RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
Cereal Consumption Patterns in Ethiopia: An Analysis of the 2004-05 Household Income Consumption and Expenditure (HICE) Data
1. ETHIOPIAN DEVELOPMENT
RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Cereal Consumption Patterns in Ethiopia:
An Analysis of the 2004-05 Household Income Consumption
and Expenditure (HICE) Data
Kibrom Tafere
Zelekawork Paulos
Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
Nigussie Tefera
Seneshaw Tamiru
ESSP – II Conference
October 22-24
We gratefully acknowledge CSA for providing the 2004/05 HICES data for this analysis
2. Introduction
• Ethiopia’s agriculture and household food consumption patterns are complex
• No single staple dominates food consumption such as:
– Rice in East Asia
– Maize in Latin America and Eastern /Southern Africa
– Wheat in central Asia
– Cassava in central Africa
• In Ethiopia, four cereals (teff, wheat, maize and sorghum) and enset (in
SNNPR) are major staples in various parts of the country
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3. Introduction
• Some of the variation derives from:
•Topography in Ethiopia varies
widely, even across small areas
•Annual rainfall varies across
space: Rainfall is highest and least
variable in the western part of the
country and the western slopes of
mountains
• The majority of Ethiopia’s
population lives in rural areas; 16%
of the population is defined as
urban, or lives in a town of at least
2,000 people
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4. Data: HICES 2004/05
• This analysis is based on the Central Statistical Agency’s (CSA) Household
Income Consumption Expenditure (HICE) survey (2004/05) data.
• For this analysis, the country is divided into 3 major categories and 5 agro-
ecological zones
• Rural
• Major Urban Centers: Regional capitals and other 4 major centers
• Other Urban Centers: All urban centers that are not classified as major
urban centers
Definition of Urban Areas
• All administrative capitals
• Localities with Urban Dwellers’ Associations
• All localities with a population of 1000 or more persons, and whose
inhabitants are primarily engaged in non- agricultural activities.
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5. Data: HICES 2004/05 (cont.)
Sampling procedures:
• Rural and Major Urban Centers: 2 stage cluster sampling design
• Other Urban Centers: 3 stage cluster sampling
• A total of 21,595 households were surveyed
• 12,101 of households are in urban areas
• 9,494 of households are in rural areas
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6. Household Food Consumption Patterns: Rural / Urban
Cereal Consumption : Kgs per capita
Rural Urban
Kgs. per capita Kgs. per capita
Poor Non-poor Poor Non-poor
Teff 15.3 24.6 48.6 74.1
Wheat 23.1 38.8 18.5 21.8
Maize 34.3 49.7 12.3 8.5
Sorghum 27.4 44.0 10.0 8.6
Other
cereals 17.1 27.3 32.9 38.9
Enset 14.5 28.1 3.4 2.0
Total 131.7 212.5 125.7 154.0
* Enset is converted to cereal equivalents by dividing by 2.2
• Urban consumption of teff is three times as much as rural consumption.
• Maize and sorghum are the most widely consumed staples in rural areas.
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7. Household Food Consumption Patterns
Consumption of Staples in Kilograms by AgroEcological Zone
• In the highland-enset
250
zone, enset accounts for
43 and 60 percent of the
quantities of staples 200
consumed (in cereal
equivalents) for poor and 150 Enset
non-poor households, Other Cereals
respectively. 100
Sorghum
Maize
Wheat
• Consumption of maize Teff
50
and sorghum is minimal
in large cities, whereas
they are important 0
poor nonpoor poor nonpoor poor nonpoor poor nonpoor
staples in rural areas.
Highland - Cereals Highland - Enset Drought Prone Large Cities
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8. Household Food Expenditure Patterns
• In large cities, poor and Per Capita Expenditures (Birr per person per year):
non-poor groups spend the Agro-ecological zone
largest share on teff and
other cereals in 600
comparison to other grains
500
• Drought prone areas
spend a higher share on 400
sorghum, maize and wheat Enset
Other cereals
• In highland enset areas, 300
Sorghum
the non-poor spend more Maize
200
on maize than other Wheat
cereals Teff
100
• Highland – cereal areas
have a relatively even 0
distribution of Poor Non-poor Poor Non-poor Poor Non-poor Poor Non-poor
expenditures with the Highland-cereals Highland-enset Drought prone Large cities
exception of enset
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9. Household Food Budget Shares: Urban
Poor Non-poor
Price Food budget shares Price Food budget shares
Teff 2.26 17.3 2.55 16.4
Wheat 2.08 6.0 2.24 4.3
Maize 1.63 3.2 1.60 1.2
Sorghum 1.75 2.7 1.74 1.3
Other cereals 3.23 16.7 3.93 13.3
Enset 0.79 0.4 0.81 0.1
Subtotal 46.4 36.6
Total Food
Expenditures (Birr) 634.8 1151.0
• Maize and sorghum are the lowest priced cereals.
