Uzi Rubin - Global Threat Evolution – An Update

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This is a presentation delivered by Uzi Rubin, at the RUSI Missile Defence Conference 2014

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Uzi Rubin - Global Threat Evolution – An Update

  1. 1. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 1 Rockets and Missiles in The Middle East – Global Implications Presentation to the 15h RUSI Missile Defense Conference, March 2014 • Rockets and missiles in Syria’s Civil War (contd.) • Syrian rocket shipment to Gaza • Iran’s missiles programs march on. • Strategic Implications. All information herein come from open sources. Copyright Rubincon Ltd
  2. 2. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 2 Syria’s Civil War Source: The Economist August 2013
  3. 3. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 3 Syrian Army Applies Massive Firepower to Destroy Insurgent Held Urban Areas Yabrood, March 2014
  4. 4. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 4 Contested Neighborhood in Homs: Before Eros sat, June 2013 courtesy of Israel Aerospace Industries Syrian Army Applies Massive Firepower to Destroy Insurgent Held Urban Areas
  5. 5. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 5 Syrian Army Applies Massive Firepower to Destroy Insurgent Held Urban Areas Contested Neighborhood in Homs: After Eros sat, June 2013 courtesy of Israel Aerospace Industries
  6. 6. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 6 Syrian Air Force Combat Aircraft Lost to Insurgents Air Defense
  7. 7. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 7 (late 2012) Syrian Army Response: Ground Launched Weapons Scud FROG 7 SS - 21 Tishrin (Fatah 110)
  8. 8. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 8 Kafer Harmeh June 2013 Aleppo February 2013 Effects of SCUD Warheads
  9. 9. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 9 Early Sightings of “Barrel Rockets” and Their Launchers (Late 2012)
  10. 10. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 10 “Barrel Rocket” Reconstruction
  11. 11. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 11 Syria’s Family of “Barrel Rockets” (VOLCANO)Apparently dubbed “Burkan” 107mm 122mm(?) 302mm • Short Ranges (0.5 – 2.5 Km) • Heavy warheads (up to 1+ ton) • Low cost alternatives to combat aircraft and ballistic missiles. • All types seen in Syrian regime service
  12. 12. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 12 “Barrel Rockets” in Hizbullah’s Service?
  13. 13. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 13 Possible Inspiration: US M130 Experimental Minefield Clearing Rocket System Fuel/Air Warhead, 1970’s Courtesy Tal Inbar, Fisher Institute
  14. 14. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 14 Use of CW in the Syria Civil War • Early reports: March 2013, Aleppo and Damascus districts. • The low number of casualties did not attract global attention. • Possible motive: Compelling civilians to flee thus exposing the active insurgents • The Assad regime denied responsibility and invited UN fact finding teams.
  15. 15. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 15 The CW Attack on Insurgent Held Suburbs of Damascus, August 21 st 2013 Approximately 1500 Fatalities
  16. 16. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 16 Identification of the CW Rockets of August 21st by the UN Inspection Team Muadamieh: Russian origin 140 mm artillery rockets Range Capability: 3.5 – 9.5 Km Zamalka and Ein Tarma: “330 mm” rockets Estimated range capability about 2 Km
  17. 17. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 17
  18. 18. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 18
  19. 19. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 19
  20. 20. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 20
  21. 21. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 21 Syrian Army Operation “Rif Damashk” March – August 2013 Zamalka/Ein TarmaMuadamiah
  22. 22. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 22 Human Rights Watch Map of CW Rocket impacts in Damascus, August 21 st 2013
  23. 23. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 23 2 Km Jawbar Industrial Zone Mezzeh Airfield 3.5 Km Human Rights Watch Map of CW Rocket impacts in Damascus, August 21 st 2013
  24. 24. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 24 “Whodoneit?” • The short range of the chemical rockets did not preclude their use by the Assad regime forces to launch the August 21st 2013 Damascus chemical attack. • The allegation of an “Intelligence failure” is therefore groundless. • The Assad regime had the motive, the weapons and the opportunity to do it. • The alternative theory – that the insurgents gassed their own forces in the midst of a raging Syrian Army offensive, instead of gassing the oncoming Syrian Army troops – stretches credibility to the limit. • The real enigma is why neither the US nor the EU demanded a UN mandated board of inquiry to indict the responsible persons and bring them to justice.
