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Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics
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Algorithmic Attribution - Steve Latham | Encore Media Metrics

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Algorithmic Attribution presentation made by Steve Latham at SES Chicago in November 2013.

Algorithmic Attribution presentation made by Steve Latham at SES Chicago in November 2013.

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  • 1. Mul$-­‐touch  A,ribu$on     A  Deeper  Dive  for  Digital  Marketers   Steve  Latham   Encore  Media  Metrics   Found  and  ceo   Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 Chicago  •  November    4–7,  2013  •  #SESCHI  @SESConf  
  • 2. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Agenda q  q  q  q  Introducing Algorithmic Attribution Review reports Where we are today Implications for marketers (btw these slides are posted http://Attribution101.com ) Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 3. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Defining “Attribution” Two approaches to Attribution modeling: q  Fixed: first, last, U-shaped, time decay, user-based §  Pros: relatively easy, very low cost §  Cons: subject to bias, treats all impressions and clicks the same q  Algorithmic: using data science* to allocate fractional credit §  Pros: more accurate insights è better results over time §  Cons: cost and complexity *algorithmic: using machine learning and statistical (probability-based) algorithms to allocate fractional credit across assist impressions and clicks Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 4. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Conversion  Path  Analysis   Conversion)Path)Analysis Engagement)Overview Sources)of)Visits)within)Conversion)Paths)========> IMPs All Converters (100%) Visits Display Direct0Nav Nat.0Search Paid0Search Referring 5.2 3.0 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.7 54.2% 45.8% 18.0% 14.0% 26.7% 18.0% 23.0% Cluster 4 (45%) 1.5 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 Cluster 6 (21%) 4.7 3.8 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 1.8 0.3 0.2 Relative Contribution Cluster 3 (15%) Conversion Path 6.1 Cluster 8 (13%) q  q  q  4.0 1.5 analysis shows: Converters were 4.8 exposed 0.0 5.2 display ads 2.0 to 3.9 1.2 0.1 Converters visited 3.0 times before taking action Paid and natural search comprise 45% of clicks in path Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham 1.3
  • 5. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Channel Attribution The impact can be dramatic (last-click vs. attributable) •  •  Display: 30-60% drop in CPA is typical PPC: 10-25% drop in CPA is typical Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 6. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Keyword Attribution •  •  Last-click rewards Low-funnel terms (brand) Last-click penalizes Upper-funnel terms (endemic, category, etc.) Keyword acme5university acme acme5universities5new5york online5courses acme5learning online5university online5university5courses acme5learning5new5york adelaide5university study5online online5study distance5education online5learning short5courses5online online5university5new5york university5courses university distance5education5victoria charles5sturt5university acme.edu.au courses online5uni correspondence5courses Copyrighted material may www.acme.edu.au online5learning5new5york Clicks not be Converting Clicks 14,435 2,146 906 831 802 320 278 265 208 196 180 170 163 158 146 105 99 95 84 79 77 75 72 shared. 