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www.SantiagoSolutionsGroup.com • P: 818.736.5661
Driving Total Market Growth for
Manufacturers and Retailers
Building a Plan Fueled by Hispanics & Millennials
August 15, 2013
Presented by:
Carlos Santiago
President & Chief Strategist
Unlocking sources of Total Market
growth
2
Consumer
Dynamics
Connectors
Nuances
Company
Core
What Business is Co in?
Who Co competes with?
Ingredients, Production,
Packaging, Channels
Accelerated
Growth Segments
Best Prospects
Total Market
Growth
Nuance Nuance
GREEN BEAN
CASSEROLE
MENUDO
3
Family Dinner
Refried Beans &
Tortilla Chips
CONNECTORS
Total Market growth hinges on “Double Plays”
Key to unearth ‘Connectors’ –convergence of Hispanic, Millennials &
NH consumer dynamics, aligned with company core, that accelerate
profitable growth
Unearthing Connectors & Nuances
4
U.S. Palate Embraces Latin Food
Chinese
Italian
Mexican
Seafood
Steakhouse
40%
18%
29%
16%
16%
40%
21%
33%
15%
18%
Out-of-Home Eating Incidence
by Type of Restaurant
2007 2012
Hispanic Food is 2nd most popular in the
country, #1 West of Mississippi
2005 2012 2017
$5.4
$8.2
$10.7
Hispanic Food & Beverages Market
Size in US
Source: Hispanic Food & Beverage in the US 5th Edition
5
Source: SSG analyses of Scarborough USA+ r2 2007 - 2012
Millennials
+6%
Evolving Palate Expands Share of
Plate Opportunity-Challenge
Bread/Pasta/Rice
Potato Chips &
Dip
Red Beans
Quinoa Couscous
Pita & Hummus Tortilla Chips &
Guacamole
Black Pinto Garbanzo
6
Traditional Ingredients Evolve
Traditional
Pork
Pozole
Chili
7
Veggie
Pozole de
Frijol
Quinoa with
Black Beans
and Hominy
Bean and
Hominy
Potpie
Hominy
Bean Salad
Hominy Chili
with Beans
Contemporary-Traditional
• Lighter
• Healthier
• Quick one-dish
• Fun
.
8
Video
Home-cooking & Family dinner.
Need for variety & Openness to
new recipe ideas.
Healthy Eating Is Important To All
• A “Healthy” dinner is most important for 1st Generation Hispanics
• Significantly higher than 2nd generation Hispanics and NH White
More home-cooking, Less Meat, More Grains
and Beans
Total
Market
82%
WNH
79%
Hisp 1st
Gen
90%
Hisp 2nd
Gen
80%
Millennial
82%
When I cook dinner it is important that it
be Healthy (Top 2 Boxes)
Source: Source: SSG-TQF Proprietary research Jan/Feb 2013
9
6%
6%
5%
23%
21%
Total…
WNH
Hispanic
Millennial
Mill M/C
Organic Buyers CAGR
Organic Is Accelerating
Perceptions
 Healthier, grown naturally
 No pesticides, additives, chemicals
 Good for workers in the field
 Watchful of Price/Value relationship
10Source: SSG Analysis of Gfk-MRI, Spring 2006 – Fall 2012
Millennial & Multicultural Millennial fueling
growth rate; Hispanic follows closely
Latinas are Most Open to
Purchasing New Convenience
Packaging Forms
 Shortcuts are OK, provided…
 Quality & taste
 No one can tell
 For “emergencies”
11
Likelihood to Purchase New
Convenient Product – Top2 Boxes
Total
Market
57%
WNH
51%
Hispanic
1st Gen
65% Hispanic
2nd Gen
59%
Millennial
53%
Source: Source: SSG-TQF Proprietary research Jan/Feb 2013
Private Label Continues to Grow
From Pre- Recession Levels
The base of Hispanic Food PL
buyers is increasing 3x faster
than WNH
12
PL Buyer Base CAGR
Buyer Incidence of Food Private
Label By Segment
All incidences have increased
remarkably
Source: SSG Analysis of Gfk-MRI, Spring 2006 – Fall 2012
• Millennial PL Food buyer base has exploded due to
segment size increase as well as incidence increase
• 3 in 4 consumers believe Private Label Products Have
Improved in the Past Few Years*
51%
55%
43%
48%
39%
65%
70%
56%
61%
49%
Total Market White NH Hisp Millennial M/C Mill
Pre-Recession Post-Recession
1.7% 1.3%
4.1%
22.1%
Total WhiteNH Hispanic Mill
13
.
Video
Healthy eating.
Convenience.
