Laszlo siller cee_power_markets_2012_04_17

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Laszlo siller cee_power_markets_2012_04_17

  1. 1. CEE POWER MARKETS Energy Trading Week CEE 2012 László Siller, Transenergo 2012.04.16. Picture: Cofface© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  2. 2. OWERVIEW1. Characteristics of supply and demand in CEE 72. Generation mix development3. Givers and takers of electricity4. Impact on western countries 2 ISO 3166 code Picture: MS Clipart
  3. 3. FOCUS ON• DE - Germany• AT - AustriaCEE Region (CEE 7)1. BL – Bulgaria2. CZ – Czech Republic3. HU – Hungary4. PL – Poland5. RO – Romania6. RS – Republic of Serbia7. SK – Slovak Republic ISO 3166 codeDATASETENTSOE’s monthly aggregated valuesin GWhhttps://www.entsoe.eu/ 3 Picture: MS Clipart
  4. 4. DEMAND 2008 -2012 • PL is the largest consumer and has the largest seasonality with CZ • Hungary and Slovakia has the[GWh] lowest seasonality • The region is half of DE and AT combined DE + AT [GWh] CEE 7 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis The regional consumption is half of Germany and Austria combined © 4 CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  5. 5. EX-IM BALANCE 2008 -2012• HU net importer• CZ and BG net exporter IMPORT [GWh]• CZ has high EXPORT seasonal volatility (DE – CZ border 500 MW)• RO exporter but, dependence on hydro• Record values in previous quarters Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysisRecord values in previous quarters 5 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  6. 6. PRODUCTION MIX BY COUNTRY • Monthly aggregated UPSIDE PLOTS production in GWH • Monthly aggregatedDOWNSIDE PLOTS production in % of consumption of the same period 6 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  7. 7. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo BULGARIA[GWh] • Big jump in export in 2010 caused by less consumption SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PRODUCTION 7 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  8. 8. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 Czech Republic © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo CZECH REPUBLIC[GWh] • Growing export trend comes from growing production Czech Republic 8 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  9. 9. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo HUNGARY[GWh] • Consumption growth > production growth 9 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  10. 10. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo POLAND[GWh] • Almost pure fossil • Future carbon price is a huge risk for the production, but new offshore wind developments lower that risk 10 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  11. 11. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo ROMANIA[GWh] • Renewables still in growing trend, weather is becoming an increasingly important factor SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PRODUCTION 11 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  12. 12. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo REPUBLIC OF SERBIA[GWh] • Fossil vs. Hydro spread opens from 30% to 70% SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PRODUCTION 12 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  13. 13. PRODUCTION MIX 2008 -2012 Slovak Republic © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo SLOVAK REPUBLIC[GWh] • Importer in 2011 • Since 2011 Q3 SK – HU cross border liquidity not Slovak Republic enough to keep spread down SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PRODUCTION 13 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis Flag: MS Clipart
  14. 14. MARKET COUPLING• Markets becoming more and more integrated• Small differences between countries , Germany and Austria, Slovakia and Czech Republic• Extreme weather condition have less effect• Very flexible East, West, South physical flows 14 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  15. 15. © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo COMPARISON OF PRODUCTION 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo GERMANY, AUS TRIA • Downwards trend[GWh] CEE 7 March 2009. March 2011. • Significantly growing production with less hydro Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis
  16. 16. COMPARISON OF IM-EX BALANCE 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo March 2011. GERMANY, AUST RIA • Germany and Austria combined[GWh] March 2009. become importer CEE 7 • Still exporter 16 Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis
  17. 17. COMPARISON OF CONSUMPTIONS 2008 -2012 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo GERMANY, AUSTRI A • Slow downwards trend[GWh] CEE 7 • Consumption growth is lower than production growth Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis
  18. 18. GERMAN SUPLY DEMAND ANALISYS with monthly aggregated production and consumption data in GWh 1. TOTAL PRODUCTION 2. TOTAL – WIND 3. TOTAL – WIND – SOLAR EXPORT EXPORT EXPORTPRODUCTION PRODUCTION PRODUCTION IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION CONSUMPTION 18 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  19. 19. GERMANY AND AUSTRIA BALANCE 2008 -2012 (monthly data) Germany and Austria combined, supply and demand [GWh] EXPORT WIND 2011.02 [GWh] EXPORT EXPORT 5316 GWh[GWh] SOLAR 2011.02 6824 GWh IMPORT IMPORT IMPORT [GWh] [GWh] [GWh] Source: ENTSO-E, Point carbon, Transenergo analysis © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo Renewables strongly contribute to export. 19
  20. 20. SUMMARY• CEE Region significant export to Germany• The export is stable despite less hydro production• German import from CEE opens avenues for further power plant developments• CEE import from west is weather driven and price independent• CEE fuel mix foreshadows opportunity for long term nuclear developments 20 © CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo
  21. 21. Q&A THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION laszlo.siller@transenergo.hu (+3620) 576 36 78 Linkedin: László Siller 21 Picture: MS Clipart© CEE POWER MARKETS, Energy Trading Week CEE 2012, László Siller, Transenergo

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