1. Pronostico
Mes Día # Dias Demanda Pronóstico Transformada
Data Real Valor Minimo
(m) (d) (w) (D) (DE) (X)
(DE-VM)
1 6 22 3 $7,535.00 $59,067.69 $8,091.69 $58,511.00 $50,976.00
2 6 23 4 1,868.00 64,160.76 13,184.76 52,844.00 50976
3 6 24 5 31,021.00 95,648.02 44,672.02 81,997.00 50976
4 6 27 1 (1,700.00) 41,581.06 (9,394.94) 49,276.00 50976
5 6 28 2 (28,823.00) 32,062.21 (18,913.79) 22,153.00 50976
6 6 29 3 17,311.00 75,476.59 24,500.59 68,287.00 50976
7 6 30 4 50,114.00 108,413.06 57,437.06 101,090.00 50976
8 7 1 5 (11,118.00) 56,621.85 5,645.85 39,858.00 50976
9 7 5 2 (41,676.00) 18,534.22 (32,441.78) 9,300.00 50976
10 7 6 3 (24,021.00) 23,430.60 (27,545.40) 26,955.00 50976
11 7 7 4 6,522.00 63,073.49 12,097.49 57,498.00 50976
12 7 8 5 18,644.00 81,385.58 30,409.58 69,620.00 50976
13 7 11 1 (30,785.00) 33,194.18 (17,781.82) 20,191.00 50976
14 7 12 2 (7,045.00) 40,834.98 (10,141.02) 43,931.00 50976
15 7 13 3 (8,442.00) 36,972.63 (14,003.37) 42,534.00 50976
16 7 14 4 31,884.00 90,894.80 39,918.80 82,860.00 50976
17 7 15 5 70,060.00 104,019.02 53,043.02 121,036.00 50976
18 7 19 2 1,572.00 42,057.55 (8,918.45) 52,548.00 50976
19 7 20 3 (27,114.00) 20,742.02 (30,233.98) 23,862.00 50976
20 7 21 4 (50,976.00) - (50,976.00) - 50976
21 7 22 5 12,722.00 78,644.07 27,668.07 63,698.00 50976
22 7 26 2 (26,865.00) 31,630.36 (19,345.64) 24,111.00 50976
23 7 28 4 5,918.00 43,356.03 (7,619.97) 56,894.00 50976
24 7 29 5 62,289.00 100,491.24 49,515.24 113,265.00 50976
25 8 1 1 (3,848.00) 27,068.50 (23,907.50) 47,128.00 50976
26 8 2 2 (32,687.00) 12,092.85 (38,883.15) 18,289.00 50976
27 8 3 3 8,467.00 52,355.91 1,379.91 59,443.00 50976
28 8 4 4 20,029.00 78,923.07 27,947.07 71,005.00 50976
29 8 5 5 (3,471.00) 41,405.49 (9,570.51) 47,505.00 50976
30 8 8 1 (7,461.00) 38,906.99 (12,069.01) 43,515.00 50976
31 8 9 2 (3,105.00) 31,652.72 (19,323.28) 47,871.00 50976
32 8 10 3 9,600.00 53,353.83 2,377.83 60,576.00 50976
33 8 11 4 26,636.00 54,354.71 3,378.71 77,612.00 50976
34 8 12 5 30,247.00 91,225.47 40,249.47 81,223.00 50976
35 8 15 1 (27,414.00) 49,727.08 (1,248.92) 23,562.00 50976
36 8 16 2 (20,286.00) 20,292.49 (30,683.51) 30,690.00 50976
37 8 17 3 (4,223.00) 41,178.88 (9,797.12) 46,753.00 50976
38 8 18 4 16,175.00 74,639.29 23,663.29 67,151.00 50976
39 8 19 5 25,377.00 93,956.68 42,980.68 76,353.00 50976
40 8 22 1 (9,199.00) 37,596.39 (13,379.61) 41,777.00 50976
41 8 23 2 (9,721.00) 31,109.54 (19,866.46) 41,255.00 50976
42 8 24 3 (26,017.00) 47,102.09 (3,873.91) 24,959.00 50976
43 8 25 4 (5,403.00) 50,655.04 (320.96) 45,573.00 50976
44 8 26 5 21,856.00 70,662.31 19,686.31 72,832.00 50976
45 8 29 1 (22,987.00) 48,040.60 (2,935.40) 27,989.00 50976
46 8 30 2 6,934.00 52,566.09 1,590.09 57,910.00 50976
47 8 31 3 781.00 45,586.28 (5,389.72) 51,757.00 50976
48 9 1 4 (19,896.00) 26,893.62 (24,082.38) 31,080.00 50976
(DDP) $ 51,585.9792 Promedio $ (781.48)
DesvStd 11570.12
Z= (0.4679)
0
0.06 Error Promedio
$ (781.48)

