November 12th Presentation ... updated to include Barnstable Horace Mann Charter Schools enrollment figures

1. School Enrollment, Census and K-12 Planning

2. K12 Planning: Cape Cod & Islands
 Issues
 Decreasing Population of School Age Children
 Competition
 Public
 School Choice
 Charter Schools
 Private Schools
 Determining Future Trends for Local Enrollment
 Planning to Appropriately Meet Local Needs

3. Historical Student Population
All Cape (No Islands - No Charter)
FY PK UG K G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total
1988 231 200 2383 2397 2322 2215 2155 2058 1949 1939 2110 2245 2141 2223 2233 28,801
1989 281 169 2361 2605 2282 2352 2250 2206 2110 1955 1982 2220 2067 2040 2043 28,923
1990 336 197 2446 2619 2531 2320 2378 2263 2234 2123 1978 2103 2113 1964 1886 29,491
1991 312 193 2546 2627 2580 2554 2341 2398 2262 2193 2151 2076 1964 2026 1814 30,037
1992 351 201 2573 2725 2589 2591 2608 2360 2395 2241 2222 2229 2003 1895 1893 30,876
1993 302 181 2437 2549 2544 2461 2414 2410 2194 2173 2036 2192 1990 1768 1670 29,321
1994 472 132 2611 2583 2564 2595 2477 2476 2457 2203 2202 2191 2113 1954 1685 30,715
1995 531 72 2554 2707 2645 2593 2654 2513 2539 2445 2231 2414 2057 2040 1786 31,781
1996 528 114 2605 2731 2685 2663 2603 2667 2459 2472 2437 2394 2225 1986 1903 32,472
1997 542 97 2454 2767 2691 2676 2658 2565 2527 2401 2441 2581 2276 2131 1762 32,569
1998 575 71 2318 2570 2754 2690 2718 2656 2566 2528 2416 2640 2393 2113 1911 32,919
1999 613 74 2214 2471 2577 2780 2749 2745 2635 2576 2568 2602 2459 2253 1918 33,234
2000 598 55 2290 2378 2480 2628 2800 2187 2675 2647 2599 2756 2377 2300 2073 32,843
2001 370 0 2231 2390 2356 2505 2639 2183 2702 2677 2674 2889 2538 2279 2140 32,573
2002 568 0 1948 2304 2315 2364 2472 2088 2680 2680 2617 2894 2552 2329 2045 31,856
2003 572 0 2103 2235 2275 2356 2350 1955 2533 2696 2689 3036 2570 2446 2168 31,984
2004 619 8 2050 2184 2208 2300 2351 1894 1894 2443 2683 2915 2729 2458 2209 30,945
2005 706 13 1879 2013 2082 2109 2199 1825 1828 2396 2440 2875 2656 2582 2228 29,831
2006 712 13 1850 1919 1967 2070 2088 1747 1785 2182 2367 2646 2616 2515 2354 28,831
2007 690 25 1888 1921 1873 1962 2046 1633 1704 2204 2173 2615 2428 2528 2352 28,042
2008 726 31 1817 1914 1876 1861 1941 1661 1569 2099 2204 2347 2446 2453 2374 27,319
2009 695 31 1784 1900 1890 1847 1907 1579 1586 1987 2099 2340 2271 2372 2170 26,458
2010 742 44 1807 1804 1865 1913 1544 1576 1964 1980 2011 2339 2289 2210 2143 26,231

4. Cape Historical Enrollment Trends
Enrollment (No Islands, No Charter)
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000 Enrollment (No Islands, No Charter)
10,000
5,000
0

