The document analyzes scenarios for an APC "knockout" victory in the 2015 Nigerian presidential election. It projects that in Scenario 1, if APC increases its vote share in controlled states while holding PDP states constant, it will win a majority of votes in 28 of 36 states. Scenario 2 and 3 victories are predicted to occur earlier. General Buhari is assessed to appeal to over 50% of northern voters. A Buhari/Fashola ticket is projected to have a higher "win window index" than the incumbent PDP ticket. For a landslide, APC would need to boost turnout in controlled states to over 57% of the total vote. The analysis aims to provide

1. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance

2. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
2015 Presidential Elections Preambles
This piece is a continuation of our assessment of the possible scenarios to the run-up to the 2015
Presidential Elections.
As inferences from the “Political Ring” has made us to notice the peculiar position of the APC in
winning the 2015 Elections and so in the course of these evaluations, our analysis will attempt to
“mirror” these window of opportunities in terms of the “Knockout Chance” for the APC which may
occur within the stipulated rounds of “Naija Politikimania 2015”.
APC KnockOut Chance Evaluation
In assessing the “Knockout Chance”, the increasing influence of “APC” in the 14 Controlled States from
the 2011 Election level and the support for the “Hypothetical APC” in the currently controlled States of
the PDP will be used as a basis to establish the “Knockout Scenario’s.
In order to predict the seemingly possible APC’s “Knockout” Scenarios, the under listed assumptions
will form the basis of our evaluation.
i. Reduce the percentage of Projected Votes Won by PDP in the 2011 Presidential, in the currently
APC Controlled States, while increasing that of APC by the same margin,
ii. The percentage of Projected Presidential Votes from the following PDP States of Bauchi, Gombe,
Jigawa,Kaduna,Katsina,Kebbi and Niger , that voted overwhelmingly for the “Hypothetical APC”
in the 2011 Presidential Election will remain the same,
iii. The 2011 Population of Electorates is assumed to remain constant,
iv. The 2011 Electorate turn-out of 51.95% is assumed to be constant, while the electorates not casting
their votes remains the same as in the 2011 Elections (48.05%),
v. That the Swing States of Ondo and Anambra are in Alliance with the PDP for the Presidential
Election,
vi. Applying section 134 (1) of Nigeria’s 1999 Constitution, to determine the likely winner,
vii. That the emergency rule in the 3 North-East States will not have an effect on the turn-out as in the
2011 Elections, and
viii. The Votes from APGA Controlled State(s) not included in the Cumulative votes won in the 2011
Presidential Election by the “Hypothetical APC”.
In Predicting APC’s Knockout Chance; the Scenario_1 Knockout is projected to come late in the
“Political Bout” , while Scenario_2 Knockout and Scenarion_3 Knockout are expected to come far
earlier in the stipulated rounds of the “Political Bout” as APC gains more electorate votes from the
currently controlled States .
APC Knockout Chance Scenario-1 Projections
To simulate the likely outcome for APC Scenario-1 Knockout the Percentage of votes won by the PDP
candidate in the 2011 Elections in eight (8) PDP States that gave Majority votes to the “Hypothetical
APC” were left constant , while the votes for APC in the currently Controlled 14 APC States were
increased as illustrated below.

3. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
Projected APC Knockout Chance Scenario-1 Outcome:
The outcome of the projected APC Knockout Chance for Scenario-1 indicates, APC will likely win by
Majority of the Votes, while meeting the two-third of 25% of the casted votes in 28 out of the 36 States
and the FCT as depicted below.
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
Borno
Edo
Imo
Kano
Kwara
Lagos
Ogun
Osun
Oyo
Nassarawa
Rivers
Sokoto
Yobe
Zamfara
Abia
Adamawa
Akwa-Ibom
Bauchi
Bayelsa
Benue
CrossRiver
Delta
Ebonyi
Ekiti
Enugu
Gombe
Jigawa
Kaduna
Katsina
Kebbi
Kogi
Niger
Plateau
FCT
Taraba
Anambra
Ondo
APC States PDP And Swing States LP &
APGA
Projected APC 2015 Presidential Election "Knock-Out" Chance Scenario-1
(APC Votes Assessment)
% of Presidential Votes won by "Hypothetical APC" in 2011
Projected % of Presidential Vote to be Casted for APC in 2015
75.68%
78.38%19,291,520
18,416,813
17,800,000
18,000,000
18,200,000
18,400,000
18,600,000
18,800,000
19,000,000
19,200,000
19,400,000
74.00%
74.50%
75.00%
75.50%
76.00%
76.50%
77.00%
77.50%
78.00%
78.50%
79.00%
APC (nPDP+ACN+ANPP+CPC) PDP + Swing States
Projected APC 2015 Presidential Election "KnockOut" Chance Scenario-1 Analysis
Using the 2011 Presidential Election Data
Projected 25% of Casted Votes won by the party per State out of the 36 States and FCT (nos)
Scenario_1 Projected Presidential Votes Won
Source: INEC 2011 Presidential Election Results
Authors Analysis

4. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
This Scenario clearly puts the “Winning Ace” on “APC’s Ringside” as the indices shows that it only needs
to increase the level of Geo-Political Support from the SW, NE and NW with little support votes from
the SS and SE to guarantee Victory as illustrated in the Chart below.
APC’s “PDP Knockout punch” advantage is further amplified by its majority share of registered and
voting electorates in both the APC Controlled States and the eight (8) PDP States that gave majority
votes to the “Hypothetical APC” in the 2011 Presidential Election; with APC controlling about 67.74% as
against 32.26% for the PDP with reference to the national total.
Party Support Base
Share of
Electorates
in 2011
Share of
Registered
Electorates in
Nigeria (2011)
APC States Plus PDP States that Supported the "Hypothetical APC" in 2011 49,805,169 67.74%
PDP States that Gave Majority Votes to the PDP Plus the Swing States 23,722,871 32.26%
While the share for electorates not exercising their voting right in the APC controlled States and the
Northern PDP States were also greater; with 65.08% of the national total.
Party Support Base
Share of Registered Electorates not
exercising their right to Vote in 2011
Presidential Elections
Share of Registered Electorates
not exercising their right to vote
in Nigeria (2011)
APC States Plus PDP States that
Supported the "Hypothetical APC" in
2011 24,858,572 65.08%
PDP States that Gave Majority Votes
to the PDP Plus the Swing States 13,340,647 34.92%
64.66%
18.81%
24.96%
43.13%
68.51% 68.72%
34.44%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
South-West South-East South-South North-Central North-East North-West FCT
Projected APC "Knock" Chance
2015 Geo-Regional Support Assessment
Projected % of Geo-Regional Presidential Vote for APC Projected % of Geo-Regional Presidential Vote for PDP
Source: INEC 2011 Presidential Election Results
Authors Analysis

5. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
APC’s right candidate mix to the “Political Bout” will also help to add a greater impetus to the
“Knockout Punch” as the “Win Window Index” as illustrated below; indicates that an APC Candidate
Mix_1 of Buhari from the North-West Region as President and Babatunde Fashola as Vice –President
from the South-West will post a higher Index of 58.89 weighted percentage points than the PDP
Consensus Candidate of Goodluck Jonathan from the South-South and Namadi Sambo from the North-
West with a weighted percentage points of 41.11.
While the APC Candidate Mix_2 of Buhari from the North-West Region as President and Comrade
Adams Oshiomole as Vice –President from the South-South will post a 50% weighted percentage points.
Criteria
PDP Consesus Candidate
(GEJ/Sambo Ticket)
APC Flagbearer Mix_1
(Buhari/Fashola Ticket)
Share of Registered Electorates in Nigeria (2011) 22.61 27.39
Share of Registered Electorates not exercising their
right to vote in Nigeria (2011) 18.50 31.50
Party Votes Won in 2011 0.00 0.00
41.11 58.89
It should be noted that the noticeable difference for the APC Flag Bearer Mix Scenarios based on “Mix_1
Candidacy” as against “Mix_2 Candidacy” is the Share of Registered Electorates and Share of
Registered Electorates not voting from the South-West versus that of the South-South.
41.11
58.89
50.00
50.00
PDP Consesus Candidate (GEJ/Sambo Ticket)
APC Flagbearer Mix_1 (Buhari/Fashola Ticket)
PDP Consesus Candidate (GEJ/Sambo Ticket)
APC Flagbearer Mix_2 (Buhari/Oshiomole Ticket)
Candidacy
Cambination_1(withou
tconsidering2011
Presidentialvotes
won)
Candidacy
Cambination_2
(withoutconsidering
2011Presidentialvotes
won)
PROJECTED 2015 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
CANDIDACY "WIN WINDOW INDEX" RATING
(USING 2011 ELECTION DATA)
Source: INEC 2011 Presidential Election Results
Authors Analysis

6. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
General Muhammadu Buhari (GMB), “Voters Appeal Index” potential should also be a rallying point
for the “APC Ringside” as he won over 50% of the casted votes from the North in the 2011 Presidential
Election as depicted hereunder.
This implies that GMB’s Candidacy for the 2015 Presidential Election, will be able to rally the very
important votes from the three (3) Geo-Political Zones in the North; while a South-West or South-South
VP Candidacy of either Fashola or Oshiomole will be able to deliver the “ Killer Punch” votes to ensure
a “Knockout” Victory for the APC .
53.69%
38.35%
0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 40.00% 50.00% 60.00%
Projected % of Geo-Regional Votes won in 2011 by
GMB
Projected % of Geo-Regional Votes won in 2011 by
GEJ
GMB Voters Appeal Index
(Using 2011 Presidential Election Data)
North (excluding FCT)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
80.00%
90.00%
100.00%
South-West South-East South-South North-Central North-East North-West FCT
GMB Voters Appeal Index
(Using 2011 Presidential Election Data)
Projected % of Geo-Regional Votes won in 2011 by GMB
Projected % of Geo-Regional Votes won in 2011 by GEJ

7. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
Key highlights:
From the evaluation of the possible “Knockout Chance Scenarios, the APC will only have to increase
the percentage of total votes cast for the APC Flag bearer from the voting electorates in their currently
controlled States, from 45.02% to 57.22% ,assuming the support from the PDP Controlled States remains
the same as in 2011.
This implies that mobilizing more electorates to vote from the APC Controlled State will give more
momentum for a “Landslide Victory”.
15,199,166
19,291,520 19,751,667
19,862,770
22,495,187
18,416,813 17,956,666
17,845,563
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
2011 Presidential Election
Votes Won (nos)
2015 Scenario-1 Projected
Presidential Election Votes
Won (nos)
2015 Scenario-2 Projected
Presidential Election Votes
Won (nos)
2015 Scenario-3 Projected
Presidential Election Votes
Won (nos)
2015 Presidential Election "APC Knockout Chance" Summary
for Majority of Votes Won
(Using 2011 Presidential Election Data)
APC (nPDP+ACN+ANPP+CPC) PDP+ Swing States
45.02% 57.22% 58.22% 58.45%
54.98% 42.78% 41.78% 41.55%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 % of Presidential Votes
casted for APC Merger from
Controlling States/ Swing
States /Non Controlling States
2015 Scenario-1 % of
Projected Presidential Votes
for APC from Controlling
States/ Swing States /Non
Controlling States
2015 Scenario-2 % of
Projected Presidential Votes
for APC from Controlling
States/ Swing States /Non
Controlling States
2015 Scenario-3 % of
Projected Presidential Votes
for APC from Controlling
States/ Swing States /Non
Controlling States
Projected Percentage of Votes to be Won by APC from Controlling and Non-Controlling States
APC Votes Gained from PDP States Plus Swing States
Vs
APC Votes Gained from APC States
APC States (nPDP+ACN+ANPP+CPC) PDP States + Swing States

8. 2015 Presidential Election Projections: APC Knockout Chance
In Conclusion, the author’s assessment clearly serves the purpose of presenting a “Citizens” unbiased
and non-partisan view of the possible “knockout” Chance for the APC in the upcoming 2015 Presidential
Election Elections; as it seems the feelers from the “Political Arena” are for a more “Progressive
Oriented Party” in Nigeria.
Usman Oyakhire Suleman is an Oil and Gas Investment Analyst; Strategist and
Engineer with interest in Strategic Developmental Policies for African Countries to boost
their GDP by collaborative initiatives.
Usman is also the Co-Founder of Naija Politiks, an organization with the aim of providing
a platform to educate the electorate on key issues in the polity, while providing ideas and
research for National Policy Enhancement.
Contact Usman Suleman via email:uscivil@yahoo.com