The energy war between U.S.A. and Russia and the threat for Israel's Survival

1. The Energy War Between U.S.A.
and Russia and the Threat for Israel’s
Survival
Iakovos Alhadeff

2. Published by Iakovos Alhadeff at Smashwords
Copyright 2014 Iakovos Alhadeff

3. TABLE OF CONTENTS
The Conflict in Ukraine
The Nord Stream and South Stream Pipelines
U.S.A. & Europe
Turkey & Iran
Israel

4. The Conflict in Ukraine
The conflict in Ukraine is only a part of the energy war between Russia and United States.
Europe is very poor in terms of energy resources, but very rich in all other aspects. Both U.S.A.
and Russia want to dominate the European energy market, since this does not only involve
economic gains, but aslo increased diplomatic power. Energy is very important for all developed
economies, and energy providers normally have political power over energy recipients.
Russia is the richest country in natural gas reserves and the number one oil producer. It is not
however the richest country in oil reserves. Please note that the richest countries in energy
reserves are not necessarily the largest energy producers too. At the following Wikipedia link you
can see Gazprom’s European market shares. Gazprom is the Russian state owned natural gas
giant, and on average it holds 30% of the European natural gas market.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia_in_the_European_energy_sector
Moreover Russia supplies a large part of the oil consumed by European countries. This energy
dominance is a big pain for United States, since it gives Russia political power over NATO
members. Therefore the Americans wish to provide Europe with alternative sources of energy,
and more specifically with alternative sources of natural gas, since natural gas is most of the time
delivered through pipelines, and it creates a greater dependency on the part of the energy
recipient than oil, which is normally transferred with ships.

5. The Nord Stream and
the South Stream Pipelines
Most of Gazprom’s natural gas, approximately 80% of it, is distributed to Europe through
Ukraine. At the following link you can read about the disputes between Russia and Ukraine over
natural gas distribution.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes
That’s the reason the Americans are so keen to help anti-Russian and NATO friendly Ukrainians.
The Russians on the other hand do not like this dependency on Ukraine, and have developed the
Nord Stream pipeline which delivers Gazprom’s natural gas directly to Germany, through the
Baltic Sea, thus bypassing Ukraine. You can see at the following BBC map the Nord Stream
pipeline with Green color.
Map 1
Source BBC (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-14803065)
Russia wants to also develop another pipeline, the South Stream, which you can see with the blue
color on the map, which will again bypass Ukraine and will deliver Gazprom’s natural gas to
Southern Europe. When both these pipelines will be ready, the Russians will not depend anymore
on Ukraine to supply the whole Europe with Russian natural gas. As you can see the South

6. Stream will cross the Black Sea, and from Bulgaria will distribute natural gas to Southern
Europe.
To develop the South Stream pipeline, Russia needs the help of Bulgaria, and also the help of
Turkey, since the Exclusive Economic Zones of both Bulgaria and Turkey are involved. One but
not the only reason there was so much noise about Crimea was because of Crimea’s effect on the
Ukraine and Russian Exclusive Economic Zones. Crimea is the piece of land under Ukraine on
map 2
Map 2
As you can see, if Ukraine controls Crimea, Ukraine would have a saying on the South Stream
crossing the Black Sea, since it would fall inside Ukraine’s exclusive economic zone. But if
Crimea belongs to Russia, Ukraine does not have a saying on the construction of the pipeline.
And Russia annexed Crimea as we all know. And as you can see on map 3, from
whowhatwhy.com, which is accurate, the Russians designed the pipeline nearer Turkey to totally
avoid Ukraine.

7. Map 3
The Europeans are divided on the issue of the South Stream. As you can see at the following
Reuters’ link,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-southstream-analys-
idUSBREA3G1KP20140417
some countries perceive it as a positive development i.e. Germany, Italy, Bulgaria. The important
point to note is that once the South Stream is ready, together with the Nord Stream, will allow
Gazprom to supply with natural gas the whole European Continent without relying on the
Ukrainian pipeline network. Moreover, as you can see on the following Wikipedia link, Ukraine
is the 26th richest country in the world in terms of natural gas reserves, which further enhances
its geostrategic importance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_gas_in_Ukraine

