Today's supply chain processes are inside-out not outside-in. To transform planning to improve reliability and relevancy, the processes need to change to be outside-in. This journey sounds simple, but it requires the transformation of planning processes.
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Why Outside In?
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1. No company was ready
for the pandemic. The
changing market is an
opportunity for growth.
2. Great opportunity to
kick-off a new initiative
to build outside-in
processes. Need to
build industry-based
models using supply
chain leadership.
3. An opportunity to
imagine the supply
chain of the future from
the customer back.
12. Planning Horizons
⬤ Week 2 ⬤ Month 3 ⬤ Month 18 ⬤ Year 5
Executional
Operational
Tactical
Strategic
Granularity: Daily or Hourly
Forecast Horizon: With the order duration
Process Cadence: Daily or hourly
Granularity: Weekly or Daily
Forecast Horizon: Within the Freeze Duration
Process Cadence: Weekly or Daily
Granularity: Quarterly, Monthly or Weekly
Depending on the business
Forecast Horizon: End of the Freeze Duration
through the Period Required for Asset
Planning
Focus: Planning for Constraints and Aggregate
Buying
Process Frequency: Monthly
Granularity: Yearly, Quarterly, or
Monthly
Forecast Horizon: Depends on the
Goal
Review Frequency: Depends on the
Process Goals
Transactional
Granularity: Daily or Hourly
Forecast Horizon: Within a transaction
Process Cadence: Daily or hourly
Our focus
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Project Zebra timeline
March
Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun
1 2 3 Supply
L2
5 6 7
8 9 10 Deman
d L3
12
13 14
15 16 17 Supply
L3
19
20 21
22 23 24 Joint
Session
26
27 28
29 30 Readout
April
Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun
Demand
L4
2 3 4
5 6 Network Supply
L4
9 10 11
12 13 14 Demand
L5
16 17 18
19 20 21 Supply
L5
23 24 25
26 27 28 Demand
L6
Readou
t
May
Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun
1 2
3 4 5 Supply L6
7 8 9
10 11 12 CANCEL
14 15 16
17 18 19 Demand
L7
21 22 23
24 25 Network Supply L7
28 29 30
June
Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun
1 2 Demand
L8
4 5 6
7 8 9 Supply
L8
11 12 13
14 15 16 Joint
Session
18 19 20
21 22 23 Joint
Session
25 26 27
28 29 30
Demand Sub Team Supply Sub Team Networking Opportunities Key Dates
Kickoff
July
Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun
Demand
L9
2 3 4
5 6 7 Supply
L9
9 10 11
12 13 14 Joint
Session
16 17 18
19 20 21 Testin
g
start
23 24 25
27 28 29 30 31
storyboards
August
Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Sat Sun
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
9 10 11 12 13 14 15
16 17 18 19 20 21 22
23 24 25 26 27 28 29
30 31
Persona view
storyboards for new
capabilities
Basis for L4 blueprint
“AS IS” state of
planning processes
and pain points
“TO BE” high level
capabilities for
planning proceses
and pain points
Solution mockups
reviews and signup for
testing
Internal review of L4
L4 process blueprints
reviewed within the
Supply/Demand groups
Supply chain excellence
with ASCM
AOTP reviews
Test cases alignment with
the companies
Business testing
Preparation for launch of
educational materials
Prep for Sept-Oct outreach
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Methodology
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River of Demand Activity
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River of Demand Activity
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Changing the
Paradigm
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Summary
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Market-to-Market
Orchestration
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Capabilities
Descriptor Definition of Capabilities
Market-Knowledge Graph A continual governor across sell, deliver, make and source to gauge the success of the plan against actuals and align functions to a
balanced scorecard
Market-Driven Demand Management Use of market signals to assess baseline or market potential and evaluate the “forecastability” of the signal (COV). Ties to sensing and
listening capabilities. Baseline runs through demand shaping, price and supply chain planning applications.
Demand Visibility Translation of baseline demand by role with configurability to understand the impact of mix, price, volume and margin.
Digital Twin A parallel model to enable what-if scenarios by planners/role in a sandbox environment.
Bullwhip Eliminator Translation of baseline market requirements by role with minimal latency
Rules Automation The tie of segmentation logic to ATP and allocation through a rules-based ontology to automate fulfillment
Listening Post Translation of unstructured text into a demand or supply signal
Sensing Translation of streaming data into operational and executional planning
Collaboration Sharing of customer or supplier data in a meaningful way by role.
Synchronization and Time Horizon
Consumption
Bottoms up and tops down planning across applications with market-driven consumption logic
Planning Effectiveness Dashboard Monitoring of planning effectiveness by role
Autonomous Planning Continual learning based on planning effectiveness and market shifts.
25. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
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Bosch : Case
Study
Rajat Bhargav
VP, Product Management
o9 Solutions
26. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
About the Study
26
● B/S/H/ is a home appliances manufacturer and owns
well-known appliance brands such as Bosch & Siemens
● The study focused on the dishwasher product category in
the US
● The demand representing ~80% of sales was analyzed for
a 5-year period
● Consumer demand, retailer inventories and orders,
manufacturer shipments as well as industry-wide sales
and promotion calendars were studied.
27. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
Bullwhip
The Bullwhip effect is the amplification and
distortion of market consumption in
organizational silos.
Consumer Demand (POS) Sell-in Orders
28. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
Bullwhip
High Amplification Low Amplification
Where the business
process is consumer
demand focused the
amplification is low
A Items: top 80% of revenue C Items: last 5% of revenue
33 SKUs 143 SKUs
29. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
Allocation
Latency
Process
Latency
● There’s process latency
introduced by organizational
processes as well as the ordering
pattern
● Took several months to put a
formal allocation process to
manage surging demand
30. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
Demand Shifting & Shaping
Promotions are the primary demand levers for demand shaping & shifting
1/8/2017
1/29/2017
2/19/2017
3/12/2017
4/2/2017
4/23/2017
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1/5/2020
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1/17/2021
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3/21/2021
4/11/2021
5/2/2021
5/23/2021
6/13/2021
7/4/2021
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3 Qtr4 Qtr1 Qtr2 Qtr3
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
31. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
Why do we have these problems?
Absence of Market-driven
Processes and Architecture
● Processes are married to channel
orders
● Tools are not setup for market
demand
Organizational Silos
● Market sensing and tracking
information is often available
● It is just not exploited for all its
uses
1 2
32. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter
Why do we have these problems?
Using Consumer Demand Data
● Retailers are all at differing levels of
maturity in sharing data
● Cleansing and harmonizing the data
is a constant activity
● Syndicated data sources are
underutilized
Market Drivers
● Varied source and uneven quality
● Keeping data current is essential
● Finding the relevant drivers
requires both tools and human
intuition
3 4
33. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter 33
Driver Based ML Forecasting Steps
Demand
Data
Dim Data
Promos
Market
Drivers
Forecastability
segmentation
Training & tuning
ML Algorithms
Compile Data Data Preparation
Identify Impactful
Features
Train, Tune & Validate
Models
+
Data cleansing
Feature Engineering
3
2
1 4
34. Open source content under the curation of Project Zebra charter 34
Caveats
● Appropriate level for Market Drivers – Time and Product Granularity as well
as Forecast Horizon
● Pandemic correction – Statistics have been another lamentable casualty
● You will need predictions for Market Drivers; which has the same
drawbacks of any forecast
● Competitor activity and Performance