Demand Curve - Finance institutions need to focus on expanding market

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Financial inclusion is a stated policy of the government and the central bank, but it will take some concerted effort to bring more of the population into the network of formal financial services. The current spread of formal finance network is quite inadequate. At least 60% of Indians do not have access to the banking system. Even though the average number of people that a bank branch serves is around 15,000, there are six states where each branch serves around 20,000. These states are mostly in the east. The inadequate spread of banking is reflected in the data on credit as well. On average, only 16% of Indian households have taken loans from institutional agencies—commercial banks and cooperative societies. Non-institutional agencies, including moneylenders, friends and relatives, have a higher reach at 22%. Again, sharp regional differences show up, with Kerala coming up high on indicators of banking and finance. As many as 14 of the top 20 districts that have access to institutional credit are from Kerala. The districts of Kottayam, Kannur and Idukki top the list, with at least 65% of households taking loans from institutional agencies. Kerala, however, has some peculiar characteristics that help explain this widespread integration with the formal financial system—high literacy and educational levels, well-connected rural areas as density of population is high, and remittances from overseas migrant workforce. All these make for an environment more conducive towards higher access to formal finance. At the other end of the spectrum are districts where less than 1% of households have taken credit from institutional agencies. These are mostly in Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Mizoram, where the banking system is extremely underdeveloped given constraints of a low density of population, poor connectivity and law and order concerns. In regard to the penetration of non-institutional loans, the focus shifts from Kerala at the top end. Here, the top 24 districts have penetration ranging from 50-53% and are mostly located in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. These are the states where microfinance and self-help groups have spread into the hinterland. The districts languishing at the bottom remain the ones from the hill states. In fact, 64 districts have less than 7% penetration of non-institutional loans. Of these, two are from Andaman and Nicobar, 13 from Arunachal Pradesh, 14 from Jammu and Kashmir, seven from Meghalaya, eight from Mizoram, four from Sikkim, 13 from Uttarakhand and three from West Bengal. At a broader level, there is a clear need for better services in the hill states. The question remains whether the government measures of banking correspondents, using post offices, etc., will reap dividends in expanding the financial network in areas where topography and socio-economic characteristics remain tough barriers to overcome. Essentially, there are two clear characteristics of household access to finance. One, the bulk of the population is financially underserved and rely on informal lending. Two, non-institutional agencies have together achieved a much higher penetration than institutional agencies. The need of the hour is for financial institutions to focus more on expanding the market rather than flog the existing ones. And for this, innovative use of technology just might be the way to go.

Business Economy & Finance

Finance institutions need to focus on expanding market On average, only 16% of Indian households have taken loans from institutional agencies--commercial banks and cooperative societies. Financial inclusion is a stated policy of the government and the central bank, but it will take some concerted effort to bring more of the population into the network of formal financial services. The current spread of formal finance network is quite inadequate. At least 60% of Indians do not have access to the banking system. Even though the average number of people that a bank branch serves is around 15,000, there are six states where each branch serves around 20,000. These states are mostly in the east. The inadequate spread of banking is reflected in the data on credit as well. On average, only 16% of Indian households have taken loans from institutional agencies—commercial banks and cooperative societies. Non-institutional agencies, including moneylenders, friends and relatives, have a higher reach at 22%. Again, sharp regional differences show up, with Kerala coming up high on indicators of banking and finance. As many as 14 of the top 20 districts that have access to institutional credit are from Kerala. The districts of Kottayam, Kannur and Idukki top the list, with at least 65% of households taking loans from institutional agencies. Kerala, however, has some peculiar characteristics that help explain this widespread integration with the formal financial system—high literacy and educational levels, well-connected rural areas as density of population is high, and remittances from overseas migrant workforce. All these make for an environment more conducive towards higher access to formal finance. Source: Indian Financial Scape Demand Curve

