Introduction to Prompt Engineering (Focusing on ChatGPT)
A2 planning for a changing climate
1. Planning for a Changing Climate: Practical Approaches to Adaptation
Jen West, Coastal Training Program Coordinator, Narragansett Bay Research Reserve
Jon Reiner, former Director of Planning, Town of North Kingstown
Chris Witt, acting Supervising Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program
Chelsea Siefert, Principal Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program
2. Collectively Managing Climate Change Risks
New England Climate Adaptation Project
Jen West, Coastal Training Program Coordinator
Narragansett Bay Research Reserve
3.
4. Project Goals
Assess local climate change risks
Identify key challenges and opportunities for adaptation
Test the use of role-play simulations as a tool for educating the public about climate change threats and helping communities explore ways of enhancing their climate preparedness
5. Project Outputs
Public opinion polls
Summary Risk Assessment
Stakeholder Assessment
Tailored, science-based role-play simulation
Case study (in process)
6. Public Poll
Level of concern about climate risks
Perceived risk of climate change
7. Public Poll, con’t.
Importance of public involvement in climate adaptation decision-making
Agreement with using scientific projections in local decision- making
8. Public Poll, con’t.
Addressing climate risks in the city’s planning and decision—making processes: how significant it should be versus how significant it will actually be
9. Risk Assessment
“Downscaled” climate projections produced for:
Three time frames - Short term (2010 -2039) - Medium term (2040 -2069) - Long term (2070 -2099)
“Better case” (low emissions) and “worse case” (high emissions) climate change scenarios
A range of climate “indicators” - temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, etc.
10. Key Findings
Higher average temperatures
More extreme heat events, fewer extreme cold events
More extreme precipitation events
Wetter winters, drier summers
Significant sea level rise
11. What does this mean for Cranston?
Risk of riverine flooding
Risk of coastal flooding and storm surges
Risk of heat waves
Risk of drought
Threats to Cranston’s community, economy and ecosystems
12. Adaptation Options
Flood resilient building design
Wetland Restoration
Low impact development
Ex: flooding risk
16. Role-Play Simulation Outcomes
Concern about local climate change risks
Sense of local responsibility for preparing for and managing climate change risks
Confidence in ability of local government to take adaptation action
Participants’ understanding of other perspectives & appreciation for the need for stakeholder engagement
17. PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IN MUNICIPAL GOVERNMENT
Jon Reiner, former Director of Planning Town of North Kingstown
18. SEA LEVEL RISE: TRANSPORTATION ASSET VULNERABILITY
Chris Witt, acting Supervising Planner RI Statewide Planning Program
19. •Provide an overview for state, local staff, and the public of the exposure of our transportation assets to sea level rise inundation
•Provide transportation stakeholders with best estimation of the exposure of specific roads
Project Objectives
•Develop desktop vulnerability method for ranking adaptation priorities
•ID state transportation assets at highest risk
20. Sea Level Rise Scenarios
3 Feet
1 Foot
5 Feet
DATA SOURCES
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
Univ. of Rhode Island Environmental Data Center
METHOD
“Bathtub” model Vertical increase in sea level rise over existing terrain
24. Vulnerability Index: Basic Elements
Indicators
Scoring and weighting system
Gut check
Magnitude/urgency of physical hazard
Magnitude of social/transportation impact
25. For example…
Physical Impact Indicators
•Length/area flooded
•How soon asset will flood
•Age of infrastructure
•Elevation of infrastructure
•Condition of infrastructure
Social and Transportation Indicators
•Use level
•Capacity
•Existence of alternatives
30. RIPTA Route Vulnerability Findings
Top 11 RIPTA Routes Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Rank
#
Name
Ridership - Weekly
Frequency - Weekly Trips
SLR Scenario When Route First Impacted
Stops Flooded at 3 ft SLR
Stops Flooded at 5 ft SLR
Length Flooded at 5 ft
Vulnerability Index Score
1
60
PROVIDENCE/NEWPORT
332,983
551
1
5
33
15,918
10.0
2
66
URI/GALILEE
192,375
278
3
1
6
7,561
5.6
3
14
WEST BAY
85,518
190
3
2
9
8,660
5.2
4
33
RIVERSIDE
158,398
404
3
0
4
1,485
4.5
5
64
NEWPORT/URI
41,475
118
3
0
7
6,430
3.9
5
65
WAKEFIELD EXPRESS
28,935
55
3
1
4
5,605
3.9
7
3
WARWICK AVE
148,719
399
3
0
0
1,195
3.8
8
67
BELLEVUE MANSION/SALVE REGINS
54,220
514
5
0
1
2,576
3.7
9
32
EAST PROVIDENCE/WAMPANOAG
24,958
189
3
0
4
1,485
3.6
9
34
EAST PROVIDENCE
55,565
209
3
0
4
1,485
3.6
9
1
EDDY ST
197,685
516
5
0
0
801
3.6
31. Bridge Vulnerability Index
Indicator*
Type
Weight
Scoring
Freeboard
Hazard
0.25
Freeboard problem or unknown = 10; No problem = 0
Access
Hazard
0.2
Access problem = 10; no problem = 0
Height of freeboard
Hazard
0.1
less than 40" = 10; 41-75“ = 6; more than 75" = 2
Over MHHW
Hazard
0.2
Yes = 10; No = 0
Carries road facility
Social Impact
0
Carries road facility = 10; other = 0
AADT
Social Impact
0.25
0-1 = 0, 2-5000 = 3, 5000-15000 = 7, 15000+ = 10
32. Bridge Vulnerability Findings
Top 10 State-Owned Bridges Most Vulnerable to Sea Level Rise
Bridge Name
Town
Facility
Feature Intersected
Year Built
AADT
Inches of Freeboard4
Currently over tidal water?
