Speaker: Dr Alexey Muraviev, Curtin University

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IONS Seminar, Perth
THE PROBLEM OF ENERGY SECURITY
IN THE INDIAN OCEAN
26.03.2014
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
Dr Alexey D Muraviev
Head, Department of Social Sciences & International Studies
Coordinator, International Relations & National Security programs
Founder & Director, Strategic Flashlight forum

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Major Considerations
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
 51 IOR states - coastal and land locked
The total area is 101.6 million sq km
68.56 million sq km (IO)
Total population is approximately 2.6 billion (39 % of the world’s
population)
 Some 146 ongoing conflicts
23 high intensity
 Key considerations
Continuous regional insecurity
External players interests and multifaceted power projection
IOR’s growing strategic role in world oil/gas production and transportation
26.03.2014

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Major Considerations
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 High value strategic transit route
Connecting the Middle East, Africa,
Southeast and East Asia with Europe and
Americas
Principal ‘choke points’
Suez Canal
Strait Bab el Mandeb
Strait of Hormuz
Strait of Malacca
Heavy oil traffic from the Persian Gulf to
East Asia
An estimated 40 per cent of the
world’s offshore oil production is
from the IO
26.03.2014

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 Global energy community
Global energy dependent community (14 states)
India, Singapore (OIR)
Global energy supply family (19 states)
Australia, Indonesia, Iran, UAE (plus
Arabian/Persian Gulf states)
 Strategic energy corridor
50 - 70% of oil production is shipped by tankers
via IO
80% of shipped oil passes through three
‘chock points’
Offshore oil platform, the Bay of Bengal.
A tanker passes through the Suez Canal
The Energy Vector
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014

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 Exploration and extraction operations in the IO
littoral
The Arabian/Persian Gulf vector
The African vector
Discoveries of considerable deposits of oil and gas in
Kenya, Somalia, Mozambique, Tanzania
The South and Southeast Asian vector
Offshore activities in the Bay of Bengal, Malaysia,
Indonesia, Pakistan, Singapore
The Australian vector
Western Australia
 Close proximity to clientele in Asia
The Energy Vector
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014

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The Energy Vector
The Malacca Strait - 15 mln bbl/dThe Hormuz Strait - 17 mln bbl/d
Strait Bab al-Mandab - 3 mln bbl/d
 Over 40 mln barrels daily (bbl/d)
Very large crude carriers (VLCCs)
Extra large crude carriers (ELCCs)
2 mln bbl on every voyage
Two thirds of
crude oil is
shipped by
tankers
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014

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Opportunities & Challenges
Naval force modernisation/capability enhancement
Indian naval power
Nuclearisation of IOR
Maritimised organised crime
Piracy and armed robbery at sea
Arms, other illicit cargo smuggling
Human trafficking and poaching
Maritime terrorism
Effective border and EEZ policing and protection
1/3 of Australia’s 8.5 sq mln nm EEZ is in IOR
Energy security
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014

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Opportunities v Challenges
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 South Asia
4.43 The Indian Ocean will have greater strategic
significance in the period to 2030. It will become an
increasingly important global trading thoroughfare,
particularly for energy supplies between Asia and the
Middle East. Over time... the Indian Ocean is likely to
host a larger military (particularly naval) presence. A
number of major naval powers are likely to increasingly
compete for strategic advantage in this crucial maritime
region. Over the period to 2030, the Indian Ocean will
join the Pacific Ocean in terms of its centrality to our
maritime strategy and defence planning.
26.03.2014

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South Asian Security Challenges
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014
 South Asia (DWP 2009)
4.42 The prospect of miscalculation
between India and Pakistan leading
to conflict and, in the worst case,
massive escalation, remains of
significant concern.
 South Asia (DWP 2013)
2.62 A large-scale India-Pakistan conflict cannot be ruled out.
Neither side seeks conflict, but events such as an attack on India
attributable to Pakistan-based terrorist groups, like the 2008
Mumbai attack, could trigger conflict between these two nuclear-
armed states.

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The Factor of Maritime Terrorism
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014
Around 29 March 2004, Al-Qaeda released a new
targeting guidance “The Targets Inside the Cities”
7th ed. of the Camp al-Battar Magazine
Faith (religious) targets
Economic targets
Human targets
Economic targets
Western and Jewish economic targets in the
Arabic world
International companies, consultants and
experts
Western investments and developments in the
Arabic world
Natural resource-carriers
Jewish businessmen

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The Factor of Violent Activism
26.03.2014
The Prirazlomnaya offshore facility, 18 September 2013

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School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014
 IO as an area of growing prominence
for the energy sector
Considerable opportunities for
onshore/offshore exploration
 Immediate risks posed by organised
crime
Low level terrorism risks
Risks to offshore facilities (PMV)
Agenda-driven NGOs
In Conclusion…
 Longer term security
risks
Escalation of instability
within MESC and SASC
post-2014
The evolving international threat environment
may present a different threat context five-ten
years from now…

13. Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
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Thank you…
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts 26.03.2014

14. Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
QUESTIONS?
26.03.2014
School of Media, Culture and Creative Arts
The Problem of Energy Security in the IO
Dr Alexey D Muraviev
Phone: (+61 8) 9266 2234
Email: A.Muraviev@curtin.edu.au