At the other end of the spectrum are districts where less than 1% of households have taken credit from institutional agencies. These are mostly in Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Mizoram, where the banking system is extremely underdeveloped given constraints of a low density of population, poor connectivity and law and order concerns. In regard to the penetration of non-institutional loans, the focus shifts from Kerala at the top end. Here, the top 24 districts have penetration ranging from 50-53% and are mostly located in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. These are the states where microfinance and self-help groups have spread into the hinterland. The districts languishing at the bottom remain the ones from the hill states. In fact, 64 districts have less than 7% penetration of non-institutional loans. Of these, two are from Andaman and Nicobar, 13 from Arunachal Pradesh, 14 from Jammu and Kashmir, seven from Meghalaya, eight from Mizoram, four from Sikkim, 13 from Uttarakhand and three from West Bengal. At a broader level, there is a clear need for better services in the hill states. The question remains whether the government measures of banking correspondents, using post offices, etc., will reap dividends in expanding the financial network in areas where topography and socio-economic characteristics remain tough barriers to overcome. Essentially, there are two clear characteristics of household access to finance. One, the bulk of the population is financially underserved and rely on informal lending. Two, non-institutional agencies have together achieved a much higher penetration than institutional agencies. The need of the hour is for financial institutions to focus more on expanding the market rather than flog the existing ones. And for this, innovative use of technology just might be the way to go. Demand Curve is a weekly column by research firm Indicus Analytics Pvt . Ltd on consumer trends and markets.

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The Case for Increasing FDI Caps in Insurance The history of India’s political economy is replete with missed opportunities. The approach to growth and investment has been often stranded in the many romantic notions of selfreliance and what constitutes national interest. In every decade since Independence, the approach to foreign direct investment has been influenced by a mistrust triggered by a colonial hangover. Every time India has opened its doors – or windows if you please – to foreign investment, it has been characterised by gradualism in the wake of much opposition. The debates around opening or expanding FDI are similar – as it was when telecom or banking opened up for foreign investment. What is important to recognise is that every such initiative has been beneficial, delivering greater common good. Higher economic growth is driven by competition and consumer choice. Competition drives efficiency and efficiency drives growth. This is true of every country that has done well economically. It is also true of India since 1991, in segments where competition has been introduced. Any attempt to artificially introduce protection always has costs. Inefficient producers are protected, but at the expense of consumers. Consumers suffer from higher prices,bad service and limited choice. This is straightforward under-graduate economic theory. The gains to inefficient producers are more than neutralized by losses to consumers, leading to an overall deadweight welfare loss to the country. In this argument, the colour of the competition, whether it is domestic or foreign, does not matter. In addition, there is the macroeconomic argument about a current account deficit having to be met through capital account inflows and non-debt-creating FDI inflows are preferable to debt-creating capital inflows. While these broad arguments about competition and FDI are accepted, the question to ask is, why should the insurance sector not be subject to these compelling arguments? Is there anything special about insurance that rational arguments should not be applied to this sector? In every sector where India has opened up to FDI, be it manufacturing or be it services, two propositions are empirically evident. First, liberalization helps consumers. Second, fears about inefficient producers being eliminated are also vastly exaggerated. Instead, producers of goods and services adapt and survive, based on access to capital, technology, knowhow, improved management practices and customer orientation. Therefore, protection not only harms the cause of consumers, it also harms the cause of producers. There is no reason why insurance should be treated differently. And economic logic and rationale should not be conditional on whether one is within the government or is in opposition.

