The market detective is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT). He uses technical analysis to identify market turning points and opportunities. He is primarily an Elliottician, he uses the Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci ratio analysis to uncover clues about the direction of the market. He uses other forms of technical analysis to corroborate his findings in such a way as to assign a probability factor to them.

1. 10/28/2008 9:12 PM Pacific
The regular flat thesis overcame its problems and emerges as the most probable primary
thesis. It can reach 105000 from here in 5 completed waves with common Fibonacci
extension and retracement levels. One probable path is charted below on this 233 minute
S&P e-minis chart.
The possibility of completing only 3 waves and turning down comes into play in the first
target zone for wave 3 at the 97450ish level. This is the .618 retracement level of the
move down from A (not shown). I am looking for a probable 3 wave Fibonacci
retracement of roughly only .250 down from this level, which is the hypothetical level
shown. A shallow retracement from this level is necessary in order to reach the Flat
target with common Fibonacci extensions.
If price pushes through to the 10000 level before completing wave 3 up, the possibility of
a turn rather than a retracement diminishes. From 10000, a .382 retracement for wave 4
is more probable. That brings price back to 93250ish before turning back up for wave 5.

2. 10/28/2008 9:12 PM Pacific
Of course, there are other possibilities, but these are the probable options for completing
wave C of the Flat thesis. If price varies significantly from this forecast, then an alternate
thesis must be considered.
TMD/DW
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