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Daily i-forex-report-1 by epic research 06 june 2013
1. DAILY I FOREX REPORT
6TH
JUN 2013
WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
2. WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO +91 7316642300
Euro-Zone Economy
Contracts For A Sixth
Consecutive Month, As
Estimated
Dollar: Is There Enough in
ISM Services Data to Stoke
Taper Talk?
A valiant effort was made by the US dollar to regain
some of the significant ground lost on Monday. Yet, the
rebound wouldn’t fully balance the greenback; and the
currency subsequently looks more sensitive to
disappointing news than encouraging. Without further
fundamental support, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar
Index (ticker = USDollar) is notably fatigued having
rallied to near-three year highs. To keep the drive
intact – especially against the current of persistent
stimulus hopes – bulls need convincing. A market-wide
deleveraging on risky positions would be a windfall for
the safe haven dollar, but that potent scenario
shouldn’t be depended on given the persistence of
benchmarks like the S&P 500.
Turning sentiment would be a serious fundamental
feat, but it can be leveraged under the right
conditions. Rather than awaiting a financial crisis hot
spot, realization that fundamentals don’t match price,
witness excessive leverage collapse in on itself; the
most sinister spark would be to remove the source of
investors’ indomitable confidence: threaten stimulus.
The upcoming list of ISM service sector activity, ADP
employment and Fed Beige Book could tap that nerve.
Though, a weak showing like the factory report
Monday could spur ‘QE-infinity’ expectations.
TRADING TIPS
BUY EURUSD ABOVE
1.3110 TGT 1.3130/1.3150
SL 1.3080
SELL USDJPY BELOW 99.30
TGT 99.10/98.90 SL 99.60
BUY GBPUSD ABOVE
1.5375 TGT 1.5395/1.5415
SL 1.5345
HEADLINES
8. Date Time Currency Event Importance Actual Forecast Previous Notes
Sun
Jun 2
18:00
USD Fed's Bernanke
Gives Graduation
Speech at Princeton
University
Low
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Manufacturing Index
(MAY)
Medium 43.8 36.7
23:50
JPY Capital Spending
(1Q)
Medium -3.9% -5.5% -8.7%
23:50
JPY Capital Spending
excl Software (1Q)
Medium -5.2% -5.4% -7.2%
Mon
Jun 3
00:00
AUD RPData-Rismark
House PX Actual
(MAY)
Low -1.2% -0.5%
00:30
AUD TD Securities
Inflation (MoM) (MAY)
Low 0.2% 0.3%
00:30
AUD TD Securities
Inflation (YoY) (MAY)
Low 2.2% 2.1%
01:00
CNY Non-
manufacturing PMI
(MAY)
Medium 54.3 54.5
01:30
AUD ANZ Job
Advertisements (MoM)
(MAY)
Low -2.4% -1.7%
01:30
AUD Retail Sales s.a.
(MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.2% 0.3% -0.4%
01:30
AUD Company
Operating Profit (QoQ)
(1Q)
Low 3.0% 1.5% -0.5%
01:30 AUD Inventories (1Q) Low -0.6% 0.0% 0.2%
01:45
CNY HSBC
Manufacturing PMI
(MAY)
Medium 49.2 49.6 50.4
01:50
USD Fed's Yellen
Speaks on Regulation
in Shanghai
Low
05:00
JPY Vehicle Sales
(YoY) (MAY)
Low -7.3% 2.0%
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity
Price Index (MAY)
Low 87.0 85.5
06:30
AUD RBA Commodity
Index SDR (YoY)
(MAY)
Low -8.6% -7.3%
ECONOMIC CALLENDER
9. 07:30
CHF SVME-Purchasing
Managers Index (MAY)
Medium 52.2 50.8 50.2
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing (MAY)
Low 47.3 46.2 45.5
07:50
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY F)
Low 46.4 45.5 45.5
07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY F)
Medium 49.4 49.0 49.0
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Manufacturing
(MAY F)
Medium 48.3 47.8 47.8
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Manufacturing (MAY)
Medium 51.3 50.3 50.2
11:20
USD Fed's Williams
Speaks in Stockholm
Low
12:58
USD Markit US PMI
Final (MAY)
Low 52.0 52.0
14:00
USD Construction
Spending (MoM) (APR)
Medium 0.9% -1.7%
14:00
