Sander van noort: Influenzanet: self-reporting of influenza-like illness in cohorts of internet volunteers, 2003-2013

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Talk by Sander van Noort on the 1st Symposium of Big Data and Public Health, 2013

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Sander van noort: Influenzanet: self-reporting of influenza-like illness in cohorts of internet volunteers, 2003-2013

  1. 1. Influenzanet: ILI monitoring by self-reporting volunteers Sander van Noort Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciˆncia, Portugal e 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 1/ 29
  2. 2. Overview 1 System 2 Comparing ILI surveillance systems 3 Epidemic detection 4 Vaccine efficacy 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 2/ 29
  3. 3. Layout 1 System 2 Comparing ILI surveillance systems 3 Epidemic detection 4 Vaccine efficacy 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 3/ 29
  4. 4. System of Influenzanet Intake questionnaire Age Postal code Smoking Vaccination status Transportation ... 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 4/ 29
  5. 5. System of Influenzanet Intake questionnaire Weekly questionnaire Age No symptoms Postal code Fever, cough, muscle pain, . . . Smoking Vaccination status Transportation ... 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 4/ 29
  6. 6. System of Influenzanet Intake questionnaire Weekly questionnaire Age No symptoms Postal code Fever, cough, muscle pain, . . . Smoking GP visit Vaccination status Stayed home Transportation Medicine use ... ... 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 4/ 29
  7. 7. Europe and other similar systems 2003 (nl, be) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  8. 8. Europe and other similar systems 2003 (nl, be) 2005 (pt) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  9. 9. Europe and other similar systems 2003 (nl, be) 2005 (pt) 2007 (it) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  10. 10. Europe and other similar systems 2003 2005 2007 2009 (nl, be) (pt) (it) (uk) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  11. 11. Europe and other similar systems 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 (nl, be) (pt) (it) (uk) (se) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  12. 12. Europe and other similar systems 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 (nl, be) (pt) (it) (uk) (se) (fr) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  13. 13. Europe and other similar systems 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2012 (nl, be) (pt) (it) (uk) (se) (fr) (es) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  14. 14. Europe and other similar systems 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2012 2013 (nl, be) (pt) (it) (uk) (se) (fr) (es) (ie) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  15. 15. Europe and other similar systems 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2012 2012 2013 (nl, be) (pt) (it) (uk) (se) (fr) (es) (ie) 2008 2007 2009 2010 2011 (eu) (au) (mx) (br) (us) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 5/ 29
  16. 16. Case definitions Influenza-like Illness Fever (at least 38◦ Celsius) Acute onset Cough or sore throat Muscle pain or headache 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 6/ 29
  17. 17. Case definitions Influenza-like Illness Fever (at least 38◦ Celsius) Acute onset Cough or sore throat Muscle pain or headache Common cold Not ILI, Allergy Runny or blocked nose; Sneezing; Cough; Sore throat (at least 2) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 6/ 29
  18. 18. Case definitions Influenza-like Illness Fever (at least 38◦ Celsius) Acute onset Cough or sore throat Muscle pain or headache Common cold Not ILI, Allergy Runny or blocked nose; Sneezing; Cough; Sore throat (at least 2) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 6/ 29
  19. 19. Geographical spread ILI in the Netherlands/Belgium in 2012/13 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 7/ 29
  20. 20. Participation - Loyalty Joined in 2003/04 Joined in 2004/05 Joined in 2005/06 Participants A Netherlands B 10000 Joined in 2006/07 Joined in 2007/08 Joined in 2008/09 Belgium Joined in 2009/10 Joined in 2010/11 C Portugal 3000 20000 8000 15000 2500 2000 6000 10000 1500 4000 1000 5000 2000 0 0 03/04/05/06/07/08/09/10/ 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Season 500 03/04/05/06/07/08/09/10/ 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 0 06/ 07/ 08/ 09/ 10/ 07 08 09 10 11 Season Season On average 75% participates again the following season 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 8/ 29
  21. 21. Layout 1 System 2 Comparing ILI surveillance systems 3 Epidemic detection 4 Vaccine efficacy 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 9/ 29
  22. 22. ILI surveillance systems Influenzanet 2000 The Netherlands Influenzanet ILI / 100,000 1500 1000 500 0 2004 2005 Influenzanet: 2006 2007 2008 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Self-reporting volunteers 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 10 / 29
