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  • 1. ECONOMIC CAPSULE June 2012 < Research & Development Unit >
  • 2. CONTENTSECONOMIC & BUSINESS NEWS   GLOBAL UPDATE Sri Lanka to Issue USD 1Bn International Sovereign Bond  Moody’s Downgrade Hits 15 Top Banks CBSL’s USD 150 mn Development Bond Oversubscribed  Asian Banks Make the Lions Share of Global Profits Highlights of the Census of Population and Housing  World GDP Sri Lanka Climbs 56 Positions in the Logistics Performance Index 2012  Steps Taken by India to Support RupeeFINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS  ANALYSIS & FORECAST Commercial Bank Records Highest Growth in ‘Inter-Bank Electronic’ Payments  Fiscal Management Snapshot Sri Lanka Banking System Assigned Group 8 Banking Industry Country Risk  Foreign Financing Assessment (BICRA) by Standard & Poors  Sri Lanka - Selected Economic Indicators Standard & Poors Ratings Services BICRA Scores for the 87 Banking Systems Response of the CBSL to the Standard and Poor’s Assessment of the Sri Lankan Banking System Standard & Poor’s Launches S&P Sri Lanka 20 Index Service Points Openings < Research & Development Unit >
  • 3. ECONOMIC & BUSINESS NEWS
  • 4. Sri Lanka to Issue USD 1Bn International Sovereign Bond The Central Bank of Sri Lanka Previous Issues: (CBSL), is currently planning an issuance of an International Year Amount Period Interest Oversubscribed Distribution Sovereign Bond of up to USD (USD mn) Rate by 1,000 mn in the international capital market at an USA - 40% 2007 500 5 years 8.25% More than 03 appropriate maturity. times Europe - 30% Asia - 30% For this purpose, after evaluation of eight proposals USA - 45% 2009 500 5 years 7.40% More than 13 received, CBSL has selected times Europe - 31% four leading international Asia - 24% investment banks, namely Bank of America Merrill Lynch, More than 06 USA - 52.5% Barclays Capital, Citibank NA, 2010 1,000 10 years 6.25% times Europe - 25.0% The Hongkong and Shanghai Asia - 22.5% Banking Corporation Limited as Joint Lead Managers, Book More than 7.5 USA - 43% 2011 1,000 10 years 6.25% times runners and Underwriters for Europe - 30% the proposed Sovereign Bond Asia - 27% issuance.< Research & Development Unit >
  • 5. CBSL’s USD 150 mn Development Bond Oversubscribed  CBSL‟s offer of USD 150 mn Sri Lanka Development Bonds (SLDBs) was oversubscribed by 1.5 times with total bid received amounting to USD 229.02 mn.  “In view of the high demand by the investors, the Government decided to accept USD 229.02 mn in 3 year maturity at the market determined rates of USD 6 month LIBOR + 410 bps (weighted average margin)” CBSL stated. *The USD 6 month LIBOR rate as at 25 June - 0.73< Research & Development Unit >
  • 6. Highlights of the Census of Population and Housing  Population according latest Census which covered the entire country after a lapse of 30 years was reported as 20,277,597.  Average annual population growth rate between 1981 and 2012 stood at 1.0 %, while the same between the intercensal period of 2001 and 2012 was reported as 0.7%. It can therefore be concluded that the population of Sri Lanka is still growing but at a lesser rate.  Major share of 28.8 % of the population live in the Western province while only 5.2 % of the total population live in the Northern Province.  Colombo district reported the highest of 2,323,826 while, Gampaha district reported the second largest population of 2,298,588.  Kurunegala (1,611,407), Kandy(1,368,216), Kalutara (1,214,880), Ratnapura (1,082,299), and Galle (1,059,046) districts reported population more than a million in each of them.  Mullaitivu (92,228) district reported the lowest population followed by Mannar(99,063) district. Only these two districts reported population of less than one hundred thousand.  Colombo district reported the highest population density of 3,438 persons per square kilometer. The next highest population density of 1,714 persons per square kilometre was reported from the adjoining Gampaha district.  Lowest population density of 39 persons per square kilometre was recorded in Mullaitivu Source: Department of Census and Statistics< Research & Development Unit >
  • 7. Sri Lanka Climbs 56 Positions in the Logistics Performance Index 2012 - Top 10 The World Bank Logistics Performance Index (LPI) 2012 released recently has ranked Sri Lanka in 81st position. Sri Lanka has climbed 56 positions in the 2012 survey to be ranked 81 out of 155 countries (137 in 2010). This is the third edition of “Connecting to Compete: Trade Logistics in the Global Economy”, produced by the World Bank once in two years. Sri Lanka Source: The World Bank< Research & Development Unit >