5. Cape Enrollment Trends
All Cape (No Islands - Including Barnstable Horace Mann Charters)
FY PK UG K G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10 G11 G12 Total
1988 231 200 2383 2397 2322 2215 2155 2058 1949 1939 2110 2245 2141 2223 2233 28,801
1989 281 169 2361 2605 2282 2352 2250 2206 2110 1955 1982 2220 2067 2040 2043 28,923
1990 336 197 2446 2619 2531 2320 2378 2263 2234 2123 1978 2103 2113 1964 1886 29,491
1991 312 193 2546 2627 2580 2554 2341 2398 2262 2193 2151 2076 1964 2026 1814 30,037
1992 351 201 2573 2725 2589 2591 2608 2360 2395 2241 2222 2229 2003 1895 1893 30,876
1993 302 181 2437 2549 2544 2461 2414 2410 2194 2173 2036 2192 1990 1768 1670 29,321
1994 472 132 2611 2583 2564 2595 2477 2476 2457 2203 2202 2191 2113 1954 1685 30,715
1995 531 72 2554 2707 2645 2593 2654 2513 2539 2445 2231 2414 2057 2040 1786 31,781
1996 528 114 2605 2731 2685 2663 2603 2667 2459 2472 2437 2394 2225 1986 1903 32,472
1997 542 97 2454 2767 2691 2676 2658 2565 2527 2401 2441 2581 2276 2131 1762 32,569
1998 575 71 2318 2570 2754 2690 2718 2656 2566 2528 2416 2640 2393 2113 1911 32,919
1999 613 74 2214 2471 2577 2780 2749 2745 2635 2576 2568 2602 2459 2253 1918 33,234
2000 598 55 2290 2378 2480 2628 2800 2768 2675 2647 2599 2756 2377 2300 2073 33,424
2001 370 0 2231 2390 2356 2505 2639 2797 2702 2677 2674 2889 2538 2279 2140 33,187
2002 568 0 1948 2304 2315 2364 2472 2702 2680 2680 2617 2894 2552 2329 2045 32,470
2003 572 0 2103 2235 2275 2356 2350 2480 2533 2696 2689 3036 2570 2446 2168 32,509
2004 619 8 2050 2184 2208 2300 2351 2329 2420 2443 2683 2915 2729 2458 2209 31,906
2005 706 13 1947 2090 2141 2187 2268 2291 2255 2396 2440 2875 2656 2582 2228 31,075
2006 712 13 1955 2001 2051 2151 2170 2202 2248 2182 2367 2646 2616 2515 2354 30,183
2007 690 25 1988 2031 1961 2057 2126 2079 2160 2204 2173 2615 2428 2528 2352 29,417
2008 726 31 1902 2015 1985 1948 2033 2070 2014 2099 2204 2347 2446 2453 2374 28,647
2009 695 31 1870 1989 1989 1957 1995 2010 1996 1987 2099 2340 2271 2372 2170 27,771
2010 742 44 1866 1897 1963 1998 1965 1948 1964 1980 2011 2339 2289 2210 2143 27,359

6. Cape Historical Enrollment Trends
Enrollment (No Islands, Including Barnstable Horace Mann
Charters)
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
20,000 Enrollment (No
Islands, Including Barnstable
15,000 HM Charters)
10,000
5,000
0

7. Cohorts for Future Student Population
2010-2011 Data (Census & Oct 1, 2010)
Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-12
FY
Barnstable 1,250 1,304 1,299 1164 1224 1245 1209 1217 1226 1258 1318 1304 1235
Bourne 522 531 519 525 534 537 545 580 587 564 521 493 478
Brewster 193 194 214 217 247 255 251 159
Chatham 101 107 97 143 144 153 163 158 151 160 163 156 139
Dennis-
942 942 942 773 774 788 800 802 809 764 716 683 686
Yarmouth
Eastham 85 84 85 104 113 121 121 77
Falmouth 769 783 797 894 897 893 865 845 838 819 739 712 710
Harwich 260 283 296 308 307 329 326 324 289 283 273 269 272
Mashpee 384 390 388 426 428 408 414 395 407 430 409 400 384
Orleans 88 99 101 86 82 84 86 54
Provincetown 32 36 35 26 29 24 29 23 20 29 33 35 37
Sandwich 516 553 604 725 783 820 837 826 891 911 875 810 767
Truro 33 36 40 58 64 53 52 48 16
Wellfleet 58 52 46 72 58 51 56 39
Nauset 180 563 595 664 741 756
CCT 184 359 532 499
UCT 184 350 512 488
Sturgis 110 224 322 291
Lighthouse 76 228 152 76
Total 5233 5394 5463 5521 5684 5761 5754 5803 6025 6443 6720 6969 6742
75.09% 77.40% 78.39% 79.22% 81.56% 82.67% 82.57% 83.27% 86.45% 92.45% 96.43% 100.00% 96.74%

8. Cohort Trends – Student Population
Cohort Enrollment 2010-2011
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Cohort Enrollment
3000
2000
1000
0
Age 0-3 Age 1-4 Age 2-5 K-2 1-3 2-4 3-5 4-6 6-8 7-9 8-10 9-11 10-12