• Poorer households allocate a larger share of their food budget for teff and wheat but spend
less in absolute monetary terms.
• Prices are higher for the non-poor for teff, wheat, and other cereals, largely reflecting higher
quality of products purchased by the non-poor.
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10. Household Food Budget Shares: Rural
Poor Non-poor
Price Food budget shares Price Food budget shares
Teff 3.09 7.9 3.03 7.3
Wheat 2.52 9.8 2.50 9.5
Maize 1.94 11.1 1.88 9.1
Sorghum 2.16 9.9 2.08 8.9
Other cereals 3.01 8.6 3.03 8.1
Enset 0.83 2.0 0.91 2.5
Subtotal 49.4 45.5
Total Food Exp.
(Birr) 597.0 1021.4
• Poor households spend 49 percent on staple cereals and enset, whereas non-poor
households spend 46 percent.
• Prices are similar among both income groups for all cereals.
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11. Household Food Budget Shares: Rural AgEcol Zone
Food budget Shares on major cereals by AgroEcological Zone
Highland - Cereals Highland - Enset Drought Prone Large Cities
Poor Non- poor Poor Non- poor Poor Non- poor Poor Non- poor
Teff 12.1 11.6 2.9 2.6 6.2 4.3 21.5 17.3
Wheat 10.3 11.6 5.4 4.8 11.8 9.2 3.9 3.1
Maize 10.3 8.3 13.9 11.7 10.1 9.0 1.0 0.4
Sorghum 7.6 6.3 7.6 5.1 13.2 14.4 0.6 0.3
Other
Cereals 11.0 9.8 4.7 5.4 8.3 7.2 21.4 15.7
Enset 0.7 1.1 5.2 6.5 1.8 2.4 0.0 0.0
Subtotal 52.0 48.7 39.7 36.1 51.5 46.4 48.5 36.7
• Wheat is a predominate expenditure in the rural highland–cereal and drought prone areas
• A large share of the household food budget is used on sorghum in drought-prone areas
• Larger cities have extremely low maize and sorghum expenditures
• Highland – enset areas spend more on enset compared to other agecol zones
• Highland – enset areas spend more on maize in comparison to other cereals and other zones
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12. Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption 2004/05
Enset &
Other root Pulses & Animal
Teff Wheat cereals crops oil seeds products Others Total
National 254 294 938 306 214 59 265 2330
Urban 602 201 461 100 272 65 288 1988
Rural 197 310 1017 340 204 58 261 2386
Expenditure Quintiles
Q1 162 197 643 196 127 33 171 1529
Q2 208 259 913 290 186 52 229 2137
Q3 264 351 1070 329 240 60 273 2588
Q4 311 387 1095 394 271 77 319 2853
Q5 425 338 1154 395 317 98 425 3151
• On a national level, rural areas have a higher level of calorie consumption than do urban
areas.
• In general, the level of calories consumed rises with per capita expenditures.
• 3 times more teff is consumed in urban areas.
• 3 times more enset and root crops are consumed in the rural areas.
• One and a half times more wheat is consumed in rural areas.
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13. Ethiopia: Calorie Consumption 2004/05
Rural Urban
2% 11% 8% 15%
3% Teff
13% 30%
Wheat
9%
Other Cereals
14% Enset & root crops
Pulses & oil seeds
14%
Animal products
5% 10% Others
43%
23%
• A majority (over 50%) of calories in urban areas are derived from teff and other cereals
• A higher share of calories in urban areas is derived from teff and pulses than in rural areas
• The majority of calories in rural areas are derived from wheat, other cereals and enset.
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14. Data and Methods: Linear Approximate AIDS Model
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15. Data and Methods: Quadratic AID Model
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16. Estimation Procedure
• This analysis uses enumeration area quintile level data was generated by taking the
mean of household level data
• Reduces zero expenditures compared to household level data
• Larger number of observations compared to EA level data
•Two sets of elasticities are estimated:
• Elasticities by location (Urban / Rural Regression)
•Elasticities by income groups
•Categories: For the LA–AIDS there are 9 categories and QU–AIDM there are 10
categories
• Maize and sorghum are combined to create a single category in LA-AIDS model
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17. Estimation Procedure (cont.)
