Tricumen The Bank Of The Future

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Tricumen looks at how investment banks might seek to improve their return on equity

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Tricumen The Bank Of The Future

  1. 1. Tricumen Approaches: The Bank of the FutureThe Bank of the Futuren New regulations and tighter margins have depressed ‘typical’ wholesale banking pre-tax RoE to about 19%; the outlook is not optimistic.n In our view, future leaders will operate a new wholesale banking model, one which utilises hitherto neglected synergies between the ‘traditional’ capital markets operations with other areas of the bank; and deploys effective Group-wide treasury and credit portfolio functions and risk management systems.n By integrating corporate coverage into the global banking and treasury services; and institutional coverage into global markets and security services, ‘our’ Bank of the Future could achieve pre-tax RoE of up to 25%, well above the current levels.Background& outlookFor investment banks, 2009 was a record year. As the 2008 financial crisis abated, it seemed asthough the pattern of growth seen from 2003 to 2007 had returned. In the event, 2009 proved achimera. Revenues initially surged on exceptional volumes, which were boosted by pent-up demandand lingering high margins from 2008; we estimate this added some US$42bn to the revenue pool ofthe 13 capital market players we cover on regular basis1. By the end of 2009, however, both volumesand margins retreated to ‘pre-boom’ levels. In subsequent years, revenues declined further as theEurozone crisis has rumbled on.On the whole, the industry has lowered operating expenses with haste (see our 4Q11 Results Updatefor a comparison of actual comp & benefits-versus-bonuses dynamics), cushioning the impact oncost/income ratios.The real medium-term challenge, however, is achieving a return on equity (RoE) in excess of the costof equity (CoE). Using our estimates of equity/capital aligned with the Basel 3 standards2, we estimatethat ‘our’ top quartile revenue generating players will achieve a FY12E RoE of 16% in their capitalmarkets divisions. Even for the leaders – all globals with diversified funding sources – this is only aprecious few percent above their CoE.The current business models at banks are, in our view, unlikely to facilitate significant revenuegrowth, in the near or medium term. Our current best-case FY13E scenario (which assumes a morebenign Eurozone environment) projects only an 11% y/y growth in capital markets revenues, mainlybecause we expect that areas of growth will be balanced by a reduction in margins brought about bystronger competition. Indeed, we would argue that in several product areas, incumbents are engagedin a ‘war of attrition’, hoping they will outlast their competitors.Market size and competitive forecasts Short Term Short Term Mid-Term Mid-Term Short Term Short Term Mid-Term Mid-Term Market Size Competition Market Size Competition Market Size Competition Market Size CompetitionDCM Bonds è ≈ ì ≈ FX G10 è ≈ è ≈DCM Loans è ≈ ì ¢ FX Em Mkts è ≈ ì ¢Corporate Derv ì ≈ ì ¢ Money Markets è ≈ î ≈ECM è ≈ ì ¢ Rates G10 Flow è ≈ ì ≈M&A è ≈ ì ≈ Rates Em Mkts ì ≈ è ¢EQ Cash High-Touch î ˜ è ˜ Rates Structured ì ˜ è ≈EQ Cash Electronic è ¢ ì ≈ Munis î ≈ è ≈EQ Derv Flow è ≈ ì ≈ Credit Flow è ≈ ì ≈Delta 1 è ≈ è ≈ Credit Em Mkts è ≈ ì ¢EQ Derv Exotic ì ˜ ì ≈ Credit Exotic ì ˜ î ˜Prime services è ≈ ì ≈ RMBS è ¢ î ≈Treasury Services ì ¢ ì ≈ CMBS î ˜ è ≈Security Services ì ¢ ì ˜ ABS ì ≈ è ≈ Commodities è ¢ ì ≈LegendMarket growing ì Competition decreasing ¢Market flat è Competition flat ≈Market shrinking î Competition increasing ˜Source: Tricumen. Note: Tricumen product definitions.1 Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays Capital, BNP Paribas, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Royal Bank of Scotland, Societe Generale, UBS.2 We actively monitor relevant regulatory developments and amend our models accordingly. 1/8 4 September 2012
  2. 2. Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the FutureReviewing the Wholesale Banking modelRacing to meet Basel 3 guidelines and prepare for the raft of incoming legislation – while battling adecline in revenues - banks have been fine-tuning the scope of their businesses. Thus far, the mostsubstantive moves have revolved around banks’ giving up some revenue (typically 10%) in return forreduced operating costs or lower risk-weighted assets. Such an approach, while valid, is fraught withrisks: exiting selective businesses can damage existing business synergies, and repeated ‘right-sizing’risks weakening staff morale and bringing about a cycle of decline.We think additional measures are required to boost RoE. Based on our ‘360o’ analysis of banks’profitability3, we believe that the eventual winners will operate a new wholesale banking model; onewhich utilises hitherto neglected synergies between the ‘traditional’ capital markets operations withother areas of the bank.For this report, we divided relevant banking activities of all 13 banks in our regular coverage into 28product areas/segments; and then analysed their revenue, pre-tax profit, operating cost/income, andRoE for each segment4. We extracted Top Quartile revenue producers and aligned profitabilitymeasures on the bank-by-bank basis5.Starting with a high-profile example: wholesale banking includes an often-overlooked division we call‘Treasury and Security Services’ (T&SS; known as ‘Transaction Banking’ at some banks). The chartbelow plots FY12E pre-tax operating profit (adjusted for exceptional items and DVA) for Top Quartileearners; and cost/income and pre-tax RoE. While a Top-Quartile investment bank’s pre-tax profitoutstrips that of a comparable T&SS competitor, the latter’s RoE is far superior to an Investment Bankor indeed any of its four main ‘typical’ divisions.Pre-Tax Profit and RoE: ‘Standard’ Top Quartile Bank (FY12E, US$m) 18% Primary 60% 16% -10% CapMkts & 70% Corp Lend Equity 111% Combined: 19% Standard TopQuartil 68% 21% e Bank 34% FICC 57% Treasury & 62% Sec Serv 10% Corp   71% Lend 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 0   1,000   2,000   3,000   4,000   5,000   6,000   7,000   -­‐1,000   0   1,000   2,000   3,000   4,000   5,000  Legend: Pre-Tax Operating Profit (US$m); Operating Cost/Income; Pre-Tax RoE.Source: Tricumen. Note: Tricumen product definitions.Our definition of T&SS encompasses two main components: Treasury Services (trade finance, investorservices, cash management) and Security Services (custody, fund administration, clearing andagented securities lending). In generic terms, these two components can service a corporate/issuerclient base and an institutional/investor client base. Both of these are client bases that are in turncovered by the banking and markets businesses in the Investment Bank. We believe that this leads toduplication in client coverage and that merging the Investment Bank and T&SS divisions could delivertangible cost savings and revenue synergies.Some banks are already moving in this direction, a trend that we expect will accelerate. In Jan-11,Deutsche Bank created a Capital Markets and Treasury Solutions (CMTS) unit, which providescorporate bank coverage, corporate treasury sales, and debt capital markets origination and corporatederivatives marketing. Goldman Sachs has combined equity execution, prime services, clearing andsecurities services. In July-12, J.P.Morgan announced the merger of its Investment Bank, Treasury &3 In Mar-11, we formally expanded our coverage to risk-related profitability. In addition to the ‘traditional’ revenue and headcount analysis. our ‘360o’ Performance Monitor suite now offers product-level normalised operating income and costs; pre-tax return on risk-weighted assets (RoRWA), Value-at-Risk (RoVaR) and Equity/Capital (RoE). All financials are fully reconciled against the published financial reports and regional reporting differences.4 We also analysed RoRWA for triangulation of the final results.5 In our view, merging best-in-class revenue and costs and RoE/RoRWA/RoVaR on a product-by-product basis would produce impressive, but quite unrealistic, results. 2/8 4 September 2012
  3. 3. Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the FutureSecurity Services, and the Global Corporate Bank divisions. The list of similar initiatives is growing, butin our view, these are early stages. The next wave of restructuring will likely prove much moretransformational.Looking at the Corporate segment first, we see much logic in aligning services around the two keybuying points at a company: strategic and tactical. The former includes M&A, equity origination andleveraged/acquisition finance; typically the province of the CEO or CFO. Tactical issues – includinghigh grade bond financing, loans, risk management through the use of derivatives, cash managementand trade finance - require a relatively frequent client contact and are usually managed by the client’sTreasurer.In our view, a coverage banker in the Investment Bank could focus purely on the CEO/CFO (strategic)relationship. This would, in turn, allow modest headcount reduction. Creating a similar coveragebanker for the Treasurer (tactical) relationship would allow unified delivery of Treasury Serviceproducts, debt financing and risk management, and reduce much duplicated coverage. It is early daysyet, but our research suggests such integration could boost revenues by 10% and reduce costs by upto 20%. The RoE for the new Corporate segment could reach 24% and 31% for the strategic andtactical segments, respectively.Corporate segment transformation Indicative Current Structure Possible Future Structure Treasury Corporate Banking Services Banking Banking Coverage / Coverage Sales Lending Strategic Tactical Cash CEO/CFO Treasurer M&A Management Asset Finance Coverage Coverage DCM & ABS Credit Risk M&A Cash ECM