i-25 White Paper                Material World 2025Visions, Challenges and Opportunities for Cross-Boundary Innovators    ...
i-25 White Paper                                               Table OF Contents1.     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.....................
i-25 White Paper1. Executive SummarySuper Efficiency Enables Material World 2025Material World 2025 means “super efficienc...
i-25 White Paper2. BackgroundThe Inception of the i-25 TeamIn 2010, Yokogawa created a set of future scenarios that descri...
i-25 White PaperThe Ongoing Activities of the i-25 TeamWe named the visionary team “i-25”, which is an acronym for “Innova...
i-25 White Paper3. Shared Vision of Material World 2025Constraints Drive InnovationFor this vision to become a reality, a ...
i-25 White PaperSuper Efficiency Comes TrueMaterial World 2025 means, “super efficiency comes true”. It is a world that ha...
i-25 White Paper4. Reinvent Traditional IndustriesSustaining Innovation Towards Super EfficiencyThe i-25 team believes tha...
i-25 White PaperStandards defined module interfaces and assured interoperability, enabling any given companyto quickly and...
i-25 White Paper5. Invent New IndustriesDisruptive Innovation towards Super EfficiencyWhile sustaining innovations in the ...
i-25 White Paper          organic EL film could give birth to a wide variety of new household appliancesLearning from exot...
i-25 White Paper6.   Expanding HorizonsDuring the short time the i-25 team was together, they envisioned many different po...
i-25 White Papersea-farming as an important source of food in the future.In 2025, most major cities could follow the lead ...
i-25 White Paperfuture growth. The Material World will deliver new chemicals and biochemicals that allow theseresources to...
i-25 White Paper7.   ConclusionIt is the i-25 team’s shared conclusion that the key enabler of a prosperous “Material Worl...
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Material world workshop (July,2011) whitepaper

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Material World 2025

  1. 1. i-25 White Paper Material World 2025Visions, Challenges and Opportunities for Cross-Boundary Innovators © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 1/15
  2. 2. i-25 White Paper Table OF Contents1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................... 3 SUPER EFFICIENCY ENABLES MATERIAL WORLD 2025.................................................... 3 OPPORTUNITIES TO RE-INVENT TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES ............................................. 3 OPPORTUNITIES TO INVENT NEW INDUSTRIES ................................................................. 32. BACKGROUND.................................................................................................... 4 THE INCEPTION OF THE i-25 TEAM ................................................................................... 4 MATERIAL WORLD 2025 WORKSHOP .................................................................................. 4 THE ONGOING ACTIVITIES OF THE i-25 TEAM .................................................................. 53. SHARED VISION OF MATERIAL WORLD 2025............................................... 6 CONSTRAINTS DRIVE INNOVATION ................................................................................... 6 SUPER EFFICIENCY COMES TRUE .................................................................................... 74. RE-INVENT TRADITIONAL INDUSTRIES....................................................... 8 SUSTAINING INNOVATION TOWARDS SUPER EFFICIENCY.................................................. 8 A CASE IN POINT: CRADLE-TO-CRADLE PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY .................................. 85. INVENT NEW INDUSTRIES ............................................................................ 10 DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION TOWARDS SUPER EFFICIENCY ................................................ 10 A CASE IN POINT: LEARNING FROM MOTHER NATURE ................................................... 106. EXPANDING HORIZONS.................................................................................. 12 HORIZONS FOR INNOVATION IN MANY DIFFERENT SECTORS.......................................... 12 HORIZONS FOR INNOVATION IN BOTH MATURE AND EMERGING ECONOMIES ................. 137. CONCLUSION ................................................................................................... 15 © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 2/15
  3. 3. i-25 White Paper1. Executive SummarySuper Efficiency Enables Material World 2025Material World 2025 means “super efficiency comes true”. That is the shared vision of the i-25team, a group of visionaries that represents a diverse cross-section of both industries andacademia.There will be many constraints in the path towards 2025. As population explodes and theglobal economy expands, expect shortages of skilled labor, energy, material, water, and food,to name but a few.It is the shared view of the i-25 team that the human society will find a way to flourish. Indeed,history shows that constraints are the mother of innovation. The human appetite for a betterquality of life, combined with the increasing constraints, will galvanize people and organizationstowards “innovate and prosper” opportunities.The i-25 team envisions two major paths towards a super-efficient Material World 2025, whichare likely to surface in many different sectors within the next 15 years.Opportunities to Re-invent Traditional IndustriesThe first path will be geared towards sustaining