Panel II: Post 2000 Emigration from Poland and the Baltics Prof. Mihails Hazans, University of Latvia, Research Fellow at the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA, Bonn) http://euromonde.eu

1. Post-2000 emigration from
Poland and the Baltics
Mihails Hazans
University of Latvia and IZA (Bonn)
"How to Improve Intra-European Mobility and Circular Migration?
Fostering Diaspora Engagement"
Riga, Latvia, 11-12 May 2015
“The emigrant communities of Latvia: National identity,
transnational relations, and diaspora politics” - research
project financed by European Social Fund. Project No.
2013/0055/1DP/1.1.1.2.0/13/APIA/VIAA/040

2. Consumer confidence indicator in Poland and the Baltics,
2007-2013

3. Figure 4. Natural decrease of population and net emigration.
The Baltic countries and Poland, 2000-2012

4. Change in the size of selected cohorts. Latvia, Lithuania and Poland, 2003-
2012 (in % of population on January 1, 2003)

5. Gross emigration of nationals from Poland and the Baltic countries
to main EU and OECD destinations, 2008-2013

6. Stock of emigrants (expatriates) from Poland and the Baltic countries
in EU-28 and EFTA countries, 01.01.2004-01.01.2013

7. Skill composition and selectivity of Baltic and Polish emigrants

8. Skill composition and selectivity of Baltic migrant workers
reported as household members in the home country, 2000-2013

9. Emigration intentions in the Baltic countries, 2009-2013
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2010 2010 2013 2013 2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2012 2011
(a) (b) (a) (c) (a) (d) (e) (f)
Estonia Lithuania Latvia
Permanently Temporarily Duration unknown
with concrete plans/steps without concrete plans without preconditions
with some preconditions

10. The demographic prospects
• Emigration from the Baltic countries reached levels
that threaten reproduction of their populations,
sustainability of social security systems and economic
development. The demographic risk is most
pronounced in Latvia
• In Poland, net emigration was smaller (especially
during the crisis and post-crisis years) and (due to
lower mortality) was not substantially reinforced by
natural decrease.
• However, sizable negative net migration combined with
shrinking youth and middle-age cohorts and almost
negligible natural increase of population suggests that
also in Poland demographic perspectives are far from
bright.

11. The demographic prospects
• Both Baltic and Polish females abroad
demonstrate higher fertility than their peers back
home.
• in England and Wales alone, the number of births
delivered in 2011 by females born in Latvia and
Lithuania accounted for about 12% of the
number of live births in the sending countries in
that year;
• corresponding indicator for Poland is smaller
(5.3%) yet disturbing enough

12. Thank you for attention!