  • 8. FINANCIAL SECTOR NEWS
  • 9. Commercial Bank Records Highest Growth in ‘Inter-Bank Electronic’ Payments  Commercial Bank has been recognised as the „Bank with the Highest Growth‟ in the „High Volume Bank Category‟ among banks using the Sri Lanka Inter Bank Payment System (SLIPS) in 2011-12.  The award, presented by LankaClear (Pvt) Ltd., acknowledges Commercial Bank as the most active bank, among the big banks that conducted over a million transactions in Inter-Bank Electronic Payments, during the last financial year.< Research & Development Unit >
  • 10. Sri Lanka Banking System Assigned Group 8 Banking Industry Country RiskAssessment (BICRA) by Standard & Poors Standard & Poors Ratings Services assigned Sri Lanka to its, Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) group 8 Economic risk score of 8 Industry risk score of 7„ The BICRA groups summarize the risks that a bank operating within a particular country and banking industry faces relative to those in other banking industries. They range from group 1 (the lowest risk) to group 10 (the highest risk). Economic risk score of 8 for Sri Lanka reflects; a "very high risk" assessment of economic resilience and credit risk in the economy, and a "high risk" assessment of economic imbalances.  Economic resilience (very high risk) reflects:  Sri Lankas status as a low-income economy, as measured in terms of its per capita GDP, and the inefficiencies in the economy.  Nevertheless, Sri Lankas economic growth prospects have improved following the end of the civil war and subsequent shift in the governments focus toward boosting the economy and diversifying sources of growth. Cont.…< Research & Development Unit >
  • 11. Sri Lanka Banking System Assigned Group 8 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment(BICRA) by Standard & Poors (cont…)  Economic imbalance factors (high risk) reflects:  Economic imbalance factors in the recent pickup in growth of private sector credit.  The central banks recent directive to apply a ceiling to the credit growth of banks should help to partially curb this risk. In S&Ps view, Sri Lankas economic imbalances could increase if credit growth continues at the current pace.  Sri Lankas external position, which S&P considers to be moderately vulnerable, also affects the countrys economic imbalance. S&Ps assessment of Sri Lankas external position reflects the countrys weak external liquidity, and moderately high and increasing external debt.  Credit risk (very high risk)  Credit risk in Sri Lanka takes into account moderate private sector debt in the context of low income levels, relaxed lending practices and underwriting standards, as well as a weak payment culture and rule of law.  The use of cash flow analysis for underwriting is limited in Sri Lanka, and some exposures are concentrated. Moreover, risk management practices are evolving, in S&P‟s view. Cont.…< Research & Development Unit >
  • 12. Sri Lanka Banking System Assigned Group 8 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment(BICRA) by Standard & Poors (cont…) Industry risk score of 7 for Sri Lanka is based on S&Ps opinion that the country faces "very high risk" in its institutional framework, "high risk" in its competitive dynamics, and "intermediate risk" in its system-wide funding.  S&P view the banking regulations in Sri Lanka as somewhat weaker than international standards.  Governance and transparency of banks are weak by global standards. Sri Lanka adopted a standardized approach of Basel II in 2008, with capital requirements higher than global requirements.  The key regulations for banks seem sufficient. However, finance companies are less regulated. Under the existing legislation, banks in Sri Lanka are subject to on-site examinations by the banking sector regulator at least once every two years. S&P believe the frequency of on-site supervision may not be sufficient for the regulator to quickly detect risk build-ups.  Moreover, S&P see a potential conflict of interest in the central banks role. In addition to policy formulation and supervision of banks, the monetary board of the central bank also oversees Employees Provident Fund investments. The fund is a large investor in Sri Lankan banking stocks.  The banking sectors risk appetite is "moderate," in S&Ps view. Loan growth is high. However, banks in Sri Lanka are mostly engaged in traditional lines of business and most of their earnings come from traditional fund-based businesses.  Sri Lankas large number of banks relative to the small economy has not led to any significant instability in the competitive environment. Cont.…< Research & Development Unit >