innovations that help transform traditionalindustries. There is still significant room for improvement in traditional industries to make themmore efficient and waste free. To achieve super efficiency in traditional industries, life-cycletransparency of key resources is essential. This includes tracking energy footprints, materialfootprints, water footprints etc. over the entire supply chain. Standards and tools that facilitatecross-boundary collaboration will become the key to facilitate sustaining innovation intraditional industries.Opportunities to Invent New IndustriesThe second path will be driven by the so-called disruptive innovations that create newindustries, which either replace or build on traditional industries. While it is difficult to predictwhere and when disruptive innovations happen, dramatic efficiency improvements in thoseareas where traditional industries are heavily dependent on limited resources are goodsegment candidates. Since Mother Nature still holds many mysteries to be unlocked, expect tofind a wealth of insights leading to disruptive innovations. © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 3/15
  4. 4. i-25 White Paper2. BackgroundThe Inception of the i-25 TeamIn 2010, Yokogawa created a set of future scenarios that described possible value patternshifts that might have a profound impact on the process industry within the next 15 years.Yokogawa tested these scenarios with select visionaries in the European process industrycommunity in late 2010 and early 2011. Strong Commitment for Green Earth Material A Whole World New World High-value new Energy and ICT materials dominate Services dominateTangible Products the world economy the world economy Intangible OfferingsRetain their Value acquire new Value Let it Be & Lazy Days Oil & Gas still fuel the world economy while industries undergo a tremendous structural change No Global ConsensusUpon receiving their positive feedback to these scenarios, Yokogawa decided to invite morevisionaries into this open and pre-competitive dialog about what may happen to the processindustries. The joint interest of the team is to stimulate each other and to be ahead of the curve,preparing for and preempting discontinuous changes that might usher in new opportunities forinnovation.Material World 2025 WorkshopOn July 4th and 5th, 2011, the extended visionary team met for two days to explore the MaterialWorld scenario. This is a world where accelerated innovations in both products and processesenable a sustainable society while creating new sources of wealth for the process industries. © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 4/15
  5. 5. i-25 White PaperThe Ongoing Activities of the i-25 TeamWe named the visionary team “i-25”, which is an acronym for “Innovation in 2025”. The i-25team wishes to continue an open, pre-competitive, and cross-boundary dialog to stimulateinnovative thinking. Publishing this white paper is the first result from the meeting for sharingwith interested parties. © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 5/15
  6. 6. i-25 White Paper3. Shared Vision of Material World 2025Constraints Drive InnovationFor this vision to become a reality, a perfect storm of “constraints driving innovation” will haveto change the landscape of various industries.From the mega trends, it is likely that we will face an explosive growth in population over thenext 15 years, which in turn will push up the global demands for energy, material, water, food,and other necessities of the industrialized society. Meanwhile, under this scenario, globalawareness for sustainability will have reached sufficient levels forcing global consensus onpolicies and regulations.As a result, two often-conflicting yet complementary forces will be unleashed: the force ofdisruptive innovations spearheaded by bold start-ups and the force of sustainable innovationsperfected by big incumbent companies. New innovative industries will emerge while traditionalindustries will also re-invent themselves to capture the new values created in Material World2025. © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 6/15
  7. 7. i-25 White PaperSuper Efficiency Comes TrueMaterial World 2025 means, “super efficiency comes true”. It is a world that has successfullyovercome the multiple shortage constraints of energy, material, water etc. -- not by lowering ourquality of life, but by innovating our way out of the constraints.It is a world where there is no waste in the industrial supply chain. “100% conversion to value”has become the reality. Furthermore, the majority of the products used daily in our society arebuilt on the “cradle-to-cradle” concept, enabling close to 100% recycling. Measuring the energyefficiency of these recycling materials and products requires the establishment of a newreference index; ‘carbon footprint’ is one example.This movement changes not only industry but also individuals and society. Every personunderstands that they play a key role in the sustainable world, such as recycling waste materialor products in the home. In addition, society establishes the infrastructure for recycling andcooperates closely with industry to complete the value chain of recycling in an economical way.As we have learned from history, innovative technologies have opened the door to new worldsand improved our quality of life: innovative technologies and ideas lead us to the MaterialWorld. 100% Conversion To Value Transparent & Sustainable Sources of Sustainable Lifestyles Collaborative Material, Water, Energy & Consumer Behavior Industry Supply Chain 100% Recycling An Image of Super Efficiency © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 7/15