Trade Finance Management Execution Lending Management Leveraged ECM Corporate Finance Execution Derivatives Trade Finance Leveraged DCM Finance Asset Finance Corporate DerivativesLegend: Client & product teams; Client-facing teams; Product teams.Source: Tricumen. Note: Tricumen product definitions.In the Investor/Institutional segment, the most significant trend is the bifurcation of markets intohigh-touch and electronic/low-touch segments. In the electronic world, the current trend is towardsseamless integration of several services. A number of banks are marketing their electronic platformsas offering the best-value ‘end-to-end’ solution combining execution, clearing and settlement.Achieving efficiency in this area requires technology and operations excellence. Citi has already takena number of steps to develop straight-through processing solutions, and J.P.Morgan has merged someof its derivative middle office teams with the fund administration segment in its security services unit.The same unit provides (properly segregated) middle office support to the Investment Bank and anoutsourced service to investor clients.Electronic platforms are also increasingly prevalent in the delivery of retail structured products. UBSwas one of the first to provide private bankers with a platform that allowed them to customisestructured products to the needs of each high-net-worth (HNWI) client; others have since followedUBS’ lead and have opened such platforms up to other client segments. 3/8 4 September 2012
  4. 4. Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the FutureConsidering these trends together, we believe that a full integration of the Markets and SecurityServices areas is likely. Such an investor-focused group would comprise services/execution/productmanagement units, trading, high-touch sales, and platform sales. High-touch sales may well remainproduct-aligned, but will focus on the sale of flow products where the ‘story’ about the productmatters and structured products where bespoke solutions are required.The platform sales force is, in our view, likely to be more generalist and therefore client-aligned. Forexample, a team focused on hedge funds could market electronic trading, prime brokerage, clearingand fund administration solutions. In the chart below, we outline indicative organisational structuresfor the current and possible future states.Under this approach, we believe an integrated electronic offering would yield pre-tax profit synergiesin excess of 20%, much of it derived from savings achieved by a reduction in sales headcount andoperational efficiency gains. Our research suggests that a Top Quartile (by revenue) electronic playercould achieve RoE in excess of 40%, driven by cash equity, FX and certain retail/HNWI revenues. Thehigh touch business would be much less attractive (see ‘Pre-tax Profit and RoE chart overleaf), albeitlargely due to the high cost of the full-scale high-touch cash equity business6.Institutional segment transformation Indicative Current Structure Possible Future Structure Security Markets Services Markets Client Trading/Risk Services/ High Touch Platform Fixed Income Equities Coverage Management Execution Sales Sales Fixed Income Securities High Touch Sales Cash Equities Lending Flow Macro E Platforms Macro Hedge Funds Prime Equity Services High Touch Asset FX Trading Derivatives Custody Flow Credit Credit Managers Execution Prime High Touch Rates Trading Services Clearing Flow Equity Clearing Equity Retail/HNWI Credit Exotics & Trading Fund Admin Structuring Fund Admin CustodyLegend: Client & product teams; Client-facing teams; Product teams.Source: Tricumen. Note: Tricumen product definitions.Not all markets products fit neatly into this model; there are a number of businesses that should betreated differently due to their unique characteristics. We classify these products ‘Esoteric’; theyinclude commodities (where serving both commodity ‘producer-to-user’ clients and investor clients isessential), distressed debt (where banks often act more as a principal than a market maker) andmortgages (where integration of trading, origination, and acting as a principal is required). Whilethese products are often capital-intensive, top players tend to have less competition, and the resultantRoE could comfortably exceed 20%.A final component that will be vital to delivering a high RoE for wholesale banking is efficient fundingand risk management. This highlights the role of the Group Treasury function in maximising fundinglevels, and the need for a credit portfolio/CVA trading group that covers the full breadth of wholesalebanking and can optimise credit costs across derivative counterparty and loan risk. More generally,unified systems and processes are essential in managing the market, liquidity and reputational risk.Trading losses in recent years provided plenty of evidence how one poorly managed position canimpact the wider Group’s profitability.6 See our “EMEA Equities: the resilience of ‘low touch’ “, the summarised version of which we placed on our website in June-12. 4/8 4 September 2012
