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The Collateral Conundrum: A US$11 Trillion Opportunity?

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The impending Basel III norms and margin requirements are driving up the demand for high-quality collateral.

The impending Basel III norms and margin requirements are driving up the demand for high-quality collateral.

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  • 1. The Collateral Conundrum: A US$11 Trillion Opportunity? New Basel III norms and margin requirements, along with growing risk aversion, are driving up demand for high-quality collateral. The market is appears ripe for innovative solutions that transform and optimize this new currency in today’s financial market. • Cognizant Reports cognizant reports | June 2014
  • 2. cognizant reports 2 The second paper presents a roadmap for optimizing collateral, while the third examines the crucial nature of margin requirements. The Future of Financial Markets: The Role of High-Quality Collateral Executive Summary As regulators shape the post-Lehman global financial market, high-quality collateral has emerged as the new reserve currency underpin- ning global financial markets. An environment of heightened risk aversion, plus stringent regulations to restore trust and ensure transparency, underline the need for high-quality collateral. Further driving the demand are factors such as centrally cleared, standardized derivative contracts on exchanges, central banks’ need to bol- ster their balance sheets and the new margining standards for non-centrally cleared derivatives. The cumulative demand for the forces shaping the collateral field is pegged at US$11 trillion at the higher end – even as the supply shrinks and becomes unevenly distributed. This demand- supply imbalance will make high-quality collateral costly, and incentivize custodians and large broker dealers to boost its supply. In our view, the market is ripe for innovative solu- tions for collateral transformation and optimiza- tion. Firms can look to profit from prudent and optimal use of high-quality collateral for regular trading, and garner additional securities-lending revenue by seeking higher economic rent for these assets in an otherwise low-yield environment. In this paper, the first in our three-part series on collateral management, we examine the dynamics that increase the need for collateral, and suggest best practices for overseeing it. One of the key drivers of the 2007-2009 financial market crisis involved large, insufficiently collat- eralized counterparty trade exposures. When a few major counterparties failed to settle trades on time, including those involving large exposures not backed by high-quality collateral, the trust deficit amplified – causing a systemic meltdown. In the post-Lehman world, the industry is seeking to bridge the trust deficit with trades backed by high-quality collateral. From unconventional monetary policies of central banks to a raft of regulatory interventions such as Basel III, Dodd Frank, European Market Infra- structure Regulation, to the emerging collateral highways championed by custodians, a series of factors will fundamentally alter the demand- supply scenario. In the emerging rewired financial environment, high-quality collateral will be the new currency for safeguarding against counterparty risk, meet- ing regulatory guidelines and buffering central bank balance sheets. Navigating the New Currency High-quality collateral is a money-like asset that doesn’t depreciate with risk – whether tied to credit, duration or liquidity risk. In short, it is Collateral Quality Grid Figure 1 Note: The above grid highlights select collaterals to demonstrate how haircut rates range from 0 to 40%. The exhaustive list includes numerous types of collateral, with tenor, risk, liquidity, etc., determining the haircut rate. http://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/financial-and-collateral-management/#cash Source: CME 0 10 20 30 40 Cash/USD U.S.Treasury Bills TIPS IEF2 U.S.Government Agencies Foreign SoverignDebt SelectMBS Gold IEF4 Stocks LoC IEF5 Haircut Rate %
  • 3. cognizant reports 3 cash or any other fungible financial stock that can be exchanged for cash credit immediately, with a minimal haircut. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a lead- ing derivatives trade exchange, has segmented the acceptable quality collateral universe into three broad categories: Cash is the top accepted collateral with minimal haircut, followed by the U.S. Treasury and money market funds. (See Figure 1, previous page). Last year’s margin survey by the International Swaps and Derivatives Associa- tion (ISDA) clearly identifies the use of cash and govern- ment securities as predomi- nant collateral, constituting 91.1% of collateral received and 97.1% of collateral delivered. In this equation, cash accounts for 80% of the collateral used – reflecting heightened risk aversion. While cash and government securities play a key role in collateralizing derivative trades, January 2014 statistics from the U.S. tri-party repo market show a balanced collateral demand composition where Treasury (US$571 billion), Agency securi- ties (US$637 billion) and Equities (US$150 billion) constitute 85% of the market, with cost implica- tions for highly liquid treasuries in a stabilizing market.1 Demand Drivers to Soak Up US$11 Trillion US$4.6 trillion and US$11.2 trillion under a stressed market environment over the next five years.2 (See Figure 2). The