  8. 8. i-25 White Paper4. Reinvent Traditional IndustriesSustaining Innovation Towards Super EfficiencyThe i-25 team believes that the first place to look for innovative opportunities, to usher in superefficiency, is traditional industries. Traditional industries, especially heavy process industries,are very conservative in nature and are not the natural candidate for innovation. Shortages ofmaterials, energy, water, skilled workforce, etc. are already a very real and pressing issue intraditional industries. The i-25 team views these constraints as a long-overdue wake-up call --the biggest potential driver of innovation that can evolve traditional industries into the backboneof a prosperous “Material World 2025”.It is the shared view of the i-25 team that there is an opportunity for improvement in traditionalindustries to make them more efficient and waste-free. The barrier for further improvement isnot necessarily technologies as there are already many technologies available that can helptransform traditional industries. What the i-25 team identified as major barriers to innovation intraditional industries are, among others, risk-averse conservatism, standards and regulationsperpetuating “the way it has always been done here”, and lack of cross-boundarycollaborations. Conversely, if open innovation can become the norm in traditional industries, itcould start a chain reaction that may propel the most conservative sectors into the leaders ofsustaining innovation.A Case in Point: Cradle-to-Cradle Production EfficiencySince the conservatism of traditional industries is not a single company’s making, the i-25 teamfocused on the challenge of cross-boundary collaboration. The recurrent theme here was theCradle-to-Cradle concept1 as promoted by Michael Braungart, a path towards zero-wastesupply chain. It means creating an overall supply chain that enables 100% conversion to value,encompassing 100% recycling back to feedstock. For this Cradle-to-Cradle concept to becomea reality, it requires more than technologies alone.First, it requires a pro-innovation business eco-system that promotes rapid diffusion ofinnovations. The conservative sectors may be able to learn the best practices of "fastinnovation from the success of the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector. "2The ICT sector, thanks to digitalization, has introduced a wide variety of new technologies.Digital circuits replaced analog circuits and digital circuits further transformed into software.1 Michael Braungart, “Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the Way We Make Things”, 20022 Kouichi Ogawa, “Business Model Innovation for Standardization”, 2009 © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 8/15
  9. 9. i-25 White PaperStandards defined module interfaces and assured interoperability, enabling any given companyto quickly and easily harness the state-of-the-art innovations. The i-25 team believes thatpro-innovation standards will play a key role in replicating this open innovation model in themore conservative sectors. Standards & Inter-The second major requirement is the Operabilitytransparency of the entire supply chain.The traditional industries can benefit Pro-Innovation Business Eco-Systemfrom: 1) Efficiency metrics that areconsistent over the supply chain and2) Lifecycle traceability tools that can Transparency of the Entire Supply Chaintrack such sustainability metrics asenergy footprint, material footprint, Supportive Mindset in Visualization, Management, Policywater footprint, etc. over the life-cycle Tracking & Makers and End Decision Support Consumersof a given end product. To reiterate,cross-boundary collaborations to put Education, Human Capitalconsistent metrics and tools in placewill be the key. Furthermore, as the Cradle-to-Cradle Production Efficiencyamount of data needed to calculate and visualize these key metrics will be overwhelming,advanced visualization, and modeling mechanisms will be a necessity. The ICT sector providesan interesting concept called big data3. It is a concept to handle the wealth of data coming fromthe so-called ubiquitous computing environment, where sensors are embedded everywhere inour society. The big data concept aims at getting real value out of this huge repository of databy automated algorisms that support and/or eliminate the need for human decision-making,thereby reducing information overload.The third major requirement is the supportive mindset in company management, policy makers,and end consumers. The i-25 team firmly believes a worldwide commitment to continuousinvestments in education and human capital is necessary to enable the reinvention andrevitalization of the traditional industries.3“Big data: the next frontier for innovation, competition, and productivity”, McKinseyGlobal Institute, May 2011, http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/big_data/index.asp © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 9/15
