-BR at FMR Bledsoe 81.7% 45.30% 27.8% 77.0% Clay 80.0% 49.20% 22.8% 106.0% Crockett 74.9% 51.70% 32.7% 67.0% Decatur 80.1% 41.80% 29.0% 80.0% Fentress 79.1% 51.90% 31.1% 104.0% Hancock 78.7% 37.50% 24.6% 170.0% Houston 77.0% 62.20% 26.1% 96.0% Jackson 80.8% 50.30% 20.8% 97.0% Lake 60.0% 62.20% 29.7% 114.0% Moore 83.7% 44.50% 21.0% 71.0%
  10. 10. What do we mean by “affordable housing”? It means housing available to low and moderate income people at a monthly cost that does not exceed 30% of their gross income.
  11. 11. What do we mean by “affordable housing”? It means housing available to the local workforce.
  12. 12. What do we mean by “affordable housing”? It means closing the gap between local wages and salaries and the going rate for a decent home.
  13. 13. What do we mean by “affordable housing”? It means strengthening the community by building a strong and diverse economic and social base.
  14. 14. What do we mean by “affordable housing”? It means improving the quality of life for all members of the community.
  15. 15. General Population Patterns
  16. 16. Population of Tennessee by County, 2005 300,000 – 910,000 100,000 – 299,999 50,000 – 99,999 20,000 – 49,999
  17. 17. Projected Population and Housing Stock in Tennessee, 2006-2026 7,600,000 4,000,000 2.24 persons per housing unit in 2006 7,200,000 Population 3,000,000 6,800,000 Housing 6,400,000 2,000,000 Stock 6,000,000 2.00 persons per housing unit in 2026 1,000,000 5,600,000 5,200,000 0 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 06 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
  18. 18. Counties with Slow Growth or Population Decline, 2005-2015 -1.0% to -9.0% Decline 0.0% to 4.9% Growth 5.0% Growth or greater
  19. 19. Counties with Moderate to High Population Growth, 2005-2015 15.0% to 42.0% Growth 5.0% to 14.9% Growth Lower than 5.0% Growth
  20. 20. Metro and non-Metro Areas by Projected Population Change 2005-2015 15.0% to 18.0% Growth 10.0% to 14.9% Growth 5.0% to 9.9% Growth Lower than 5.0% Growth
  21. 21. Metro Area Population Change, 2005-2025 1,422,544 Nashville MSA 2,006,891 655,400 Knoxville MSA 832,781 999,491 Memphis MSA 1,096,835 160,171 Clarksville MSA 220,413 130,575 Morristown MSA 163,428 Populations are listed 188,944 as total # of people Johnson City MSA 219,691 351,383 Chattanooga MSA 369,781 108,036 Cleveland MSA 124,646 110,857 Jackson MSA 124,945 2005 208,912 Kingsport-Bristol MSA 2025 219,032
  22. 22. non-Metro Population Change, 2005-2025 900,000 2005 800,000 2025 700,000 769,756 705,587 600,000 640,157 500,000 571,343 400,000 416,112 300,000 415,146 200,000 100,000 0 East Middle West Tennessee Tennessee Tennessee
  23. 23. Fatter Cats, 2005-2025 Nashville MSA 3.7% Changes $ Allocation Knoxville MSA based upon population 0.5% Clarksville MSA 0.3% East TN non-MSA 0.1% Morristown MSA 0.1% Cleveland MSA -0.1% Jackson MSA -0.1% Johnson City MSA -0.1% Middle TN non-MSA -0.1% Changes weight of Kingsport-Bristol MSA -0.5% political pull Chattanooga MSA -0.8% West TN non-MSA -1.2% Memphis MSA -1.7% -5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0%
  24. 24. Components of Population Change
  25. 25. Components of Population Growth in Tennessee, 2001-2005 45,000 Natural Increase 40,000 International Migration 35,000 Domestic Migration 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
  26. 26. Impact of Recent Movers by County, 2001-2005 Out-flow of Recent Movers 0.0% - 2.9% Recent Movers 3.0% - 5.9% Recent Movers 6.0% or greater Recent Movers
  27. 27. Impact of Recent Movers by Metro and non-Metro Areas, 2001-2005 Out-flow of Recent Movers 0.0% - 1.9% Recent Movers 2.0% - 3.9% Recent Movers 4.0% or greater Recent Movers
