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ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
ESA 2012 talk
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ESA 2012 talk

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  • 1. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingUNKNOWN UNKNOWNS: MANAGEMENT UNDER UNCERTAINTY & ALTERNATE STABLE STATES @cboettig Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 1/33
  • 2. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Decision Resilience Theory Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 2/33
  • 3. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking 1 Introduction 2 Management model: fisheries 3 Decision Theory 4 Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 3/33
  • 4. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 4/33
  • 5. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 6. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 7. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 8. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Socio-economic model Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 9. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Socio-economic model Value function Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 10. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingBuilding blocks State Space Action (Decision) Space Ecological model (State equation) Socio-economic model Value function Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 5/33
  • 11. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 12. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size x Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 13. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size Fishing harvest intensity x Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 14. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingState space | Action space Fish stock size Fishing harvest intensity x h Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 6/33
  • 15. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingEcological model | Economic Model Stock recruitment function Xt+1 = Zn f (Xn ) Beverton-Holt Ax f (x) = 1 + Bx Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 7/33
  • 16. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingEcological model | Economic Model Profit equation Stock recruitment function π(x, h) = p min(x, h) Xt+1 = Zn f (Xn ) h h − c0 + c1 Beverton-Holt x x Ax f (x) = p price of fish 1 + Bx c0 , c1 costs Bellman’s Value function Vt = max Th Vt+1 + π(xt , ht )e−δ(T −t) (1) h Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 7/33
  • 17. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 8/33
  • 18. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 9/33
  • 19. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 10/33
  • 20. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 11/33
  • 21. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 12/33
  • 22. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 13/33
  • 23. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Decision Resilience Theory Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 14/33
  • 24. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingWhat could go wrong? Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 15/33
  • 25. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingWhat could go wrong? f (x) has some stuctural uncertainty Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 15/33
  • 26. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingWhat could go wrong? Policy makers don’t listen to mathematically optimal strategies f (x) has some stuctural uncertainty Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 15/33
  • 27. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingResilience thinking approaches Early warning signals of tipping points Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 16/33
  • 28. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingResilience thinking approaches Early warning signals of Considering key tipping points stakeholders Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 16/33
  • 29. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingAbandon decision theoretic approaches? Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 17/33
  • 30. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingAbandon decision theoretic approaches? No! Synthesize resilience concepts with decision theories. . . Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 17/33
  • 31. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingSometimes hard to identify the “increase” signal Carpenter et al. 2011 Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 18/33
  • 32. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingDecision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities Boettiger & Hastings 2012 Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 19/33
  • 33. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingDecision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 20/33
  • 34. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingDecision theory needs probabilities, not possibilities Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 21/33
  • 35. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingPolicy Costs Policy makers don’t listen to mathematically optimal strategies? Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 22/33
  • 36. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Socio-economic optimum strategy Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 23/33
  • 37. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Socio-economic optimum strategy Reality: typical policy Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 23/33
  • 38. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingThere is a cost to changing policy we can model that. . . Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 24/33
  • 39. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingAdding costs to changing policy ΠL1 (xt , ht , ht−1 ) = Π0 + c2 abs (ht − ht−1 ) (2) 2 ΠL2 (xt , ht , ht−1 ) = Π0 + c2 (ht − ht−1 ) (3) Πfixed (xt , ht , ht−1 ) = Π0 + c2 I(ht , ht−1 ) (4) Πasym (xt , ht , ht−1 ) = Π0 + c2 max (ht − ht−1 , 0) (5) Where I(a, b) = 0 for a = b and I(a, b) = 1 for a = b. Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 25/33
  • 40. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingPrevious Action becomes part of state-space s Action Previou Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 26/33
  • 41. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Cost-free optimum Optimum under policy costs Cost-free stock Stock under policy costs Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 27/33
  • 42. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Cost-free optimum Optimum under policy costs Cost-free stock Stock under policy costs Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 27/33
  • 43. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Cost-free optimum Optimum under policy costs Cost-free stock Stock under policy costs Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 28/33
  • 44. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Cost-free optimum Optimum under policy costs Cost-free stock Stock under policy costs Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 28/33
  • 45. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 29/33
  • 46. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 30/33
  • 47. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience Thinking Ignoring political realities leads to worse solutions Reducing policy costs results in better management Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 31/33
  • 48. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingConclusions Decision theory provides a quantitative way to address policy choices under uncertainty Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
  • 49. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingConclusions Decision theory provides a quantitative way to address policy choices under uncertainty But: traditional framework ignores key possibilities that aren’t probabilities Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
  • 50. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingConclusions Decision theory provides a quantitative way to address policy choices under uncertainty But: traditional framework ignores key possibilities that aren’t probabilities Modeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, and identify when they matter most Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
  • 51. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingConclusions Decision theory provides a quantitative way to address policy choices under uncertainty But: traditional framework ignores key possibilities that aren’t probabilities Modeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, and identify when they matter most More synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory is needed! Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
  • 52. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingConclusions Decision theory provides a quantitative way to address policy choices under uncertainty But: traditional framework ignores key possibilities that aren’t probabilities Modeling approaches can sometimes quantify these, and identify when they matter most More synthesis of resilience thinking and decision theory is needed! Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 32/33
  • 53. Introduction Management model: fisheries Decision Theory Resilience ThinkingAcknowledgements Image credits NOAA Millennium Ecosystem Assessment flickr users gfpeck, saneboy, tranchis Boettiger et al 2012 Scheffer et al. 2001 Code, lab notebook, and more: http://carlboettiger.info/ Carl Boettiger, UC Davis cboettig@ucdavis.edu Management under uncertainty 33/33

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