8. U.S.A. and Europe
As I already said, the Americans and the Europeans want to have many sources of natural gas, in
order to limit the economic but mainly the diplomatic influence that Russia enjoys over NATO
members, and which arises by the 30% of Gazprom’s share in the European market. It also has to
do with competition issues. The more energy options a country has the cheaper it buys its energy.
The Americans and the Europeans want to bring natural gas from the energy rich Caspian Sea to
Europe. The Nabucco Pipeline and the Pans Adriatic Pipeline are two of the possible routes. The
Nabucco pipeline which you can see with red color on map 1 will bring Caspian natural gas to
Europe through Turkey. The other possible pipeline, the Trans Adriatic Pipeline TAP, which you
can see on map 4 below, will again bring natural gas from Caspian Sea to Europe through
Turkey.
Map 4

9. Turkey and Iran
It is clear how important Turkey is for the Americans and Europeans, since both the Nabucco and
the TAP pipelines will have to pass through its territories to deliver Caspian natural gas to
European markets. And I am not talking for the obvious economic benefits. I am talking about
Turkey’s increased geopolitical power. It is very important for the Americans and Europeans to
have Turkey on their side, so if they decide to take sanctions against Russia and there is a
disturbance in natural gas supply, Turkey will not cut off supplies from the Caspian Sea too to
support Russia. Currently it is very painful for the Americans and the Europeans to take
sanctions against Russia, since Gazprom provides a large share of the natural gas consumed in
the European markets. As you can see on map 5 below
Map 5
Iran’s is also very important for the Americans and the Europeans. Iran is situated on the Caspian
Sea and it will be very difficult for the Americans to ensure stable natural gas supply to Europe if
they face a hostile Iran. Moreover Iran is a very energy rich country, one of the richest ones in
fact, and its natural gas could be transferred to Europe too. The Nabucco and TAP pipelines are
supposed to transfer natural gas from NATO friendly Azerbaijan, but other countries can be
connected on the pipeline network too. Therefore both Iran and Turkey are extremely important
for the American and European efforts to provide Europe with abundant non Russian natural gas.

10. Israel
The increase in Turkey’s and Iran’s geopolitical power poses a lethal threat to Israel. You have to
keep in mind that Turkey and Iran are two of Israel’s lethal enemies. Iran’s goal is to eliminate
Israel, and Turkey, an ex Israel ally, does not seem to be further away from this view, under the
leadership of Recep Erdogan. Actually everybody knows that it is mainly Iran, Turkey and Qatar
that support and provide funding to Hamas, which is recognized by U.S.A., the E.E., Japan and
other countries as a terrorist organization. Hamas runs the Gaza Strip, and came to power with
elections in Gaza. It is Hamas that fires all these rockets that you hear about from Gaza to Israel.
At the following article you can read about the funding of Hamas.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/para/hamas-funds.htm
In this changing geopolitical map, Israel does not seem to be able to count on United States for
its survival, as it has for so many years done. This has already caused a deterioration in the
American-Israeli relations, and an improvement in the Russian-Israeli relations. You have to
keep in mind that rich natural gas fields were also found in the Mediterranean See, in the region
between Greece, Cyprus,Turkey and Israel. This could be also an energy alternative for Europe
as you can see on map 6
Map 6

