Economic Capsule


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Economic capsule

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Economic Capsule

  1. 1. Research & Development Unit Research & Development Unit E c o n o m i c C a p s u l e February 2010 
  2. 2. <ul><li>Commercial Bank Moves to No:2 from No:4 in Business Today Top 10 </li></ul><ul><li>Highlights of the Banking Sector - 2009 </li></ul><ul><li>Views of HSBC Asia Economist on Sri Lanka </li></ul><ul><li>Sri Lanka to Raise USD 500mn in Dollar Bond </li></ul><ul><li> Sri Lanka Plans USD 100mn Northern Re-finance Fund </li></ul><ul><li>Q+A: Sri Lanka to Face Loss of EU's GSP+ } Reuters </li></ul><ul><li>Tourist Arrivals up 31.9% in January </li></ul><ul><li>External Sector Performance – Jan to Dec 09 </li></ul><ul><li>Inflation (CCPI) - February 2010 </li></ul>C O N T E N T S Financial Sector News Economy and Business News Economic and Financial Sector Snippets Analysis & Forecast
  3. 3. E C O N O M I C C A P S U L E Financial Sector News Back to Contents
  4. 4. Financial Sector News Commercial Bank Moves to No:2 from No:4 in Business Today Top 10 Research & Development Unit Back to Contents <ul><li>CBC has moved up by two slots to secure the Number 02 position in 2008-2009 from 2007-2008 position of Number 04 , of the Business Today Top10. </li></ul><ul><li>The elevation in position was mainly a result of an overall strong performance by CBC in its operations in both Sri Lanka as well as in Bangladesh, according to ‘Business Today’ . </li></ul>Source: 'Business Today' – February 2010 Rank 08/09 Rank 07/08 Points Name of the Corporate 01 02 8.000 Sri Lanka Telecom 02 04 6.250 Commercial Bank 03 01 5.950 John Keells Holdings 04 - 5.025 Ceylon Tobacco Company 05 - 4.650 Associated Electrical Corporation 06 03 3.900 Distilleries Company of Sri Lanka 07 06 3.750 Hatton National Bank 08 09 2.750 Aitken Spence & Company 09 10 1.900 Cargills (Ceylon) 10 08 1.650 Carson Cumberbatch 10 - 1.650 Sampath Bank
  5. 5. Financial Sector News Research & Development Unit   Highlights of the Banking Sector - 2009 Back to Contents Rs. Tn 11.5% % -3.9% Total assets of the banking sector for 2009 increased by 11.5% to reach Rs. 3 tn compared to Rs. 2.7 tn in 2008. Within the composition of assets, the share of advances reduced to 52% in 2009 from 61% in 2008 while share of investments increased from 25% in 2008 to 31% in 2009. Compared to 2008, the volume of loans and advances contracted by 3.9% to Rs. 1.57tn in 2009 . Total Assets Assets Composition Deposits crossed Rs. 2tn, in 2009 and recorded a growth of 18.5% over 2008, and this was the highest growth in the last five years. Loans & Advances Deposits Rs. Tn Rs. Tn 18.5%
  6. 6. Financial Sector News Research & Development Unit <ul><li>With the contraction in advances, the credit to deposit ratio declined significantly to 70.6% in 2009 from 87% in 2008. </li></ul><ul><li>Non Performing Loans increased by 21% (Rs. 22bn) during 2009. Gross NPL ratio and net NPL ratio increased to 8.0% and 5.0%, from 6.3% and 3.4% in 2008, respectively. </li></ul><ul><li>Banking sector profit before tax indicated a growth of 17.7% against 14.3% in 2008, this was mainly due to the reduction in provisions and low growth in operational costs. </li></ul><ul><li>Bank interest rates have declined over time. However further reductions are expected. </li></ul><ul><li>By end 2009, all banks were required to meet the Agriculture Sector Lending target of 10%. Twenty five (25) banks had complied with the target. There were 10 banks that were below the target. </li></ul><ul><li>Out of 513 banking outlets (branches + extension offices) for which approval had been granted by the CBSL, 134 banking outlets were actually opened in 2009. </li></ul>      Highlights of the Banking Sector - 2009 (cont…) Back to Contents
  7. 7. F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 0 E C O N O M I C C A P S U L E Economy and Business News Back to Contents
  8. 8. Economy and Business News Views of HSBC Asia Economist on Sri Lanka Research & Development Unit Back to Contents <ul><li>With the end of war, 30% of the land mass and 2/3 of the coastal belt automatically opens up for agriculture and fisheries and the entire nation will also greatly benefit from the renewed prospects for tourism. </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) will flow in to the country and the 7% growth rate predicted for 2010 would soon be the average annual growth rate for Sri Lanka. </li></ul><ul><li>Tourism, agriculture and construction are the key areas that would contribute towards growth in Sri Lanka. </li></ul>Post war opportunities for Sri Lanka The Senior Asian Economist, Global Research of HSBC, Robert Prior-Wandesford, in an interview with the Daily FT (15.02.10) has stated that Sri Lanka could achieve a 7% GDP growth in 2010, ranking third in the Asian region, after China and India. Following are his views on the Sri Lankan & the world economy.
