The superpower competition for power and influence between the United States and China will likely profoundly impact Asian politics and security in the 21st century. Already, while Chinese economic and military might are on the rise, emboldening its policymaking on issues like the South China Sea, the US has taken countermeasures to protect its regional interests. Washington has put into motion its so-called “pivot to Asia,” which has enhanced America’s economic, military and diplomatic investment to the region.
This is the regional environment that Indonesia is situated in nowadays and likely for the foreseeable future. Caught in the middle of this superpower competition, however, doesn’t mean that Indonesia is in a hopeless or unpredictable situation. It has a number of strategic options at its disposal.
This reality, let’s call it strategic flexibility, is the result of two things. First, over the last two decades, Jakarta has fairly consistently pursued a foreign policy of “friends with no enemies.” And second, Indonesia’s history isn’t marred by heated regional rivalries and enmity. As a result, Indonesia hasn’t strategically backed itself into a corner, limiting its options and choices. More to the point, it doesn’t have the foreign policy obstacles that countries like Japan and South Korea currently face.
Instead, at this point, Indonesia has relative freedom to make and implement the foreign policies it wants. In this sense, Indonesia’s comity and friendliness with foreign countries has served it well.
As it stands right now, to cope with the superpower competition while protecting its national interests, Indonesia has five broad strategic options.
Indonesia can remain neutral and on the sidelines, preferring to stay out of any confrontation between Beijing and Washington. Indonesia can choose sides, opting for either China or America. Or it can act as a mediator or troubleshooter between China and the US, actively attempting to keep superpower relations smooth and conflict-free.
Picking sides and playing China and America off each other are, by far, the two riskiest options. Should Jakarta decide to align itself with Washington or Beijing, the side that Indonesia didn’t pick will be angry, causing fraying and disruptions in relations with that side.
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Jakarta Capital Environmental Blog, Crown Eco Management: Amid US-China Competition, What Are Indonesia’s Strategic Options?
1. Jakarta Capital
Environmental
Blog, Crown Eco
Management
http://www.thejakartaglobe.com/columns/amid-us-china-competition-what-are-
indonesias-strategic-options/583067
2. Amid US-
China
Competition,
What Are
Indonesia’s
Strategic
Options?
3. The superpower competition for power and influence between the
United States and China will likely profoundly impact Asian politics
and security in the 21st century. Already, while Chinese economic
and military might are on the rise, emboldening its policymaking on
issues like the South China Sea, the US has taken countermeasures to
protect its regional interests. Washington has put into motion its so-
called “pivot to Asia,” which has enhanced America’s
economic, military and diplomatic investment to the region.
This is the regional environment that Indonesia is situated in
nowadays and likely for the foreseeable future. Caught in the middle
of this superpower competition, however, doesn’t mean that
Indonesia is in a hopeless or unpredictable situation. It has a number
of strategic options at its disposal.
4. This reality, let’s call it strategic flexibility, is the result of two
things. First, over the last two decades, Jakarta has fairly
consistently pursued a foreign policy of “friends with no enemies.”
And second, Indonesia’s history isn’t marred by heated regional
rivalries and enmity. As a result, Indonesia hasn’t strategically
backed itself into a corner, limiting its options and choices. More
to the point, it doesn’t have the foreign policy obstacles that
countries like Japan and South Korea currently face.
Instead, at this point, Indonesia has relative freedom to make and
implement the foreign policies it wants. In this sense, Indonesia’s
comity and friendliness with foreign countries has served it well.
5. As it stands right now, to cope with the superpower competition
while protecting its national interests, Indonesia has five broad
strategic options.
Indonesia can remain neutral and on the sidelines, preferring to stay
out of any confrontation between Beijing and Washington. Indonesia
can choose sides, opting for either China or America. Or it can act as a
mediator or troubleshooter between China and the US, actively
attempting to keep superpower relations smooth and conflict-free.
Also, by working to write the rules of the road in Asia, thereby
shaping the regional environment in which China and America
interact, Indonesia can serve as an indirect conduit between both
powers. And finally, Indonesia can try to play the superpowers off
each other as a way to maximize the economic, security, political and
diplomatic concessions it receives from both Washington and Beijing.
6. Picking sides and playing China and America off each other are, by
far, the two riskiest options. Should Jakarta decide to align itself
with Washington or Beijing, the side that Indonesia didn’t pick
will be angry, causing fraying and disruptions in relations with
that side.
Moreover, if Indonesia does choose sides, this may have serious
long-term consequences.
For instance, if Indonesia picks the side that eventually loses the
superpower struggle in the region, its position and prestige within
Asia will be severely compromised. Additionally, Indonesia could
select a side that breaks mutually agreed upon deals, including
security ones, or even turns aggressive toward it — something
that’s not preposterous given the history of superpower behavior.
7. To protect the country’s interests, Indonesia would likely have to
cozy up to the power it once scorned, and that power, under these
circumstances, would have enormous leverage over it.
For now, Indonesia has decided to act as an indirect conduit
between China and the US. It has focused on working through
and strengthening Association of Southeast Asian Nations
agreements and bodies, all of which provide a framework to
standardize and regulate the behavior of countries residing in and
engaging with Southeast Asia. Most notably, Indonesia, under
the leadership of Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa, has been
very active in attempting to craft a code of conduct to manage the
various disputes and conflicts in the South China Sea.
8. Such an approach is good, in that it allows Indonesia to play a
low-cost productive role in Asian security affairs. But it is also
safe and too conservative. It doesn’t allow Indonesia to exert
directly a peaceful influence on Sino-American relations —
relations that are reasonably fine right now, but could quickly
turn hostile and bloody. To do so, Jakarta would have to take on
a more active leadership role in the region. Given that officials in
Jakarta see Indonesia as an emerging leader and power in the
region, why not begin the process of shouldering more regional
responsibilities?
In my view, one way to do this is to transition toward serving as
a regional mediator and peace broker, an unbiased independent
party striving to diffuse conflicts and settle disputes.
9. labor-intensive responsibility, one that includes, among other
things, frequent shuttle diplomacy, brainstorming sessions, ego
massaging and communication-strengthening between countries.
As a regional peace broker, Indonesia could attempt to work on all
outstanding disputes and conflicts in Asia, including delving into
the knotty Korean hostilities, but place special attention on Sino-
American ties. The payoff for such a role for Indonesia would likely
be very big.
In particular, it would enhance worldwide respect for Indonesia. It
would cultivate an image of Indonesia as an effective diplomatic
problem solver. It would firmly place the country on the road to
regional leadership, perhaps to the point that others begin to see
Indonesia as the indispensable actor in the region.
10. And keep in mind all of these things, in turn, could very well
create economic, security, and political benefits.
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