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Poyry Asia Cut Size Paper Report

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The emergence of personal computers and office automation thirty years ago has led many to predict the onset of a "paperless" office. With the shift in consumer habits/behavior and the ever growing ...

The emergence of personal computers and office automation thirty years ago has led many to predict the onset of a "paperless" office. With the shift in consumer habits/behavior and the ever growing digital solutions (e.g. E-reader, smart phones, social media, etc.), what would the future hold for cut-size paper until 2025? Would challenges from digital solutions, e.g. the increased use of electronic filing over traditional hard copy in office environment, bring about the eventual demise of cut-size copy paper?

Pöyry has been actively following the developments within the paper industry, and is one of the most authoritative sources of knowledge regarding the future forecasts of paper demand globally. For this research, Pöyry research in seven countries(Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, India, Indonesia, China, Japan).

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Poyry Asia Cut Size Paper Report Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Asia: Cut-Size Paper Future – Is the “Paperless” Office Just Around the Corner?November, 2010
  • 2. OBJECTIVESThis multi-client study is to present an assessment of the likely development of the Asiancut-size paper market up to 2025.This report focus on: Market Overview & • To review the market overview and development Development • To provide an understanding of the cut-size paper value chain with its Value Chain Analysis competing value chain and hence potential impact on paper demand in Asia. • To examine the various drivers affecting cut-size paper and their impact onDriver Impact Assessment the competing value chain and hence potential impact on paper demand in Asia. Product Life Cycle Analysis • To examine the product life cycle of paper and its implications Cut-size Paper Demand • To construct a base case scenario of the most likely development of cut-size Forecast paper in the region Recommendations for • To give recommendations on how the industry needs to adapt to the current, Value Chain Players emergent and future value chains. 2
  • 3. CONTENTSThe key elements of the study are: Geographical market coverage is focused in the•Executive summary Asian region, with an in-depth review of:•Introduction to cut-size paper•Introduction to cut-size market •China •Macro-drivers & Geographically bundling •India •Market Trends •Indonesia •Cut-size paper supply •Japan•Value-chain analysis •Malaysia •Cut-size paper value chain •Singapore •Value Chain Dynamics •Thailand •Decision making criteria •Value chain competitiveness Japan•Driver impacts assessment China •Paper function/value/driver analysis •Technology Drivers India •Legal & political drivers Thailand •Business Drivers •Demographic & Social Drivers Malaysia•Product lifecycle assessment Singapore•Outlook for cut-size paper Indonesia•Recommendations and conclusions Pöyry is a global expert in consulting and engineering. We offer our clients in-depth industry expertise, innovative solutions and lifecycle engagement. Our knowledge extends across hydropower, oil and gas , power and heat, renewable energy, pulp and paper industry, chemical process industry, transportation, water and environment , and construction services.
  • 4. METHODOLOGYThis study will be the first-ever presentation of a comprehensive, in-depth and strategic review ofhow technology affects the cut-size Asian market and industry.PRIMARY DATA STRATEGIC EXPERT CONCLUSIONSCOLLECTION ASSESSMENT REVIEW AND OUTLOOK • Primary data • In-depth • Evaluation of • Strategic collection analysis of the the findings by conclusions to through in- primary input an industry- be presented depth and strategic leading panel in a graphic- interviews and assessment of of Pöyry rich document. site visits to the key experts in all The analysis complement questions for the key will deliver the the already the cut-size regions. Pöyry vast pool of paper markets perspective proprietary and industry. on the future Pöyry availability, knowledge players and competition. 4