USD ISM
Manufacturing (MAY)
High 50.7 50.7
14:00
USD ISM Prices Paid
(MAY)
Medium 49.5 50
14:00
USD Revisions to
Construction data back
to Jan. 2011
Low
21:00
USD Total Vehicle
Sales (MAY)
Low 15.10M 14.88M
21:00
USD Domestic Vehicle
Sales (MAY)
Low 11.95M 11.76M
23:01
GBP BRC Sales Like-
For-Like (MAY)
Low 1.3% -2.2%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base
(YoY) (MAY)
Low 23.1%
23:50
JPY Monetary Base
End of period (MAY)
Low ¥155.3T
Tue
Jun 4
GBP Halifax Plc House
Prices s.a. (MoM)
(MAY)
Low 0.3% 1.1%
GBP Halifax House
Price (3MoY) (MAY)
Low 2.5% 2.0%
01:30
AUD Current Account
Balance (Australian
Dollar) (1Q)
Medium -9000M -14678M
01:30
AUD Australia Net
Exports of GDP (1Q)
Low 0.8 0.6
10. 01:30
JPY Labor Cash
Earnings (YoY) (APR)
Medium -0.6%
04:30
LIVE
AUD Reserve Bank of
Australia Rate Decision
(JUN 4)
High 2.75% 2.75%
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Construction (MAY)
Medium 49.6 49.4
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Producer Price Index
(MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Producer Price Index
(YoY) (APR)
Medium 0.3% 0.7%
12:30
CAD International
Merchandise Trade
(Canadian dollar)
(APR)
Low -0.60B 0.02B
12:30
USD Annual Revisions
of the International
Trade Report
Low
12:30
USD Trade Balance
(APR)
Medium -$41.0B -$38.8B
13:45
USD ISM New York
(MAY)
Low 58.3
14:00
USD IBD/TIPP
Economic Optimism
(JUN)
Low 50 45.1
17:30
USD Fed's George
Speaks on Economy in
New Mexico
Low
22:45
NZD Value of All
Buildings s.a. (1Q)
Low 1.8%
23:01
GBP BRC Shop Price
Index (MAY)
Low 0.4%
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Service Index (MAY)
Medium 44.1
Wed
Jun 5
00:00
USD Fed's Fisher
Speaks on Monetary
Policy in Toronto
Low
01:00
NZD ANZ Commodity
Price (MAY)
Low 12.6%
01:30
AUD Gross Domestic
Product (QoQ) (1Q)
Medium 0.8% 0.6%
01:30
AUD Gross Domestic
Product (YoY) (1Q)
High 2.7% 3.1%
01:45
CNY HSBC Services
PMI (MAY)
Medium 51.1
07:45
EUR Italian Purchasing
Manager Index
Services (MAY)
Low 47.5 47
07:50
EUR French
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY F)
Low 44.3 44.3
11. 07:55
EUR German
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY F)
Medium 49.8 49.8
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Services (MAY F)
Medium 47.5 47.5
08:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Purchasing Manager
Index Composite (MAY
F)
Medium 47.7
08:30
GBP Purchasing
Manager Index
Services (MAY)
Medium 53.2 52.9
08:30
GBP Official Reserves
(Changes) (MAY)
Low -$1149M
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(QoQ) (1Q P)
High -0.2% -0.2%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Domestic Product s.a.
(YoY) (1Q P)
High -1.0% -1.0%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Household
Consumption (QoQ)
(1Q P)
Low -0.4%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Gross
Fixed Capital (QoQ)
(1Q P)
Low -1.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone
Government
Expenditure (QoQ) (1Q
P)
Low -0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
Sales (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.2% -0.1%
09:00
EUR Euro-Zone Retail
Sales (YoY) (APR)
Medium -0.6% -2.4%
11:00
USD MBA Mortgage
Applications (MAY 31)
Low -8.8%
12:15
USD ADP Employment
Change (MAY)
Medium 170K 119K
12:30
CAD Building Permits
(MoM) (APR)
Medium -2.3% 8.6%
12:30
USD Non-Farm
Productivity (1Q F)
Low 0.7% 0.7%
12:30
USD Unit Labor Costs
(1Q F)
Low 0.5% 0.5%
14:00
USD Factory Orders
(APR)
Medium 1.4% -4.0%
14:00
LIVE
USD USD ISM Non-
Manufacutring
Composite (MAY)
Medium 53.5 53.1
14:30
USD DOE U.S. Crude
Oil Inventories (MAY
31)
Low 3000K
14:30
USD DOE Cushing OK
Crude Inventory (MAY
Low 335K
12. 31)
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Gasoline Inventories
(MAY 31)
Low -1514K
14:30
USD DOE U.S.