11. The problem is that it is very difficult and very costly to build a pipeline network through the
Mediterranean See if Turkey is involved in the project. But with the current political situation
between Turkey and Israel this does not seem to be feasible, at least not for Israel’s part of
energy.
The natural gas found in the Israeli sea, might be the only chip for survival that Israel has in this
energy hungry world. It seems that Israel is giving Russia a role in its energy wealth. At the
following Bloomberg link you can see the cooperation between Gazprom and the Israelis.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-02-26/gazprom-holds-talks-to-export-all-lng-from-
israeli-tamar-project.html
It seems that in a world where Israelis cannot count on the protection of the Americans, they are
moving towards Russia. They are not connected to Russia in the same way they were connected
to the U.S.A., but it seems they are somewhere between these two countries. At the following
Financial Times link, you can see that Israel did not vote against Russia in the U.N. resolution
about Ukraine. It rather preferred to abstain.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a51509b2-c665-11e3-ba0e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz39QhkKtrJ
The FT examines the causes for this behavior and at the end of the article say:
“But the strongest motivation for Israel to stay out of the Ukraine fracas lies in the present day
and closer to home: Russia is a strong and growing power in the Middle East.
Israel needs to engage Moscow on several vital issues: Iran’s nuclear programme and the
dismantlement of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpile. Moscow is the biggest foreign patron of
Bashar al-Assad’s Syria and a major supplier of arms to the Middle East in general.
Behind closed doors, Israel has prevailed on Russia to refrain from supplying game-changing
weapons to Syria that could land in the hands of Hizbollah, its best-armed regional enemy.”
Moreover as you can see at the following Wikipedia link, Avigdor Lieberman, the Israeli Foreign
Affairs Minister, is a Russian Jew. He was born in Russia, served in the Russian Army, and later
immigrated to Israel with his family. It is “strange” that the Israelis chose a Russian soldier as
their Minister of Foreign Affairs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avigdor_Lieberman
Some people are confused because the U.S. is still giving Israel some financial aid. For example
they recently offered Israel 200 million dollars in terms of financial aid. But Israel was receiving
approximately 3 billion dollars a year in American aid some years ago. This 200 million dollars,

12. is some of the last money Israel is receiving from United States as you can read at the following
article
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-strauss/us-aid-israel_b_4251742.html
For Israel there is another big problem, namely the pipelines that will transfer natural gas from
the Persian Gulf to European markets, and more specifically the pipelines that will transfer
natural gas from the Persian Gulf’s South Pars/North Dome field. South Pars/North Dome is the
richest natural gas filed in the world and it lies between Qatar and Iran. It is jointly owned by
Qatar and Iran. You can see it on map 7.
Map 7
These pipelines are the real cause of the current war in Iraq and Syria. Muslims are divided in
Sunis and Shias. And the Shias want to transfer the natural gas through the route Iran-Iraq-Syria-
Lebanon-Mediterranean Sea- Europe and the Sunis through the route Qatar-Saudi Arabia-Jordan-
Syria-Turkey-Europe. You can see both the Suni (purple color) and Shia (red color) pipelines at
the following map

13. Map 8
Sunis and Shias are currently fighting in Syria and Iraq. As you can see on map 9, if Sunis win
Syria and Iraq, Shias cannot go ahead with their pipeline. The only other route to reach Europe
would be through Turkey. But Turkey is on the Suni side. The problem for Israel is that
Americans are supporting the Sunis in this conflict. Americans are very good friends with Qatar,
one of the owners of South Pars/ North Dome. The Russians support the Shia pipeline i.e. Iran.
It is known that Qatar is one of the countries that heavily fund Hamas, which is the terrorist
organization that throws rockets from Gaza to Israel, and it is officially recognized by U.S.A. and
Europe as a terrorist organization. Therefore Israel cannot count on the Americans at least for as
long as they back their lethal enemies. On the other hand, Iran is with Russia on this fight, and
together they support Assad in Syria. But Iran is also funding Hamas. But it is in direct
competition with Qatar on this pipeline fight.
But it is Iran’s nuclear program that is the lethal threat to Israelis. And it is the Russians that
control the nuclear program of the Iranians. And the Americans do not seem very interested in
preventing Iran from developing its nuclear arsenal. As you can see on the fourth paragraph of
the following Wikipedia link, it is the Russians that developed the first nuclear factory in Iran.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran
And as you can see on the following Reuters link, the Russians will develop another 8 nuclear
reactors in Iran.

14. http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/22/iran-nuclear-russia-idUKL6N0O83KX20140522
And it is the Russians that provide weapons to Syrians one of Israel’s oldest foe. If you also take
into account that Obama is a president who seems to have strong ties with the Muslim world but
also with the Muslim Brotherhood, it should not be a big surprise that the Israelis have a Russian
soldier as their Minister of Foreign Affairs. You should also have a look at this video about how
U.S.A. indirectly helps Hamas.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WN_i0UKB3ZU&index=4&list=PL2bOp7h44zv65ap-
PbglPHKSLSdHAAjQM
You should also do some research on the relations of the U.S.A. and Qatar, and on the relation of
Qatar, Iran and Turkey with Hamas. It will help you understand the current geopolitical situation.
Map 9
It seems that the 21st century will be a very difficult one for Israel.