  28. 28. Tennessee's Population in 2005 by Race-Ethnicity 6,000,000 4,809,644 5,000,000 4,000,000 Population 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,002,636 1,000,000 180,575 0 White Afr. American Hispanic
  29. 29. One Scenario for Population Growth by Race-Ethnicity in Tennessee 7,000,000 5,937,029 6,000,000 5,561,427 5,171,894 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,506,508 1,136,690 1,288,668 1,000,000 1,442,746 375,277 779,913 0 2006 2007 2008 2011 2012 2015 2016 2019 2020 2023 2024 2027 2028 2031 2032 2005 2009 2010 2013 2014 2017 2018 2021 2022 2025 2026 2029 2030 2033 2034
  30. 30. African American Population of Tennessee by Age and Sex, 2000-2005 Females Males 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 Future 55-59 Elderly 50-54 Housing 45-49 Need 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 <5 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000
  31. 31. Hispanic Population of Tennessee by Age and Sex, 2000-2005 Males Females 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 New 20-24 Household 15-19 Formation 10-14 Population 5-9 Growth <5 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
  32. 32. Trends in 1-person Owner Households in Tennessee, 1960-2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1,800,000 1,600,000 Owner-occupied Households 1-person Owner-occupied Owner Households 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 7.40% 11.00% 14.90% 18.60% 20.80% Percent 1-person
  33. 33. Trends in 1-person Renter Households in Tennessee, 1960-2000 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 800,000 Renter-Occupied Households 700,000 1-person Renter-occupied Owner Households 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 13.70% 21.20% 32.30% 35.10% 37.60% Percent 1-person
  34. 34. Median Household Income by County, 2005 $55,000 or higher $50,000 - $54,999 $45,000 - $49,999 $28.700 - $44,999
  35. 35. Projected Household Income Change by County, 2005-2015 +50.0% to +93.9% +35.0% to +49.9% +20.0% to +34.9% - 5.0% to +19.9%
  36. 36. Median Home Sales Price, 2005 $125,000 or higher $100,000 - $124,999 $75,000 - $99,999 $50,700 - $74,999
  37. 37. Median Home Sales Price Average Annual Rate of Increase, 2000-2005 8.0% or greater 6.0% to 7.9% 4.0% to 5.9% 0.0% to 3.9%
  38. 38. Projected Median Home Sales Price Change, 2005-2015 +125.0% to +220.0% +100.0% to +124.9% +75.0% to +99.9% 0.0% to +74.9%
  39. 39. What makes housing affordable? When the monthly mortgage (principle, interest, tax & insurance) or rent payment plus utilities comprise less than 30% of the household gross income.
  40. 40. What makes housing affordable? If a household’s monthly rent or mortgage payment comprises 30% or more of the household income, the household is considered to be “cost burdened”.
  41. 41. What makes housing affordable? Strictly limiting monthly mortgage or rent payments to less than 30% of income does not necessarily mean that the remaining income is sufficient to meet an individual family’s needs.
  42. 42. A Look at Income Sufficiency Using Montgomery County Information on the chart to follow shows the income sufficiency of average annual salaries of various professions in Montgomery County.
  43. 43. A Look at Income Sufficiency Using Montgomery County Key to Understanding The professions’ salaries shown would be single income households, and do not represent the innumerable variations in household earning and financial coping strategies.
  44. 44. A Look at Income Sufficiency Using Montgomery County Another Key to Understanding While homes in more outlying areas (relative to a city center) are initially more affordable, monthly commuting expenses, both in money and time, can quickly reduce the relative “affordability” of these homes.