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The Economic Freedom of the States of India 2012 estimates economic freedom in the 20 biggest Indian states, based on data for 2011. The aim of this report—to measure the level of economic freedom within India—grows out of a larger project begun in the 1980s by the Fraser Institute and culminating in the annual Economic Freedom of the World report (co-published by the Cato Institute in the United States). That exercise has proved fruitful in establishing a strong empirical relationship between economic freedom and prosperity, growth, and improvements in the whole range of indicators of human well being. The global report has also produced an explosion of research by leading universities, think tanks and international organisations on the critical role of economic freedom to human progress, including its importance to sustaining civil and political liberty. The Cato Institute is pleased to co-publish the present report on India with Indicus Analytics and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation at a time when both India’s high growth prospects and its commitment to reform have come under scrutiny. The main highlights of this study are as follows. 1. The top state in India in economic freedom in 2011 was Gujarat. It displaced Tamil Nadu, which had been the top state in 2009. Gujarat’s freedom index score has been rising fast, and at 0.64 it is now far ahead of second-placed Tamil Nadu (0.56). Madhya Pradesh (0.56) is close behind in third position, Haryana (0.55) retains fourth position and Himachal (0.53) retains fifth position. 2. The bottom three states in 2011 were, in reverse order, Bihar, Jharkhand and West Bengal. In 2009, the reverse order was Bihar, Uttarakhand and Assam. Uttarakhand has moved up sharply from 19th to 14th position, and this improved freedom is reflected in its average GDP growth rate of 12.82 per cent in 2004-2011, the fastest among all states. This is an impressive achievement for a once-backward state. 3. Earlier the median score for economic freedom for all states had declined from 0.38 in 2005 to 0.36 in 2009. But it has now improved substantially to 0.41 in 2011. This is good news. Still the median score lags way behind Gujarat’s 0.64, so other states have a long way to go. 4. The biggest improvement has been registered by Madhya Pradesh. Its freedom index score rose from 0.42 in 2009 to 0.56 in 2011, enabling it to move up from 6th to 3rd position. This improved economic freedom was associated with acceleration in its GDP growth. This averaged 6 per cent per year from 2004-2009, but then accelerated to 9 per cent per year in 2009-2011. 5. The biggest decline in economic freedom has been recorded by Jharkhand, which slumped from 8th to 19th position. Its score declined from 0.38 to 0.31. Unsurprisingly, its GDP growth has averaged only 4.6 per cent in 2004-2011, one of the lowest among all states . Jharkhand has special problems as a heavily forested state suffering from Maoist insurrections.

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Education is clearly important in tapping the so-called demographic dividend. There is nothing automatic about a demographic dividend materializing. Among other things, that is a function of health and education outcomes. More specifically, there is question of skills. The overall skills deficit has often been flagged. For instance, in 2002, the S.P. Gupta Special Group constituted by the Planning Commission stated, “It should be noted, however, that on the average the skilled labour force at present is hardly around 6-8 per cent of the total, compared to more than 60 per cent in most of the developed and emerging developing countries.” In 2001, the Montek Singh Ahluwalia Task Force , again constituted by the Planning Commission, stated, “Only 5% of the Indian labour force in this age category has vocational skills.” While the numbers are marginally different, the Eleventh Five Year Plan document adds the following. “The NSS 61st Round results show that among persons of age 15-29 years, only about 2% are reported to have received formal vocational training and another 8% reported to have received non-formal vocational training indicating that very few young persons actually enter the world of work with any kind of formal vocational training.” Among the youth, most of those with formal training are in Kerala, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A better indicator of a State’s performance is the share of the young population that has some variety of formal training. In this, Maharashtra, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh perform well. Is this because there is better training capacity and infrastructure? Is it because industrial activity exists in these States? Is it because there is a positive correlation between some minimum level of educational attainment and acquisition of formal training? The answer is probably a combination of various factors.