9. Cohort Trends – Student Population
Cohort Enrollment
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
Cohort Enrollment
3000
2000
1000
0
10-12 9-11 8-10 7-9 6-8 4-6 3-5 2-4 1-3 K-2 Age 2-5 Age 1-4 Age 0-3

10. Cape Cod School Choice Trends (2010-2011)
Cape Districts
--- ---
Receiving---Sending---
1,000.00
FTE FTE n of incoming choice pupils
900.00 n of choice pupils at other districts
FY Pupils Pupils
number of full-time equivalent pupils
2002 354.56 346.96 800.00
2003 388.35 394.17 700.00
2004 455.03 431.80 600.00
2005 484.78 438.21 500.00
2006 570.70 508.93 400.00
2007 580.96 535.76 300.00
2008 699.51 649.48 200.00
2009 737.37 736.26 100.00
2010 817.56 794.11 0.00
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
2011 933.00 911.00

11. 10.0 Wellfleet
0.0
31.0 Wareha
45.5 m
2.0 Truro
23.0
School Choice Impact (2010-2011)
n of choice pupils at other districts
38.5 Sandwic
21.0 h
43.0 Province
25.0 town
1.0 Orleans
0.0
34.0 Nauset
240.0
46.0 Mashpe
4.0 e
n of incoming choice pupils
194.5 Harwich
147.0
District
23.5 Falmout
35.0 h
9.0 Eastha
0.0 m
303.5 DY
70.0
55.0 Chatha
203.0 m
16.0 Brewste
0.0 r
30.0 Bourne
42.0
74.0 Barnsta
77.5 ble
0.0
100.0
300.0
350.0
250.0
200.0
150.0
50.0
Number of full-time equivalent pupils

12. School Choice & Charter Impact (2010-2011)
0.0 Wellfle
10.0 et
0.0
17.0 Wareh
31.0
Charter - Out
Choice - Out
45.5 am
Choice - In
8.0
2.0 Truro
23.0
59.0 Sandwi
38.5 ch
21.0
9.0 Provin
43.0 cetown
25.0
0.0 Orlean
1.0 s
0.0
98.0
34.0 Nauset
240.0
24.0 Mashp
46.0 ee
4.0
District
35.0 Harwic
194.5 h
147.0
54.0 Falmo
23.5 uth
35.0
0.0 Eastha
9.0 m
0.0
137.0
303.5 DY
70.0
7.0 Chatha
55.0 m
203.0
0.0 Brewst
16.0 er
0.0
44.0
30.0 Bourne
42.0
100.0 Barnst
74.0 able
77.5
0.0
150.0
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
100.0
50.0
FTE - Students

13. School Choice & Charter Impact
In -FTE Out - FTE FTE
FY Pupils Pupils Charter
Barnstable 77.5 74.0 100.0
Bourne 42.0 30.0 44.0
Brewster 0.0 16.0 0.0
Chatham 203.0 55.0 7.0
DY 70.0 303.5 137.0
Eastham 0.0 9.0 0.0
Falmouth 35.0 23.5 54.0
Harwich 147.0 194.5 35.0
Mashpee 4.0 46.0 24.0
Nauset 240.0 34.0 98.0
Orleans 0.0 1.0 0.0
Provincetown 25.0 43.0 9.0
Sandwich 21.0 38.5 59.0
Truro 23.0 2.0 8.0
Wareham 45.5 31.0 17.0
Wellfleet 0.0 10.0 0.0

14. Other Influences Upon Public
School District Enrollment
 Parochial / Religious School Enrollment
 Pope Pius X– Yarmouth (215)
 St. Margaret’s – Buzzards bay (265)
 Pope John Paul II – Hyannis (approx 235)
 Trinity Christian Academy (112)
 Holy Trinity Regional School - Harwich (128)
 St. Francis Xavier – Hyannis (215)
 Veritas Academy – West Barnstable (37)
 Heritage Christian Academy – East Falmouth (53)
 Bayberry Christian School – Osterville (7)
 Faith Christian Academy – Hyannis (21)
 Private School Enrollment
 Cape Cod Academy (337)
 Falmouth Academy (190)
 Waldorf School – Cotuit (98)
 The Laurel School – Brewster (?)
 Academy of Early Learning - Hyannis (118)

15. Planning for Enrollment Changes
 Next Steps
 Data Gathering & Review
 Discussion - Local
 Dialogue – Regional with Common “Terms”
 What does it look like?
 Regionalization?
 Consolidation?
 Collaboration?