What is a complex project? An extract from a full course. Some thoughts to describe the difference between simple, complicated, complex and chaotic. Full course at https://googledrive.com/host/0B_yTglNV0qf-Q2p0NW44eFhEU1k

1. Leading Complex Projects
 Simon Harris, PMP,
CGEIT, IPMA-D, P2rp,
MoRrp
Intro
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Simon’s Answer to Khalid’s Question on
Simple versus Complex
Simple Complicated Complex Chaotic
Cause & Effect Deterministic
C=E & E=C
Probabilistic
Outcome set closed
C=E | E + E | … E=C|C
Pattern describable
Outcome set open
C=E+? E=?+C
No observable pattern
Dynamics Few elements & few
interactions - Linear
Many element, Few
interactions, Mostly linear
Agent interaction leads to
emergence – Non-Linear
Wicked Non-Linear in
multiple dimensions
Precedence Reliable & Valuable Marginalised Mostly dangerous Impossible to identify
Planning Goal+Deliverables =
(complete) Hi skill (C&E)
Statement of Work
Goal+Deliverables =
evolving SoW
Rolling Wave or Stages
SoO & Constraints,
Decision Architectures
Coordinate plans
Statement of Outcome
(SoO).
Hope
Known-ness All factors predicted with
certainty
All factors predicted, some
with uncertainty
Increasing number of factors that we are unable to
predict how they will be uncertain
Measurement All quantitative Quantitative hard
Qualitative Not possible
Control Style Manage Manage & Lead Lead & Enable
Pastoral Care
Hang-on & Pray
Control
(DMA)
Command
Defined (Templates, Low
skill in Exctn, Automation)
Command, monitor,
Contingencies (Plans B-Z)
(Hi Skill, Bespoke Sol’tn)
Attractors, Agents,
Inspect & Adapt C&E,
Governance Freedom
Monitoring impossible
Allow to run or
Terminate
Best for Implementation,
Manufacture
Efficient repetition
Avoided Creativity, Design, R&D
Novel solutions
¿fun?
Breakthrough

3. 3
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An Idea’s
Journey .
CascadeIntent&Constraints(Tolerances)
DelegateAuthority&ControlofResources
(Constraintsaka‘freedoms’)
M & V=What How: Vision
Vision=What How: Ops Str’tgy
Strategy=What How: Del’bls
Result=What Impacts
Escalatedecisionsoutsideauthorityor
skills:SeekGuidance(Report?)
Why
Technical (Eng & PM) Solution
Domain Skills eg PMBoK+Agile
(Tech, Mg & Q execution)
Project (change)
Ctl-PRINCE2® + Agile
(Eng’ring & Planning)
Dep’t & Prg’m
Options-Structure
(Architectures)
Business P’flo
OutcomesD4®
(Modus Operandi)
Benefits
Decision Making Architecture

4. 4
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Concurrency
Of Design Steps
CascadeIntent&Constraints(Tolerances)
DelegateAuthority&ControlofResources
(Constraintsaka‘freedoms’)
M & V=What How: Vision
Vision=What How: Ops Str’tgy
Strategy=What How: Del’bls
Result=What Impacts
Escalatedecisionsoutsideauthorityor
skills:SeekGuidance(Report?)
Why
Technical (Eng & PM) Solution
Domain Skills eg PMBoK+Agile
(Tech, Mg & Q execution)
Project (change)
Ctl-PRINCE2® + Agile
(Eng’ring & Planning)
Dep’t & Prg’m
Options-Structure
(Architectures)
Business P’flo
OutcomesD4®
(Modus Operandi)
Benefits
Decision Making Architecture

5. 5
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Decision Making ArchitectureCascadeIntent&Constraints(Tolerances)
DelegateAuthority&ControlofResources
(Constraintsaka‘freedoms’)
Escalatedecisionsoutsideauthorityor
skills:SeekGuidance(Report?)
ConstancyofOperation
Operational‘fluency’inday-to-daydecisions
Scripted,Withindefinedlimits
ConstancyofPurpose
Technicalauthoritytodesignandmodify
day-to-dayoperationstoachieve
receivedtargets&goals
ConstancyofBusiness
Authoritytosettargets&tactical
goalsaimedatvision,dutyto
allocateresources,
approveactions
ConstancyofCapital
Fiduciarydutyto
cascade
strategic
vision

6. 6
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Capacity To RTB
Versus CTBCascadeintent&constraints
DelegatedAuthorities&Tolerances(freedoms)
Escalatedecisionsoutsideauthority
Report,SeekGuidance
Trigger
† The capital available – especially human capital – sets (one of) the
constraint or limits on what the directors can do
Business as
usual
Operations
View across the total
portfolio of uses of capital†
Result Tasks Resources
Monitor and Replan
Planning
Execution
Goals
What (M & V) How: Vision
Business Design
(Modus
Operandi)
Business-as-usual use of resources (RtB)
Project use of resources (CtB)
Results, Impacts, Products, Deliverables
future-state-business-as-usual
Delivery
Change
(Projects)
Benefits

