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AHS Hotel Market Outlook Q1 2012 Summary
 

AHS Hotel Market Outlook Q1 2012 Summary

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AHS Advisory presents our forecasts for hotel occupancy, average rate and RevPAR movements in Australia for the next three years

AHS Advisory presents our forecasts for hotel occupancy, average rate and RevPAR movements in Australia for the next three years

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    AHS Hotel Market Outlook Q1 2012 Summary AHS Hotel Market Outlook Q1 2012 Summary Presentation Transcript

    • AHS Hotel Market Outlook Australian Key cities Q1 2012 © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting
    • AHS International Arrivals and Departures10,000,000 9,000,000 8,000,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 0-1,000,000-2,000,000-3,000,000 Mar-11 Mar-83 Mar-84 Mar-85 Mar-86 Mar-87 Mar-88 Mar-89 Mar-90 Mar-91 Mar-92 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Mar-16 Residents Departing Tourists Arriving Net Tourist Exchange © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting
    • 50.0% 52.0% 54.0% 56.0% 58.0% 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 AHS Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Room Rate trend (RHS) Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 RevPAR trend (RHS) Sep-12 All Australia – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140 $160 $180 $200
    • 68.0% 70.0% 72.0% 74.0% 76.0% 78.0% 80.0% 82.0% 84.0% 86.0% 88.0% 90.0% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 AHS Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Room Rate trend (RHS) Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 RevPAR trend (RHS) Sep-12 Mar-13 Sydney Inner – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 $300 $325
    • AHS Melbourne Inner/Sbnk/Dlds– Occ% / Rate / RevPAR90.0% $32588.0% $30086.0% $27584.0% $25082.0% $22580.0% $20078.0% $17576.0% $15074.0% $12572.0% $10070.0% $7568.0% $5066.0% $25 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS) © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting
    • 60.0% 62.5% 65.0% 67.5% 70.0% 72.5% 75.0% 77.5% 80.0% 82.5% 85.0% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 AHS Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Room Rate trend (RHS) Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 RevPAR trend (RHS) Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Brisbane City – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250
    • 52.5% 55.0% 57.5% 60.0% 62.5% 65.0% 67.5% 70.0% 72.5% 75.0% 77.5% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 AHS Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Room Rate trend (RHS) Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 RevPAR trend (RHS) Mar-12 Gold Coast – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250
    • AHS TNQ – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR75.0% $21072.5% $19570.0% $18067.5% $16565.0% $15062.5% $13560.0% $12057.5% $10555.0% $9052.5% $7550.0% $6047.5% $4545.0% $3042.5% $1540.0% $0 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS) © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting
    • 55.0% 57.5% 60.0% 62.5% 65.0% 67.5% 70.0% 72.5% 75.0% 77.5% 80.0% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 AHS Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Room Rate trend (RHS) Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 RevPAR trend RHS) Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Adelaide City – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250
    • AHS Perth Inner – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR92.5% $32590.0% $30087.5% $27585.0% $25082.5% $22580.0% $20077.5% $17575.0% $15072.5% $12570.0% $10067.5% $7565.0% $5062.5% $2560.0% $0 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS) © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting
    • 55.0% 57.5% 60.0% 62.5% 65.0% 67.5% 70.0% 72.5% 75.0% 77.5% 80.0% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 AHS Sep-94 Mar-95 Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Sep-99 Mar-00 Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Room Rate trend (RHS) Mar-06 Sep-06 Mar-07Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Canberra – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR RevPAR trend (RHS) Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250
    • AHS Darwin – Occ% / Rate / RevPAR85.0% $21082.5% $19580.0% $18077.5% $16575.0% $15072.5% $13570.0% $12067.5% $10565.0% $9062.5% $7560.0% $6057.5% $4555.0% $3052.5% $1550.0% $0 Mar-93 Mar-94 Mar-95 Mar-96 Mar-97 Mar-98 Mar-99 Mar-00 Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Sep-93 Sep-94 Sep-95 Sep-96 Sep-97 Sep-98 Sep-99 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 Sep-06 Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13 Sep-14 Room Occ% trend (LHS) Room Rate trend (RHS) RevPAR trend (RHS) © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting
    • 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 AHS Sydney Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Melbourne Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Brisbane Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Gold Coast Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 TNQ © AHS Advisory Mar-05 Sep-05 Comparison – Occ% Mar-06 Sep-06Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Mar-07 Adelaide Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Perth Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Canberra Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Darwin Mar-14 Sep-14
    • -14% -12% -10% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 AHS Mar-95 Sydney Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Melbourne Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Brisbane Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Gold Coast Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 TNQ © AHS Advisory Mar-05 Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Mar-07 Adelaide Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Perth Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Canberra Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Darwin Mar-14 Comparison – Average Room Rate Growth Sep-14
    • 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 50 60 70 80 90 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 AHS Sydney Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Melbourne Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Brisbane Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Gold Coast Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 TNQ Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Mar-07 Adelaide Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Perth Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Comparison – Average Room Rate Sep-11 Canberra Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Darwin Mar-14 Sep-14
    • 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 40 50 60 70 80 90 Mar-93 Sep-93 Mar-94 Sep-94 Mar-95 AHS Sydney Sep-95 Mar-96 Sep-96 Mar-97 Sep-97 Melbourne Mar-98 Sep-98 Mar-99 Sep-99 Mar-00 Brisbane Sep-00 Mar-01 Sep-01 Mar-02 Sep-02 Gold Coast Mar-03 Sep-03 Mar-04 Sep-04 TNQ Mar-05 © AHS Advisory Sep-05 Mar-06 Sep-06 Comparison – RevPARHospitality Real Estate & Consulting Mar-07 Adelaide Sep-07 Mar-08 Sep-08 Mar-09 Perth Sep-09 Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Canberra Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Darwin Mar-14 Sep-14
    • AHS AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting Sydney Rutger Smits Ron de Wit rutger@ahsadvisory.com ron@ahsadvisory.com 0414 414 513 0414 860 207 © AHS Advisory Hospitality Real Estate & Consulting