Strategic Implications
14
Leverage Connectors While Tailoring
to Pertinent Nuances
CONNECTORS
 Dinner means family gatherings
 Consumers thinking/planning
meals in terms of recipes &
experiences not isolated
ingredients
 Rising popularity of Mexican/Pan-
Hispanic cuisine
 Healthier lives from healthier
eating
 Convenience trumps price;
Quality trumps convenience
 Trust for brands is high, yet trust
for PL has broadened
NUANCES
 Meal variety/ingredient evolution at
different paces and expanses, i.e.:
 Hispanic HH - Kids drive
experimentation …pozole to
minestrone soup
 NH HH – rice to Quinoa
 Category competition softer among
Hispanics
 Role of dinner is revered by all but
more sacred to 1st generation
 1st Gen Hispanics look for
Convenience but call it “emergency”
 Hispanics lag a bit behind
Millennials & Non-Hispanics in PL,
but growing faster
15
Strategic Implications for Brands
Exploring consumer dynamics’ & alignment with
the company core guide strategic anchors
• Connectors that may unearth ‘Double Plays’
– Powerful insights in-common across current & most likely
adopters
• Nuances that will strengthen the context of the
communications and promotions
– Increased Brand relevance and resonance
• Sources of incremental growth that can realistically
lift the historic growth rate
– Value added innovation
– Adjacencies: Brand cross-sell, expanded occasions, new
forms, recipes, packaging, expanded channels, leveraged
capabilities
• Ways to further differentiate the brand
– Rational benefits –i.e.: convenience
– Emotional reward –i.e.: more love & time for kids
– Spiritual reward—i.e.: social impact
• More precise target niches of most likely adopters
geo-targeted promos
- i.e.: Upscale Hispanics, healthy Millennials…
16
Capture the Biggest Opportunity Consumers Among
Fastest Growth Segments
Potential Size of Prize
Consumer Dynamics & Core-Adjacencies Analysis
Drive Total Market Incremental Opportunity
2013 2014 2015
BAU
Cons Dynamics Incr Opp
Model
Adjacencies Incr Opp Model
+9%
4%
1.8%
• Top growth potential acts on
most aligned double-plays
within redefined core -yields
+9% Total Market CAGR lift
over current trajectory (BAU)
• Moderate growth scenario
better leverages connectors &
nuances in marketing
strategies lifting growth rate by
4% vs. BAU
• Business As Usual, unchanged
trajectory, yielding +2%
annual increase
17
Double
Plays
Sample
18
$0.36
$0.56
$0.22
$0.13
$0.18
$0.22
$0.06
$0.10
$0.21
$0.50
$0.88
$0.45
$0.25
$0.30 $0.27
$0.13 $0.16
$0.11
NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP
Radio
(↑)
TV (↑) Print (↑) Mobile
(↑)
Promo (↑)Trade (↑) Internet (↓)Total
Marketing (↑)
NH HISP
Total
Media (↑)
NH HISP
Recalibrating Marketing Effectiveness (ROI)
Enhances overall Total Market growth
Assessing what marketing vehicles, messages, promotions drive Total
Market gains and which are less effective to optimize overall ROI
18
Sample SSG Market Mix Analysis
Strategic Implications for Retailers
• Category Management
– Promote innovation
• New categories
• New brands
• New products
• Incite Trial
– Offer sampling
– Provide easy full meal recipes of:
• Trendy dishes
• New uses for “old” ingredients
– Promote value-add products with
price-conscious consumers
19
Thank You
Follow us Online
@Carlos_SSG
@Santiago_Group
LINKEDIN
Moderator
20
Bessie
Ramírez
Partner
Santiago
Solutions Group
Econometrics
Research, Analytics,
Strategy & Growth
ADD ICONS FOR
TWEETER/LINKEDIN
NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIPTION
Teasdale Quality Foods
21
• A portfolio company of Palladium Equity Partners
• Private Equity group of particular expertise in food companies well
positioned for growth in the Hispanic market
• In business for over 70 years, TQF is a leading manufacturer of
authentic canned dry pack beans, dehydrated beans and hominy
• Offers a vast array of products to service key National
Supermarket Chains, Hispanic Independent Retailers, major
Foodservice distributors and Industrial customers
Private Label Consumer Brands Foodservice
Save Mart Supermarkets
• Founded in 1952
• 226 retail locations under
the Save Mart, Lucky,
S-Mart Foods, FoodMaxx,
and Maxx Value Foods
• Operates in Northern
California and Nevada
• 17,300 associates
• $4.3B in annual sales
22
Box Store
Conventional
Conventional
Panel of Experts
Alberto
Bandera
Chief Executive
Officer
Beans & Hominy
Mfg: Branded,
Private Label &
Food Service
Carlos
Santiago
President & Chief
Strategist
Consulting: Econo-
metrics Research,
Analytics, Strategy
& Growth
Implementation
Chris
Vasconcellos
Senior Director of
Center Store
Retail: Conventional
Market, Box Store &
Limited Assortment
23

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SSG driving Total Market Growth for retailers and manufacturers

  • 1. www.SantiagoSolutionsGroup.com • P: 818.736.5661 Driving Total Market Growth for Manufacturers and Retailers Building a Plan Fueled by Hispanics & Millennials August 15, 2013 Presented by: Carlos Santiago President & Chief Strategist
  • 2. Unlocking sources of Total Market growth 2 Consumer Dynamics Connectors Nuances Company Core What Business is Co in? Who Co competes with? Ingredients, Production, Packaging, Channels Accelerated Growth Segments Best Prospects Total Market Growth
  • 3. Nuance Nuance GREEN BEAN CASSEROLE MENUDO 3 Family Dinner Refried Beans & Tortilla Chips CONNECTORS Total Market growth hinges on “Double Plays” Key to unearth ‘Connectors’ –convergence of Hispanic, Millennials & NH consumer dynamics, aligned with company core, that accelerate profitable growth
  • 5. U.S. Palate Embraces Latin Food Chinese Italian Mexican Seafood Steakhouse 40% 18% 29% 16% 16% 40% 21% 33% 15% 18% Out-of-Home Eating Incidence by Type of Restaurant 2007 2012 Hispanic Food is 2nd most popular in the country, #1 West of Mississippi 2005 2012 2017 $5.4 $8.2 $10.7 Hispanic Food & Beverages Market Size in US Source: Hispanic Food & Beverage in the US 5th Edition 5 Source: SSG analyses of Scarborough USA+ r2 2007 - 2012 Millennials +6%
  • 6. Evolving Palate Expands Share of Plate Opportunity-Challenge Bread/Pasta/Rice Potato Chips & Dip Red Beans Quinoa Couscous Pita & Hummus Tortilla Chips & Guacamole Black Pinto Garbanzo 6
  • 7. Traditional Ingredients Evolve Traditional Pork Pozole Chili 7 Veggie Pozole de Frijol Quinoa with Black Beans and Hominy Bean and Hominy Potpie Hominy Bean Salad Hominy Chili with Beans Contemporary-Traditional • Lighter • Healthier • Quick one-dish • Fun
  • 8. . 8 Video Home-cooking & Family dinner. Need for variety & Openness to new recipe ideas.
  • 9. Healthy Eating Is Important To All • A “Healthy” dinner is most important for 1st Generation Hispanics • Significantly higher than 2nd generation Hispanics and NH White More home-cooking, Less Meat, More Grains and Beans Total Market 82% WNH 79% Hisp 1st Gen 90% Hisp 2nd Gen 80% Millennial 82% When I cook dinner it is important that it be Healthy (Top 2 Boxes) Source: Source: SSG-TQF Proprietary research Jan/Feb 2013 9
  • 10. 6% 6% 5% 23% 21% Total… WNH Hispanic Millennial Mill M/C Organic Buyers CAGR Organic Is Accelerating Perceptions  Healthier, grown naturally  No pesticides, additives, chemicals  Good for workers in the field  Watchful of Price/Value relationship 10Source: SSG Analysis of Gfk-MRI, Spring 2006 – Fall 2012 Millennial & Multicultural Millennial fueling growth rate; Hispanic follows closely
  • 11. Latinas are Most Open to Purchasing New Convenience Packaging Forms  Shortcuts are OK, provided…  Quality & taste  No one can tell  For “emergencies” 11 Likelihood to Purchase New Convenient Product – Top2 Boxes Total Market 57% WNH 51% Hispanic 1st Gen 65% Hispanic 2nd Gen 59% Millennial 53% Source: Source: SSG-TQF Proprietary research Jan/Feb 2013
  • 12. Private Label Continues to Grow From Pre- Recession Levels The base of Hispanic Food PL buyers is increasing 3x faster than WNH 12 PL Buyer Base CAGR Buyer Incidence of Food Private Label By Segment All incidences have increased remarkably Source: SSG Analysis of Gfk-MRI, Spring 2006 – Fall 2012 • Millennial PL Food buyer base has exploded due to segment size increase as well as incidence increase • 3 in 4 consumers believe Private Label Products Have Improved in the Past Few Years* 51% 55% 43% 48% 39% 65% 70% 56% 61% 49% Total Market White NH Hisp Millennial M/C Mill Pre-Recession Post-Recession 1.7% 1.3% 4.1% 22.1% Total WhiteNH Hispanic Mill