  23. 23. ILI surveillance systems Influenzanet 2000 1500 250 200 150 1000 100 Sentinel GPs ILI / 100,000 Influenzanet ILI / 100,000 EISN R2 =0.68 The Netherlands 500 50 0 2004 2005 Influenzanet: EISN: 2006 2007 2008 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 0 Self-reporting volunteers Care-seeking patients 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 10 / 29
  24. 24. ILI surveillance systems Influenzanet 2000 EISN Google Flu The Netherlands 250 Influenzanet ILI / 100,000 200 150 1000 100 500 50 0 2004 2005 Influenzanet: EISN: Google: 2006 2007 2008 Year 2009 2010 2011 2012 Google / Sentinel GPs ILI / 100,000 1500 2013 0 Self-reporting volunteers Care-seeking patients (Online) data mining 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 10 / 29
  25. 25. ILI surveillance systems Influenzanet 2000 EISN Google Flu The Netherlands 250 Influenzanet ILI / 100,000 200 150 1000 100 500 50 0 2004 2005 Influenzanet: EISN: Google: 2006 2007 2008 Year 2009 Self-reporting volunteers Care-seeking patients (Online) data mining 2010 2011 2012 Google / Sentinel GPs ILI / 100,000 1500 2013 0 (FluNearYou, Reporta) (CDC) (Twitter, Online news) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 10 / 29
  26. 26. Reporting bias in Influenzanet Population / Influenzanet / ILI / Report 9 ' not ILI ILI Incidence = ILI ILI + not ILI 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 11 / 29
  27. 27. Reporting bias in Influenzanet Population / Influenzanet / ILI / Report 9 ' not ILI ILI Incidence = ILI ILI + not ILI Bias: who participates in Influenzanet 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 11 / 29
  28. 28. Age bias in Influenzanet Influenzanet Population Percentage (%) 120 100 80 60 40 B 20 0 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0-4 5-14 15-64 0 65+ Nov Age group D C 25 ILI / 100,000 Attack rate (%) 0-4 5-14 15-64 65+ 3500 ILI / 100,000 A 20 15 10 Jan Mar May 2008 - 2009 Raw Age corrected 1500 1000 500 5 0 0-4 5-14 15-64 65+ 0 Nov Age group Jan Mar May 2008 - 2009 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 12 / 29
  29. 29. Reporting bias in EISN Population / Sentinel doctor / ILI ILI Incidence = / GP visit / Report GP visits with ILI Registered patients 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 13 / 29
  30. 30. Reporting bias in EISN Population / Sentinel doctor / ILI ILI Incidence = / GP visit / Report GP visits with ILI Registered patients Bias: who visits their GP 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 13 / 29
  31. 31. GP visits Sweden Netherlands United Kingdom Portugal Spain Italy France Belgium 0 20 40 60 80 100 GP visit in 2012/13 with ILI-hist (%) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 14 / 29
  32. 32. Age bias in EISN 250 200 150 100 B C 40 Attack rate (%) 300 0-4 5-14 15-64 65+ GP visit (%) EISN: ILI / 100,000 A 350 30 20 10 50 0 Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug 2008 - 2009 0 0-4 5-14 15-64 65+ Age group Raw Corrected 8 6 4 2 0 0-4 5-14 15-64 65+ Age group 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 15 / 29
  33. 33. Reporting bias in Google Population / Google / ILI / Search 9 % not ILI ILI Incidence = Function(ILI searches) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 16 / 29
  34. 34. Reporting bias in Google Population / Google / ILI / Search 9 % not ILI ILI Incidence = Function(ILI searches) Bias: Does an ILI searcher have ILI 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 16 / 29
  35. 35. Layout 1 System 2 Comparing ILI surveillance systems 3 Epidemic detection 4 Vaccine efficacy 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 17 / 29
  36. 36. ILI baseline 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 A ILI / 100,000 1400 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009 2009 - 2010 2010 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2013 Baseline Netherlands 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 B ILI / 100,000 1400 Belgium 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 C ILI / 100,000 1400 Italy 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Month 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 18 / 29
  37. 37. Real time monitoring Influenzanet 95% CI Baseline 2500 16337 participants (26 Dec) 12409 participants (27 Oct) ILI / 100,000 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2009 2010 Year 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 19 / 29
  38. 38. Real time monitoring Influenzanet 95% CI Baseline Model 2500 ILI / 100,000 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2009 2010 Year 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 19 / 29
  39. 39. Real time monitoring Influenzanet 95% CI Baseline 15,000 participants 2500 ILI / 100,000 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2009 2010 Year 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 19 / 29
  40. 40. Real time monitoring Influenzanet 95% CI Baseline 1,000 participants 2500 ILI / 100,000 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2009 2010 Year 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 19 / 29
  41. 41. Real time monitoring Influenzanet 2500 95% CI 50000 participants (17 Dec) 10000 participants (8 Nov) 3000 participants (2 Jan) 3000 participants (12 Nov) 1000 participants (11 Jan) ILI / 100,000 Model 50000 participants (3 Nov) 10000 participants (26 Dec) 2000 Baseline 1000 participants (18 Nov) 1500 1000 500 0 2009 2010 Year 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 19 / 29