7. 7
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 Introducing change means changing attractors
 Incentivise introduction of new to replace old
 Incentives must be based on permanence of eventual solution…
… Avoid churn (change for change & bonus sake only)
 Consolidating the new into the existing
 Incentives for Directors,
Managers, Project &
Operational stakeholders
must link to investor’s target
Manager’s Attractors
Capacity to RTB Versus CTB
Cascadeintent&constraints
DelegatedAuthorities&Tolerances(freedoms)
Escalatedecisionsoutsideauthority
Report,SeekGuidance
Trigger
Business as
usual
Operations
View across the total
portfolio of uses of capital†
Result Tasks Resources
Monitor and Replan
Planning
Execution
Goals
What (M & V) How: Vision
Business Design
(Modus Operandi)
Business-as-usual use of resources (RtB)
Project use of resources
(CtB)Results, Impacts, Products, Deliverables
future-state-business-as-usual
Delivery
Change
(Projects)
Benefits

8. 8
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 Draw-off
of specialisms
from functions
 Skills & tools focus
plus customer
and end-point focus
 Great when well
implemented
 Significant
challenges
Where Interfaces Are Needed
Project α
Project β
Project γ
Strategy
ChangeInitiative
BusinessProcess
ProductDevelopment
BusinessTransf’tn
I’m’tn&Rollout
OpsSupport
Senior
Management
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Integration
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Bid for
Opportunity
Negotiate
Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Systems Engineering
Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Change
Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparatio
n
Test
Specifications
Conduct
tests
Customer
acceptances
Release Operational Support
Project Manag’t Initiation Programme Plan
Service Support
Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commiss
Create Support infrastructure
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Integration
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Bid for
Opportunity
Negotiate
Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Systems Engineering
Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Change
Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparatio
n
Test
Specifications
Conduct
tests
Customer
acceptances
Release Operational Support
Project Manag’t Initiation Programme Plan
Service Support
Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commiss
Create Support infrastructure
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Integration
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Bid for
Opportunity
Negotiate
Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Systems Engineering
Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Change
Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparatio
n
Test
Specifications
Conduct
tests
Customer
acceptances
Release Operational Support
Project Manag’t Initiation Programme Plan
Service Support
Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commiss
Create Support infrastructure
Change Initiative P r o j e c t C o n t r o l
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Staff Training
Strategy
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Approve
Business Case
Monitor Project Execution Monitor Return on Investment
Product Development Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Transf’tn Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparati
on
Test
Specifications
Tests
Setup
Customer
Acceptances
Release Operational Support
Operations Support Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commission
Create Support
infrastructure
Initiation
Project
Plan

9. 9
© Logical Model Ltd 2006-2014
Licensed for individual use without fee. A commercial license (License@logicalmodel.net) removes this note: Please report unlicensed commercial use & share in fees levied
Intro
1
2
3
4
5
9
 Draw-off
of specialisms
from functions
 Skills & tools focus
plus customer
and end-point focus
 Great when well
implemented
 Significant
challenges
Where Interfaces Are Needed
Project α
Project β
Project γ
Strategy
ChangeInitiative
BusinessProcess
ProductDevelopment
BusinessTransf’tn
I’m’tn&Rollout
OpsSupport
Senior
Management
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Integration
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Bid for
Opportunity
Negotiate
Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Systems Engineering
Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Change
Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparatio
n
Test
Specifications
Conduct
tests
Customer
acceptances
Release Operational Support
Project Manag’t Initiation Programme Plan
Service Support
Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commiss
Create Support infrastructure
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Integration
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Bid for
Opportunity
Negotiate
Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Systems Engineering
Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Change
Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparatio
n
Test
Specifications
Conduct
tests
Customer
acceptances
Release Operational Support
Project Manag’t Initiation Programme Plan
Service Support
Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commiss
Create Support infrastructure
Business Process Concept Architecture Design
Training
Design
Validation Integration
Commercials
Identify
Opportunity
Qualify
Opportunity
Bid for
Opportunity
Negotiate
Ts&Cs
Maintain customer relationship
Systems Engineering
Infrastructure
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Business Change
Applicatoin
Architecture
Design Construction Validation Operational Support
Implementation
& Roll-Out
Preparatio
n
Test
Specifications
Conduct
tests
Customer
acceptances
Release Operational Support
Project Manag’t Initiation Programme Plan
Service Support
Design for Support
Specification
Operational Support
De-
commiss
Create Support infrastructure

10. 10
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 At project end the supplier receives their reward (profit)
 The investor is furthest from a return
Benefits Profile
Value
0
Supplier’s Cash-flow
Time (not to scale)
Supplier’s
Profit
Investor’s P&L Profile
Investor’s
Deficit
Supplier’s
Max Invest
Investor’s Final
surplus

11. 11
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…†Just How We Do Business Around Here
 New incentives (& habits)
 Avoid Back-sliding
 New capability projects
often experiences initial
performance below design
 Project end is key challenge for operations
 Emotional support of the people
 Normal & Exceptional procedures
 Turning off old ways of working is disorienting
JHWDBAH†
Promised
Actual-?
Actual-?!
Realising Benefits from Government ICT Investment – a fool’s errand?
Stephen Jenner ISBN 978-1-906638-26-9