The global niobium market rebounded quickly from the slump in consumption in 2009 and by 2011 demand had returned to near peak levels. Recovery slowed in 2012 but a return to long-term growth is certain. This is a summary of the report Niobium: Market Outlook to 2017 published by Roskill.

1. Niobium goes from strength to strength
The global niobium market rebounded quickly from the slump in consumption in
2009 and by 2011 demand had returned to near peak levels. Recovery slowed in
2012 but a return to long-term growth is certain.
Niobium is used mainly as an alloying element for certain types of high-strength and
stainless steel, where it is added in very small amounts per tonne, but also has
applications in superalloys for aerospace and land-based power generation and in
superconductors. In most of the market segments, demand is very closely linked to
overall economic trends. In the case of steel, however, a major driver of future demand
could be growth in the intensity of use of niobium. Several countries with large steel
industries have high forecast rates of growth in production, notably China, India and
Russia, but have intensities of use for niobium far below the world average and very
much lower than the mature industrial economies. There is significant potential for an
increase in niobium demand that is well-above the underlying economic trends that will
govern total steel production.
Even with the anticipated growth in demand for niobium, there is little risk of supply
moving into deficit. There is currently sufficient production capacity for ferroniobium and
other products, such as high-purity niobium oxide, and that capacity will be increased
further by the existing producers.
Reserves of pyrochlore, the principal niobium mineral, are very large and adequate to
support current rates of production for many years. The three main producers and
converters of pyrochlore are expanding their capacity for ferroniobium and other
downstream products and security of supply is highly unlikely to be an issue in the
foreseeable future. The non-pyrochlore segment of supply is comparatively small and
based mostly on artisanal or semi-industrial mining in Africa and South America.
Although small, this part of primary supply makes up most of the international trade in
niobium concentrates and is also a mainstay of the non-steel processing sector.
Numerous greenfield niobium projects are in the pipeline. A high proportion are
dependent on the market economics for other commodities, such as rare earths, and
most will probably not be commercialised before 2017 and will not be major contributors
to supply.
Niobium prices are historically very stable and demand-inelastic. A step increase in
prices occurred from the mid-2000s, after which stability was restored. Ferroniobium
prices are expected to remain on a gentle upward trend, with few sharp movements,
other than in the spot market, which forms a minor part of the overall market. Prices for
other niobium products have and will retain a premium over those of ferroniobium.
Niobium: Market Outlook to 2017 (12th edition) has been published and is available
at http://www.roskill.com/niobium.