1. CEE POWER
MARKETS
Energy Trading Week CEE 2012
László Siller, Transenergo
2012.04.16.
Picture: Cofface
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

2. OWERVIEW
1. Characteristics of supply
and demand in CEE 7
2. Generation mix
development
3. Givers and takers of
electricity
4. Impact on western
countries
2
ISO 3166 code Picture: MS Clipart

3. FOCUS ON
• DE - Germany
• AT - Austria
CEE Region (CEE 7)
1. BL – Bulgaria
2. CZ – Czech Republic
3. HU – Hungary
4. PL – Poland
5. RO – Romania
6. RS – Republic of Serbia
7. SK – Slovak Republic
ISO 3166 code
DATASET
ENTSOE’s monthly aggregated values
in GWh
https://www.entsoe.eu/ 3
Picture: MS Clipart

4. DEMAND 2008 -2012
• PL is the largest
consumer and has
the largest
seasonality with CZ
• Hungary and
Slovakia has the
[GWh]
lowest seasonality
• The region is half of
DE and AT combined
DE + AT
[GWh]
CEE 7
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis
The regional consumption is half of Germany and Austria
combined ©
4
CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

5. EX-IM BALANCE 2008 -2012
• HU net importer
• CZ and BG net
exporter
IMPORT
[GWh]
• CZ has high
EXPORT
seasonal volatility
(DE – CZ border
500 MW)
• RO exporter
but, dependence
on hydro
• Record values in
previous quarters
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis
Record values in previous quarters
5
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

6. PRODUCTION MIX BY COUNTRY
• Monthly aggregated
UPSIDE PLOTS production in GWH
• Monthly aggregated
DOWNSIDE PLOTS
production in % of
consumption of the
same period
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© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

7. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
BULGARIA
[GWh]
• Big jump in export in
2010 caused by less
consumption
SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO
PRODUCTION
7
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

8. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012
Czech Republic © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
CZECH REPUBLIC
[GWh]
• Growing export trend
comes from growing
production
Czech Republic
8
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

9. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
HUNGARY
[GWh]
• Consumption growth
> production growth
9
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

10. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
POLAND
[GWh]
• Almost pure fossil
• Future carbon price is
a huge risk for the
production, but new
offshore wind
developments lower
that risk
10
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

11. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
ROMANIA
[GWh]
• Renewables still in
growing trend, weather
is becoming an
increasingly important
factor
SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO
PRODUCTION
11
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

12. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
REPUBLIC OF SERBIA
[GWh]
• Fossil vs. Hydro spread
opens from 30% to 70%
SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO
PRODUCTION
12
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

13. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012
Slovak Republic © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
[GWh]
• Importer in 2011
• Since 2011 Q3 SK – HU
cross border liquidity not
Slovak Republic enough to keep spread
down
SIGNIFICANT
HYDRO
PRODUCTION
13
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart

14. MARKET COUPLING
• Markets becoming more and more integrated
• Small differences between countries , Germany and
Austria, Slovakia and Czech Republic
• Extreme weather condition have less effect
• Very flexible East, West, South physical flows
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© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

15. © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION 2008 -2012
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
GERMANY, AUS
TRIA
• Downwards
trend
[GWh]
CEE 7
March 2009. March 2011. • Significantly
growing
production with
less hydro
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis

16. COMPARISON OF IM-EX BALANCE 2008 -2012
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
March 2011.
GERMANY, AUST
RIA
• Germany and
Austria
combined
[GWh]
March 2009.
become
importer
CEE 7
• Still exporter
16
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis

17. COMPARISON OF CONSUMPTIONS 2008 -2012
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
GERMANY, AUSTRI
A
• Slow downwards
trend
[GWh]
CEE 7
• Consumption
growth is lower
than production
growth
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis

18. GERMAN SUPLY DEMAND ANALISYS
with monthly aggregated production and consumption data in GWh
1. TOTAL PRODUCTION 2. TOTAL – WIND 3. TOTAL – WIND – SOLAR
EXPORT EXPORT EXPORT
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
PRODUCTION
IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT
CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION
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© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

19. GERMANY AND AUSTRIA BALANCE 2008 -2012
(monthly data) Germany and Austria combined, supply and demand
[GWh]
EXPORT WIND 2011.02
[GWh]
EXPORT EXPORT
5316 GWh
[GWh]
SOLAR 2011.02
6824 GWh
IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT
[GWh] [GWh] [GWh]
Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
Renewables strongly contribute to export. 19

20. SUMMARY
• CEE Region significant export to Germany
• The export is stable despite less hydro production
• German import from CEE opens avenues for further
power plant developments
• CEE import from west is weather driven and price
independent
• CEE fuel mix foreshadows opportunity for long term
nuclear developments
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© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

21. Q&A
THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION
laszlo.siller@transenergo.hu
(+3620) 576 36 78
Linkedin: László Siller
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Picture: MS Clipart
© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo