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Ryan Prior
Why did non-violent action succeed in British India
(1930) but fail in British South Africa (1960)?
     1930, India              1960, South Africa
     Salt Satyagraha          Pass Law Protest
     Government non-          Police kill 69 people
      interference
     1935,                    ANC commences
      Government of            terrorism, 1961
      India Act
Gandhi is Man of the Year (1930)   South Africans Are Massacred (1960)
   Why did mass organized disobedience to an
    unjust law (or laws) fulfill political objectives
    in India (1930) but not fulfill similar objectives
    in South Africa (1960)?
   Non-violent action: Organized events of civil
    disobedience, strikes, and boycotts
    undertaken to compel government policy
    change
   Success:
     Degree of socio-economic disruption:
      ▪ GDP
      ▪ Participation
      ▪ Number of Arrests
     Stated goals are achieved:
      ▪ Polity IV Democracy Trends (Post-1946)
      ▪ Policy Changes and Legislative Victories
     Sustainment of non-violent action toward bigger
     goals:
      ▪ Future non-violent action
      ▪ Violent actions (Global Terror Database—START, post-1960)
 Gene Sharp, Gandhi as a Political Strategist
Classic work that posits Gandhi’s strategic
  genius was of greater relevance than his
  moral and philosophical beliefs
 Peter Ackerman and Chris Kreugler,
  Strategic Non-Violent Conflict
Rates various non-violent movements on their
  fulfillment of 12 principles of success
   Steven Zunes, “The Role of Non-Violent
    Action in the Downfall of Apartheid”
     Non-violent success in 1980s
   Revolutionary and Dissident Movements of
    the World

 Background
Long Walk to Freedom, Nelson Mandela
The Story of My Experiments With Truth,
  Mohandas Gandhi
   If a civil disobedience campaign lacks
    precisely articulated methods and
    organizational discipline (“coherent strategic
    vision”), then it will fail.
   Setting Functional Objectives
   Non-Violent Discipline
     Number and size of riots
   Protesters:
     Total Members of Organizing Organizations
      ▪ % of national population participating
     Total Number of Chapters
     Economic or Racial Barriers to Entry
   Racist Ideology/Authoritarianism of Regime
     South African Republic Referendum (1960)
     British Colony vs. British Commonwealth
   Legal status
     ANC/PAC were banned in SA, 1960
   Singular, charismatic leadership
   Ideology of pacifism (present/not present)
   Non-Violent Tradition (Number of Past Protests)
   International Opinion
     Soviet Influence in ANC
     British dragging their feet on international sanctions
Boycotts, civil   Social       Bargaining,
disobedience,     Disruption   negotiations   Policy Change
marches
   Specific literature of non-violent protest as a
    strategy
   Specified rubrics for analyzing the strength
    and quality of a non-violent campaign
   Analysis of effects. Need more analysis of
    conditions leading to start of non-violent
    events.
   Testing Hypothesis—Could be wrong?
   Lessons of 1960 Failure Explain Success of
    “Ungovernability” in the 1980s?
   Implications for success of Arab Spring
    movements and for 21st century revolutions

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Civil disobedience cits

  • 2. Why did non-violent action succeed in British India (1930) but fail in British South Africa (1960)?  1930, India 1960, South Africa  Salt Satyagraha Pass Law Protest  Government non- Police kill 69 people interference  1935, ANC commences Government of terrorism, 1961 India Act
  • 3. Gandhi is Man of the Year (1930) South Africans Are Massacred (1960)
  • 4. Why did mass organized disobedience to an unjust law (or laws) fulfill political objectives in India (1930) but not fulfill similar objectives in South Africa (1960)?
  • 5. Non-violent action: Organized events of civil disobedience, strikes, and boycotts undertaken to compel government policy change
  • 6. Success:  Degree of socio-economic disruption: ▪ GDP ▪ Participation ▪ Number of Arrests  Stated goals are achieved: ▪ Polity IV Democracy Trends (Post-1946) ▪ Policy Changes and Legislative Victories  Sustainment of non-violent action toward bigger goals: ▪ Future non-violent action ▪ Violent actions (Global Terror Database—START, post-1960)
  • 7.  Gene Sharp, Gandhi as a Political Strategist Classic work that posits Gandhi’s strategic genius was of greater relevance than his moral and philosophical beliefs  Peter Ackerman and Chris Kreugler, Strategic Non-Violent Conflict Rates various non-violent movements on their fulfillment of 12 principles of success
  • 8. Steven Zunes, “The Role of Non-Violent Action in the Downfall of Apartheid”  Non-violent success in 1980s  Revolutionary and Dissident Movements of the World  Background Long Walk to Freedom, Nelson Mandela The Story of My Experiments With Truth, Mohandas Gandhi
  • 9. If a civil disobedience campaign lacks precisely articulated methods and organizational discipline (“coherent strategic vision”), then it will fail.
  • 10. Setting Functional Objectives  Non-Violent Discipline  Number and size of riots  Protesters:  Total Members of Organizing Organizations ▪ % of national population participating  Total Number of Chapters  Economic or Racial Barriers to Entry
  • 11. Racist Ideology/Authoritarianism of Regime  South African Republic Referendum (1960)  British Colony vs. British Commonwealth  Legal status  ANC/PAC were banned in SA, 1960  Singular, charismatic leadership  Ideology of pacifism (present/not present)  Non-Violent Tradition (Number of Past Protests)  International Opinion  Soviet Influence in ANC  British dragging their feet on international sanctions
  • 12. Boycotts, civil Social Bargaining, disobedience, Disruption negotiations Policy Change marches
  • 13. Specific literature of non-violent protest as a strategy  Specified rubrics for analyzing the strength and quality of a non-violent campaign  Analysis of effects. Need more analysis of conditions leading to start of non-violent events.
  • 14. Testing Hypothesis—Could be wrong?  Lessons of 1960 Failure Explain Success of “Ungovernability” in the 1980s?  Implications for success of Arab Spring movements and for 21st century revolutions