  45. 45. Annual Income $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 Hairdresser $60,000 Cashier Preschool Teacher Retail Salesperson EMT Nurse Aide Medical Assistant Construction Laborer Social Worker Bus Drivers Army E-2 (2 yr service) Carpenter Police Officer Electrician Real Estate Broker in Clarksville, TN Teachers Army E-5 (8 yr service) Accountant Army O-1 (2 yr service) $0 $95,200 $129,900 $30,000 $60,000 $90,000 Affordable Home Price $120,000 $150,000 $180,000 Affordability of a Median-priced Home 2004 2004 New Home Median Price Median Price Existing Home
  46. 46. Max. Affordable Hairdresser Hairdresser $42,099 $42,099 What constitutes an Cashier $44,782 Preschool Teacher $47,273 affordable home in Retail Salesperson $56,383 Montgomery Co.? EMT $59,272 Median-priced, Existing Home in Median-priced, affordable at Existing Home New Home in Existing Home affordable at Nurse Aide $62,397 <30% cost burden Montgomery Co. <30% cost burden Medical Assistant Medical Assistant $64,378 $64,378 Construction Laborer $69,651 Social Worker $71,529 Bus Drivers $79,958 Army Enlisted $86,611 Carpenter $87,410 Police Officer Police Officer $92,954 $92,954 Electrician $96,860 $42,000, 3br/2ba, 891 ft2ft $130,500, 3br/2ba, 1780 ft2 2 $64,900, 3br/2ba, 1607 $94,500, 3br/1ba, 1464 Real Estate Broker $103,726 Teachers $121,034 Army NCO $125,790 Accountant Accountant $126,983 $126,983 Army Officer $127,296
  47. 47. What about affordable rental property? In Montgomery County, in 2004, 3,257 renters earn 50% or less than area median income.
  48. 48. What about affordable rental property? Maximum monthly MONTGOMERY $583 housing cost for a family at 50% of Bradley $591 median income. $672 Anything more is cost Knox burden. Rutherford $748 Washington $552 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800
  49. 49. Fair Market Rent is not always fair Estimated Percent of Renters Unable to Afford Two-Bedroom FMR MONTGOMERY 37% Bradley 43% Knox 47% Rutherford 45% Washington 44% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
  50. 50. Where do cost-burdened renters reside? All Renter % Cost Household % Cost Number Burdened s Burdened ≤80% AMI ≤80% AMI MONTGOMERY 17,645 34.1% 8,495 60.7% Bradley 10,780 35.2% 6,750 53.1% Knox 52,280 37.5% 33,985 54.6% Rutherford 20,035 42.2% 13,250 60.2% Washington 14,075 36.4% 8,520 55.8% Everywhere.
  51. 51. Does cost burden discriminate? Percent of County Renters at 30-80% MFI by Race/Ethnic Group White Black Hispanic MONTGOMERY Co. 33.7% 36.4% 42.4% Bradley County 39.7% 44.9% 45.6% Knox County 37.9% 36.4% 41.3% Rutherford County 41.4% 46.5% 47.2% Washington County 37.2% 35.4% 64.0% Nope.
  52. 52. Is need in all areas identical? Renters with cost burden % African % Other (≤80% AMI) % White American % Hispanic Minority MONTGOMERY 5,154 56.0% 33.1% 6.4% 4.5% Bradley 3,589 87.1% 7.4% 3.3% 2.2% Knox 18,555 78.1% 16.0% 1.7% 4.2% Rutherford 7,962 77.7% 14.1% 5.0% 3.2% Washington 4,756 89.0% 6.2% 2.5% 2.2% Not at all.
  53. 53. Is cost burden the only problem? Percent of those Renters at 30-80% MFI with Housing Problems, Crowding and/or Cost-burden White Black Hispanic MONTGOMERY Co. 54.8% 58.5% 63.0% Bradley County 44.8% 50.0% 41.9% Knox County 48.5% 40.8% 59.4% Rutherford County 52.5% 44.9% 56.6% Washington County 49.8% 50.0% 51.4% No. Multiple problem issues are common.
