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Crimean Occupation Tax
(Confidential draft)
Presentation of H. Van Rompuy
President of the European Council
to the European Council
Crimean Occupation Tax (COT)
• Tax on all Russian energy imported in the
EU: Oil, Gas, Coal
• Medium intensity
• Gradually increasing up to 25%
Source: European Council
Benefits
• Easy to understand in EU & Russia
• Aimed at restoring International law &
Borders
• Allows market to reduce EU energy
dependence on Russia
• Generates revenue to save energy
• Funds Ukraine
• Russia controls cancellation
Projected COT Revenue
• €25 Billion averaged annually
– €20 Billion EU
– €5 Billion Ukraine (grants)
• COT -> energy efficiency fund €1 invest -> €2 gain
• Countries that pay COT tax
– with most initial pain -> get most future gain
– 80% of initial pain stays in country
• As of 2016 Russia funds COT 100% to preserve EU income
– initial pain countries get gain pro rata
• Russia funds 50% of 2016-2020 EU energy preservation
investments
Source: European Council
Energy Efficiency is Key
Estimated savings from current
commitments on energy efficiency
Source: European Commission
Source: European Commission
Reaping the Benefits of a Fully integrated
energy market up to 2030
Connecting and Diversifying
COT impact on Russia
• Less government income
– Russian government is largely funded through energy
export tax
– Less money for military
• No to negative economic growth 2015-2020
• Alternative customers are not easy to obtain
– Important players not really in need
– China, US
– No margin for Russian export tax in recent China gas deal
– Reachable only through expensive LNG transport
• No margin for Russian export tax
• subsidizing COT tax is cheaper for Russia
COT impact on EU
• Reduced dependency on Russian energy
• Stage one initial pain but funds Ukraine
• Russia cannot afford to lose EU market : Russia
energy price + COT = market price
• Stage two Russia funds Ukraine for duration of
Crimean occupation + 50% of EU energy efficiency
effort
Source: European Council
Worst case scenario
• Russian stops all energy supplies to EU
• Causes Russian budget reduction of €223 billion to just €89
billion = economic suicide
• EU alternatives in place:
– Saudi Arabia will supply Russia oil shortfall
– Coal from US, Canada, South Africa
– Gas substituted through startup of 10 nuclear power
plants
– Gas substituted through coal
Crimean Occupation Tax

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Crimean Occupation Tax

  • 1. Crimean Occupation Tax (Confidential draft) Presentation of H. Van Rompuy President of the European Council to the European Council
  • 2. Crimean Occupation Tax (COT) • Tax on all Russian energy imported in the EU: Oil, Gas, Coal • Medium intensity • Gradually increasing up to 25% Source: European Council
  • 3. Benefits • Easy to understand in EU & Russia • Aimed at restoring International law & Borders • Allows market to reduce EU energy dependence on Russia • Generates revenue to save energy • Funds Ukraine • Russia controls cancellation
  • 4. Projected COT Revenue • €25 Billion averaged annually – €20 Billion EU – €5 Billion Ukraine (grants) • COT -> energy efficiency fund €1 invest -> €2 gain • Countries that pay COT tax – with most initial pain -> get most future gain – 80% of initial pain stays in country • As of 2016 Russia funds COT 100% to preserve EU income – initial pain countries get gain pro rata • Russia funds 50% of 2016-2020 EU energy preservation investments Source: European Council
  • 5. Energy Efficiency is Key Estimated savings from current commitments on energy efficiency Source: European Commission
  • 6. Source: European Commission Reaping the Benefits of a Fully integrated energy market up to 2030 Connecting and Diversifying
  • 7. COT impact on Russia • Less government income – Russian government is largely funded through energy export tax – Less money for military • No to negative economic growth 2015-2020 • Alternative customers are not easy to obtain – Important players not really in need – China, US – No margin for Russian export tax in recent China gas deal – Reachable only through expensive LNG transport • No margin for Russian export tax • subsidizing COT tax is cheaper for Russia
  • 8. COT impact on EU • Reduced dependency on Russian energy • Stage one initial pain but funds Ukraine • Russia cannot afford to lose EU market : Russia energy price + COT = market price • Stage two Russia funds Ukraine for duration of Crimean occupation + 50% of EU energy efficiency effort Source: European Council
  • 9. Worst case scenario • Russian stops all energy supplies to EU • Causes Russian budget reduction of €223 billion to just €89 billion = economic suicide • EU alternatives in place: – Saudi Arabia will supply Russia oil shortfall – Coal from US, Canada, South Africa – Gas substituted through startup of 10 nuclear power plants – Gas substituted through coal