The economy is rebounding, government spending is flattening, and President Obama is grappling with the deficit. At least that's what the data says.

1. Dear Ohio Voters,
As popular as we are right now, with all
the campaign ads and media spin, it’s
hard to know the facts in 2012.
One Ohio voter took a look at
the data on issues that haven’t
gotten much press lately.

2. Agenda These charts will
attempt to show that
1. Sustainable economic renewal contrary to a lot of what
The stimulus was critical, and the economy is we hear, there’s a strong
recovering with minimal new regulations. argument that the
Obama Administration
2. Limited but effective government has practiced
Taxes, like welfare rolls, are at historical
lows, and government growth is slowing.
fiscal responsibility.
3. Long-term deficit reduction
One deficit reduction act signed, one pending
… plus healthcare cost control. It’s a start.
“Play Me, I’m Yours,” Cincinnati, © JB 2012

3. Sustainable economic renewal
The US economy continues to The 2009-2010 federal stimulus
recover from the most severe provided a critical piece of the
recovery at a time of need …
recession in 75 years.
US private job growth by month
While still slow by historical Private non-farm payrolls, seasonally adjusted
standards, US growth is among the President Obama
highest in the industrialized world. inaugurated
Q2 2012 GDP Growth Rates
3 New Q3 data – 2.0%
% change in GDP (annualized)
2
1
0
-1 Italy UK France Japan Germany US
-2 Federal stimulus enacted
-3
-4
Source: OECD quarterly national accounts: http://www.oecd.org/std/oecdfrequentlyrequestedstatistics.htm#GDP
Department of the Treasury & Bureau of Labor Statistics: http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/documents/20120229_essentialecon.pdf

4. Sustainable economic renewal
The effective, short-term Jobs and revenue saved –
stimulus helped save the US CBO estimates
from a deeper recession ... Agreement examples
State governors from both parties
lobbied heavily for stimulus funds to
save their states from mass layoffs
“ I think it was the responsible and
right thing to do … in Florida
alone, for example, it created or
maintained at least 87,000 jobs. ”
- Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) - 2010
Source: New York Times; http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/01/31/republican-governors-urge-congress-pass-stimulus/

5. Sustainable economic renewal
… with a composition
weighted heavily toward
tax cuts, infrastructure
improvements to improve
competitiveness, and
critical aid to states.
American Society of Civil “ We have big problems with deficits and debt
Engineers 2012 grade on … but those problems would be completely
overwhelming if not for the government's
US infrastructure – D aggressive reaction to the crisis. ”
- Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody’s Analytics
Source: http://economyleague.org/node/1157
http://www.philly.com/philly/opinion/20120923_Yes__stimulus_was_the_right_move.html

6. Sustainable economic renewal
The Obama Administration has “ Obama’s White House has approved
passed regulations in quantity fewer regulations than his
predecessor George W. Bush at this
and impact similar to those of same point in their tenures, and the
recent administrations ... estimated costs of those rules
haven’t reached the annual peak set
Est. annual cost* of new federal regulations
Constant 2011 dollars
in fiscal 1992 under Bush’s father. ”
- Bloomberg News
$B 25 *Cost estimates do not include potential
benefits from public/worker health and
20 safety, which may be many times greater
15
10 Max Obama Obama Adminstration costs include
5 Annual average, 1981-2008 Min Obama
regulations from post-crash
0 Dodd-Frank financial reform and 2009
1988 - Reagan 1992 - Bush Obama 2009-2011 Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare)
average
Source: Bloomberg News analysis of Office of Management and Budget data
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-25/obama-wrote-5-fewer-rules-than-bush-while-costing-business.html

7. Limited but effective government
The recession and
unemployment triggered
automatic increases in
government spending for
assistance.
The Obama Administration
temporarily increased
benefits with two goals:
keep Americans out of
poverty and stimulate
economic recovery.
Cincinnati skyline and Ohio River, 2012

8. Limited but effective government
Federal and state response to the deep recession temporarily
and automatically increased nutritional assistance ...
Monthly Average monthly TANF (welfare
Participants, Supplemental payment) recipients
Nutrition Assistance Program
50 (Food Stamps) 50
40 40
Millions
Millions
30 30
20 20
10 10
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
… while welfare rolls have
… most of which benefits
barely budged …
children, elderly, and disabled individuals …
Source: Department of Health and Human Services, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Department of Agriculture

9. Limited but effective government
… with little to no change from … and the automatic food stamp
the Obama Administration for increase projected to decline back to
benefits … historical levels with economic renewal.
Monthly benefit per household
2008 2011
SNAP (food stamps) US average
$227 $284
Ohio TANF (welfare payments) max*
$410 $434
*Maximum available benefit for family of 3
Source: Department of Health and Human Services, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Department of Agriculture

10. Limited but effective government
US income tax rates, top bracket (%)
US income taxes are at
100.0%
historically low rates …
80.0%
60.0%
… with top marginal income
40.0%
tax rates far lower than in
20.0%
decades past …
0.0%
1913
1917
1921
1925
1929
1933
1937
1941
1945
1949
1953
1957
1961
1965
1969
1973
1977
1981
1985
1989
1993
1997
2001
2005
2009
… and low effective
corporate tax rates when
deductions are factored in …
Source: Tax Policy Center: http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=213; OECD, US Treasury