  • 5. PREFACEASIA: CUT-SIZE PAPER FUTURE: IS THE “PAPERLESS OFFICE” JUSTAROUND THE CORNER?Pöyry Management Consulting has been actively following the developments in cut-size paper, and isone of the most authoritative sources of knowledge regarding the future forecasts of paper demandglobally.Asia today is, by far, the fastest-growing region in terms of cut-size consumption. We expect this tocontinue for at least the next few years but the long-term future remains unclear. Pöyry has thereforedecided to provide what is probably the first comprehensive strategic review of the future of cut-sizepaper in Asia to determine the most likely demand forecast by 2025, and the underlying reasons behindthis. We have also set out to answer two main questions: When will cut-size paper consumption in Asiabegin to decline?, and is the ”Paperless Office” around the corner?Throughout the summer of 2010, Pöyry interviewed more than 1 200 respondents, and conducted over50 face-to-face interviews across the region, to try to answer these questions. Our key experts withinpulp and paper have also analysed macro-economic factors, key drivers, end-uses, the productlifecycle, and the competing value chains.We trust this study will provide useful background and a point of reference, and invite you to contact usif you would like to investigate further business opportunities in the cut-size paper value chain.Pöyry Management ConsultingSingapore, November 2010 SAMPLE PAGE 5
  • 6. CONTENT PAGE Page Preface 3 Objectives and Methodology 6 List of Abbreviations 8 Key Messages 9 1 Introduction 18 2 Market Overview & Development 2.1 Macro-economic Drivers and Geographical Grouping 24 2.2 Market Trends 39 2.3 Cut-size Paper End-uses and Functions 46 2.4 Uncoated Woodfree & Cut-size Paper Supply 57 3 Value Chain Analysis 3.1 Cut-size Paper Value Chain 65 3.2 Value Chain Dynamics 73 3.3 End-user’s Decision Making Criteria 82 3.4 Evaluation of Competing Value Chains 88 3.5 Impact of Drivers to Value Chain Competitiveness 91 4 Driver Impacts Assessment 4.1 Technology Drivers 100 4.2 Legal & Political Drivers 114 4.3 Business Drivers 118 4.4 Demographic & Social Drivers 123 SAMPLE PAGE 6
  • 7. CONTENT PAGE (CON’T) Page 5 Product Life Cycle Analysis 5.1 Technology Development 133 5.2 Cut-size Paper Life Cycle in Developed Markets 136 5.3 Cut-size Paper Life Cycle in Selected Asian Countries 146 6 Cut-size Paper Demand Forecast in Asia Demand Forecasts 154 7 Recommendations for Value Chain Players Overall Summary 163 Appendices A Country Profile A.1 China 170 A.2 India 184 A.3 Japan 197 A.4 Southeast Asia 204 B Asia Poyry Panel 216 C Key Supplier Profile 236 D Macro-economic factor 241 E Capacity Expansion 254 F Legislation 256 G Data Source 260 H Glossary 263 SAMPLE PAGE 7
  • 8. KEY MESSAGES – ASIAN MACRO ECONOMY Forecast population growth• Macro-economic factors such as 5000 Million economic growth, population growth, increasing literacy and increasing usage 4000 of technology have direct influence on Rest of Asia the consumption of cut-size paper. The 3000 Japan Indonesia impact is mainly positive. 2000 India• The population grows at an average rate of 1.2%/a through 2025. 1000 China• Japan and China are the biggest 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 economies, whereas India and China Source: UN Population Prospects are expected to have the highest growth. Real GDP growth Long-term GDP growth rate is expected until 2025, %/a Forecast GDP growth to average 4.7%/a. 8 India China Indonesia• However, in more developed regions, 7 Other Asia Malaysia Singapore cut-size paper consumption per capita 6 has shown to decouple from GDP. This 5.2 Thailand 5 phenomenon is also expected to happen Ø 4.7 in the studied region, but peaking at a 4 7.6 7.4 lower consumption per capita. This is 3 due to the competition from electronic 4.8 4.6 4.2 4.2 devices. 2 Japan 1 1.3 0 Source: Concensus Forecast, Share of GDP in 2009, % Pöyry SAMPLE PAGE 8
  • 9. KEY MESSAGES – CUT-SIZE PAPER END-USES AND FUNCTIONS• Cut-size paper is mainly (60-65%) used for • Main functions of cut-size paper are archiving office (photocopying included) and home (copies for record purposes), sharing printing. Other end-uses are copying in copy (documents for reviewing) and learning (prints shops, invoices, e-tickets and manuals. for creation and reading).• Main end-users of cut-size paper are • The most used function for cut-size is archiving government offices, multinational and large (~40%), then sharing (~35%) and learning corporations and small and medium sized (~25%). companies. • Digitalisation will have different effects on each Cut-size Paper End-use Segments cut-size paper function but archiving is expected to experience the largest impact in MNC/ Large Government Corporations the next 15 years. offices (incl. 34% govt. schools and • Learning and sharing of documents in print health format will decline slower because of the centres) 37% current consumer preferences. Especially Small/ Medium sharing of information will increasingly move to enterprises electronic format during the next 15 years. 14% Individuals/ • In the learning purposes, paper still has good Printing/ SOHO functional properties for writing and drawing. 5% Copying shops 10% SAMPLE PAGE 9
