Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate




                                                                       Ni...
Chemical fertilization



http://cache.eb.com/eb/imag e?i d=1130 8&ren dTypeId=4
http://cache.eb.com/eb/imag e?i d=1130 8&...
Scientific agriculture is not universal


                                                                            http...
Molecular genetic modification: insect-resistant Bt maize




                                       http://www.apsnet.org...
Arable land is limited




                                             www.theoildrum.com/.../12/global_land_use2.jpg
   ...
Increasing global temperatures




                            Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004)
                        ...
Projected growing season temperatures




Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario.
P...
The relationship between temperature and crop yield




 Schlenk er and Roberts 2009, PNAS
 Schlenk er and Roberts 2009, P...
Water scarcity will increase in many populous places




                                                   Quic k Time™ a...
What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate
                                     change?



     Conventional breedi...
Desert agriculture

                                                                                      Photo courtesy o...
Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture




                                                                        ...
Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture




Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation
Photos court...
Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate




                       Nina V. Fedoroff
                       Nina V. Fe...
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Nina Fedoroff

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Dr Nina Fedoroff's presentation on boosting agriculture and developing genetically engineered crops

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Transcript of "Nina Fedoroff"

  1. 1. Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate Nina V. Fedoroff Nina V. Fedoroff Science and T echnology Advis er to the U. S. Secretary of State Science and T echnology Advis er to the U. S. Secretary of State and to the Admi nistrator of USAID and to the Admi nistrator of USAID Concerns about food security are not new…… http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:An_Essay_on_the_Principle_of_Population.jpg http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/Image:An_Essay_on_the_Princi le_of_Popul tion.jpg www.nndb.com/people/250/000024178/malthus.jpg www.nndb.com/people/250/000024178/malthus.jpg p T homas Malthus T homas Malthus a 1
  2. 2. Chemical fertilization http://cache.eb.com/eb/imag e?i d=1130 8&ren dTypeId=4 http://cache.eb.com/eb/imag e?i d=1130 8&ren dTypeId=4 www.eo earth.org/me dia/ap prove d/e/e6/Bosch.j pg www.eo earth.org/me dia/ap prove d/e/e6/Bosch.j pg Fritz Haber Fritz Haber Carl Bosch Carl Bosch vn.schmidt-clem ens.de/vn office/data/0/0/0/227... vn.schmidt-clem ens.de/vn office/data/0/0/0/227... Mechanization Quic kT ime™ and aa Quic kT ime™ and TT IFF(Unc ompres ss ed)dec ompres ss or IFF (Unc ompres ed) dec ompres or are needed to ss eethis pic ture. are needed to ee this pic ture. bp3.blogger.com/…./s320/Hubert+proughing+2.jpg n bp3.blogger.com/…./s320/Hubert+proughi g+2.jpg iStock photo 000003424427 iStock photo 000003424427 2
  3. 3. Scientific agriculture is not universal http://image.guardian.co.uk/sysimages/Guardian/Pix/pictu g a x c http://image. uardian.co.uk/sysimages/Guardi n/Pi /pi tu res/2006/07/18/farm372.jpg 0 res/2006/ 7/18/farm372.jpg http://www.iae a.org/NewsCenter/Features/Tset e http://www.iae a.org/NewsCenter/Features/T s e sets /tsetse_gallery/images/006w .jpg e /tsetse_gall ry/images/006w .jpg Genetic modification www. ukurydza. rg.pl/images/teosi te1.jpg www.kukurydza.org.pl/images/teosinte1.jpg k o n www.kukurydza.org.pl/images/ k o www. ukurydza. rg.pl/images/ teosinte1.jpg n teosi te1.jpg evolution.berkeley.edu/.../images/ ornfld.jpg evolution.berkely.edu/.../images/c ornfld.j g e c p http://www.arini.ac.uk/pics/maie%202altd.jpg http://www.arini.ac.uk/pis/maize%202altd.jpg c z 3
  4. 4. Molecular genetic modification: insect-resistant Bt maize http://www.apsnet.org/online/feature/BtCorn/Images/healthy%20ear.JPG o n J http://www.apsnet.org/ nli e/feature/BtCorn/Images/healthy%20ear. PG Global population growth continues http://www.sustainablescale. rg/images/uploaded/Population/World%20Population%20Growth%20to% http://www.sustainablscale.o rg/images/uploaded/Popul tion/Worl %20Popul tion% e o a d a 20Growth%20to%202050. PG 202050.J PG J 4
  5. 5. Arable land is limited www.theoildrum.com/.../12/global_land_use2.jpg d o a p www.theoil rum.com/.../12/gl bal_l nd_use2.j g The food crisis of 2008 QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor TIFF (Uncompressed) decompressor are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. Source: FAO Source: FAO 5