11. Limited but effective government
… as total US federal and state tax
revenues take one of the smallest
bites out of the economy in the
“ The truth of the matter is that
industrialized world …
federal taxes in the United
States are very low. There is
Total tax revenue as share of GDP (2007)
Federal and state total collections
no reason to believe that
Denmark reducing them further will do
Sweden
Italy anything to raise growth or
France
Spain reduce unemployment. ”
United Kingdom
Germany
OECD Total
Canada
- Bruce Bartlett
Australia Economic Adviser to Pres. Reagan
Japan
United States
May 2011
Korea
Mexico
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Source: CBPP, OECD, http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/05/31/are-taxes-in-the-u-s-high-or-low/
http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/tax-cuts-dont-lead-to-economic-growth-a-new-65-year-study-finds/262438/

12. Limited but effective government
Federal spending & employment
3000 3500
Federal Census workers
employment
$T Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
3000
Thousands of federal government employees
2500
2500
… with reduced basic
2000 expenditures and
Govermnent Bush Obama
expenditures
2000 basically flat government
1500 Admin. Admin.
& gross 1500
employment under the
investment Obama Administration …
1000
(excludes 1000
transfer
500 payments) 500
Constant 2005 dollars, average annualized quarterly rate
0 0
Jan-92
Jan-93
Jan-94
Jan-95
Jan-96
Jan-97
Jan-98
Jan-99
Jan-00
Jan-01
Jan-02
Jan-03
Jan-04
Jan-05
Jan-06
Jan-07
Jan-08
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Jan-12
Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve Economic Data: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

13. Limited but effective government
(Includes transfer payments)
MarketWatch Analysis – Dow Jones/Wall Street Journal
… and slower federal spending growth
overall, even when accounting for the
stimulus and entitlement spending.
Source: http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-05-22/commentary/31802270_1_spending-federal-budget-drunken-sailor
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/may/23/facebook-posts/viral-facebook-post-says-barack-obama-has-lowest-s/

14. Long-term deficit reduction
Low taxes plus a massive
drop in tax receipts made
growing government
deficits worse, adding each
year to total US debt.
These deficits have
declined slightly under the
Obama Administration and
will continue to shrink …
but additional long-term
deficit reduction is critical.
Fountain Square, Cincinnati

15. Long-term deficit reduction
The federal deficit was projected to hit at
least $1.2 trillion in 2009 before
President Obama took office, as tax
revenues collapsed.
Emergency stimulus measures slightly
increased the deficit in 2009-2011 but
likely helped the economy recover
faster, reducing future deficits.
The largest contributors to the deficit
are previous tax cuts, military
spending, and recent economic events…
Source: CBPP; http://money.cnn.com/2012/06/22/news/economy/obama-spending/index.htm

16. Long-term deficit reduction
Net public debt as % of GDP (2011)
Total gov’t debt net of intragovernmental liabilities
While current borrowing has not 250%
created a short-term crisis, with 200%
150%
US debt compared to the total
100%
economy still manageable, and
50%
yields we pay on new debt
0%
historically low … US Germany France UK Italy Japan
Projected federal expenditures as % of GDP
… the structural deficit still poses a
long-term challenge, especially in
terms of health care spending …
Source: CIA World Factbook (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/rankorder/2186rank.html)
Bipartisan Policy Center analysis of CBO data (http://bipartisanpolicy.org/blog/2012/02/twelve-takeaways-cbo’s-2012-budget-and-economic-outlook)

17. Long-term deficit reduction
President Obama signed the Budget
Control Act in 2011 in an agreement
with Congressional Republicans
enacting nearly $1 trillion in spending
cuts over 10 years …
… consistent with recommendations of
the bipartisan Bowles-Simpson deficit
reduction committee.
The Obama Administration has proposed a Living Within Our Means and Investing in
second plan targeting an additional $2-3 the Future: The President’s Plan for
trillion in 10-year deficit reduction. Economic Growth and Deficit Reduction
Source: http://www.cbpp.org/cms/index.cfm?fa=view&id=3844
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/oct/04/barack-obama/obama-says-he-will-cut-deficits-4-trillion/

18. Long-term deficit reduction
The Patient Protection and Affordable
Care Act (“ObamaCare”) is designed to
rein in the future cost of healthcare …
With a market-driven solution and
subsidies, but no new government
plan, requiring personal responsibility …
“ It’s the ultimate conservative idea, which is that
people have responsibility for their own care. ”
… not relying on local governments and
“ Essential for bringing the health care costs providers for services to the uninsured
down for everyone.
” that drive up taxes and premiums … at
- Massachussetts Gov. Mitt Romney (R) on the a cost of $73 billion (2008).
MA Health Care Insurance Reform Law (2006) mandate
Source: Boston Globe; http://www.familiesusa.org/resources/publications/reports/hidden-health-tax-findings.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/06/24/11-facts-about-the-affordable-care-act/

19. Thank you and remember to vote!
“ Whenever the people are Non-partisan voting and candidate information:
well-informed, they can be League of Women Voters
Ohio Votes
trusted with their own
Ohio Secretary of State
government. ”
- Thomas Jefferson
Near Hocking Hills, Ohio