  • 13. Sri Lanka Banking System Assigned Group 8 Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment(BICRA) by Standard & Poors (cont…)  However, the following factors have led to market distortions: (1) a significant market share (about 50%) of government-owned banks in the sector; (2) directed lending requirements toward the agriculture sector; and (3) differential use of administrative controls; e.g. a recent cap on loan growth is applicable only to banks.  Sri Lankas large proportion of highly stable core customer deposits support system-wide funding. Such deposits reduce banks dependence on external debt.  Nevertheless, S&P believe access to alternative domestic funding sources is limited because the domestic debt capital market is narrow and shallow.  In S&Ps view, the Sri Lankan government has a "supportive" tendency towards private sector banks. S&P believe that the government is committed to maintaining financial system stability and market confidence. Source: Standard & Poor’s< Research & Development Unit >
  • 14. Standard & Poors Ratings Services BICRA Scores for the 87 Banking Systems About BICRAs The strengths and weaknesses of an economy and banking industry are critical factors that underpin the creditworthiness of a countrys financial institutions. S&P distill this analysis into a single Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA), "designed to evaluate and compare global banking systems," as S&P criteria state it. A BICRA is scored on a scale from 1 to 10, ranging from what we view as the lowest-risk banking systems (group 1) to the highest-risk (group 10). The BICRA methodology has two main analytical components: "economic risk" and "industry risk." A BICRA analysis for a country covers all of its financial institutions that take deposits, extend credit, or engage in both activities, whether S&P rate them or not. In addition, the analysis considers the relationship of the banking industry to the financial system, and furthermore to its sovereign. For that reason, many of the factors underlying a sovereign rating are important in determining a BICRA score. S&P analysis of economic risk of a banking sector takes into account the structure and stability of the countrys economy, including the central governments macroeconomic policy flexibility; actual or potential economic imbalances; and the credit risk of economic participants--mainly households and enterprises. S&P view of industry risk factors in the quality and effectiveness of bank regulation and the track record of authorities in reducing vulnerability to financial crises, as well as the competitive environment of a countrys banking industry--including the industrys risk appetite, structure, and performance--and possible distortions in the market. Industry risk also addresses the range and stability of funding options available to banks, including the role of the central bank and government. Part of S&P review involves an evaluation of governments tendency to support private banks in countries where S&P assign BICRA scores. Source: Standard & Poor’s< Research & Development Unit >
  • 15. Response of the CBSL to the Standard and Poor’s Assessment of the Sri LankanBanking System Table : Key Financial Indicators  Soundness of the Banking System 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Mar12  Sri Lankan banking system is sound and resilient with Annual Growth, % the performance of the banking industry improving over past few years. Assets 16.9 7.7 11.7 17.8 19.3 24.4 Deposits 16.5 7.9 18.8 15.9 18.7 21.6  As indicated in the Table, key financial soundness Loans and advances 18.9 6.6 -2.3 23.7 31.3 35.5 indicators of the banking sector which accounts for 55% of financial system assets, were maintained at Ratio, % healthy levels. Core Capital Adequacy Ratio 12.6 12.5 14.1 14.3 13.5 13.3  The Key Financial Indicators display a conspicuous Total Capital Adequacy Ratio 14.1 14.5 16.1 16.2 15.2 14.9 improvement in the gross non performing advances Gross Non-performing Ratio 5.2 6.3 8.5 5.4 3.8 3.9 ratio (NPA) from 5.2% in 2007 to 3.8% in 2011 with Net Non-performing Ratio 2.4 3.4 5.0 3.0 2.1 2.2 absolute volumes of NPA indicating only a relatively lower growth of 25% in comparison to the overall Provisions Coverage 64.5 60.9 53.0 58.1 57.3 54.3 credit growth of 69%, during this period. Statutory Liquid Assets Ratio 30.4 31.3 39.2 36.6 32.4 31.6  The capital base of the banking sector has increased Interest Margin 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.1 nearly two fold since 2007 with the introduction of the Return on Assets (After tax) 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.8 1.7 1.8 Basel capital standards and enhanced minimum Return on Equity (After tax) 14.0 13.4 11.8 22.2 19.8 21.1 capital requirement for banks. Profitability of the banking sector, which has continuously increased, Cont.