key demand drivers are: • Basel III: According to Bank for International Settlements (BIS) estimates, the liquidity cov- erage ratio provision under the new Basel III norms is expected to result in a cumulative collateral demand ranging from US$1.0 trillion to US$2.5 trillion between 2013 and 2019. • Derivative Clearing: According to ISDA and CME, from 2013 in the U.S. and from 2014 in Europe, the initial margining needs of high- quality collateral for mandatory, exchange- based clearing of standardized derivatives will require between US$0.8 and US$2.0 trillion under normal market conditions, and between US$1.8 trillion and US$4.6 trillion under stressed market conditions. In the new emerg- ing (OTC) derivatives clearing environment, variation margins will need to be posted in dif- ferent currencies. This adds to the complexity of the demand dimension. • Margin Requirements: ISDA estimates the initial margin and variation margin collateral demand for non-centrally cleared derivatives to be between US$0.8 trillion and US$1.2 trillion in normal market conditions and between US$1.8 trillion and US$4.1 trillion in a stressed market. Shrinking Collateral Supply The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that between 2007 and 2011, the high-quality collateral made available to the street (large broker dealers) to meet the market demands by commercial banks, hedge funds, money market funds and securities lending operations fell from US$10 trillion to US$6.2 trillion. According to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), the estimated cumulative incremental demand for high-quality collateral will range between US$2.6 trillion and US$5.7 trillion under normal market conditions, and between High-quality collateral is cash or any other fungible financial stock that can be exchanged for cash credit immediately, with a minimal haircut. Regulatory Interventions Driving Demand Estimates Drivers/USD tn 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Margin Requirements Normal Market Stressed Market Derivative Clearing Normal Market Stressed Market Basel III Source: TBAC Figure 2
  • 4. cognizant reports 4 According to the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC), there are other factors at play: • AAA/AA assets: The primary issue of AAA/ AA assets is estimated to be US$2 trillion annually, for at least the next five years. • No rehypothecation: While the derivatives- clearing and bilateral margining requirements spike the demand for high-quality collateral, the “no rehypothecation” rule crimps supply. This negative impact on supply is estimated to drain between US$1.2 trillion and US$2.4 trillion under normal conditions, and US$3.2 trillion and US$7.6 trillion under stressed conditions. The Demand-Supply Mismatch and Resulting Opportunities (workflow, technology and staff) to optimize and then transform collateral management practices while creating the capabilities needed for a robust regulatory reporting mechanism. In our view, firms must establish a comprehensive collateral management infrastructure to address: • The demand side of collateral management (portfolio margining). • The collateral demand-supply gap, which can be bridged by first optimizing the collateral portfolio and then transforming the firm’s col- lateral management practices. By optimizing, we mean deploying advanced analytical tools and smart collateral allocation practices that help assure that the right collateral backs the right trade, and developing the ability to dynamically alter allocations to keep in step with the changing dynamics over a trade’s life cycle. After optimizing the collateral port- folio, the collateral gap (if there is one) must be resolved by strategies for portfolio trans- formation in areas such as upgrading trades, securities lending, margin financing and other options designed to fully collateralize trade exposures. • The need for robust recordkeeping and regula- tory reporting tools, which play an important role in risk management. • The need to implement communications standards for managing complex collateral processing and settlements. A robust reference data system is critical to the margin calculation process and a source for resolving disputes. While demand for high-quality collateral can be met comfortably in benign market conditions, the situation becomes a material challenge when the market is under duress. Also, in Europe, empirical evidence shows that these assets are unevenly distributed among core and peripheral countries. This resulting imbalance has already created interesting opportunities for collateral custodians such as Euroclear and Clearstream in Europe, and tri-party repo in the U.S., to build collateral highways that address burgeoning demand and seek rent for their collateral under custody. Streamlining Collateral Management Practices This uneven demand-supply scenario will even- tually spike the price of high-quality collateral. Costly and in-demand collateral will incentivize custodians and large broker dealers to boost its supply and optimize its use. This will require them to rewire their current internal operations Footnotes 1 http://www.newyorkfed.org/banking/tpr_infr_reform_data.html. 2 http://www.treasury.gov/press-center/press-releases/Pages/jl1923.aspx. 3 ”Rehypothecation” is an alternative name for ”re-pledging.” In other words, a party that receives a pledge of collateral pledges the same collateral to a third party. In the derivatives market, rehypothecation is sometimes called “re-use.”