2. $ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
Error² Iw Im Id $ (781.48)
1 ### 6 120.23% 1 76.29% $ (781.48)
2 ### 7 96.72% 2 35.45% $ (781.48)
3 ### 8 98.00% 3 115.23% $ (781.48)
4 ### 9 60.25% 4 137.64% $ (781.48)
5 ### 5 55.06% $ (781.48)
6 52.25% $ (781.48)
7 111.46% $ (781.48)
8 109.66% $ (781.48)
9 92.80% $ (781.48)
10 117.43% $ (781.48)
11 94.80% $ (781.48)
12 121.31% $ (781.48)
13 82.45% $ (781.48)
14 160.63% $ (781.48)
15 140.15% $ (781.48)
16 59.49% $ (781.48)
17 90.63% $ (781.48)
18 130.17% $ (781.48)
19 124.94% $ (781.48)
20 46.26% $ (781.48)
21 0.00% $ (781.48)
22 105.96% $ (781.48)
23 91.21% $ (781.48)
24 103.67% $ (781.48)
25 88.34% $ (781.48)
26 93.96% $ (781.48)
27 95.52% $ (781.48)
28 76.62% $ (781.48)
29 135.40% $ (781.48)
30 154.11% $ (781.48)
31 100.33% $ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)
$ (781.48)

3. Z
Error (Ei+1 - E) (Ei+1 - E)^2 1/n-1
Calculada
(Di-Pi)
-556.69 $ 0.02 (10,760.07) 115,779,014.28 0.02
-11316.76 $ (0.91) (2,334.27) 5,448,793.47
-13651.02 $ (1.11) 21,345.97 455,650,235.53
7694.94 $ 0.73 (17,604.15) 309,906,048.92
-9909.21 $ (0.79) 2,719.62 7,396,336.63
-7189.59 $ (0.55) (133.48) 17,815.66
-7323.06 $ (0.57) (9,440.79) 89,128,461.57
-16763.85 $ (1.38) 7,529.63 56,695,392.29
-9234.22 $ (0.73) 12,758.61 162,782,224.07
3524.4 $ 0.37 (9,099.88) 82,807,887.65
-5575.49 $ (0.41) (6,190.09) 38,317,222.76
-11765.58 $ (0.95) (1,237.60) 1,531,652.98
-13003.18 $ (1.06) 16,099.19 259,184,017.63
3096.02 $ 0.34 2,465.35 6,077,970.03
5561.37 $ 0.55 (13,596.17) 184,855,777.23
-8034.8 $ (0.63) 25,051.78 627,591,632.22
17016.98 $ 1.54 (6,526.53) 42,595,573.90
10490.45 $ 0.97 (7,370.47) 54,323,812.09
3119.98 $ 0.34 (3,119.98) 9,734,304.87
0 $ 0.07 (14,946.07) 223,384,982.38
-14946.07 $ (1.22) 7,426.71 55,156,045.45
-7519.36 $ (0.58) 21,057.33 443,411,113.78
13537.97 $ 1.24 (764.21) 584,023.32
12773.76 $ 1.17 7,285.74 53,082,010.83
20059.5 $ 1.80 (13,863.34) 192,192,297.21
6196.15 $ 0.60 890.93 793,759.85
7087.09 $ 0.68 (15,005.15) 225,154,564.51
-7918.07 $ (0.62) 14,017.57 196,492,370.65
6099.51 $ 0.59 (1,491.50) 2,224,563.20
4608.01 $ 0.47 11,610.27 134,798,296.49
16218.28 $ 1.47 (8,996.11) 80,930,003.07
7222.17 $ 0.69 16,035.12 257,125,100.35
23257.29 $ 2.08 (33,259.76) 1,106,211,625.46
-10002.47 $ (0.80) (16,162.60) 261,229,791.28
-26165.08 $ (2.19) 36,562.58 1,336,822,316.65
10397.51 $ 0.97 (4,823.38) 23,265,023.36
5574.12 $ 0.55 (13,062.41) 170,626,594.42
-7488.29 $ (0.58) (10,115.39) 102,321,145.02
-17603.68 $ (1.45) 21,784.29 474,555,322.09
4180.61 $ 0.43 5,964.85 35,579,454.04
10145.46 $ 0.94 (32,288.55) 1,042,550,575.67
-22143.09 $ (1.85) 17,061.05 291,079,570.83
-5082.04 $ (0.37) 7,251.73 52,587,522.20
2169.69 $ 0.26 (22,221.29) 493,785,524.97
-20051.6 $ (1.67) 25,395.50 644,931,654.99
5343.91 $ 0.53 826.82 683,623.11
6170.72 $ 0.60 (1,984.35) 3,937,633.36
4186.38 $ 0.43
Sumatoria 10,415,320,682.34
d(t)^2 [1/n-1] ( Sum Ei +1 - Ei)^2 221,602,567.71
s(t)^2 (DesvStd)^2 133867445.41
Desviacion Std K(t) d(t)^2/(s(t)^2 1.66
$ 11,570.12