… has further reinforced the level of capital.< Research & Development Unit >
  • 16. Response of the CBSL to the Standard and Poor’s Assessment of the Sri Lankan BankingSystem (cont…)  These factors have contributed to the improvement in capital adequacy ratios despite the significant growth in assets. It is pertinent to note that the core capital ratio and total capital ratio of 5% and 10%, respectively, imposed by the Central Bank are more stringent than the international standards.  Liquidity of the banking system has been well managed with the statutory liquid assets ratio being maintained well above the limit of 20%. The growth in deposits and significant representation of retail deposits, further support liquidity risk mitigation.  Concentration of credit exposure is regulated by the Central Bank with Directions on maximum amount of accommodation, lending to related parties and banks being advised to impose sector wise exposure limits.  Any concentrations to certain entities have been permitted by the Monetary Board in consideration of national priorities and/or national interest and the ability of the banks to withstand any potential risk arising from such exposure.  Mandatory lending of at least 10% of the advances portfolio to the agriculture sector was introduced with the intention of enhancing the food sustainability of the country. Regulatory framework governing licensed banks  Despite the global financial distresses, the Sri Lankan banking industry stands resilient and the regulations in force are of international standards. Licensed banks are required to comply with the requirements of the Banking Act and Directions issued on fundamentals. The compliance of banks with these regulations is monitored strictly on an on-going basis and corrective action initiated.  A mandatory Direction on corporate governance encompassing all aspects of good governance and transparency is already in place. All these prudential regulations are given effect in line with the Basel Core Principles of effective bank supervision issued by the Bank for International Settlement, Basel and in text and action they are more stringent than those in many countries in the region as well as globally.< Research & Development Unit > Cont.…
  • 17. Response of the CBSL to the Standard and Poor’s Assessment of the Sri Lankan BankingSystem (cont…) Supervision of banks  The Central Bank has a continuous supervision process which is an uninterrupted monitoring of banks to assess the trends of banks on an individual and a system-wide basis. Mandatory deposit insurance  With a view to further strengthening financial stability in the country, the mandatory deposit insurance scheme was introduced in 2010. There have been no banking failures in Sri Lanka despite the global financial crisis. Regulation and supervision of licensed finance companies and specialized leasing companies  In addition to banks, all licensed finance companies (LFCs) and specialized leasing companies (SLCs) are also closely monitored and regulated by the Central Bank.  LFCs and SLCs are subject to on-site examinations at least once in every 2 years and weekly, monthly and quarterly reports are obtained through a web based data reporting system. Apart from the regular supervisory procedures, spot examinations are conducted when the Central Bank identifies an issue. In conclusion, Central Bank of Sri Lanka wishes to assure the public that the Sri Lankan banking system is sound and resilient and is not prone to high risk as indicated in the statement of Standard and Poor’s. Source: CBSL< Research & Development Unit >