Access Problem
Vulnerability Index Score
Barrington
Barrington
RI 114/103 CNTY RD
Barrington River
2009
26,000
74
Y
problem
9.6
Warren
Barrington
RI 114/103 CNTY RD
Warren River
1914
19,900
98
Y
problem
9
C.L. Hussey Memorial
North Kingstown
US 1A BSTN NCK RD
Wickford Cove
1925
9,100
48
Y
problem
8.85
Wickford
North Kingstown
US 1A Bstn Nck Rd
Academy Cove
1951
9,100
61
Y
problem
8.85
New Harbor Road
New Shoreham
Ocean Av
Trimms Pond
1925
7,000
70
Y
problem
8.85
New Shoreham
New Shoreham
Beach Av
Harbor Pond
1997
7,000
73
Y
problem
8.85
Barrington Parkway
East Providence
Veterans Mem Pkwy
Watchemoket Cove
1973
12,700
80
Y
problem
8.25
Bridgetown
Narragansett
Bridgetown Rd
Pettaquamscutt River
1934
9,800
86
Y
problem
8.25
Central
Barrington
Massasoit Av
Barrington River
1940
8,800
99
Y
problem
8.25
Silver Creek
Bristol
RI 114 Hope St
Tidal Inlet
1922
18,200
20
N
problem
8
33. General Adaptation Strategies
PROTECT
ACCOMODATE
RETREAT
DO NOTHING
Armor
Enhance natural protections
Accommodate in place
Realignment
34. How to Use Project Findings
Spending
•Asset management
•Project selection (TIP or CIP)
•Construction contracts
Planning
•Hazard mitigation plans
•Long range transportation plan
•Local comprehensive plans
Goal-setting
•MAP-21 performance measures
•Other performance management
36. Creating the Comprehensive Planning Guidance and Standards Manual
PROVIDING GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
Chelsea Siefert, Principal Planner RI Statewide Planning Program
37. Mandatory comprehensive planning in Rhode Island
All comp plans reviewed by RI Division of Planning and “approved” or “denied”
Manual provides review standards for all required topics
THE COMPREHENSIVE PLANNING GUIDANCE AND STANDARDS MANUAL
38. THE STEPS OF A VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT
Vulnerability Assessment: A tool to identify and prioritize the vulnerabilities that a system, asset or population faces in relation to a particular threat (i.e. climate change)
1.Determine scope, goals and scale of assessment
2.Gather relevant data and expertise
3.Assess vulnerability
Exposure: determine the nature and extent of the threat
Sensitivity: determine the ability of the system, asset or population to manage the exposure
Impact: determine the effect of exposure on the system, asset or population
4.Apply assessment results to decision-making
39. The plan must include an identification of areas that could be vulnerable to the effects of sea-level rise, flooding, storm damage, drought, or other natural hazards. Goals, policies, and implementation techniques must be identified that would help to avoid or minimize the effects that natural hazards pose to lives, infrastructure, and property.
Rhode Island General Laws subsection 45-22.2-6(10)
ADDRESSING NATURAL HAZARDS & CLIMATE CHANGE
40. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
What are the goals?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
To help communities become more resilient to natural hazards & climate change
To help communities identify specific techniques that can be used to avoid or minimize the effects that natural hazards pose to lives, infrastructure, and property (to include in comp plans)
BEFORE PREPARING THE GUIDANCE
41. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
Who is the audience?
What formats could the guidance take? Which is best?
Who should be involved in crafting the guidance?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
Municipal planners, Planning Boards interested residents
As part of a guidance manual currently underway
Statewide experts on natural hazards and climate change
BEFORE PREPARING THE GUIDANCE
42. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
What is required (by law, by regulation, etc.)?
In what framework will the guidance be used?
What resources are available?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
Identification of vulnerable areas
Goals, policies & implementation techniques
Must use the lens of comprehensive planning
Little to no extra resources for conducting assessments
Natural hazard and climate change maps in GIS
GUIDANCE ON THE ASSESSMENT SCOPE
43. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
What is the right scale for the assessment?