72 71 © Assist Clicks 295 62 24 2 11 4 4 5 1 1 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 Encore 6 1 Actions Influenced 696 147 31 7 13 2 3 6 0 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 5 1 2 3 4 2 4 Media 5 0 Spend 534 $5,517 112 $693 33 $364 5 $3,805 15 $373 4 $479 5 $881 7 $104 1 $162 2 $877 5 $739 1 $611 1 $446 0 $536 3 $212 1 $183 3 $249 0 $149 2 $153 3 $17 2 $166 1 $96 2 $276 Metrics 2013 7 $22 1 $122 Cost5Per Click(CPC) $0.38 $0.32 $0.40 $4.58 $0.46 $1.50 $3.17 $0.39 $0.78 $4.47 $4.11 $3.60 $2.74 $3.39 $1.45 $1.75 $2.51 $1.57 $1.82 $0.21 $2.16 $1.28 $3.84 $0.30 $1.71 CPA5(Last Click) $18.70 $11.17 $15.18 $1902.41 $33.89 $119.86 $220.22 $20.74 $161.96 $876.69 $184.84 $0.00 $445.97 $0.00 $70.72 $0.00 $248.65 $0.00 $153.28 $8.49 $0.00 $0.00 $276.20 $3.61 $121.70 CPA (Attrib.) $10.34 $6.16 $10.98 $839.67 $25.32 $112.50 $188.95 $15.41 $187.15 $355.56 $158.60 $764.08 $352.41 $1340.44 $62.47 $152.68 $86.77 $372.03 $92.03 $5.79 $103.82 $120.17 $112.02 $3.01 $140.63 CPA5(% Change) .45% .45% .28% .56% .25% .6% .14% .26% 16% .59% .14% NA .21% NA .12% NA .65% NA .40% .32% NA NA .59% .17% 16% Rating Role Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Laggard Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Winner Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Laggard Closer Challenger Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Challenger Contributor @stevelatham Winner Closer Challenger Closer
  • 7. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Keyword Attribution •  •  Measuring attributed Actions and CPA Understanding role (contributor vs. closer) Keyword acme5university acme acme5universities5new5york online5courses acme5learning online5university online5university5courses acme5learning5new5york adelaide5university study5online online5study distance5education online5learning short5courses5online online5university5new5york university5courses university distance5education5victoria charles5sturt5university acme.edu.au courses online5uni correspondence5courses Copyrighted material may www.acme.edu.au online5learning5new5york Clicks not be Converting Clicks 14,435 2,146 906 831 802 320 278 265 208 196 180 170 163 158 146 105 99 95 84 79 77 75 72 shared. 72 71 © Assist Clicks 295 62 24 2 11 4 4 5 1 1 4 0 1 0 3 0 1 0 1 2 0 0 1 Encore 6 1 Actions Influenced 696 147 31 7 13 2 3 6 0 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 5 1 2 3 4 2 4 Media 5 0 Spend 534 $5,517 112 $693 33 $364 5 $3,805 15 $373 4 $479 5 $881 7 $104 1 $162 2 $877 5 $739 1 $611 1 $446 0 $536 3 $212 1 $183 3 $249 0 $149 2 $153 3 $17 2 $166 1 $96 2 2013 $276 Metrics 7 $22 1 $122 Cost5Per Click(CPC) $0.38 $0.32 $0.40 $4.58 $0.46 $1.50 $3.17 $0.39 $0.78 $4.47 $4.11 $3.60 $2.74 $3.39 $1.45 $1.75 $2.51 $1.57 $1.82 $0.21 $2.16 $1.28 $3.84 $0.30 $1.71 CPA5(Last Click) $18.70 $11.17 $15.18 $1902.41 $33.89 $119.86 $220.22 $20.74 $161.96 $876.69 $184.84 $0.00 $445.97 $0.00 $70.72 $0.00 $248.65 $0.00 $153.28 $8.49 $0.00 $0.00 $276.20 $3.61 $121.70 CPA (Attrib.) $10.34 $6.16 $10.98 $839.67 $25.32 $112.50 $188.95 $15.41 $187.15 $355.56 $158.60 $764.08 $352.41 $1340.44 $62.47 $152.68 $86.77 $372.03 $92.03 $5.79 $103.82 $120.17 $112.02 $3.01 $140.63 CPA5(% Change) .45% .45% .28% .56% .25% .6% .14% .26% 16% .59% .14% NA .21% NA .12% NA .65% NA .40% .32% NA NA .59% .17% 16% Rating Role Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Winner Contributor Laggard Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Contributor Challenger Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Laggard Closer Winner Closer Challenger Closer Winner Contributor Laggard Closer Challenger Contributor Winner Contributor Challenger Closer Challenger Closer Challenger Contributor @stevelatham Winner Closer Challenger Closer
  • 8. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       How Insights are Applied Optimize budget across channels Ac#ons'By'Channel' Cost'per'Ac#on' 25,000 $70 Last Click –  Allocate based on attributed performance –  Inform more rational budget allocations Attributed 19,732& 20,000 $60 16,228&& 12,217&& 2,657& $20 4,452&& $10 1,683&& 0 Direct Nav Search Referrals Display $0 Display Takeaway: By Re-allocating budget to Winners and capping Frequency, ROS should improve by at least 41% Optimize within each channel Predictive Analysis Vendors –  Display •  •  •  •  Spend Leaders $58,841 % of Budget 39% ROS $9.03 Revenue $531,100 Pause under-performing ads (Laggards) 38% $3.26 $188,638 Challengers $57,876 Laggards $35,670 23% $1.34 $47,674 Re-allocate budget to Winners within each category $152,386 100% $5.04 $767,411 Reduce duplicate reach Total Reduce wasted frequency Proforma % Budget Proforma ROS Proforma Revenue Impact 62% $9.03 $853,059 $321,960 38% $3.91 $226,365 $37,728 0% n/a $0 ($47,674) $7.08 $1,079,424 $312,013 100% Relative Improvement Incremental Revenue 41% $312,013 –  Search: •  Adjust bids and budget for top performers (attributed) •  Prioritize SEO based on highest ROI keywords Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 &$36&& $40 $30 7,551& 4,640& 5,000 Last Click $50 15,000 10,000 &$58&& @stevelatham
