The document discusses clustering historical rates of spread from wildfires. It includes dendrograms and cluster orderings of progression rates from 47 fires grouped into different fuel and fire types. The clustering is used to analyze past fire data to explore fire characteristics and response for training, education, and setting expectations of fire behavior. Historical analysis of fire data can also help with fire situation awareness by querying for analogous past fires during unfolding wildfire events and calibrating fire models.
24. Using Knowledge from Observed Wildfires
Historical analysis / fire-ography (pyronography :-)
• Training and Education
– Use past fire data to explore fire characteristics and response
– Demonstrate the variability of fire qualities and fire conditions
• Expectations of fire behavior
• Community decisions on defensible spaces
• Fire situation awareness
– Query historical database of fire observations for likely analogs during
an unfolding wildfire event
– Create empirical models; aggregate characteristics of fire types
• Model Calibration
– Resource for tuning model parameters, and analyzing the possible
failures (and quantified uncertainty) of model predictions
Editor's Notes
(Gatt’s estimate based on large groups of the same value in the Progression dataset; you might not want to use this, Steve, depending)
||grad|| is gradient magnitude.
Silver is fire 28 in the current groups.
Intensity (z) is counts in the 50x50 grid over the axes x=(0,maxtime) y=(0,maxrate). If these were scaled the same in absolute intensity they’d be very difficult to see. But, to register the relative contribution, the “rel” quoted in the subplot titles shows the relative contribution of that fuel.
This is just clustering on the fuel 6 plot (from before – unordered image is in the talk dirif you want it). I tried stacking the rate vectors for all fuels, but there’s no visual coherence doing things that way.
The order is the Fuel6ClusterOrder.txt file I sent you.
For 47 relatively rich fire observations datasets from 2013,
Quick test on Anderson 13 Fuels from Landfire.gov
Progression rate derived from intperimeters.
e.g.fuel