  54. 54. Do home owners fare any better? Percent of County Home Owners at 30-80% MFI by Race/Ethnic Group White Black Hispanic MONTGOMERY Co. 17.7% 22.8% 19.1% Bradley County 23.5% 33.7% 43.9% Knox County 22.2% 24.1% 30.8% Rutherford County 21.0% 23.9% 29.6% Washington County 22.3% 20.0% 16.2% Yes. But they have some of the same, and some different difficulties.
  55. 55. How are they different? Percent of those Home Owners at 30-80% MFI with Housing Problems, Crowding and/or Cost-burden by Race/Ethnic Group White Black Hispanic MONTGOMERY Co. 51.2% 63.8% 47.2% Bradley County 37.5% 50.0% 33.3% Knox County 39.7% 55.3% 40.6% Rutherford County 45.4% 57.2% 47.8% Washington County 40.6% 67.2% 86.2%
  56. 56. Who is affected by “Affordability”? The common perception is that only poor, unemployed, or part-time workers cannot “afford” housing. Yes, it is true that these groups are most severely impacted. But housing affordability is not just a problem of lower-income groups.
  57. 57. Who is affected by “Affordability”? A wide variety of residents are in need of affordable housing including: municipal employees: teachers and police officers service-industry labor force: hairdressers, shop clerks, travel agents; …All of whom may be working full time but whose income is not sufficient to afford quality housing in the local area.
  58. 58. Who is affected by “Affordability”? Local businesses and employers are also affected by a lack of affordable housing which can cause an unstable, constantly shifting local labor force.
  59. 59. Cost burden significantly impacts the elderly Housing affordability is a problem that does not discriminate based on age. Many elderly households in Tennessee have income levels that are lower than 30% of median family income.
  60. 60. Cost burden significantly impacts the elderly Percent of Elderly MONTGOMERY 26% Households with Incomes less than Bradley 35% 30% of the Area Median Income Knox 27% Rutherford 25% Washington 34% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
  61. 61. Low-income Households in Montgomery Co. RENTERS OWNERS Percent <50%MFI Percent <50%MFI Ft. Campbell Ft. Campbell
  62. 62. Knowing what we now know, how might the following impact Tennesseans?
  63. 63. Median Rent versus Median Income 1970-2020 $65,000 $800 Median Household Income $52,000 Median Gross Rent $600 Tennessee Median Rent $39,000 $400 $26,000 Tennessee Median Income $200 $13,000 $0 p $0 p 70 80 90 00 10 20 19 19 19 20 20 20
  64. 64. Median Home Value versus Median Income 1970-2020 $140,000 $75,000 Median Household Income $120,000 Median Home Value $60,000 $100,000 Tennessee Median $80,000 Home Value $45,000 $60,000 $30,000 $40,000 Tennessee Median Income $15,000 $20,000 $0 p $0 p 70 80 90 00 10 20 19 19 19 20 20 20
  65. 65. Cost of a Median-Priced Home for a Median Income Family, 2005 250.0% or greater 200.0% to 249.9% 175.0% to 199.9% 130.0% to 174.9%
  66. 66. Cost of a Median-Priced Home for a Median Income Family, 2015 250.0% or greater 200.0% to 249.9% 175.0% to 199.9% 130.0% to 174.9%
  67. 67. A note about predicting the future We cannot predict the future. We can only project a possible future based on what we know about the past and present.
  68. 68. A note about predicting the future It is certain that the affordability of housing is an issue of significant importance today. Evidence points to the fact that it will become more, rather than less significant for the average family in Tennessee in the immediate future.
  69. 69. hank you very much for your attention If you have any questions after the presentation, feel free to contact me: Paul Henkel, M.Soc.Sc., A.B.D. Asst. Director for Research, Planning and Technical Services Tennessee Housing Development Agency 404 James Robertson Parkway, Suite 1114 Nashville, Tennessee 37243 (615) 741-2400 paul.henkel@state.tn.us www.tennessee.gov/thda
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