  • 15. Leverage Connectors While Tailoring to Pertinent Nuances CONNECTORS  Dinner means family gatherings  Consumers thinking/planning meals in terms of recipes & experiences not isolated ingredients  Rising popularity of Mexican/Pan- Hispanic cuisine  Healthier lives from healthier eating  Convenience trumps price; Quality trumps convenience  Trust for brands is high, yet trust for PL has broadened NUANCES  Meal variety/ingredient evolution at different paces and expanses, i.e.:  Hispanic HH - Kids drive experimentation …pozole to minestrone soup  NH HH – rice to Quinoa  Category competition softer among Hispanics  Role of dinner is revered by all but more sacred to 1st generation  1st Gen Hispanics look for Convenience but call it “emergency”  Hispanics lag a bit behind Millennials & Non-Hispanics in PL, but growing faster 15
  • 16. Strategic Implications for Brands Exploring consumer dynamics’ & alignment with the company core guide strategic anchors • Connectors that may unearth ‘Double Plays’ – Powerful insights in-common across current & most likely adopters • Nuances that will strengthen the context of the communications and promotions – Increased Brand relevance and resonance • Sources of incremental growth that can realistically lift the historic growth rate – Value added innovation – Adjacencies: Brand cross-sell, expanded occasions, new forms, recipes, packaging, expanded channels, leveraged capabilities • Ways to further differentiate the brand – Rational benefits –i.e.: convenience – Emotional reward –i.e.: more love & time for kids – Spiritual reward—i.e.: social impact • More precise target niches of most likely adopters geo-targeted promos - i.e.: Upscale Hispanics, healthy Millennials… 16 Capture the Biggest Opportunity Consumers Among Fastest Growth Segments
  • 17. Potential Size of Prize Consumer Dynamics & Core-Adjacencies Analysis Drive Total Market Incremental Opportunity 2013 2014 2015 BAU Cons Dynamics Incr Opp Model Adjacencies Incr Opp Model +9% 4% 1.8% • Top growth potential acts on most aligned double-plays within redefined core -yields +9% Total Market CAGR lift over current trajectory (BAU) • Moderate growth scenario better leverages connectors & nuances in marketing strategies lifting growth rate by 4% vs. BAU • Business As Usual, unchanged trajectory, yielding +2% annual increase 17 Double Plays Sample
  • 18. 18 $0.36 $0.56 $0.22 $0.13 $0.18 $0.22 $0.06 $0.10 $0.21 $0.50 $0.88 $0.45 $0.25 $0.30 $0.27 $0.13 $0.16 $0.11 NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP NH HISP Radio (↑) TV (↑) Print (↑) Mobile (↑) Promo (↑)Trade (↑) Internet (↓)Total Marketing (↑) NH HISP Total Media (↑) NH HISP Recalibrating Marketing Effectiveness (ROI) Enhances overall Total Market growth Assessing what marketing vehicles, messages, promotions drive Total Market gains and which are less effective to optimize overall ROI 18 Sample SSG Market Mix Analysis
  • 19. Strategic Implications for Retailers • Category Management – Promote innovation • New categories • New brands • New products • Incite Trial – Offer sampling – Provide easy full meal recipes of: • Trendy dishes • New uses for “old” ingredients – Promote value-add products with price-conscious consumers 19
  • 20. Thank You Follow us Online @Carlos_SSG @Santiago_Group LINKEDIN Moderator 20 Bessie Ramírez Partner Santiago Solutions Group Econometrics Research, Analytics, Strategy & Growth ADD ICONS FOR TWEETER/LINKEDIN NEWSLETTER SUBSCRIPTION
  • 21. Teasdale Quality Foods 21 • A portfolio company of Palladium Equity Partners • Private Equity group of particular expertise in food companies well positioned for growth in the Hispanic market • In business for over 70 years, TQF is a leading manufacturer of authentic canned dry pack beans, dehydrated beans and hominy • Offers a vast array of products to service key National Supermarket Chains, Hispanic Independent Retailers, major Foodservice distributors and Industrial customers Private Label Consumer Brands Foodservice
  • 22. Save Mart Supermarkets • Founded in 1952 • 226 retail locations under the Save Mart, Lucky, S-Mart Foods, FoodMaxx, and Maxx Value Foods • Operates in Northern California and Nevada • 17,300 associates • $4.3B in annual sales 22 Box Store Conventional Conventional
  • 23. Panel of Experts Alberto Bandera Chief Executive Officer Beans & Hominy Mfg: Branded, Private Label & Food Service Carlos Santiago President & Chief Strategist Consulting: Econo- metrics Research, Analytics, Strategy & Growth Implementation Chris Vasconcellos Senior Director of Center Store Retail: Conventional Market, Box Store & Limited Assortment 23