  9. 9. Problem areas that needs to be solved, Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit <ul><li>Stimulus measures put in place by the Government, such as the reduction in interest rates, special lending rates for the agriculture sector and to the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) and the 12.5% of the GDP planned to be spent on “mega projects” will pave the way for economic acceleration in the future. </li></ul><ul><li>The Stand-By Loan from the IMF will add financial security and attract more investors to the country. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>  Views of HSBC Asia Economist on Sri Lanka (cont…) Back to Contents <ul><li>SL was placed at the 105 th place out of the total 183 countries studied in the, international surveys of Competitiveness and Ease of Doing Business Index, introduced by the World Bank. </li></ul><ul><li>  The World Competitiveness Index introduced at the recent World Economic Forum lists Sri Lanka at 79 out of 133 countries. These indexes clearly indicate that there is much room for improvement. </li></ul><ul><li>High level of regulatory, tax and bureaucracy constraints stands against the development in Sri Lanka. </li></ul><ul><li>The authorities must also concentrate on keeping a lid on the budget deficit. </li></ul>
  10. 10. Sri Lanka - What to Expect Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit <ul><li>According to the views of Wandesforde, inflation should come down before the end of 2010 & exchange rates are to be much firmer and more stable than in previous years. </li></ul><ul><li>The CBSL forecasts look optimistic, and add security to the system. The CCPI inflation has been projected to average 7.5% in 2010, while the CBSL forecasts inflation rates of 5% to 6%. </li></ul><ul><li>Despite these challenges, SL has the opportunity to ride on the wave of Asian growth as many economists believe that the growth of the Asian region would far outclass the growth of the developed world. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>  Views of HSBC Asia Economist on Sri Lanka (cont…) Back to Contents World Economy <ul><li>The developed world is only now emerging out of the recession, and will grow at a higher percentage in 2010 than in 2009. </li></ul><ul><li>Top economists have forecast that the GDP growth for 2010 in the developed world will be only 1.9%, while the emerging economies would have a 6% growth in the same period. However, HSBC forecasts the Asian region to grow at over 7% in 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>HSBC also forecasts that the USA would grow at 2.7% in 2010, while Europe would record a 1.7% GDP growth. The main markets in the Asian region predicted to record the highest growth in GDP are the Indian and Chinese markets, which are expected to show GDP growths of 8.5% and 9.5% respectively. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>
  11. 11. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit <ul><li>Sri Lanka is planning on a 10-year USD 500mn sovereign bond after May 2010 when funding needs become clear after the budget is passed in April, 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>Sri Lanka had sold two USD 500mn sovereign bonds in 2007 and 2009 with a 5-year maturity on each occasion. </li></ul><ul><li>According to the Central Bank governor, the funds will go towards capital expenditure and reconstruction. </li></ul>  Sri Lanka to Raise USD 500mn in Dollar Bond Back to Contents
  12. 12. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit <ul><li>Central Bank of Sri Lanka is planning a USD 100mn re-finance fund for the northern Jaffna peninsular which is seeing an economic revival after a highway to the south was opened with the end of a decades long conflict. </li></ul><ul><li>The Northern Regional Development Fund is to channel loans to businesses in the region through existing banks. </li></ul><ul><li>According to the Central Bank governor, CBSL’s northern revival loan re-finance scheme has already attracted applications for 9,000 loans valued at 1.8 bn rupees and a billion rupees has already been given through banks in the area. </li></ul><ul><li>The new fund is the result of a request made for a special development bank for the region at a forum attended by Central Bank Governor Mr. Nivard Cabraal last month in Jaffna. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul>  Sri Lanka Plans USD 100mn Northern Re-finance Fund Back to Contents