  10. 10. i-25 White Paper5. Invent New IndustriesDisruptive Innovation towards Super EfficiencyWhile sustaining innovations in the traditional industries will go a long way for a prosperousMaterial World 2025, the i-25 team sees exciting new opportunities for disruptive innovations atthe same time. Disruptive innovations often arise outside the traditional industries, creatingpreviously unknown categories that could either replace or complement the traditionalindustries.By their very nature, it is hard to “predict” disruptive innovations, but they would certainly bemost welcome in those segments where traditional industries are heavily dependent on limitedresources. If disruptive innovations allow us to harness the power of biochemical reactions, forexample, we could envision a “biochemical complex” that applies biochemical reactions to theproduction of bulk material. For that reason, it may be possible to replace and/or supplementsynthetic chemical processing with less hazardous and more sustainable methods ofproduction.A Case in Point: Learning from Mother NatureOne may not need to look too far to gain new insights that stimulate disruptive innovation.Mother Nature provides us with many examples of super-efficiency in biochemical processes,which could suggest two paths toward disruptive innovations. One path is finding novel ways toutilize organic materials we see in abundance around us, while the other is learning from exoticnatural environment discoveries found in new frontiers such as deep sea and space.Utilization of organic materials can have multiplying effects on sustainability. Organic materialsare lighter and more resilient. Discovery of new applications for organic materials will allow theindustry to replace heavier and difficult-to-handle materials with metals that are lighter, safer,and easier to manage.We see emergent/potential applications of organic materials in areas such as:  Light elastic, high-tension, fibers that allow safe and more fuel-efficient transportation replacing steel and aluminum in automobiles, aircraft, and trains  Organic Electroluminescence (EL) devices that could replace LEDs, electric bulbs, and fluorescent tubes for lighting  Fully organic batteries based on electron-rich organic membranes, replacing metals such as Mn, Pb, or Ni-Cd in batteries. The combination of organic film battery and © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 10/15
  11. 11. i-25 White Paper organic EL film could give birth to a wide variety of new household appliancesLearning from exotic natural environments will take time due to their prohibiting locations, butonce unlocked, their potential to stimulate new applications and industries could be enormous.For example, we normally live in an ecosystem of moderate temperature and pressure withsolar energy and photosynthesis from chlorophyll. Ocean science in the 20th centurydiscovered an incredible deep-water hydrothermal vent, where biological communities exist atvery high temperatures and pressures in a nearly supercritical condition. The food chain, inthese areas, started from chemosynthetic bacteria living on sulfur compounds such ashydrogen sulfide. A study of the biochemistry and DNA sequence of such microbes couldprovide the possibility of innovative energy and food creation as well as the utilization ofdeep-water materials such as rare metals and other valuable chemicals. Other environmentsthat are worth looking into include supercritical state of materials and microgravity in space.For biochemical processes and organic materials to become an integral part of the industrialsupply chain, new measurement and analysis technologies need to be developed. Sensingsolutions must be ready for accurate in-vivo or in-situ measurement of biochemical processes.Some of these new instruments must be able to operate under extreme conditions, helping tounlock the mysteries of the exotic environment. Accurate In-Vivo / In-Situ Measurement of Biochemical Processes © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 11/15
  12. 12. i-25 White Paper6. Expanding HorizonsDuring the short time the i-25 team was together, they envisioned many different possiblescenarios across mature and emerging economies and across many different sectors of theeconomy, but were only able to explore a limited number to any depth. Below is a summary ofother possibilities to expand the horizons and open up several more opportunities for 2025.Horizons for Innovation in Many Different SectorsThe i-25 team envisioned many opportunities for both disruptive and sustaining innovations inmany sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, water supply, energy supply, andtransportation that go well beyond the process industries. Many of the challenges and wishesidentified during the workshop imply that similar sets of innovation will happen all over thesupply chain and infrastructure of our society. Food, Water & Transportation Energy & Manufacturing Healthcare Agriculture & Mobility Material Invent -Biochemical -Cloud-based -Accelerated -Full-sensory -Untapped energy & New production healthcare services photosynthesis communications material sources Industries processes doing & wearable devices doing away with doing away with such as away with synthetic doing away with chemical fertilizers physical travel hydrothermal vents processes intrusive health Disruptive checks Innovation Towards Super Efficiency Re-invent -Cradle-to-cradle -Faster scale-up -Sea farming as an -Smart ground -Alternative Traditional efficiency & and less time to alternative food transportation more hydrocarbon energy Industries transparency via market of new source accessible and & material sources introduction of drugs via full usage -More efficient safer than cars such as shale gas cross-industry of modeling desalination Sustaining standards and technologies Innovation tracking tools Towards Super EfficiencyThe i-25 team postulated that full sensory communication with sensors located in processes,transportation systems and even shopping malls communicating directly with you will enablebetter remote operations, improved awareness and safety and reduced travel requirements.The team admitted though that technology was not ready yet for this but could be emerging inthe 2025 timeframe. As the global population continues to expand and with added technologyimprovements, the team sees the extraction of ever greater resources from the sea beyonddeep sea oil drilling. With the continuing depletion of fish and other seafood, the team views © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 12/15