Distillate Inventory
(MAY 31)
Low 1851K
18:00
USD US Federal
Reserve Releases
Beige Book
Medium
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Medium -¥1117.3B
23:50
JPY Japan Buying
Foreign Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Medium -¥104.9B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Bonds (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Low -¥457.2B
23:50
JPY Foreign Buying
Japan Stocks (Yen)
(MAY 31)
Low ¥27.4B
Thu
Jun 6
01:30
AUD Trade Balance
(Australian dollar)
(APR)
Medium 180M 307M
02:00
JPY Tokyo Avg Office
Vacancies (%) (MAY)
Low 8.54
05:30
EUR French ILO
Unemployment Rate
(1Q)
Low 10.6%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price
Index (MoM) (MAY)
Low 0.1% 0.0%
07:15
CHF Consumer Price
Index (YoY) (MAY)
Medium -0.6% -0.6%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU
Harmonised (MoM)
(MAY)
Low -0.1%
07:15
CHF CPI - EU
Harmonised (YoY)
(MAY)
Medium -0.4%
08:30
GBP Lloyds
Employment
Confidence (MAY)
Low -41
10:00
EUR German Factory
Orders s.a. (MoM)
(APR)
Low -1.0% 2.2%
10:00
EUR German Factory
Orders n.s.a. (YoY)
(APR)
Medium -0.2% -0.4%
11:00
LIVE
GBP Bank of England
Rate Decision (JUN 6)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:00
GBP BOE Asset
Purchase Target (JUN)
High 375B 375B
11:30
USD Challenger Job
Cuts (YoY) (MAY)
Low -6.0%
13. 11:30
USD RBC Consumer
Outlook Index (JUN)
Low 50.2
11:45
LIVE
EUR European Central
Bank Rate Decision
(JUN 6)
High 0.50% 0.50%
11:45
LIVE
EUR ECB Deposit
Facility Rate (JUN 6)
High 0.00% 0.00%
12:00
USD Fed's Plosser
Speaks on Economy in
Boston
Low
12:30
USD Initial Jobless
Claims (JUN 1)
Medium 345K 354K
12:30
USD Continuing Claims
(MAY 25)
Low 2986K
14:00
CAD Ivey Purchasing
Managers Index s.a.
(MAY)
Medium 55 52.2
14:30
USD EIA Natural Gas
Storage Change (MAY
31)
Low 88
16:00
USD Household
Change in Net Worth
(1Q)
Low $1174B
23:30
AUD AiG Performance
of Construction Index
(MAY)
Medium 35.2
23:50
JPY Official Reserve
Assets (MAY)
Low $1258.0B
Fri
Jun 7
GBP New Car
Registrations (YoY)
(MAY)
Low 14.8%
05:00
JPY Coincident Index
(APR P)
Low 94.9 93.8
05:00
JPY Leading Index
(APR P)
Medium 98.6 97.9
06:00
EUR German Trade
Balance (euros) (APR)
Medium 17.0B 18.8B
06:00
EUR German Current
Account (euros) (APR)
Low 13.0B 20.2B
06:00
EUR German Imports
s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low 0.8%
06:00
EUR German Exports
s.a. (MoM) (APR)
Low -0.8% 0.5%
06:00
EUR German Labor
Costs Workday Adj
(YoY) (1Q)
Low 2.9%
06:00
EUR German Labor
Costs Seas. Adj. (QoQ)
(1Q)
Low 0.8%
06:30
AUD Foreign Reserves
(Australian dollar)
(MAY)
Low A$49.8B
07:00
CHF Foreign Currency
Reserves (MAY)
Low 433.6B
14. 08:30
GBP Visible Trade
Balance (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -£8800 -£9056
08:30
GBP Trade Balance
Non EU (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -£3700 -£3470
08:30
GBP Total Trade
Balance (Pounds)
(APR)
Medium -£3000 -£3130
10:00
EUR German Industrial
Production s.a. (MoM)
(APR)
Low 0.3% 1.2%
10:00
EUR German Industrial
Production n.s.a. and
w.d.a. (YoY) (APR)
Medium -0.8% -2.5%
12:30
LIVE
USD Unemployment
Rate (MAY)
High 7.5% 7.5%
12:30
LIVE
USD Change in Non-
farm Payrolls (MAY)
High 168K 165K
12:30
USD Change in Private
Payrolls (MAY)
Medium 175K 176K
12:30
USD Change in
Manufacturing Payrolls
(MAY)
Low 3K 0K
12:30
USD Change in
Household
Employment (MAY)
Low 293
12:30
USD Underemployment
Rate (U6) (MAY)
Medium 13.9%
12:30
USD Average Hourly
Earning All Employees
(MoM) (MAY)
Low 0.2% 0.2%
12:30
USD Average Hourly
Earning All Employees
(YoY) (MAY)
Medium 2.1% 1.9%
12:30
USD Average Weekly
Hours All Employees
(MAY)
Low 34.5 34.4
12:30
USD Two-Month
Payroll Net Revision
(MAY)
Medium
12:30
CAD Unemployment
Rate (MAY)
High 7.1% 7.2%
12:30
CAD Net Change in
Employment (MAY)
High 18.0K 12.5K
12:30
CAD Full Time
Employment Change
(MAY)
Medium 36
12:30
CAD Part Time
Employment Change
(MAY)
Low -23.6
12:30
CAD Participation Rate
(MAY)
Low 66.5
12:30
CAD Labor Productivity
(QoQ) (1Q)
Low 0.1%
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