  42. 42. Participation - Totals Country Netherlands Belgium (Flanders) Portugal Italy United Kingdom Sweden France Spain Pop. 16.8M 6.3M 10.5M 59.4M 63.7M 9.6M 65.6M 46.0M Participants 13366 3948 1428 1886 5614 2853 5805 592 Active 11642 3609 1147 1164 3616 2310 4559 436 Percentage 0.07% 0.06% 0.01% 0.002% 0.006% 0.02% 0.007% 0.0009% 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 20 / 29
  43. 43. ILI detection Influenzanet vs. EISN Influenzanet: ILI / 100,000 Influenzanet A Baseline 14 Jan 2009 EISN ILI 2008 - 2009 C 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr D EISN: ILI / 100,000 27 Dec 2008 95% CI B 27 Dec 2008 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr E 14 Jan 2009 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr F 250 200 150 100 50 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr 2008 - 2009 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 21 / 29
  44. 44. ILI detection Influenzanet vs EISN - Table Season 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 Average Influenzanet Wed 10 Dec Fri 4 Feb Sat 11 Feb Sat 17 Feb Tue 8 Jan Sat 27 Dec Thu 29 Oct Wed 29 Dec Sun 19 Feb Fri 28 Dec EISN Wed 24 Wed 16 Wed 15 Wed 14 Wed 20 Wed 14 Wed 21 Wed 19 – Wed 16 Dec Feb Feb Mar Feb Jan Oct Jan Jan Difference 14 12 4 25 43 18 –8 21 – 19 16 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 22 / 29
  45. 45. Days until GP visit A 40 B Sweden C UK D Netherlands Belgium 30 Percentage (%) 20 10 0 E 40 <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 Spain F <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 France G <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 Italy H <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 Portugal 30 20 10 0 <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 <1 1 2 3 4 5-7 >7 Days until GP visit 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 23 / 29
  46. 46. Layout 1 System 2 Comparing ILI surveillance systems 3 Epidemic detection 4 Vaccine efficacy 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 24 / 29
  47. 47. Vaccine efficacy Is Influenzanet an ideal system to monitor vaccine efficacy in real time? 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 25 / 29
  48. 48. Vaccine efficacy Is Influenzanet an ideal system to monitor vaccine efficacy in real time? Influenzanet measures Influenza-like illness (ILI), the vaccine protects against the influenza virus. Vaccinated and unvaccinated participants can not be directly compared (“non-randomized trial”) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 25 / 29
  49. 49. Vaccine efficacy: ILI vs Influenza A Not vaccinated Vaccinated Baseline 1200 ILI / 100,000 1000 800 600 400 200 Viral confirmation 0 B Influenza A Influenza B 20 15 10 5 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2008 - 2009 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 26 / 29
  50. 50. Vaccine efficacy: ILI vs Influenza Season A All ILI onsets B Influenza period C Inf. period - Baseline 2003 - 2004 2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006 2006 - 2007 2007 - 2008 2008 - 2009 2009 - 2010 2010 - 2011 2011 - 2012 2012 - 2013 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 Risk ratio (vaccine) 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.0 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 26 / 29
  51. 51. Vaccine efficacy: Risk factors Most people are vaccinated because they belong to a risk group: Percentage (%) Chronic disease Age over 60 100 80 60 40 20 0 100 Vaccinated beginning season Not vaccinated Vaccinated during season 1-17 18-39 40-59 60-99 Reasons for vaccination GP recommendation To protect me To protect others Part of risk group Company vaccination Easily available Free Not missing school/work Always get a vaccine Other Percentage (%) 80 60 40 20 0 1-17 Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) 18-39 40-59 Influenzanet 60-99 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro 27 / 29
  52. 52. Vaccine efficacy: Risk factors A No extra risk factors VE 2003 - 2004 VE 2004 - 2005 VE 2005 - 2006 VE 2006 - 2007 VE 2007 - 2008 VE 2008 - 2009 VE 2009 - 2010 VE 2010 - 2011 VE 2011 - 2012 VE 2012 - 2013 B + Age + Chronic >= 60 Chronic disease VE 2003 - 2004 VE 2004 - 2005 VE 2005 - 2006 VE 2006 - 2007 VE 2007 - 2008 VE 2008 - 2009 VE 2009 - 2010 VE 2010 - 2011 VE 2011 - 2012 VE 2012 - 2013 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 Risk ratio (vaccine) 1.3 1.6 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 27 / 29
  53. 53. Other risk factors Risk factors: Chronic disease Children Parents Women Pets Smoking No risk: Using public transport Living alone (vs with only adults) 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 28 / 29
  54. 54. Acknowledgments Netherlands (Carl Koppeschaar, Ronald Smallenburg) Belgium (Marc van Ranst) Portugal (Gabriela Gomes, Vitor Faustino) Italy (Daniela Paolotti) United Kingdom (John Edmunds) Sweden (Annasara Carnahan) France (Vittoria Colizza) Spain (Yamir Moreno) Ireland (Jim Duggan) http://www.influenzanet.eu/results vanNoort@gmail.com 25 October 2013, Rio de Janeiro Sander van Noort (IGC, Portugal) Influenzanet 29 / 29

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