  5. 5. Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the Future‘Bank of the Future’In conclusion, our view is that banks that manage to integrate and align their offering aroundcorporate and investor clients will have an advantage over their peers and will be able to deliveroverall pre-tax RoE that is up to 6% higher than the current levels. The chart below shows our mostoptimistic scenario for our wholesale ‘Bank of the Future’.Pre-Tax Profit & RoE:‘Bank of the Future’ (FY13/14E, US$m) vs ‘Standard’ Top Quartile Bank (FY12E, US$m) 19% 24% Combined: Strategic 77% Standard Top 68% Quartile Bank 31% Tactical 50% Synergies  &   41% Low-­‐Touch 48% Growth 6% High-­‐Touch 89% Combined: 25% Bank of the 61% Future Top 23% Quartile Esoteric 48% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 0   1,000   2,000   3,000   4,000   5,000   6,000  Legend: Pre-Tax Operating Profit (US$m); Operating Cost/Income; Pre-Tax RoE.Source: Tricumen. Note: Tricumen product definitions. 5/8 4 September 2012
  6. 6. Wholesale( Banking( Treasury(&( Corp.(&(Inv.( Security( Bank( Services( Security( Treasury( Banking( Markets( Services( Services( Investment( Corporate( Client( Banking( Banking( Fixed(Income( Equi?es( Coverage( Coverage/Sales(6/8 Fixed(Income( Equity( Securi?es( Cash( Coverage( Lending( FX(Trading( Rates(Trading( Credit(Trading( Sales( Cash(Equi?es( Deriva?ves( Prime(Services( Lending( Management( Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the Future Sales(&(Sales( M&A( Asset(Finance( Flow(Rates( Flow(Credit( Credit(Sales( Trading( Sales( Custody( Trade(Finance( Credit(Risk( ECM( Management( Exo?c(Rates( Exo?c(Credit( Macro(Sales( Trading( Flow(Trading( Clearing( Leveraged( Structured( Electronic( Finance( Sales( Equi?es( Exo?c(Trading( Fund(Admin( Appendix 1: Typical Current Organisational Structure of a Wholesale Bank DCM( Corporate( Deriva?ves(4 September 2012
  7. 7. Wholesale( Banking( Func=ons( Esoteric( Business( Treasury/ Banking( Markets( Funding( Groups( Commodity( Services(/( Sales(&( Credit(Risk( Strategic( Tac=cal( S&T( Trading( Execu=on( Research( PlaLorm(Sales( Management( CEO/CFO( M&A( Treasurer( Distressed( High(Touch( Credit( Coverage( Execu=on( Coverage( DCM(&(ABS( Debt( Flow(Macro( E(PlaLorms( Macro( Hedge(Funds( PorLolio(7/8 ECM( Leveraged( Corporate( High(Touch( Asset( Execu=on( Finance( Lending( Deriva=ves( Life(Finance( Flow(Credit( Prime(Services( Credit( Managers( Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the Future Cash( High(Touch( Management( Trade(Finance( Municipals( Flow(Equity( Clearing( Equity( Retail/HNWI( Exo=cs(&( Asset(Finance( MBS( Fund(Admin( Appendix 2: Possible Bank of the Future Organisational Structure Structuring( Prop/Principal( Investments( Custody(4 September 2012
  8. 8. Tricumen Approaches: Bank of the FutureNotes & CaveatsThis report and the information contained herein may not be reproduced or distributed in the whole or in part without the priorwritten consent of Tricumen Limited. Such consent is often given provided that the information released does not prejudiceTricumen Limited’s business or compromise the company’s ability to analyse the financial markets.Tricumen Limited has used all reasonable care in writing, editing and presenting the information found in this report. Allreasonable effort has been made to ensure the information supplied is accurate and not misleading. For the purposes of cross-market comparison, all numerical data is normalised in accordance to Tricumen Limited’s proprietary product classification andmay contain +/-10% margin of error.The information and commentary provided in this report has been compiled for informational purposes only. We recommendthat independent advice and enquiries should be sought before acting upon it. Readers should not rely on this information forlegal, accounting, investment, or similar purposes. No part of this report constitutes investment advice, any form ofrecommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any instrument or to engage in any trading or investment activity or strategy.Tricumen Limited does not provide investment advice or personal recommendation, nor will it be deemed to have done so.Tricumen Limited makes no representation, guarantee or warranty as to the suitability, accuracy or completeness of the reportor the information therein. Tricumen Limited assumes no responsibility for information contained in this report and disclaims allliability arising from negligence or otherwise in respect of such information.Tricumen Limited is not liable for any damages arising in contract, tort or otherwise from the use of or inability to use thisreport or any material contained in it, or from any action or decision taken as a result of using the report. 8/8 4 September 2012

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