  • 5. World Headquarters 500 Frank W. Burr Blvd. Teaneck, NJ 07666 USA Phone: +1 201 801 0233 Fax: +1 201 801 0243 Toll Free: +1 888 937 3277 Email: inquiry@cognizant.com European Headquarters 1 Kingdom Street Paddington Central London W2 6BD Phone: +44 (0) 207 297 7600 Fax: +44 (0) 207 121 0102 Email: infouk@cognizant.com India Operations Headquarters #5/535, Old Mahabalipuram Road Okkiyam Pettai, Thoraipakkam Chennai, 600 096 India Phone: +91 (0) 44 4209 6000 Fax: +91 (0) 44 4209 6060 Email: inquiryindia@cognizant.com ­­© Copyright 2014, Cognizant. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the express written permission from Cognizant. The information contained herein is subject to change without notice. All other trademarks mentioned herein are the property of their respective owners. About Cognizant Cognizant (NASDAQ: CTSH) is a leading provider of information technology, consulting, and business process outsourcing services, dedicated to helping the world's leading companies build stronger businesses. Headquartered in Teaneck, New Jersey (U.S.), Cognizant combines a passion for client satisfaction, technology innovation, deep industry and business process expertise, and a global, collaborative workforce that embodies the future of work. With over 75 development and delivery centers worldwide and approximately 178,600 employees as of March 31, 2014, Cognizant is a member of the NASDAQ-100, the S&P 500, the Forbes Global 2000, and the Fortune 500 and is ranked among the top performing and fastest growing companies in the world. Visit us online at www.cognizant.com or follow us on Twitter: Cognizant. References • “The future of repo: ’Too Much‘ or ’Too Little?‘” Speech by Andrew Hauser, Head of Sterling Markets Division, Bank of England, and Chair of the Securities Lending and Repo Committee. • Financial Stability Paper No. 18 – October, 2012 OTC derivatives reform and collateral demand impact. • CGFS Papers No 49 Asset encumbrance, financial reform and the demand for collateral assets. • SIFMA Collateral Regulatory Outlook Collateral Conference. Gregory J. Lyons, Emilie T. Hsu. May 21, 2013. • The Changing Collateral Space. Manmohan Singh WP/13/25, IMF working paper. • ISDA Margin Survey 2013. June, 2013. • Office of Debt Management, Fiscal Year 2013 Q2 Report, Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee. • http://www.newyorkfed.org/banking/pdf/jan14_tpr_stats.pdf. Credits Author Anand Chandramouli, Director, Cognizant Research Center Subject Matter Expert Venkata Sista, Sr. Manager (Consulting) in Cognizant Business Consulting Design Harleen Bhatia, Design Team Lead Chiranjeevi Manthri, Designer