1. Challenge: Disparate research communities
Geophysical modeling
of the climate system
(Global climate system
models, CMIP)
Empirical measurement of
human and ecological
climate impacts
(statistical, experiemental)
Global models for
optimal management
(DICE, FUND, PAGE)
Transparent,
open-source, updatable
system for rapid translation
and comparison of results
Hsiang, Kopp & Oppenheimer The Human Impacts of Climate Change
2. V1.0: Direct exposure to temperature under 2 C warming
Avg. temperature change from 2°C warming
1 2 3 4 5
Co
Log(Population)
0 2 4 6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Experienced temperature change from 2°C warming
(°C, annual avg.)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Maximum
Minimum
Average
Interquartile
range
Multi-model distribution
(20 models, CMIP3)
Hsiang, Kopp & Oppenheimer The Human Impacts of Climate Change
3. Example application 2: Labor-force productivity
USA CAN WEU JPK ANZ CEE FSU MDE CAM SAM SAS SEA CHI NAF SSA SIS
Percentchangeper2°Cinglobalmeantemperature
Labor productivity impact
(by FUND region per 2°C
in global mean temperature)
Mean temperature during month (°C)
Relativeproductivity
Mean temperature during month (°C)
Additionalexposuretime
(densityofmonths)
Change in temperature exposure at
point of economic output (global)
Labor productivity response (empirical estimate)
Hsiang, Kopp & Oppenheimer The Human Impacts of Climate Change
4. Example application 3: Agricultural output
Source: Hsiang, Lobell, Roberts & Schlenker (in preperation)
0 10 20 30 40
0
Mean temperature during growing season (°C)
0 10 20 30 40
Wheat
0 10 20 30 40
0
1
Mean temperature during growing season (°C)
Relativeyield
Maize
0 10 20 30 40
0
1
Relativeyield Soybeans
0 10 20 30 40
Mean temperature during growing season (°C)
Cotton
0 10 20 30 40
Mean temperature during all months (°C)
point of cultivation (USA) point of cultivation (global)
(densityofmonths)
5. Comparison with global “optimal management” models
0 1 2
0
Cotton
Wheat
Maize
Soy
Avg.
Change in global mean temperature (°C)
Percentchange(yield)
Damage to USA agriculture
Empirical
FUND
Hsiang, Kopp & Oppenheimer The Human Impacts of Climate Change