  25. 25. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 25 Syria and Iran Join Forces to Destabilize the Israeli – Palestinian Confrontation The Saga of The Heavy Rocket Shipment The rocket shipment trail Klose C in Eilat Unloaded 302 mm rockets
  26. 26. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 26
  27. 27. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 27 Iran’s ballistic missiles and space launchers
  28. 28. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 28 Space Launchers Safir Simorgh Ballistic Missiles Sejjil Ghader F Shahab 3 Shahab 2 Qiam
  29. 29. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 2929 A Slowdown in Iran’s Missile and Space Programs? • No announced test of either liquid or solid propellant long range ballistic missile from February 2011 till February 2014 – a 3 years hiatus. • No “Great Prophet” exercise – usually featuring numerous ballistic missile launches- since July 2012, more than a year and a half ago. • No announced space launches since February 2012, two years ago. • Some analysts attribute this lull to the sanctions that presumably starved the programs from materials, components and money. • However, there is ample evidence to the contrary.
  30. 30. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 30 May 2012 Launch Attempt Courtesy Janes Defense Weekly
  31. 31. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 31 October 2013 Launch Attempt Courtesy Janes Defense Weekly
  32. 32. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 32 February 2013 Launch Attempt Courtesy Janes Defense Weekly
  33. 33. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 33 2008 20132012201120102009 F S F SS F FF Iran Space Launch Record
  34. 34. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 34 May 2013: Shahab 3 Launcher Production Line Unveiled
  35. 35. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 35 Ballistic Missile Launcher Mimicking Civilian Semitrailer
  36. 36. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 36 650 ft 450 ft August 2013: Another Giant Missile Launch Complex Unveiled
  37. 37. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 37 Iran’s Newly Discovered Giant Missile Launch Complex Shahrud Semnan
  38. 38. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 38 February 2014: Iran Tests a Cluster Warhead Version of Shahab 3 Missile
  39. 39. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 39 March 2014: Iran’s Missile Storage Facilities Unveiled 24 Quiam in Narrow Tunnel44 Quiam in Hangar 15 Kadr F in Wide Tunnel
  40. 40. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 40 Quiam 1 – A Finless Derivation of Shahab 2 Only one single flight test disclosed to date
  41. 41. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 41 Kadr F – Extended Range Derivation of Shahab 3
  42. 42. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 42 Conspicuous in its Absence: Sejjil Two Stage Solid Propellant Missile
  43. 43. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 43 Are Iran’s Missile and Space Programs Going Covert? • The Shahab program goes on; this is evident form the busy production line of its launchers and the large storage facilities. • The full scale production of Quiam 1 hints of more flight tests than the single disclosed test. • The construction of a second large flight test facility indicates and accelerated flight test program. • The Space program may be actually speeding up. • The perceived “lull” is not due to sanction induced shortages, but to a combination of technical difficulties and policy decisions:  The Sejil solid propellant IRBM may still be recovering from a snag - or is being deemphasized to allay European concerns.  The unsuccessful space launches remain unannouced.  Ballistic missile tests are concealed.  A new policy of opacity and toning down of rhetoric as part of a wider diplomatic effort to ease the sanctions.
  44. 44. March 2014March 2014 Rocket and Missiles in The Middle EastRocket and Missiles in The Middle East Rubincon Ltd. Defense Technology ConsultingDefense Technology Consulting 44 Strategic Implications • Syria: Lowly Rockets threatened to leverage a civil war into a global crisis. • Iran: Contrary to the optimism of some observers, there is no let down in the rapid buildup of rocket and missile threats from Iran. If anything, it is accelerating. • A nuclear deal with Iran will not mitigate its prospective missile threat and will not change the rationale for the European Territorial Defense program (EPAA) • Unless EPAA is conceded by Russia, there is a prospect that it would compel it to deploy missiles against Europe and perhaps to walk out of the INF treaty. • Thus, Iran’s missile program are not just Middle East destabilizers: They have the potential to become global destabilizers. • Yet missile are not included in the present negotiations with the Iran. It might be useful to correct this situation.

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