  • 9. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Where We Are in the Adoption Curve Using Geoffrey Moore’s model from Crossing the Chasm… –  2008-2011 Innovators –  2012-2013 Early Adopters –  2014-2015 Early Majority –  2015- ? Late Majority Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 10. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Why This Matters to You q  q  Attribution is (finally) a priority §  Display media is growing share (largely from offline budget) §  Relationship between Display and Search is very clear §  Silos giving way to integrated planning and execution How you respond will impact relationship with your clients §  Transparency and openness will prevail §  Be proactive, strategic and supportive Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 11. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Takeaways 1. It’s Time to Revisit how we Measure Media –  Take a holistic (and realistic) view –  Position yourself as a thought leader, not a laggard 2. Don t Fear Attribution. Embrace it! –  Search (done correctly) should have the lowest CPA –  Search works best as part of an integrated approach 3. Some organizations may need to Walk before they Run –  Start with fixed weight attribution models –  Migrate to algorithmic when ready to take the next step Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 12. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       For More on Attribution •  POV: ”Which Approach is Best?” (Adotas): http://bit.ly/L1eLty •  Crossing the Chasm: the year of Attribution (Econsultancy): http://bit.ly/CrossingAttChasm •  Demystifying Attribution (Adotas): http://bit.ly/L1eLty •  PhD Targeting & First Grade Metrics (iMedia): http://bit.ly/tyjrWk •  Five Forces Driving Attribution (MediaPost): http://bitly.com/iyOLpT •  Video: “Explaining Attribution” (via @creatorbase) http://bit.ly/nyakk6 Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham
  • 13. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       Contact Info Encore Media Metrics Steve Latham, Founder and CEO 1633 Broadway, 5th Floor New York, NY 10019 W: 646.820.1006 http://EncoreMetrics.com Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 Steve@EncoreMetrics.com @SteveLatham @EncoreMetrics http://Attribution101.com @stevelatham
  • 14. Chicago  |  November  4–7,  2013  |  #SESCHI  |  @SESConf       About the Presenter Steve Latham is the founder and CEO of Encore Media Metrics http://encoremetrics.com which helps marketers optimize spend through better analytics. Serving leading brands and agencies around the globe, Encore s ondemand solution enables clients to achieve deeper insights into campaign performance while lowering the cost and complexity of online measurement. Steve is an accomplished speaker and thought leader, speaking frequently at industry events including Ad-Tech, OMMA Global, Search Engine Strategies, IAB Mixx, eMetrics Summit and others. Steve s articles have been published by Adotas, MediaPost, Online Media Daily, iMedia Connection, Marketing News and Bizjournals.com. Steve has been quoted in B2B Magazine, PR Week, Fortune and CNN.com. Steve received an MBA from Harvard Business School and a BBA from the University of Oklahoma. You can read Steve s blog at http://Attribution101.com http://twitter.com/stevelatham www.linkedin.com/in/stevelatham Copyrighted material may not be shared. © Encore Media Metrics 2013 @stevelatham

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