•Unit values are used to proxy price:
•The use of unit values have certain drawbacks: (Deaton 1987, 1988,
1990 & 1997)
• Measurement error of quantities and values
• Unit values carry quality differences that are masked
•Zero expenditures in the data arise from imperfect recall, permanent zero
consumption and zero consumption during the survey period
• We partially adjust for these figures by aggregating the household level
data at the EA quintile level
•Elasticity estimates for the richest 60 percent and the poorest 40 percent of
households are calculated using the coefficients from the entire rural (urban)
sample regression, evaluated at the mean budget shares of each group
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20. Findings: Expenditure Elasticities
National Results
• Rural households have Expenditure Elasticities by Location and Income Group
LA-AIDS QU-AIDM
higher expenditure
National Top 60% Bottom 40% National
elasticities of animal
Item Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban Rural Urban
products; fruits, vegetables
Teff 0.20 0.90 0.12 0.20 0.28 0.94 0.90 0.90
and other foods
Wheat 0.59 0.70 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.77 0.95 0.86
Results by income group
•The bottom 40% Maize - - - - - - 0.89 0.81
households have more Sorghum - - - - - - 0.88 0.72
Maize &
responsive demand for Sorghum 0.43 0.90 0.39 0.43 0.47 0.95 - -
cereals Pulses &
Other Cereals 0.91 0.60 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.67 0.93 0.95
• Expenditure elasticities for Animal
cereals are higher in urban Products 1.52 1.10 1.54 1.52 1.49 1.08 1.02 0.93
Fruits,
areas in both categories Vegetables &
• Expenditure elasticities for root crops 1.17 1.00 1.19 1.17 1.14 1.03 1.00 0.94
animal products; fruits, Other foods 1.16 0.80 1.15 1.16 1.16 0.80 1.03 0.90
vegetables and other foods
are higher in the top 60%
urban areas
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21. Findings: Own-Price Elasticities
National Results
• Own price elasticities for all Summary of Own Price Elasticities
cereals (teff, wheat, maize and LA-AIDS QU-AIDM
sorghum) are higher in urban areas National National
Item Rural Urban Rural Urban
• Price elasticities for animal Teff 0.35 -1.22 -0.68 -0.87
products; fruits, vegetables and Wheat -0.21 -1.18 -0.91 -1.11
root crops; and other foods are Maize - - -0.05 0.16
higher in rural areas – this may be Sorghum - - 0.10 0.37
- -
due to: Maize & Sorghum 3.12 7.48
• Income disparities between Pulses & Other Cereals -1.69 -1.63 -1.12 -0.89
rural and urban areas Animal Products -1.18 -0.76 -1.07 -0.97
• Rural households have Fruits, Vegetables & root crops -1.95 -1.48 -1.24 -1.10
relatively higher per capita Other foods -1.31 -0.97 -0.92 -0.85
consumption of cereals
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22. Findings: Own-Price Elasticities (cont.)
• In both models, at the national level, some cereals show positive
elasticities:
• LA-AIDS model: maize and sorghum in both rural and urban areas
show positive elasticities
• QU-AIDM: sorghum in rural areas and maize in urban areas are positive
• These positive elasticities may be due to:
• Expenditure / income effect is greater than substitution effect
• Farmers are both producers and consumers of food
• Maize and sorghum may be perceived as extremely inferior goods
(Giffen goods) in comparison to other cereals such as teff and wheat.
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23. Findings: Own-Price Elasticities by Income Group
Summary of Own Price Elasticities
• For both income categories, LA-AIDS
price elasticities of demand for Top 60% Bottom 40%
all cereals is higher in urban Item Rural Urban Rural Urban
areas Teff 0.46 -1.15 0.22 -1.10
Wheat -0.17 -1.19 -0.24 -1.11
• The top 60% households have a Maize - - - -
higher price elasticity of demand Sorghum - - - -
than the bottom 40% overall. Maize & Sorghum 3.35 7.46 2.84 4.02
Pulses & Other Cereals -1.75 -1.66 -1.62 -1.44
•Price elasticities for animal Animal Products -1.19 -0.77 -1.17 -0.74
products; fruits, vegetables and Fruits, Vegetables & root crops -2.07 -1.49 -1.81 -1.39
root crops; and other foods are Other foods -1.29 -1.05 -1.33 -1.03
higher in rural areas
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25. Conclusions
• There are substantial differences in staple food consumption across rural
and urban, across agro-ecological zones (for rural households) and across
income groups.
• Teff consumption (kgs per capita) is 3 times higher in urban than in rural
areas.
• Maize and sorghum account for 34 percent of calorie consumption in
rural Ethiopia.
• Enset accounts for 22 percent of calories in the highland enset-based
agro-ecological zone.
• Expenditure elasticities of demand for staples are generally higher for the
poor than for the non-poor: poor households tend to spend a higher
percentage of additional incomes on food staples than do non-poor
households.
• For most household groups in Ethiopia, own-price elasticities for cereals are
large (-0.21 to -1.69) indicating substantial response to change in prices.
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26. Conclusions (cont.)
• Imposition of a uniform income tax would affect food consumption of urban
households more than rural households
• Urban households have higher expenditure elasticities for staples
• The poorest 40% would be more affected than the richest 60% because
they have higher budget shares for staples
• Although public wheat imports and food aid is designed to primarily benefit low
and middle income households, the richer 60% of households also benefit
substantially from reduced grain prices and would significantly increase their
wheat consumption
• Their own-price elasticity of demand for wheat is high (-1.19 )
• The wheat budget share is higher for the poor, however
• Poor households also have price-elastic demand for wheat and increase
their wheat consumption when market prices fall.
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