4. $ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12
$ 11,570.12

5. Z Calculada Z de Menor a Mayor Calculos Z
0.02 -2.19 1)
-0.91 -1.85 z = -3.5 = .000233
-1.11 -1.67 z = -1.0 = .158655
0.73 -1.45 (.158655 - .00233) * 48
-0.79 -1.38 Freq = 7.60
-0.55 -1.22
-0.57 -1.11 2)
-1.38 -1.06 z = -1.0 = .158655
-0.73 -0.95 z = -0.5 = .308538
0.37 -0.91 (.308538 - .158655) * 48
-0.41 -0.8 Freq = 7.19438
-0.95 -0.79
-1.06 -0.73 3)
0.34 -0.63 z = 0 = .5000
0.55 -0.62 z = -0.5 = .308538
-0.63 -0.58 (.500 - .308538) * 48
1.54 -0.58 Freq = 9.19
0.97 -0.57
0.34 -0.55 4)
0.07 -0.41 z = 0 = .5000
-1.22 -0.37 z = 0.5 = .691462
-0.58 0.02 (.691462 - .5000) * 48
1.24 0.07 Freq = 9.19
1.17 0.26
1.8 0.34 5)
0.6 0.34 z = 0.5 = .691462
0.68 0.37 z = 1.0 = .841345
-0.62 0.43 (.841345 - .691462) * 48
0.59 0.43 Freq = 7.19
0.47 0.47
1.47 0.53 6)
0.69 0.55 z = 1.0 = .841345
2.08 0.55 z = 3.5 =.999767
-0.8 0.59 (.999767 - .841345) * 48
-2.19 0.6 Freq = 7.60
0.97 0.6
0.55 0.68
-0.58 0.69
-1.45 0.73
0.43 0.94
0.94 0.97
-1.85 0.97
-0.37 1.17
0.26 1.24
-1.67 1.47
0.53 1.54
0.6 1.8
0.43 2.08

6. Intervalo Frrecuencia Esperada (E) Frecuencia Observada (O) (O-E)^2 / E
(-3.5 to -1.0) 7.6 8 0.02
(-1.0 to -0.5) 7.19 11 2.02
(-0.5 to 0) 9.19 2 5.63
(0 to 0.5) 9.19 9 0
(0.5 to 1.0) 7.19 12 3.22
(1.0 to 3.5) 7.6 6 0.34
Ʃ (O-E)^2 / E 11.22