How to assess the business opportunity and commercial viability of a scientific project or early-stage technology? How to attract significant specialized investment?
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Business Viability of a Lifescience Early-Stage Project
1. INSTITUTO DE SALUD CARLOS III
SPANISH CELL THERAPY NETWORK
December 14th, 2012
Business viability of a scientific project
Solving the specific challenges of biotech & medtech products in order to attract investors.
2. Credentials
10 years PHARMA, BIOTECH & MEDTECH.
2 years VENTURE CAPITAL “EARLY STAGE”.
5 years USA, GERMANY, UK.
>30 INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES ANALYZED
3 NEW THERAPIES LAUNCHED GLOBALLY.
$300 mn INTERNATIONAL LICENSING AGREEMENTS.
€30 mn VENTURE CAPITAL RAISED.
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9. 1. What
Patient
Physician
What will How will you
you sale? sale it?
Hospital
Payor
Clear product /
Clear revenue model
service definition
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10. 2. Relevant
Patient type/s
Market Big enough?
• Patient Needs
• Doc
Customers • Hospital Severe enough?
• Payor
Current
Better enough?
competition
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11. 3. Unique
Same
technology
Product Better enough? Needs
S&W
Future Time to Early enough?
competition market
Organization Capable enough?
Other
S&W
technologies
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12. 4. Protectable
Able to be copied
Is it Know-how Undisclosed
Protect
Patentable? Clock stopped
Enough Patent Protected
License / sell Patent/s Diclosed
life?
Clock starts ticking
“As late as possible, but as soon as
necessary…”
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13. 5. Achievable
What have you Risks and What must you
proved? barriers prove?
Target
Validation Route Map Product
Profile
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14. 5. Achievable
Risks and barriers
Potential buyers
EXTERNAL
Deal value
Deal timing (when)
Freedom To Operate
What have you Scientific assessment What must you
proved? prove?
Pre-clinical development
Clinical development
INTERNAL
Regulatory
CMC
Supply Chain
Price, reimbursement, access
Market adoption
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15. 5. Achievable
How solid is what you
proved?
Probability of success?
”Licensable”?
What have you What must you
proved? TEAM prove?
Reasonable timing?
Reasonable investment?
Risk mitigation?
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16. 6. Profitable
Commercial • Target Product Profile
• Environment
scenarios
• Probabilized
Profitable enough? 5-10x
Cash flows • For each scenario Early enough? 3-6 yrs
Likely enough? Higher than
average.
• Probabilized nodes
Decision tree through the Route
map.
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17. 6. Profitable
Example: Decision Tree
Valuation was
poor:
3x
9 yrs to exit
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