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Household consumption patterns depend on many factors, and the age of the chief wage earner is a key determinant. The Indicus Indian Urban Consumer Spectrum classifies urban households into three broad categories: younger years, in which the chief wage earner is predominantly less than 34 years of age; middle years, in which the chief wage earner is mainly in the age group of 35 to 54, and mature years, households in which the chief wage earner is usually over the age of 54. At each life stage, there are different income and consumption patterns; as the chief wage earner moves into the older years, the family structure also changes. So the category of younger years does not necessarily denote younger households; in fact, households in mature years have more than 40% of its population under the age of 18. Creating consumer segments by the age of the chief wage earner of the household reveals patterns that are otherwise hidden in data. Take for instance occupations—the sector that employs the highest share of chief wage earners in younger and middle years is manufacturing, which takes up a lower share for chief wage earners in mature years. On the other hand, manufacturing falls to second slot for chief wage earners in mature years; and more interestingly, public administration/defence accounts for the third largest share of employment in this segment. This does point to the changing structure of employment over time, and also gives an indication of the income and consumption behaviour of these households. Then there is the size of the household—households where the chief wage earner is in his younger years are to a large extent small in size; close to 60% are single member households—the earning member in the city is single or married and living away from his family. This is the smallest segment, comprising less than 15% of urban households, and around 5% of urban population. The largest segment, which accounts for more than 60% of urban households, is those in which chief wage earners are in their mature years; here, a majority have five or more members and almost a quarter have more than two earning members. This, therefore, forms a bulk of urban consumer spends; and, since it includes senior citizens as well as minors, it caters to the needs of all age groups. The segment in which chief wage earners are in their middle years accounts for more than a quarter of urban households. This segment stands out as the one in which almost all households have minors; this would, therefore, be extremely cued into the needs of growing children—whether it comes to education, food or entertainment, it is in these households that children rule. The younger years segment feeds into the others as chief wage earners marry, or bring their families to the cities and have children, save to buy houses, two-wheelers, cars and so on, and the maturity of the chief wage earner naturally shows up in higher incomes and asset penetration across the groups.

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mall durables—the little items that personalize households and make each home different—can be divided into four main groups: furniture and fixtures, household appliances, recreational goods, and other personal goods including mobile handsets, watches, clocks, plastic goods and decorative items. As a group, they account for less than 2% of total household expenses, as other basic necessities such as food, travel and rent take up the bulk of the budget. The largest sub-groups in this category are other personal goods and household appliances, accounting for more than 80% and 11%, respectively, of the total expense within the group. There are variations across states. In Chandigarh, Goa and Kerala, household appliances take up close to 20% of the expenses in this category, double the average. Within this group of small durables, there is a wide variety, with prices and brands to suit every pocket, and as households move up the income ladder, they spend on higher-value items within the group; per-household annual expense on small durables, therefore, rises from Rs. 1,255 on an average in the lowest income segment, which are households earning less than Rs. 1.5 lakh a year, to Rs. 11,807 in the highest income segment of households earning more than Rs. 10 lakh a year.

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M-PESA is a mobile based transfer of money between customers, facilitated by network of retail agents. Kenya is the first country to have adopted M-PESA where the model witnessed huge success and is contributing big way in enabling financial inclusion in the country. Deployment of M-PESA in India can bring similar benefits as experienced in Kenya. Growing mobile penetration in rural areas would ensure that people are able to benefit from mobile based money transfer concept. Indian regulatory system has also been gearing up to allow technology benefits in enabling financial inclusion, developments are only at introductory stage.

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Sustaining the development of the country will require current levels of growth to trickle down to the poorest and more excluded of society. A critical way to extend these benefits will be to bring people into the formal sector of finance, whereby they may have more reliable and cheaper access to their financial needs of remittances, savings, borrowings etc. Many models have been suggested as alternatives to traditional branch banking, the current penetration of which is abysmally low. Options include mobile banking, enlisting business correspondents, encouraging MFIs, etc., and each option has its strengths and weaknesses. The models with the greatest potential for the future should be able to leverage on existing retail networks and the rapidly expanding ICT (information and communication technology) platform. As such, the BC model, clubbed with m-banking technology, holds the greatest promise to achieving universal inclusion and steps must be taken to encourage its sustained proliferation

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Under the Indicus Urban Consumer Expenditure Spectrum, the bottom of the pyramid in urban India is comprised of households that earn less than Rs. 1.5 lakh per annum. This class forms the bulk of the population in cities, but contributes less than 15% of total urban income and less than 10% of total urban savings. Household sizes are typically smaller than in the more affluent classes. One reason is that there are many migrants in this segment; with little skills and low education, their earning opportunities are low, albeit they supplement family incomes in the villages. Northern states, however, have larger household sizes within the segment.

