1. Loans Close To Expiration 2009092902
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1. Loans Close To Expiration 2009092902

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A quick analysis on loan funding time in order to understand the growing number of loans approaching expiration

A quick analysis on loan funding time in order to understand the growing number of loans approaching expiration

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1. Loans Close To Expiration 2009092902 1. Loans Close To Expiration 2009092902 Presentation Transcript

    • More loans are approaching expiration than we have previously seen as of the 29 th of September
    • Loans are funding more slowly in September relative to the rest of 2009
    • Slower funding time may be driven by increase in loan posting levels ; i.e. loan supply has increased
    Loans close to expiration Summary
  • Loans close to expiration Background: More than 60 loans are close to their expiration date Number of loans Days until expiration Number of loans Days until expiration Distribution of loans by days until expiration As of 23 Sep 2009 , end-of-day Distribution of loans by days until expiration As of 28 Sep 2009 , end-of-day
    • It seems as though a large number of “expiring” loans have funded in the past 6 days
      • 185 loans were 7 days from expiration at the end of the day on September 23 rd , but this number was down to 62 loans (within 2 days of expiration) at the end of the day on September 28 th
    • However, this number of 62 loans still seems to be higher than in the past
    • This raises two questions:
      • At what rate are loans being funded when they approach expiration?
      • Why are so many loans close to their expiration date?
  • Loans close to expiration Background: Loan decay rate graph explanation Fraction of loans still fundraising 1 Days since posted to kiva.org Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org Loan decay rate graph July 2009
      • 1 All non-refunded loans
    • How to read the graph:
    • Loans are posted at the back of the graph
    • The faster the surface drops to the “floor”, the faster the loans raised
    • When the surface hits the “floor” of the graph, there are no more loans fundraising from that date
    • Loans posted early in the month are on the right, loans posted later in the month are on the left
    • If the fraction of loans still fundraising is non-zero 30 days after being posted, they will expire
      • In this example, no loans expired
    100% of loans are fundraising when they are posted No loans remain when the fraction of loans still fundraising = 0% Loans funded very quickly here
  • Loans close to expiration Loans in August funded more quickly then in July
      • 1 All non-refunded loans
    Fraction of loans still fundraising 1 Days since posted to kiva.org Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org Loan decay rate graph July 2009 Fraction of loans still fundraising 1 Days since posted to kiva.org Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org Loan decay rate graph August 2009 Loans funded more quickly toward the end of August Still, no loans approached expiration
  • Loans close to expiration Loans in September are funding more slowly than July or August
      • 1 All non-refunded loans
    Fraction of loans still fundraising 1 Days since posted to kiva.org Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org Loan decay rate graph September 2009 Fraction of loans still fundraising 1 Days since posted to kiva.org Day of month the loan was posted to kiva.org Loan decay rate graph August 2009 The surface ends where the date is greater than 29 Sep
  • Loans close to expiration Loan funding rate has decreased significantly in September Fraction of loans still fundraising 1 Days since posted to kiva.org Month of the year the loan was posted to kiva.org Loan decay rate graph Jan 2009 - Sep 2009
      • 1 All non-refunded loans
    • Funding rate decrease:
    • Fastest funding were on loans posted to the website in March 2009
    • Slower funding time in September may be due to decrease in loan share purchases
    • The decrease in funding rate may be a direct result of high loan posting levels:
    A significant number of loans are nearing their expiration date, which hasn’t happened yet this year Higher-than normal fraction of loans still fundraising Feb Apr Jun Aug Sep Jul May Mar Jan Amount posted ($M) Month