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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

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Savannah Whaley
Savannah Whaley

SPG Trend Advisors is a boutique consultancy that provides global economic research for business and other decision makers. With fifty years combined experience between the principals, and through its website, SPG Trend Advisors provides insightful analysis and forecasting to prepare senior executives for tomorrows trends.

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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side May 1, 2009 Presented by: Morris Segall, President SPG Trend Advisors
THE ECONOMY
Gross Domestic Product Q1 2001 – Q1 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q4 2007 – Q1 2009 ,[object Object]
Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004 through 2010* Source: International Monetary Fund *2009-2010 data are projections This recession has spread worldwide with greater negative impact on export dependent overseas economies. Many overseas economies are now projected to contract this year led by severe recessions in Europe, Japan and Asia. These projections may still be too optimistic for 2009 and 2010.
Corporate Profits (before taxes on corporate income) Q1 2000 – Q4 2008 ,[object Object],Corporate profits are adjusted for inventory valuation and capital consumption. The measure includes both domestic and overseas operations.
Year-over-year Percentage Changes in Corporate Profit before Tax Q1 2001-Q4 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Industrial Production January, 2008 - March, 2009 ,[object Object],% decline Jan. 08- Feb. 09: 16%
Capacity Utilization by Status of Production January, 2008 - March, 2009 ,[object Object]
Net Change in U.S. Jobs (Total Non-farm) June, 2005 – March, 2009 ,[object Object]
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups January, 2008 – March, 2009 ,[object Object]
National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups September, 2008 – March, 2009 ,[object Object]
Initial Unemployment Claims January, 2009 – April 25 th , 2009 ,[object Object],Reflecting the rise in unemployment, new job losses rose dramatically in the first quarter of this year. However, the trend of new job losses appears to have peaked at around 650,000 since the latter part of February. Normally we would be prepared to predict a peaking in unemployment is at hand based on this trend. However, we believe a new surge in job losses is coming over the summer as the auto industry downsizes.
Continued Unemployment Claims February, 2006 – April 18 th , 2009 ,[object Object]
Source: (Left) Census Bureau, (Right) Federal Reserve Bank ,[object Object],[object Object],Since the third quarter of 2008 consumer spending has been declining and the consumer is currently paying down outstanding debt. These trends have been negative for the economy in the short term but the reduction of consumer debt and an increase in consumer savings is positive for the economy and the improved creditworthiness of the consumer longer term.
[object Object],Source: (Left) National Association of Realtors, (Right) Census Bureau New Home Sales Units Sold v. Length on Market March, 2006- March, 2009 Housing remains weak but new home inventories may have peaked as new home construction , home prices and mortgage interest rates have declined. The latter will also help the existing home market. We expect the rate of decline in housing sales to diminish over the remainder of this year.
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index 2006 – February, 2009 ,[object Object],% decline 2006-Feb. 09: 30.1%
Conference Board Consumer Confidence 2005 - April, 2009 Source: Conference Board
Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Delinquency Rates among Major Investor Groups January, 2008 - March, 2009 Source: Intex, Trepp (Deutsche Bank)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy and commodity prices, we are not in agreement with a fear of deflation hitting the U.S. economy. Food, basic services, healthcare and education prices are stubbornly high. Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2006 v. 2005 2007 v. 2006 2008 v. 2007 6 months ended in Mar. 2009 All items 2.5% 4.1% 0.1% -5.4% Food at Home 1.4% 5.6% 6.6% -1.4% Food Away Home 3.2% 4.0% 5.0% 3.7% Rent of Primary Res 4.3% 4.0% 3.4% 2.8% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% Household Energy 2.4% 5.3% 5.9% -11.4% Water/Sewer/Trash 4.8% 5.4% 6.5% 4.7% Houshold Ops 4.4% 2.2% 6.0% 1.0% Car Repair 3.8% 3.3% 5.9% 4.3 % Pub. Transp 0.1% 7.2% 1.8% -20.6% Medical 3.6% 5.2% 2.6% 3.3% Education 6.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% Energy 2.9% 17.4% -21.3% -49.9%
[object Object],Crude Oil Spot Prices in U.S. Dollars October, 2003– April 21 st , 2009
[object Object],[object Object],Nominal Broad Dollar Index April, 2000 – April 24 th , 2009
THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE
Money Supply (M2): January, 2007- April, 2009 ,[object Object]
Federal Budget Deficit (exclusive of Social Security Trust funds) FY 2006 – March, 2009 ,[object Object]
U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2010* *2009-2010 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office
[object Object],Federal Reserve Balance Sheet: Reserve Bank Credit June, 2008 – April, 2009
Source: (Left) Federal Reserve Bank, (Right) British Banker’s Association ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],The Fed and European Central Bank have cut interest rates to the banking systems here and abroad thus driving down the cost of bank funds to facilitate bank lending.
How do I get through it? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How do I get through it? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s on the other side? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What’s on the other side? (cont.) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Where are the opportunities? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Conclusions continued ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Thank You ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side

  • 1. Today’s Economic Landscape and What’s on the Other Side May 1, 2009 Presented by: Morris Segall, President SPG Trend Advisors
  • 3. Gross Domestic Product Q1 2001 – Q1 2009 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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  • 5. Historic and Projected World Output Growth, 2004 through 2010* Source: International Monetary Fund *2009-2010 data are projections This recession has spread worldwide with greater negative impact on export dependent overseas economies. Many overseas economies are now projected to contract this year led by severe recessions in Europe, Japan and Asia. These projections may still be too optimistic for 2009 and 2010.
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  • 7. Year-over-year Percentage Changes in Corporate Profit before Tax Q1 2001-Q4 2008 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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  • 18. Conference Board Consumer Confidence 2005 - April, 2009 Source: Conference Board
  • 19. Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities Delinquency Rates among Major Investor Groups January, 2008 - March, 2009 Source: Intex, Trepp (Deutsche Bank)
  • 20. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics While inflation has declined precipitously in the recession led by the collapse in energy and commodity prices, we are not in agreement with a fear of deflation hitting the U.S. economy. Food, basic services, healthcare and education prices are stubbornly high. Changes in Consumer Price Index in Percentage Terms 2006 v. 2005 2007 v. 2006 2008 v. 2007 6 months ended in Mar. 2009 All items 2.5% 4.1% 0.1% -5.4% Food at Home 1.4% 5.6% 6.6% -1.4% Food Away Home 3.2% 4.0% 5.0% 3.7% Rent of Primary Res 4.3% 4.0% 3.4% 2.8% Owners Equiv of Rent of Prim Res 4.3% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% Household Energy 2.4% 5.3% 5.9% -11.4% Water/Sewer/Trash 4.8% 5.4% 6.5% 4.7% Houshold Ops 4.4% 2.2% 6.0% 1.0% Car Repair 3.8% 3.3% 5.9% 4.3 % Pub. Transp 0.1% 7.2% 1.8% -20.6% Medical 3.6% 5.2% 2.6% 3.3% Education 6.3% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% Energy 2.9% 17.4% -21.3% -49.9%
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  • 23. THE GOVERNMENT’S RESPONSE
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  • 26. U.S. Federal Budget Deficit, 1995-2010* *2009-2010 data are projections Source: Congressional Budget Office
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