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Challenges For The Local Economy
 

Challenges For The Local Economy

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Presentation from Tony Mernagh, from the Brighton & Hove Business Forum, at the annual State of the City Event in Brighton & Hove, hosted and run by the Brighton & Hove Chamber of Commerce.

Presentation from Tony Mernagh, from the Brighton & Hove Business Forum, at the annual State of the City Event in Brighton & Hove, hosted and run by the Brighton & Hove Chamber of Commerce.

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  • 2009 was a good year for foreign visitors. Anecdotal evidence suggests that June to August were particularly good.The pound has lost 20% of its value over the past 14 months which should make us an attractive proposition. Hotels, restaurants and retail should be able to capitalise on this and this might compensate to a certain extent for the loss of domestic customers for retailers.Language schools should also do well.
  • There have already been some big casualties and we are unlikely to see any more big high street names go under in Brighton [to an extend this is because we have fewer high street names than other comparable towns]. Also, to an extent, those that survived picked up trade from those that died.
  • ..... average earnings growth has been slowing for the last four years. Low interest rates [and consequently mortgage rates] have offset this to an extent but household indebtedness in the UK is now the highest in the world and we should prepare for a contraction in UK consumer spending as people try to pay down debt. This will impact on retail sales. The independent sector has actually performed very well throughout 2009 but it is vulnerable to declining consumption.
  • About 41,000 people work in this sector and, although no one yet knows exactly how much public spending will be cut the Institute for Fiscal Studies has forecast that all departments will have to cut expenditure by 11% to address UK debt.If education and health are to be protected this might increase to 15%
  • Government grant to B&H Council will be cut by £45m and, although savings have already been identified there is a further £13m to be identified over the next three years.
  • About 42,000 people work in this sector.But it is not the high-flying city-dealer type of business. It is more likely to be a call centre. It is a bit of a mixed picture with Lloyds TSB announcing about 500 job losses [although the final figure may be less] but Domestic & General recruiting an additional 250.We should anticipate more job losses and take advantage of SEEDA/Job Centre Plus rapid reaction programme to help people seek alternative employment
  • About 15,000 employees so quite small and they seem to have weathered the recession well. Some sectors e.g. E-learning have thrived as companies reduce their training budgets by cutting face-to-face training and replacing it with online learning which is cheaper. Largely due to the cycle of new hardware development (i.e the recession arrived in the middle of the four year cycle of new consoles development), the gaming industry has also held up well.

Challenges For The Local Economy Challenges For The Local Economy Presentation Transcript

  • State of the City: 2010
    Challenges for the local economy
    22.06.10
  • I agree with Dave... for the moment!
  • UK Government debt
    £1.4 trillion
    £bn
    Year
  • Popularity and sex!
    Population
    Manchester, Leeds, Bristol
    +3,600
    253,800
    2,600
    +3,300
    2007/08 source ONS
  • The Workforce
    142,800
    economically active people
  • Local economy
    About a fifth
    About a third
    1,600
    About a third
    About a tenth
  • Hospitality [hotels, restaurants, retail]
    30,000
  • Tourism could prosper in 2010
    £/Euro minus
    27%
    100,000 Foreign students
  • Retail Casualties
  • Retail sales - %age change on previous year
  • Average earnings – slowing down
    % change
    Year
  • Housing recovery – how long?
    Year – blue line
    Price at recession start = 100
    Year – red line
  • VAT
    20%from Jan 2011
  • Public Sector
    41,000
    25% cut over 4 years
  • Council finances
    £45m cut over 3 years
    £8m 2011/12; savings gap
    £5m 2012/13; savings gap
  • Business & financial services
    42,000
  • Creative Industries
    15,000
  • Gaming is big business
    4.7m copies
    £186m
    “Brighton has the potential to compete on a global scale with the world’s key gaming centres like Tokyo and Montreal” Editor. Develop Magazine
    $55bn
    by 2012
  • The next, next big thing?
  • E learning
  • Barrier to growth - dated office stock
    International House. Conway Street. Hove
  • Shelved, delayed or stalled
    ?
    Ice Arena. Black Rock
    Inner Harbour. Marina
    Brighton Eye 360. West Pier
    Outer Harbour. Marina
  • Refurbishment
    New England House. New England St
    Queensbury House. Queens Rd
  • American Express
    335,000 sq feet / 31,000 sq metres
  • Land... they’re not making it any more
    Top 10 sites = 150 hectares
    Olympic site - 200 hectares
  • Earnings/worker [£/week : median]
    SE
    SE
    UK
  • Productivity/head
    £
  • Current unemployment
    B&H 3.9%
    UK 3.9%
    6,800
    27,910
    SE 2.8%
    ES 3.4%
    WS 2.7%
    Source NOMIS: May 2010
  • To put that into perspective
  • More jobs needed
    8,000
    16,000
  • Good news....... private sector jobs
    20,100
    between 1998 and 2008
    Source: Centre for Cities
  • Housing costs Q1. 2010
    £182,700 in 2007
    £168,000
    £38,776 salary
    £53,400 in 2007
    £42,000
  • Degree level
    Workforce Skills
    21%
    UK 29%
    SE 31%
    35%
    34%
    36%
    28%
    41%
  • Transport
  • and the Future . . . . .
    The 4 elements of GDP
    Consumer spending
    Government Spending
    Investment
    Net exports
  • The End
    .......but I hope not literally!
  • Site complications
  • NVQ 2+
    UK 64.5%
    SE 68%
    75%
    76%
    73%
    65%
    73%
    45%
  • Office space
    468,000 m2
    149 Preston Rd
    Anston House
    Telecom House
    Montefiore Hse
    153 Preston Rd
    International Hse