The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.80% of Asia Pacific regional power generation by 2014, with a modest generation surplus that provides a theoretical export capability. BMI's Asia Pacific power generation assumption for 2009 is 7,223 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of just 1.5% over the previous year thanks to reduced economic expansion. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,624TWh by 2014, representing a rise of 33.3%. Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,747TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region. Our forecast for 2014 is 7,493TWh, implying 30.38% growth which would reduce the market share of thermal generation to 77.9%. This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The Philippines' thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 50.5TWh, or 0.88% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to account for an unchanged 0.88% of thermal generation in the region. For the Philippines, oil is the dominant fuel, in 2008 accounting for 53.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 24.8%, gas at 12.5% and hydro-electric energy at 8.9%. Regional energy demand is forecast to reach 5,215mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 31.10% growth from the estimated 2009 level. The Philippines' 2009 market share of an estimated 0.67% is set to ease to 0.64% by 2014. The country's estimated 9.5TWh of hydro demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 11.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from an estimated 1.03% to 0.88% over the period. The Philippines is now ranked ninth behind Indonesia and Malaysia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to its relatively high level of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country risk factors offset some of the industry strength, but the country may be able to keep Pakistan at bay and potentially challenge and overtake Indonesia during the next few quarters. BMI is now forecasting Philippines' real GDP growth averaging 4.00% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the 2009 assumption being 1.50%. Population is expected to expand from 91.4mn to 100.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita and electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 63% and 20% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to increase from an estimated 52.5TWh in 2009 to 62.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus generation rising from an estimated 7.5TWh in 2009 to 14.5TWh in 2014, assuming 4.4% annual growth in electricity generation. Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in the Philippines' electricity generation of 70.3%, which is around the middle of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 32.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 28.9% in 2009-2014. PED growth is set to increase from 25.8% in 2009-2014 to 26.6%, representing 59.3% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 32% in hydro-power use during 2009-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 78% between 2009 and 2019. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at the end of this report.

1. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
>> Get this Report Now by email!
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010
Published on January 2010
Report Summary
The new Philippines Power Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for just 0.80% of Asia Pacific regional power
generation by 2014, with a modest generation surplus that provides a theoretical export capability. BMI's Asia Pacific power
generation assumption for 2009 is 7,223 terawatt hours (TWh), representing an increase of just 1.5% over the previous year thanks to
reduced economic expansion. We are forecasting an increase in regional generation to 9,624TWh by 2014, representing a rise of
33.3%.
Thermal power generation in 2009 totalled an estimated 5,747TWh, accounting for 79.6% of the total electricity supplied in the region.
Our forecast for 2014 is 7,493TWh, implying 30.38% growth which would reduce the market share of thermal generation to 77.9%.
This is thanks largely to environmental concerns promoting renewable sources, hydro-electricity and nuclear generation. The
Philippines' thermal generation in 2009 was an estimated 50.5TWh, or 0.88% of the regional total. By 2014, the country is expected to
account for an unchanged 0.88% of thermal generation in the region. For the Philippines, oil is the dominant fuel, in 2008 accounting
for 53.8% of primary energy demand (PED), followed by coal at 24.8%, gas at 12.5% and hydro-electric energy at 8.9%. Regional
energy demand is forecast to reach 5,215mn tonnes of oil equivalent (toe) by 2014, representing 31.10% growth from the estimated
2009 level. The Philippines' 2009 market share of an estimated 0.67% is set to ease to 0.64% by 2014. The country's estimated
9.5TWh of hydro demand in 2009 is forecast to reach 11.5TWh by 2014, with its share of the Asia Pacific hydro market falling from an
estimated 1.03% to 0.88% over the period.
The Philippines is now ranked ninth behind Indonesia and Malaysia in BMI's updated Power Business Environment rating, thanks to
its relatively high level of renewables usage and healthy energy demand growth prospects. Country risk factors offset some of the
industry strength, but the country may be able to keep Pakistan at bay and potentially challenge and overtake Indonesia during the
next few quarters. BMI is now forecasting Philippines' real GDP growth averaging 4.00% a year between 2010 and 2014, with the
2009 assumption being 1.50%. Population is expected to expand from 91.4mn to 100.1mn over the period, with GDP per capita and
electricity consumption per capita forecast to increase by 63% and 20% respectively. The country's power consumption is expected to
increase from an estimated 52.5TWh in 2009 to 62.8TWh by the end of the forecast period, leaving theoretical surplus generation
rising from an estimated 7.5TWh in 2009 to 14.5TWh in 2014, assuming 4.4% annual growth in electricity generation.
Between 2009 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in the Philippines' electricity generation of 70.3%, which is around the middle
of the range for the Asia Pacific region. This equates to 32.2% in the 2014-2019 period, up from 28.9% in 2009-2014. PED growth is
set to increase from 25.8% in 2009-2014 to 26.6%, representing 59.3% for the entire forecast period. An increase of 32% in
hydro-power use during 2009-2019 is a key element of generation growth. Thermal power generation is forecast to rise by 78%
between 2009 and 2019. More details of our long-term power forecasts are at the end of this report.
Table of Content
Executive Summary .....5
SWOT Analysis 7
Philippines Power Business Environment SWOT .. 7
Philippines Political SWOT ........... 8
Philippines Economic SWOT ......... 8
Industry Overview ........9
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010 Page 1/5

2. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Global ........ 9
Table: Global Summary, 2007-2014 ...... 9
Asia Pacific Region ......... 10
Table: Asia Pacific Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) ...... 11
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2007-2014 (TWh) ........ 12
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2007-2014 (mn toe) ......... 13
Table: Asia Pacific Gas Consumption, 2007-2014 (bcm) 14
Table: Asia Pacific Coal Consumption, 2007-2014 (mn toe) ... 15
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Energy Consumption, 2007-2014 (TWh) ..... 16
Market Overview .........17
Primary Energy Demand 17
Power Generation ........... 17
Power Consumption ........ 19
Regulation And Competition ........ 20
Pricing ..... 21
Power Transmission ....... 23
Business Environment ......24
Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Ratings .......... 24
Table: Asia Pacific Power Business Environment Rating 24
Philippines' Power Rating ........... 25
Legal Framework ............ 26
Infrastructure ... 28
Labour Force ... 29
Foreign Investment Policy ........... 30
Tax Regime ...... 31
Security Risk .... 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Philippines' Power Outlook ......... 34
Generation ....... 34
Gas-Fired 34
Oil-Fired .. 35
Coal-Fired ....... 35
Nuclear Energy 36
Hydro-Electric . 36
Renewable Energy .......... 37
Power Costs ..... 39
Transmission .... 39
Table: The Philippines' Power Sector, 2007-2014 .......... 40
Table: The Philippines' Thermal Power Sector, 2007-2014 .... 41
Table: The Philippines' Non-Thermal Power, 2007-2014 ....... 42
Table: The Philippines' Power Costs, 2007-2014 ............ 42
Assumptions And Methodology .... 43
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 43
Long-Term Power Outlook .......... 43
Macroeconomic Outlook . 43
Table: Philippines ' Economic Activity, 2007-2013 ........ 46
Power Outlook: Long-Term Forecasts ..........47
Global Snapshot .............. 47
Table: Global Summary, 2012-2019 .... 47
Asia Pacific Regional Outlook ..... 47
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010 Page 2/5

3. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Table: Asia Pacific Electricity Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) . 48
Table: Asia Pacific Primary Energy Demand, 2012-2019 (mn toe) ......... 49
Table: Asia Pacific Thermal Power Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) ........ 50
Table: Asia Pacific Hydro-Electric Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) ......... 51
Table: Asia Pacific Nuclear Generation, 2012-2019 (TWh) .... 52
Philippines' Country Overview .... 52
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts .. 52
Competitive Landscape .....54
Napocor ... 55
TransCo ... 55
First Gen .. 56
Mirant ...... 56
Meralco ... 57
Company Monitor .......58
First Gen .. 58
Country Snapshot: Philippines Demographic Data ............61
Section 1: Population ...... 61
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 ....... 61
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 ...... 62
Section 2: Education And Healthcare .. 62
Table: Education, 2002-2005 ...... 62
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 62
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power . 63
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 ......... 63
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2007-2012 (US$) ............ 63
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2004-2006 ..... 64
BMI Methodology .......65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts ......... 65
Power Industry 65
Cross Checks ... 66
Sources ......... 66
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010 Page 3/5

4. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Fax Order Form
To place an order via fax simply print this form, fill in the information below and fax the completed form to:
Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56
Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93
If you have any questions please visit http://www.reportlinker.com/notify/contact
Order Information
Please verify that the product information is correct and select the format(s) you require.
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010
Product Formats
Please select the product formats and the quantity you require.
Digital Copy--USD 530.00 Quantity: _____
Contact Information
Please enter all the information below in BLOCK CAPITALS
Title: Mr Mrs Dr Miss Ms Prof
First Name: _____________________________ Last Name: __________________________________
Email Address: __________________________________________________________________________
Job Title: __________________________________________________________________________
Organization: __________________________________________________________________________
Address: __________________________________________________________________________
City: __________________________________________________________________________
Postal / Zip Code: __________________________________________________________________________
Country: __________________________________________________________________________
Phone Number: __________________________________________________________________________
Fax Number: __________________________________________________________________________
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010 Page 4/5

5. Find Industry reports, Company profiles
ReportLinker and Market Statistics
Payment Information
Please indicate the payment method, you would like to use by selecting the appropriate box.
Payment by credit card Card Number: ______________________________________________
Expiry Date __________ / _________
CVV Number _____________________
Card Type (ex: Visa, Amex…) _________________________________
Payment by wire transfer Crédit Mutuel
RIB : 10278 07314 00020257701 89
BIC : CMCIFR2A
IBAN : FR76 1027 8073 1400 0202 5770 189
Payment by check UBIQUICK SAS
16 rue Grenette – 69002 LYON, FRANCE
Customer signature:
Please note that by ordering from Reportlinker you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions at
http://www.reportlinker.com/index/terms
Please fax this form to:
Europe, Middle East and Africa : + 33 4 37 37 15 56
Asia, Oceania and America : + 1 (805) 617 17 93
Philippines Power Report Q1 2010 Page 5/5