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The organized sector in India created 704,800 jobs between January 2011 and June 2011 and 369,200 more jobs are expected to be created by September 2011, according to the latest findings of Ma Foi Randstad Employment Trends Survey – Wave2. The survey was conducted among 690 companies across 13 industry segments panning 8 Indian cities. The respondents included members of senior management and HR professionals who were questioned on specific areas relating to hiring plans across various timelines, manpower requirements for the current quarter vis-à-vis the last two quarters, and their views on how they see the job market to be in the year 2011. While the Indian economy is passing through a delicate phase with certain sectors looking at a bleak market in the near future, there are others who have performed well and continue to perform as per predictions made in the beginning of the year, thus reflecting buoyancy among employers. According to the survey, the Healthcare sector has remained the largest employment generator with 1, 15,000 jobs created in H1, followed by the Hospitality sector with 94,000 jobs created during the same period. The IT/ITeS sector, which witnessed a turnaround in 2010-11 by posting a double digit growth, continues to grow at the same pace and has added 91,000 jobs in H1. In the cities, New Delhi, Mumbai and Chennai continue to lead the job market job generating 1,39,700 jobs between January and June 2011, as predicted earlier this year

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Demand Curve - Finance institutions need to focus on expanding market

1. Finance institutions need to focus on expanding market On average, only 16% of Indian households have taken loans from institutional agencies--commercial banks and cooperative societies. Financial inclusion is a stated policy of the government and the central bank, but it will take some concerted effort to bring more of the population into the network of formal financial services. The current spread of formal finance network is quite inadequate. At least 60% of Indians do not have access to the banking system. Even though the average number of people that a bank branch serves is around 15,000, there are six states where each branch serves around 20,000. These states are mostly in the east. The inadequate spread of banking is reflected in the data on credit as well. On average, only 16% of Indian households have taken loans from institutional agencies—commercial banks and cooperative societies. Non-institutional agencies, including moneylenders, friends and relatives, have a higher reach at 22%. Again, sharp regional differences show up, with Kerala coming up high on indicators of banking and finance. As many as 14 of the top 20 districts that have access to institutional credit are from Kerala. The districts of Kottayam, Kannur and Idukki top the list, with at least 65% of households taking loans from institutional agencies. Kerala, however, has some peculiar characteristics that help explain this widespread integration with the formal financial system—high literacy and educational levels, well-connected rural areas as density of population is high, and remittances from overseas migrant workforce. All these make for an environment more conducive towards higher access to formal finance. Source: Indian Financial Scape Demand Curve

2. At the other end of the spectrum are districts where less than 1% of households have taken credit from institutional agencies. These are mostly in Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir and Mizoram, where the banking system is extremely underdeveloped given constraints of a low density of population, poor connectivity and law and order concerns. In regard to the penetration of non-institutional loans, the focus shifts from Kerala at the top end. Here, the top 24 districts have penetration ranging from 50-53% and are mostly located in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. These are the states where microfinance and self-help groups have spread into the hinterland. The districts languishing at the bottom remain the ones from the hill states. In fact, 64 districts have less than 7% penetration of non-institutional loans. Of these, two are from Andaman and Nicobar, 13 from Arunachal Pradesh, 14 from Jammu and Kashmir, seven from Meghalaya, eight from Mizoram, four from Sikkim, 13 from Uttarakhand and three from West Bengal. At a broader level, there is a clear need for better services in the hill states. The question remains whether the government measures of banking correspondents, using post offices, etc., will reap dividends in expanding the financial network in areas where topography and socio-economic characteristics remain tough barriers to overcome. Essentially, there are two clear characteristics of household access to finance. One, the bulk of the population is financially underserved and rely on informal lending. Two, non-institutional agencies have together achieved a much higher penetration than institutional agencies. The need of the hour is for financial institutions to focus more on expanding the market rather than flog the existing ones. And for this, innovative use of technology just might be the way to go. Demand Curve is a weekly column by research firm Indicus Analytics Pvt . Ltd on consumer trends and markets.

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