2. ● On August 12th, the USDA increased its
estimate of the 2004-2005 U.S. ending
stocks from 494 to 578 million bushels, up
from 546 million bushels in the previous
year.
● Production in the new season is expected to
total 2.12 billion bushels with total use of
2.15 billion bushels. The resulting ending
stocks to use ratio is 27%, the most in three
years.
3. ● Worldwide, the USDA is expecting 2004-2005
ending stocks to increase from 132 to 142
million tons, or 24% of annual use. 609 million
tons of world production is expected to cover
599 million tons of total use. The USDA expects
2004-2005 exports to drop 18%, but so far they
are up 7%.
4. ● Overall, wheat is a chronic bear market and (I
don't like to say it, but) wheat farming has a
bleak future. Wheat (like sugar) is grown on
every continent, but Antarctica.
● Farm productivity continues to increase, but
consumption is not growing. If not for
occasional weather problems, wheat prices
would trend endlessly lower.
5. ● On October 3, 2003, the U.S. Department of
Commerce said that they will allow a 14%
import tariff on hard red spring wheat that
comes from Canada, but not on durum wheat.
As of August 15th, 66% of the spring wheat
crop was rated good to excellent, up from 53%
a year ago.
6. ● "I really think this crop is getting hammered out
there even beyond what people are thinking,"
said Meteorlogix forecaster Mike Palmerino.
Reuters. May 19, 2004.
7. Wheat production table
2003 - 2004
Production Est.
MMT % of World
Euro 91 16%
China 86 16%
India 69 12%
World 552 100%
8. ● More info about commodity trading at
Commoditytradingmanual.com
● More news from commodity markets can be
found at Finzine.com