  • 18. Standard & Poor’s Launches S&P Sri Lanka 20 Index  S&P Indices announced the launch of the S&P Sri Lanka 20, which has been jointly developed with the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE).  The Index is designed to be representative of the equity market, yet also be efficient to replicate, with possible application for index funds and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs).  The Index includes the largest 20 stocks, by total market capitalization, listed on the CSE that meet minimum size, liquidity and financial viability thresholds. The constituents are weighted by float-adjusted market capitalization, subject to a single stock cap of 15%, which is employed to enhance portfolio diversification.< Research & Development Unit >
  • 19. Service Points Openings Commercial Bank 219 Alawwa 220 Liberty Plaza Shopping Complex< Research & Development Unit >
  • 20. Global
  • 21. Moody’s Downgrade Hits 15 Top Banks Moody’s Grading Fifteen of the biggest global banks were Aaa1 downgraded on 21 June, by Moody‟s Investors Aaa2 Aaa3 Service, adding to pressure on their borrowing Investment Grade Aa1 costs and questions over their business Aa2 Aa3 models. A1 A2 The long-term senior debt ratings of 4 of these A3 Baa1 firms were downgraded by 1 notch, the ratings Baa2 of 10 firms were downgraded by 2 notches and Baa3 Ba1 1 firm was downgraded by 3 notches. Ba2 Ba3 B1 B2 B3 Caa1 Caa2 Caa3 Ca1 Ca2 Ca3 C1 C2 C3 < Research & Development Unit >
  • 22. Asian Banks Make the Lions Share of Global Profits  On July 3rd Bob Diamond, the chief executive of Barclays, resigned, days after the bank was fined a combined USD 454 mn by authorities in America and Britain for manipulating LIBOR, a benchmark interest rate. Barclays was the 18th-most-profitable bank in the world last year, raking in USD 9.1 bn in pre-tax profits and accounting for 20% of western Europes total banking profits, according to the Banker.  But the regions profitability has declined markedly since the financial crisis. In 2007, banks there made USD 363 bn, but by 2011 this had shrunk to USD 44 bn as Europes debt crisis continued.  Of the worlds largest 1,000 banks in 2011, 24 of the 25 biggest lossmakers were based in western Europe, losing USD 121 bn between them.  As the chart shows, the biggest banking profits have moved from western Europe to the Asia-Pacific region for which read China. Four of the worlds five most profitable banks in 2011 were Chinese. They made a collective profit of USD130 bn in 2011, one- Source: The Economist third of the regions total. Source: The Economist< Research & Development Unit >
  • 23. World GDP  The world economys growth accelerated in the first 03 months of the year, according to The Economist‟s measure of global GDP, based on 52 countries.  First-quarter output expanded by 2.9% compared to the same period last year.  Austerity measures in Europe, coupled with uncertainty about the future of the euro, saw the economy of the common- currency area shrink marginally.  And a more worrying sign is the fall in the contribution to world GDP of the BRIC countries, which have been widely considered the driving force behind global growth.  In America, though, despite signs that the recovery could decelerate, first-quarter growth nearly reached 2%, driven primarily by consumption and exports. Source: The Economist Source: The Economist< Research & Development Unit >
  • 24. Steps Taken by India to Support Rupee June 25 - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised the investment limit for foreign institutional buyers in government debt by USD 5 bn to USD 20 bn. However, the additional limit can be invested only in bonds of three years and above. It also allowed sovereign wealth funds, multi-lateral agencies, foreign central banks and insurance, pension and endowment funds to buy federal bonds. RBI reduced the lock-in period of investment to three years from five for foreign investment in government bonds for up to USD10 bn, including the additional USD 5 bn. June 25 - The RBI stated manufacturing and infrastructure companies can raise money overseas via external commercial borrowings by an additional USD10 bn to meet capital expenditure and repay rupee loans. The central bank also allowed qualified foreign investors to invest in mutual fund schemes with 25 % of assets in the infrastructure sector under the current USD 3 Source: The Economist bn sub-limit. Earlier 100 % of the investment had to be in infrastructure assets. May 21 - The RBI stated net overnight rupee open position limit for Indian banks shall not include positions taken in the currency futures and options segment, thereby reducing speculative trading in the foreign exchange market. The central bank also stated positions taken in the futures and options markets Cont.… cannot be offset by undertaking positions in the over-the-counter market and vice-versa.< Research & Development Unit >