  • 10. KEY MESSAGES – VALUE CHAINS• Cut-size paper and digital solutions are the • In Asia, the access to paper solution is much alternative value chains in fulfilling the need for easier than for the digital solution but in the archiving, sharing or learning purpose. future, this will slowly change along economic and social development, developing legislation• In the solution selection, the most important and price erosion of devices. The difference in decision-making criteria are access, legal solution accessibility between developing and requirements and economic benefits. developed countries is big. Functionality is also important. Environmental benefits or brand image are not considered as • According to our research, printing technologies significant. and devices have a positive impact on current paper consumption. The research also showed• There is no big difference in decision making that there are solutions that influence cut-size criteria between countries. consumption negatively. Such solutions include e.g. PDF, scan-to-email software and e-readers.Paper Value Chain Digital Value Chain Paper Mill • In order to have a major impact on current cut- Hardware Software size consumption patterns, the competing Provider Provider solutions need to be accessible, functional, cost Merchant effective, and legal in use. Content Wholesaler Provider Retailer Distributor End-user End-User SAMPLE PAGE 10
  • 11. KEY MESSAGES –PRODUCT LIFE CYCLE ANALYSIS• Cut-size paper in the developed market is in the • The main reasons for a decline in demand in the maturity stage of the product life cycle whereas USA after 2005, have been consumption trend in Asia, cut-size is in the growth stage. changes due to the growing impact of electronic media and changes in economic activity and non-• Cut-size paper consumption in developed farm unemployment. regions was growing modestly in the 2000s. The high demand until 2005 can be explained • In Asia, the economic growth, increasing business by economic growth, a slow learning activity and population growth are much faster curve/costs of digital archiving and current than in the developed countries. The growth is consumer preferences. estimated to continue strong next 15 years. • However in the future, access to technology, new technology platforms and above all, the adaptation to the new technologies is expected to be much Cut-size Paper Product Life Cycle faster in Asia than in the developed countries. Infancy Growth Maturity Decline Thus, this development will start to have faster negative impact on cut-size paper consumption and the regional maturity stage is reached around 2025 2025. Cut-size Cut-size • There are differences between countries as Asia USA Japan’s market is expected to move to declining 2010 2005  stage already in the coming years but Indian market is foreseen to grow beyond 2025. Time SAMPLE PAGE 11
  • 12. ORDER FORM ASIA: CUT-SIZE PAPER FUTURE – IS THE “PAPERLESS” OFFICE JUST AROUND THE CORNER? Step 1: Select Service Step 2: Select payment Step 3: Fill in your particularsTo order, please complete and Method of payment and delivery: Particulars:return the below form. Name ______________________ Multi-client Study – for Please invoice me. all subscribers (1 hard Position ______________________ copy and pdf. File): USD 22 000 Company ______________________ Enclose a cheque: (made payable to Pöyry Address ______________________ Management Consulting (Singapore) Pte Ltd) _____________________ Client Specific Section Direct bank transfer: Country ______________________ and Workshop( Optional): Nordea Bank Finland Plc, Quote on request Singapore Branch Phone ______________________ 3 Anson Road #22-01 Springleaf Tower Fax ______________________ Singapore 079909 Account number 5004851902 Email ______________________ Swift Address: NDEASGSGContact: Peter J Kahn or Ryoko SeePöyry Management Consulting (Singapore) Pte Ltd50 Raffles Place #38-05, Singapore Land Tower Singapore 048623 Tel: +65 6733 3331, Fax: +65 6734 6198E-mail: peter.kahn@poyry.com; ryoko.see@poyry.com