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Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012

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THE BIG DIGITAL CHANGE ISSUES IN US PUBLISHING FOR 2012 Mike Shatzkin IfBookThen, Milan February 2012 The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING • Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99 • Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 – Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points – Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books • Reduction in pricing influence of print The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING • Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99 • Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 – Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points – Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books • Reduction in pricing influence of print The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING • Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99 • Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 – Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points – Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books • Reduction in pricing influence of print The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
CONTACT Mike Shatzkin The Idea Logical Company info@idealog.com @MikeShatzkin The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.

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Mike Shatzkin at IfBookThen 2012

  • 1. THE BIG DIGITAL CHANGE ISSUES IN US PUBLISHING FOR 2012 Mike Shatzkin IfBookThen, Milan February 2012 The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 2. AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 3. AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 4. AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 5. AMAZON'S SHARE OF PUBLISHERS' REVENUES (PRINT AND DIGITAL) • Over 30% of large pub volume and growing (67% of e, 20-25% of p) • Threats of shelf space reductions (bookstores and mass merchants) • Proven impact of Amazon's onsite promotions (i.e. Sunshine Deals, Kindle Daily Deal) • Publishers' challenge: Grow non-Amazon revenues wherever they can The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 6. AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 7. AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 8. AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 9. AMAZON'S POTENTIAL TO CORNER KEY BOOKS OR AUTHORS • They know reading patterns • Ability to offer authors higher royalties, onsite promotion • Can build some reach to other channels (i.e. libraries, other retailers) • Can offer advances; take authors or push up what publishers pay The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 10. SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 11. SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 12. SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 13. SPEED OF EBOOK ADOPTION (DOES IT SLOW DOWN? SOME SIGNS IT MIGHT...) • Doubled or more for four straight years (2007-2010 inclusive) • New research suggests slowdown of growth (BISG/Bowker consumer study, 2nd half of 2011) • Verso research shows increase of ebook resistance • New devices that enable other activities could mean less reading The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 14. VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING • Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99 • Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 – Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points – Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books • Reduction in pricing influence of print The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 15. VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING • Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99 • Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 – Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points – Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books • Reduction in pricing influence of print The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 16. VOLATILITY AND EXPERIMENTATION IN PRICING • Agency model has enabled big publishers to maintain frontlist US prices at $9.99-$14.99 • Impact of self-pubs and indies on pricing (could they make it harder for pubs to get higher prices?) – Big action at bargain tiers $0.99-$4.99 – Increase of selection and awareness at lower price points – Increase in bestseller representation of lower-priced books • Reduction in pricing influence of print The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 17. WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 18. WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 19. WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 20. WILL ANYTHING BUT IMMERSIVE READING SELL RELIABLY AS EBOOKS? (SO FAR, NOTHING HAS...) • All consistent success is immersive reading • Different investment-return scenarios (additional costs for less-likely-to-sell ebooks) • App market pricing discouraging • Potential to change with HTML5 apps and new ePub 3 specifications The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 21. WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 22. WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 23. WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 24. WILL US PUBLISHERS MOVE ON OPPORTUNITIES TO OWN NON- ENGLISH TRANSLATIONS? • Self-publishing authors doing it on their own! • Translators everywhere can sell their services to publishers anywhere • US publishers looking for ways to expand • Promising translations at time of initial deal could be appealing to authors The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 25. WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 26. WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 27. WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 28. WILL BARNES & NOBLE UNVEIL A WORKABLE GLOBAL STRATEGY? • Scale would seem to require it • The challenge: economics of reading devices require also selling the content • B&N already has extensive relationships with non-US sources of content • B&N Nook at 1/2-Amazon in US has been most successful competitor to Kindle The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.
  • 29. CONTACT Mike Shatzkin The Idea Logical Company info@idealog.com @MikeShatzkin The Idea Logical Company © 2012 The Idea Logical Company, Inc.