  • 25. Steps Taken by India to Support Rupee (cont…)  May 10 - RBI stated exporters must cash in 50 % of dollar holdings in their accounts within two weeks, to help ease tight supplies.  The RBI also mandated that exporters should exhaust the available dollar balance in their accounts before raising fresh funds from the markets.  May 10 - The RBI allowed intraday trading at five times the net overnight open position limit of the bank or the central bank-approved intraday limit, whichever is higher, allowing banks to take larger positions.  Earlier, traders could not exceed the overnight limit.  May 9 - The central bank eased rules for using foreign currency deposits, by allowing banks to use foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposits as collateral against loans to local residents.  May 7 - The government deferred a controversial tax proposal, which had chilled capital inflows, though foreign investors have demanded more clarity about the guidelines.  May 4 - The RBI relaxed the interest rate ceiling on FCNR deposits with maturities of 1 year to less than 3 years, to 200 basis points above the LIBOR or swap rate from 125 basis points.  On 3 to 5-year maturity FCNR deposits, the rate ceiling was relaxed to 300 basis points above LIBOR.  The central bank also allowed banks to freely determine the interest rates on export credit in foreign currency. Source: Reuters< Research & Development Unit >
  • 26. ANALYSIS & FORECAST
  • 27. Fiscal Management Snapshot Figures in Rs. Bn Budget 2012* Jan-Apr 2012 Jan-Apr 2011 Total Revenue & Grants 1,126.0 307.6 286.2 Total Revenue 1,106.0 305.5 284.9 Tax Revenue 1,006.0 276.4 249.7 Non tax Revenue 105.5 29.0 35.1 Grants 20.0 2.0 1.3 Total Expenditure 1,594.0 593.4 458.5 Recurrent 1,107.0 445.3 360.2 Interest 370.0 173.6 142.2 Salaries and Wages 367.9 112.1 108.2 Public Investment 497.5 152.4 103.9 Revenue Surplus/Deficit (-) (1.8) (139.8) (75.3) Budget Deficit (468.9) (285.7) (172.2) Revenue/GDP (%) 14.7 4.1 4.4 Current Expenditure/GDP (%) 14.7 5.9 5.6 Public Investment/GDP (%) 6.6 2.0 1.6 Revenue Surplus/Deficit (%) (0.0) (1.9) (1.2) Budget Deficit/GDP (%) (6.2) (3.8) (2.7) Source: Mid Year Fiscal Report 2012. * Estimates< Research & Development Unit >
  • 28. Foreign Financing Commitments Foreign Financing Disbursements (Jan – Apr, 2012) (Jan– Apr, 2012)  Total disbursements from January to April 2012 were US$ 625 mn. Development Amount (USD Mn)  Of the total disbursements, project loans and grants accounted Partner Loan Grant Total for USD 608 mn and USD 17 mn respectively. Bilateral 740.8 275.1 1,015.9 India 443.1 257.3 700.3 External Debt Japan 162.7 12.6 175.3  At the end of April 2012, the total outstanding Netherland 102.5 - 102.5 external debt of the Government was USD 18.9 bn1. China 32.5 - 32.5  Total debt service payment2 from January to April Other - 5.3 5.3 2012 amounted to USD 378.4 mn. Multilateral 33.0 4.9 37.9  Of this, USD 216.3 mn was for principal payments IFAD 1 22.0 - 22.0 and the balance USD 162.1 mn was for the interest payments. WB 2 11.0 0.5 11.5  The total estimated debt service payments for Other - 4.4 4.4 2012 is USD 1,630 mn3, of which 23 % has already been paid by 30th April 2012. Total 773.8 280.0 1,053.8 1 This includes outstanding only for loans obtained to finance development projects and International Source: Mid Year Fiscal Report 2012 Bond Issues 2 Debt Service Payments = Principal Payments + Interest Payments 1 International Fund for Agricultural Development 3 Includes the Debt Service Payments of International Sovereign Bond Issues. Estimates in terms of 2 World Bank, includes commitments made with International Development Association and International US$ are based on the exchange rates as at 30th April 2012 Bank for Reconstruction & Development Source: Mid Year Fiscal Report 2012< Research & Development Unit >
  • 29. Sri Lanka - Selected Economic Indicators Cont.…< Research & Development Unit >
  • 30. Sri Lanka - Selected Economic Indicators (cont…)< Research & Development Unit >
  • 31. “He who walks in another‟s tracks leaves no footprints…” Joan BrannonThe views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLCThe information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of theinformation, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise,suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.Research & Development Unit

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