  13. 13. i-25 White Papersea-farming as an important source of food in the future.In 2025, most major cities could follow the lead of Singapore and London and virtually eliminatethe need for cars. It is possible by 2025 the USA will develop a nationwide transportationsystem not built solely on air transportation. In any case, the i-25 team wants reliable,affordable, and safe transportation by 2025. We see moves in that direction now with smallelectric powered urban vehicles. As these become ubiquitous, we will see easy methods ofrecharging them at charging sites while taking a coffee break and catching up on e-mail.Life expectancy has improved significantly in the past quarter century and the i-25 team seesthe health and medical sector continuing that trend. New materials will help with thedevelopment of less intrusive sensing devices and medical treatments. Wearable monitors –maybe even as part of the wristwatch – will allow a daily check on our health via cloud basedapplications linked to our doctor’s office and local hospital. Someday personal medicines willaddress problems that have yet to occur.Maybe the biggest issue in this energy hungry world – the team asked as a final question “Howdo we exploit completely new energy sources such as space, hydrothermal vents and so on.While this will not be an issue in the 2025 horizon, as hydrocarbon based energy will still beavailable, new materials will not only allow us to obtain more oil from each well and to getaccess to new sources such as shale gas, they will also allow us to harness energy sourcesfrom previously unknown areas such as thermal vents in volcanoes. As space travel andexploration also become a part of daily life and journeys to the moon and beyond becomeroutine, the team sees the ability to harness energy from space as something that will start togrow.Horizons for Innovation in both Mature and Emerging EconomiesThe i-25 team thinks that while the mature economies of the USA, Western Europe, and Japanwill remain stable and possibly even decline from a technology point of view, the boomingBRICS economies of Brazil , Russia, India and China will drive innovation to maintain theirgrowth in the use and re-use of key natural resources. In addition, the Next 11 economiesincluding Korea, Pakistan, and Vietnam will start to put additional demands on these limitedresources such as energy, water, and food. How will they get the energy they need such aslight, water, food, and mobility?The i-25 team sees the ability to efficiently and cleanly generate, transmit, and store energyand to supply safe and clean water to all as a key part of the BRICS and Next 11 economies © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 13/15
  14. 14. i-25 White Paperfuture growth. The Material World will deliver new chemicals and biochemicals that allow theseresources to last longer, be re-used, or recycled. As water becomes the ‘new oil’ it will createrenewed interest in desalination technology, which allows desalination of seawater locally or inpeople’s homes. Small local power generation systems, based on new very high efficiency jetengine turbine technology, will allow people in remote areas to have light and power atreasonable cost.There are some common themes that run through these expanded horizons. Limitations to vitalresources such as water and energy will drive us to investigate re-use and recoverytechnologies, as well as more sophisticated exploration techniques.Several members of the i-25 team envision ‘humanity’ reappearing as employers andmanagers start to treat human resources as ‘human’ again. Due to the shortage of skilledpeople, rewarding and challenging jobs will become available again as companies strive tokeep their valuable people.This also opens up another facet of 2025 – predictive healthcare using sensors that can predictmedical conditions before they happen and tailor pharmaceuticals to address individual needs.According to the i-25 team there will be breakthrough improvements in existing technologiesthrough better risk management and more accurate simulation technologies. These,breakthroughs will encourage a culture of innovation and re-invention supported by politicianswho have a good knowledge of science and engineering. © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 14/15
  15. 15. i-25 White Paper7. ConclusionIt is the i-25 team’s shared conclusion that the key enabler of a prosperous “Material World2025” is cross-boundary collaboration among visionary people and organizations.Be it sustaining innovations that redefine traditional industries or disruptive innovations thatusher in new industries, no single company or organization can lay the necessary groundwork.Pro-innovation people and organizations need to work together to help the industry embracenew standards, new performance metrics, new mindsets, and new ecosystems that areconducive to innovation.The i-25 team desires to maintain and expand its open, pre-competitive, and cross-boundarydialog for the future. Both face-to-face workshops and online networking allows the i-25 team tokeep identifying new challenges.Since this is an open group of visionaries, new visionaries are welcome who are willing tocontribute to such a cross-boundary dialog. For more information about the i-25 team, pleasecontact Dr. Maurice Wilkins at Maurice.wilkins@us.yokogawa.com © The i-25 Team, July 2011 Page 15/15

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