View stunning SlideShares in full-screen with the new iOS app!Introducing SlideShare for AndroidExplore all your favorite topics in the SlideShare appGet the SlideShare app to Save for Later — even offline
View stunning SlideShares in full-screen with the new Android app!View stunning SlideShares in full-screen with the new iOS app!
Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality Environmental and Natural Resources Policy- Case studyElnara Mehdiyeva Anaa Saleem Andrea Cecchi
• The objectives of the case• Introduction• The main motivations for travelling• The ways how weather is characterised by different type of leisure• Tourism Seasonality• The Tourism Climatic Index• Conceptual framework of tourism climate distributions• Methods & Results• Conclusion• Questions
• To assess the potential implications of projected climate change on international &1 regional tourism flows throughout the 21 c. • To assess the implications of projected climate change on tourism seasonality in the2 summer European market
• Climate change as a significant social& environmental issue• The rise of temperature since 1861 as the proves of Global Climate change• The rise of global sea level• Possible changes in the future
• The impact of psychological needs• The ‘’push’’ & ‘’pull’’ factors• A strong relationship between the weather and tendency to travel
• The IISD’s point of view distinction between tourism and recreation• Smith’s discrimination of climate- dependent & weather-sensitive tourism Climate Changes in change Time climatic seasonality
• The seasonality caused by: Institutional factors Natural factors Examples: Examples: Timing of religious Temperature (i.e. Christmas) Perception Timing of school Depth of Snow Annual festival Positive to the opportunities for ecological and community recovery which provided during the offseason.
• TCI allows quantitative evaluation of the world’s climate for the purpose of general tourism activity.• TCI designed to indicate the level of climatic comfort for tourism activity but NOT the tourism infrastructures (e.g. transportation).
1- Daytime comfort • Maximum daily temperature (ºC) index • Minimum daily relative humidity (%) • Mean daily temperature (ºC)2- Daily comfort index • Mean daily relative humidity (%) 3- Precipitation • Precipitation (mm) 4- Sunshine • Daily duration of sunshine (hours) 5- Wind speed • Average Wind speed (m/s or km/h)
• TCI index has rating numbers of the comfort level of tourism activities, and thus, a region with a high TCI may experience low levels of tourism arrivals, and on the other hand, a region with a low TCI may experience high levels of tourism arrivals, because a multitude of other factors besides climatic conditions influence tourism activity. Value of index Value of index Value of index Value of index 10-19 50-59 below 990-100 Ideal extremely Acceptable Impossible comfort of unfavorable comfort of comfort ofTourism Activity comfort of Tourism Activity Tourism Activity Tourism Activity
• TCI includes the most • TCI indicates the most favorable climate conditions favorable climate for general occur in the conditions for peak general (northern) summer months tourism activity occur in the (northern) winter months Summer Winter Peak peak Bimodal Dry shoulder season• TCI indicates the most peaks peak • TCI indicates the most favorable climate favorable climate conditions conditions for general or general tourism activity tourism activity occur in occur in the dry season; the spring and autumn applies, e.g., to the monsoon (shoulder) months regions of Asia
TCI calculated for a series of current and future time spans We consider two different scenarios:• A1: rapid and successful economic development; high rates of innovation and investments• B1: environmentally and socially conscious future, globally approach to sustainable development
We focus the results on: Northern hemispheric summer Number of locations included in “good months”Changes will be based on the two climate changescenarios
• Strong correlation between TCI index and currently popular summer destinations• FUTURE A1: pronounced poleward movement in tourism comfort ideal conditions: northern Europe andCanada• FUTURE B1: less dramatic poleward shift• ideal conditions: northern France, southern parts of UK and southern Scandinavia
CURRENTLY Regions of high confort >10 months (Egypt, Morocco, shifting southwardsMexico, and Perù)6/7 months (Spain, Italy, Greece,Turkey …) • i.e. From the coast of Peru2/3 months (Denmark, Sweden, to that of ChileFinland …) FUTURE (by 2080s) • i.e From the north ofA1 No more high comfort Australia to the south sideplaces Trends repeated across bothB1 Just a handful of A1 and B1 scenarioscomfortable condition areasIMPLICATIONS:European tourism is moving northwardsSouth of Europe from 7 to 4 “good months”North of Europe will increase its level ofcomfort
• Climate is a principal resource for tourism & a principal driver of global seasonality in tourism demand• Climate affects a wide range of the environmental resources that are critical attractions for tourism, such as snow conditions, wildlife productivity and biodiversity• The countries that experience better summer conditions would face large increases in visitation without being able to shift some additional demand to the shoulder seasons• Climate change bring some relief to extreme cases of seasonality, but institutions & tourists should be sensitive
• Is TCI a proper index to assess to most comfort places? Is the empirical view agreed with the results of index?• Do you think that the climate changes will negatively influence on willingness to travel to habitual destinations?
Resources:• Implication of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality (Bas Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner) Journal of Travel Research 2007 45:285• Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285• B., Nicholls, S., & Viner, D.. (2007, January 1). TCI Values. Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality. Retrieved December 5, 2012, from Amelung, Sarah Nicholls and david Viner. (2007, January 1). Implications of Global Climate Change for Tourism Flows and Seasonality . Journal of Travel Research . Retrieved December 5, 2012, from http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/45/3/285 http://www.carrs.msu.edu/Main/People/faculty%20bios/extra/nicho210-journal.pdf