  13. 13. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit   Q+A: Sri Lanka to Face Loss of EU's GSP+  Reuters Back to Contents Q: WHAT IS THE EU GENERALISED SYSTEM OF PREFERENCES PLUS (GSP+)? A: It is a special incentive scheme for sustainable development and good governance, offering tariff cuts to support vulnerable developing countries in ratification and implementation of international conventions in these areas. WHY IS THERE A POSSIBILITY OF SRI LANKA LOSING GSP+? A: An EU probe has found Sri Lanka in breach of international human rights laws. Western diplomats say it will be very difficult for Sri Lanka to come back from losing it at this stage. WHY DOES IT MATTER FOR SRI LANKA? A: Sri Lanka is one of 16 countries with GSP+ status. Garment exports, the country's second foreign exchange earner after remittances, have benefited substantially with a 6-7 % concession, and the EU has been the main buyer. The value of the benefits has been estimated at 100mn Euros (USD 136mn). Losing GSP+ means EU buyers will have to pay more for Sri Lankan exports, thus the exporters lose price competitiveness and market share.   Q A Q A Q A
  14. 14. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit   Q+A: Sri Lanka to Face Loss of EU's GSP+  Reuters (cont…) Back to Contents IS THERE ANY WAY SRI LANKA COULD GET GSP+ RENEWED? If Sri Lanka could address the concerns of the EU in the next six months, there is a possibility.  Sri Lanka has said it is ready to engage with the EU to address the concerns raised by the bloc, asking that &quot;unattainable targets&quot; be avoided in any talks WHAT DOES LOSING GSP+ MEAN FOR THE SRI LANKAN ECONOMY? Closure of small and medium-scale garment firms and job losses, mainly among the rural poor women. Economists say there may be pressure on the USD 40 bn economy's fiscal and trade balances, if there is a significant decline in export revenue after losing the GSP+. According to the central bank, exporters will still be competitive after the loss of the scheme due to depreciation of the currency against the euro and British pound. But garment exporters say their buyers have already signalled a move away from them to lower priced garments. Q A Q A
  15. 15. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit     Tourist Arrivals up 31.9% in January Back to Contents The number of tourists visiting Sri Lanka rose sharply in January 2010 with a recovery in traditional Western European markets and more visitors from newer south Asian markets after the end of the war. Latest data from the government tourism authority showed arrivals rose 31.9 % to 50,757 in January 2010, albeit from a low base the year before.
  16. 16. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit <ul><li>The deficit in the trade account was off-set by the higher inflows of workers’ remittances. During 2009 workers’ remittances increased by 14.1 % to USD 3,330.3mn. As a result, workers’ remittances were USD 532mn (about 19 %) in excess of the trade deficit. </li></ul><ul><li>The gross official reserves were at USD 5,097mn by end December 2009, which were sufficient to finance 6.2 months of imports. </li></ul>  External Sector Performance – Jan to Dec 09 Back to Contents -12.7 -29.5 Jan to Nov, 2008 Jan to Nov, 2009 Trade Balance (USD Bn) 52.5
  17. 17. Economy and Business News Research & Development Unit   Inflation (CCPI) – February 2010 Back to Contents   Feb 10’ Jan 10’ Point to Point Change % 6.9 6.5 Annual Average Change % 3.1 3.1
  18. 18. J a n u a r y 2 0 1 0 E C O N O M I C C A P S U L E Economic & Financial Sector Snippets Back to Contents
  19. 19. Economic & Financial Sector Snippets <ul><li>Sri Lanka's Eagle Insurance, a unit of Aviva, changed its name to Aviva NDB Insurance. </li></ul><ul><li>Since February 2006, Aviva and NDB have been the main shareholders of Eagle with 51% and 41.15% holdings respectively. </li></ul>Research & Development Unit Sri Lanka Among Top Growers in 2010: Eagle Insurance Transforms into Back to Contents
