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1. By
RaviThomas

2.  Where are we coming from?
 Where are we now?
 Where are we going?

3. Where Are We Coming From?
The world is just discovering it yet
India’s growth story is NOT new.
She has been going strong for the
past 25 years!

5.  5,000 year old ancient civilization
 325 languages spoken – 1,652 dialects
 18 official languages
 29 states, 5 union territories
 3.28 million sq. kilometers - Area
 7,516 kilometers - Coastline
 1.3 Billion population.
 5600 dailies, 15000 weeklies and 20000 periodicals in 21
languages with a combined circulation of 142 million.
 Parliamentary form of Government
 Worlds largest democracy.
 Worlds 4th largest economy.
 World-class recognition in IT, bio-technology and space.
 Largest English speaking nation in the world.
 3rd largest standing army force, over 1.5Million strong.
 2nd largest pool of scientists and engineers in the World.
INDIA

6. India's per capita income is projected to soar by 10.4 per cent in 2013-14
as the country becomes a $1.7 trillion economy.

7. (%)
(Years)
Sources: 1900-1990: Angus Maddison (1995), Monitoring theWorld Economy, 1990-2000: Census of India (2001)
Population Growth is Slowing
1 billion Population of India: 24 Median age.
290,000 Number of engineers who graduate in India each year.

8. 900 million cell phone subscribers in India. 74.09 phones per 100 population
137 million Internet users in India. 11.4% internet users per 100 population

9. Indians are Younger than the World…
36
30
37 3839 39
44 44
USA China Russia UK
24
30
35
40
45
50
24
India
31
2000 2025

11. India is poised to
OVERTAKE Japan
to be the 3rd Largest Economy
India is the Fourth Largest Economy

13. India
 Domestic
 Services
 Consumption
HighTech (Capital
Intensive Industry)
Drivers of Growth
East and S.E. Asia
• Exports
• Manufacturing
• Investments
LowTech (Labor
Intensive Industry)

14. “Domestically Led”
Means:
 Insulation from global
downturn
 Less volatile
 Recovery from global
crisis faster
Implications of the India Model

15. India’s success is market-led while
China’s is state induced
Reasons for Success
The entrepreneur is at the center of
the India Model

16. Rise of Globally Competitive Indian Companies

17.  100 Indian companies have a Market Capital of
100 billion USD
 1,000 Indian companies have received foreign
institutional investment
 125 Fortune 500 companies have R&D in India
 390 Fortune 500 companies have outsourced
software development to India
 2% Bad Loans in India (v. 20% in China)
 80% credit goes to private sector (v. ~10% in
China)
India has aVibrant Private Sector

18. Elections
Pluralistic
Society
Freedom
Election Victory Celebrations

19. We have:
 Dynamic democracy with honest elections
 Free, lively media and press
 Independent Judiciary
 Rule of Law
Advantage India

20.  The economy grows at night
 Working to support
economies around the world
means there are people
‘always awake’ and working

22.  Open economy to trade and investment
 Dismantled control
 Lowered tariffs
 Dropped tax rates
 Broke public sector monopolies
 Divested government shares
 Introduced public-private partnership!
Key Reforms

23.  Remarkable– every government has
reformed (slowly) since 1991
 Slow reforms add up
 65 countries have undertaken the same
reforms– why did India become the second
fastest growing economy in the world?
 Unappreciated fact– rule of law
Understanding India’s Economic Success

25. Where are We Going?
 Base case post recovery is 7.5-8.5% GDP
growth
 Democracy will not permit more than 8%
unless you have aThatcher!
 1.5% of population growth & declining!
 Young & high skilled population
 Demographic dividend– growth will continue
beyond China

26. 2,100 3,050 5,800
16,800
37,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2000 2005 2020 2040 2066
On a ppp basis
Per Capita Income
($inThousands)
(Years)

27. Convergence in the 21st Century
 Why is convergence intuitive?
 Convergence didn’t happen in the 20th
century because the world was closed
 Returning to a world of equality prior to 1750
 Once again China and India will account for
45% of world’s GDP

28. 0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1980 2000 2010 2020 2040
8
22
32
50 50
IndiaTurning Into Middle Class
(Years)
(%)

29. The Show Will Go On!
 Infrastructure
 Improving via public-private partnerships
 Overcoming Fiscal deficit
 Strengthening Government Policies
 These changes have improved the show in
the past 25 years

30.  India got democracy before capitalism and
this has made all the difference
 Growth slower than China but surer
 An elephant at 8% growth is formidable!
 We have waited 3000 years for this moment
 India is more likely to preserve its way of life

31. 2nd fastest growing economy in the world
India Now in Overdrive
8% average annual growth for last 10 years

32. India Now in Overdrive

33. Attractive Investment Destination
India Now in Overdrive

34. Infrastructure
Investments
$500 billion USD in the
next 5 years
 Roads ($48bn
USD)
 Airports ($9bn
USD)
 Ports ($12bn USD)
 Power ($9bn USD)
Others
• Gas Pipelines
• -Telecom
• - Health and
Education
• Infrastructure
• - Urban Mass
Transport
• - UrbanWater
Supply, Solid
• Waste Management
India Now in Overdrive

35. Diversifying export basket
From large to medium to small
ExpandingTrade
M E D I A &
E NT E RT A I N M E NT
F I N A N C I A L S E RV I C E S
RETAIL
BUILDING & CONSTRUCTION
AVIATION
ARCHITECTURE

36. India’s Investment Abroad

38. Advanced Manufacturing
 Aviation
 Biotech, Health &Medical
 ICT
 Defense & Homeland
 Security
 Machinery & Equipment

39. Energy
Mining
Infrastructure
Advanced Manufacturing

40. Emerging Industries
 Automotive
 Environmental
 Equine, Sport &Recreation
 Retail and Franchise
 Marine
 Energy

41. Agriculture and Food
 Packaged Food
 Beverages
 Food Ingredients
 Agro-Business
 Machinery &
 Equipment
 Specialty Items
 Fresh Produce
 Wines
 Agro-expertise/Services

42. Services
 Education &Training
 Financial Services
 Professional Services
 Media and Entertainment

43. India – the Next Big Market
AreYou Ready?

44. THANK YOU
E-mail: ravithomas@tenacitygroup.us