  6. 6. Increasing global temperatures Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004) Stott et al, Nature 432:610 (2004) Impact of climate change on crops 2003 Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti 6
  7. 7. Projected growing season temperatures Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario. Projections use 22 climate models (IPCC AR4) forced by A1B Emiss ion scenario. Variability taken from obs ervations Variability taken from obs ervations Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti Slide courtesy of Dr. David Battisti Projected growing season temperatures Battisti and Naylor 2008 Battisti and Naylor 2008 7
  8. 8. The relationship between temperature and crop yield Schlenk er and Roberts 2009, PNAS Schlenk er and Roberts 2009, PNAS A third of the world’s population already lives in drylands Slide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev v Slide courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion Uni ersity of the Negev 8
  9. 9. Water scarcity will increase in many populous places Quic k Time™ and a Quic k Time™ and a dec ompres s or dec ompres s or are needed to s ee this pic ture. are needed to s ee this pic ture. Quic k Time™ and a dec ompres s or are needed to s ee this pic ture. Slide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management Institute Slide courtesy of Dr. David Molden, International Water Management Institute The shape of the future What will be LESS abundant? Energy Fresh water Arable land What will be MORE abundant? People (demand) Desert Heat What does that mean? Today’s crops will not suffice for tomorrow’s world 9
  10. 10. What will it take to adapt agriculture to climate change? Conventional breeding for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity Molecular modification for tolerance to heat, drought, salinity Out-of-the-box thinking: new crops, new methods, new systems Desert and saline agriculture Q ui kTi m e™and aa Q ui kTi e™ and cc m ar eeneededdecompr essor pi t ur e. ar neededdecompr essor t ur e. t t osee t t hi pi c o see hi s c s Q u c k Tm e ™ i i a n d a Q d u c k T m p e ™s s a n d a e i o mi r e o r a r e n e d e c o mt p r e s s o r h s e d e d o s e e t i p c t u r e . i a r e n e e d e d t o s e e t h s i p c t u r e . i International Center For Biosaline Agricultural, International Center For Biosaline Agricultural, Dubai, UAE Dubai, UAE http://www.cac-biodiversity.org/icarda/index.htm y n h http://www.cac-biodiversit .org/icarda/i dex. tm http://www.biosaline.org/ o http://www.bi saline.org/ QuickTime™ and a QuickTime™ and a decompressor decompressor are needed to see this picture. are needed to see this picture. Q u i k T i c m e ™ a n d a a r e n e e d e d p t o s s e e n t h i d Q c o m T i r e ™ u i k c m o r a d s a p i t u r e . c a r e n e e d e d p t o s s e e d c o m r e o r t h i s p i t u r e . c International Center for Agricultural Resear ch in the Dry Areas (ICAR DA), Aleppo, Syria International Center for Agricultural Resear ch in the Dry Areas (ICAR DA), Aleppo, Syria 10
  11. 11. Desert agriculture Photo courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Photo courtesy of Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research Ben-Gurion University of the Negev Ben-Gurion University of the Negev Qu i cckkT i m ee™ aanndd aa Qu i Tim ™ ddeeccoom ppre ssssoor r m re aare nneeeeddeedd to sseeee th i ss ppi cctu re . . re to th i i tu re http://www.hos.ufl.edu/ProtectedAg/images/Arava-2a.j g u e e g/images/Arava-2a.jp g http://www.hos. fl.edu/Prot ct dA p Water requirements of food crops 1 kg fish – 10 liters of water 1 kg fish – 10 liters of water 1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water 1 kg wheat – 500-2000 liters of water 1 kg beef – 5000-20,000 liters of water! Adapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev v Adapted from Dr. Avigad Vonshak, Jacob Blaustein Institute for Desert Research, Ben-Gurion Uni ersity of the Negev 11
  12. 12. Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture 13 km Seawater River Seawater F arms Bahia Kino Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation Photo courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation 12
  13. 13. Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation Integrated aquaculture and saline agriculture Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation Photos courtesy of Dr. Carl Hodges, The Seawater Foundation 13
  14. 14. Rethinking Agriculture in a Changing Climate Nina V. Fedoroff Nina V. Fedoroff Science and T echnology Advis er to the Secretar y of State Science and T echnology Advis er to the Secretar y of State and to the Admi nistrator of USAID and to the Admi nistrator of USAID 14

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