  20. 20. J a n u a r y 2 0 1 0 E C O N O M I C C A P S U L E Analysis & Forecast Back to Contents
  21. 21. Analysis & Forecast Fiscal Position Research & Development Unit Back to Contents     <ul><li>Though Sri Lanka has the potential to achieve a higher GDP growth, risks are driven from the fiscal front. </li></ul><ul><li>According to CBSL the overall budget deficit is expected to reduce over the medium term and the improvement in the financial position of both the government and public corporations is expected to release resources to the private sector. </li></ul><ul><li>The growth in credit to the private sector is expected to return to positive territory by the second quarter of 2010. It is expected to increase, reaching a year-on-year growth of around 13% by end December 2010. </li></ul><ul><li>However, achieving all these targets will depend on how far the government will be able to manage fiscal policy. </li></ul><ul><li>Public investments targeting infrastructure development in ports, roads, bridges, water supply and irrigation, power generation, rural infrastructure, education and health services coupled with the sudden demand encountered to facilitate de-mining operations in the newly liberated areas in the north and post-conflict rehabilitation and resettlement expenditure have resulted in raising public investment to 6.5% of GDP in 2009. It is pertinent to note that public investment has been above 6%of GDP throughout the post 2005 period, which shows a significant policy shift from the pre 2005 period. </li></ul><ul><li>  </li></ul> 
  22. 22. Analysis & Forecast Fiscal Position (cont…) Research & Development Unit Back to Contents       2007 2008 2009 (Target) 2009 (Prov.) Revenue and Grants/GDP (%) 16.6 15.6 15.2 15.1 Revenue /GDP% 15.8 14.9 14.8 14.6 Tax/GDP (%) 14.2 13.3 13.3 12.9 Non Tax/GDP (%) 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.7 Grants/GDP (%) 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.5 Expenditure/GDP (%) 23.5 22.6 22.2 24.8 Current Expenditure/GDP (%) 17.4 16.9 16.9 18.4 Capital Expenditure/GDP (%) 6.1 5.7 5.3 6.5 Public Investment/GDP (%) 6.4 6.0 5.4 6.5 Revenue Deficit / GDP (%) (1.6) (2.0) (2.1) (3.8) Budget deficit /GDP (%) (6.9) (7.0) (7.0) (9.7) Total Foreign Financing /GDP (%) 1.8 0.3 (0.0) 1.7 Domestic Financing/ GDP (%) 5.1 6.7 7.0 8.0 Non bank Financing/GDP (%) 4.6 6.6 6.9 7.9
  23. 23. The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose. The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC Change before you have to. Jack Welch   Jack Welch is the author of Winning, a #1 Wall Street Journal and international bestseller.  In 2001, he wrote his #1 New York Times and also international best-selling autobiography, Jack:  Straight from the Gut.  From 2005 – 2009, together with his wife Suzy Welch, he wrote a widely read weekly column, The Welch Way.  This column appeared in BusinessWeek magazine and was published by the New York Times syndicate and appeared in more than 45 major newspapers around the world, reaching more than 8 million readers. He recently launched the “Jack Welch Management Institute,” a unique online MBA program aimed at giving students around the world and at every career level the tools to transform their lives and the organizations of the future. Jack is the head of Jack Welch, LLC, where he serves as Special Partner with the private equity firm, Clayton, Dubilier & Rice and is a advisor to IAC (Interactive Corp).  He speaks to business audiences and students around the world.    Born in Salem, Massachusetts, Jack received his undergraduate degree from the University of Massachusetts and an MS and PhD in chemical engineering from the University of Illinois.  He began his career with the General Electric Company in 1960, and in 1981 became the Company’s 8th Chairman & CEO.  During his 20+ year tenure as CEO, the Company's market capitalization rose from $13 billion to $400 billion.  In 2000, he was named “Manager of the Century” by Fortune magazine. Jack is the father of 4 children and has 10 grandchildren.  He is an avid Red Sox fan, is a life-long golfer, and is a fanatic about sports and business news in every medium. -