What impacts should be looked at when determining vulnerability?
What is the desired end result?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
Community-wide
Impacts to populations and government functions
Identification of major issues that natural hazards and climate change will create
GUIDANCE ON THE ASSESSMENT SCOPE
44. Scope: A preliminary community vulnerability assessment
Looks at exposure, sensitivity and impacts of individual assets to estimate overall community “vulnerability”
Includes impacts to populations and government functions
Identifies major “issues” that may be caused by natural hazards and climate change trends
GUIDANCE ON THE ASSESSMENT SCOPE
45. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
Who should be involved in conducting the assessment?
What expertise/knowledge already exists?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
Planning department staff
Local hazard mitigation officer
Local department heads (all)
State agency officials (where relevant)
Local hazard mitigation plans
State hazard mitigation plan
ADVICE ON DATA AND EXPERTISE
46. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
What data is available?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
1’, 3’ and 5’ sea level rise scenarios in GIS
Future sea level rise estimates
Worst-case hurricane inundation maps in GIS
1% and .2% flood maps in GIS
Other GIS data: infrastructure, facilities, public buildings, public lands, recreational areas, locations of emergency services
ADVICE ON DATA AND EXPERTISE
47. QUESTIONS TO BE ANSWERED
What data is not available?
EXAMPLE: COMP PLANNING MANUAL
GIS data showing exposure to other climate change trends:
Increased riverine flooding
Increased storm surge
20-year data on climate change trends that are not geographically-specific:
Longer periods of high heat and more high heat days
Longer periods of drought
More frequent precipitation events
ADVICE ON DATA AND EXPERTISE
48. Guidance should provide:
A model process that can be used to conduct the assessment
Tools to assist in the process
Example Process: Comp Planning Manual
Step 1 - Identify the infrastructure, assets, resources and populations that may be vulnerable
Step 2 - Assess the potential effects of priority natural hazards and climate change trends on the community
Step 3 - Prioritize the issues that the municipality would face in the event of future natural hazards and long-term climate change
GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
49. Step 1 - Identify the infrastructure, assets, resources and populations that may be vulnerable
Overlay the maps of the areas that will be exposed to sea level rise and flooding with maps showing various components of the community to determine what lies within those areas
Consider all infrastructure, assets, resources and populations to determine if they are likely to be impacted by any other priority natural hazard and climate change trends
GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
52. Step 2 - Assess the potential effects of priority natural hazards and climate change trends on the community
Determine which natural hazards and climate change trends are most likely to impact the community
Determine which components of the community, if impacted, would
Cause the most disruption to the community
Have the greatest effect on quality of life
Cause the most costly or irreparable damage
Assess severity of impacts:
The permanence of the impact (permanent, temporary, temporary until repaired, etc.);
The number of people and/or businesses that will likely be affected by the impact;
Whether any special populations will be unduly harmed by the impact; and
Whether any community functions and/or values (i.e. public health and safety, education, tourism) will be impacted
GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
56. Step 3 - Prioritize the issues that the municipality would face in the event of future natural hazards and long-term climate change
GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
Determine priority
Assess adaptive capacity
Determine need
Assess onset
57. Adaptive Capacity – Guiding Questions
Generally, how prepared is the community to survive, recover and/or function if the resource is impacted?
Are there currently actions in progress, planned, ready for implementation or being implemented to address the projected impact?
If the actions are not being implemented, how long until implementation begins? What resources will be necessary for implementation?
To what extent are the actions addressing the potential impact? Is it enough?
Could the policy or program be strengthened to better address the potential impact or to address additional impacts?
Is the community prepared to handle the impacts to populations and/or community functions and values in some other way?
GUIDANCE ON ASSESSING VULNERABILITY
63. Include discussion of priority issues within the comprehensive plan:
Discuss the priority impacts within the comprehensive plan, including the ways in which the municipality will address the impacts
Determine the most appropriate policies and implementation actions for addressing the impacts
Provided examples of goals, policies and actions
HELP WITH APPLYING THE ASSESSMENT RESULTS TO DECISION-MAKING
64. SMALL GROUP EXERCISES
Scenario-based Engagement
Comprehensive Planning
Data-driven Assessment
Providing Guidance
65. Jen West, Coastal
Coastal Training Program Coordinator, NBNERR
jennifer@nbnerr.org
(401) 222-4700, x7413
Jon Reiner
former Director of Planning, Town of North Kingstown
JReiner@groton-ct.gov
Chris Witt
acting Supervising Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program
Chris.witt@doa.ri.gov
(401) 222-5759
Chelsea Siefert
Principal Planner, RI Statewide Planning Program
Chelsea.siefert@doa.ri.gov
(401) 222-4721
CONTACT INFO
