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Geographic Variation in Implantable Cardioverter-Defibrillator Utilization and Heart Failure Survival: Is Low ICD Use Costing Lives? Peter W. Groeneveld, MD, MS · Andrew J. Epstein, PhD, MPP · Lin Yang, MS · Feifei Yang, MS · Daniel Polsky, PhD  Philadelphia VA Medical Center; Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine;  Division of Health Policy and Administration, Yale School of Public Health Results (continued) Conclusions Implications Results Methods (continued) Patients in Study* * Projected deaths were ICD rate at the level of the highest HRR quintile ICD ADOPTION RATES BY LOCALITY (HRR) QUINTILE OF  Δ %ICD ICD USE AND MORTALITY BY LOCALITY (HRR), 2002-2006 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Background Objectives Methods ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],*  Number (%) unless otherwise indicated.  Percentages may not sum to 100 due to rounding. ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],* Data are n(%) unless otherwise indicated SURVIVAL MODEL MULTIVARIABLE REGRESSION RESULTS Base Survival Model Measure(s) of ICD use %ICD_Locality  Hazard Ratio (95% CI) ICD_Patient  Hazard Ratio (95% CI) Locality-level only 0.67 (0.52–0.85) n/a Patient-level only n/a 0.65 (0.64–0.66) Both levels 0.95 (0.75–1.21) 0.65 (0.64–0.66) Survival Model with ICD Recipients Removed from Cohort Measure(s) of ICD use %ICD_Locality  Hazard Ratio (95% CI) ICD_Patient  Hazard Ratio (95% CI) Locality-level only 0.87 (0.64–1.20) n/a POTENTIAL EXCESS HEART FAILURE MORTALITY DUE TO ICD UNDERUSE 1-Year Mortality HRR quintile  (by  Δ %ICD) Actual deaths, n Projected deaths*, n (95% CI) Difference,  n (95% CI) Highest 15,121 15,121 (n/a) 0 2nd 19,623 19,456 (19,352-19,560) 167 (63–271) 3rd 18,622 18,390 (18,247-18,535) 232 (87–375) 4 th 14,900 14,669 (14,527-14,813) 231 (87–373) Lowest 11,805 11,562 (11,413-11,713) 243 (92–392) TOTAL 80,071 79,198 (78,927-79,469) 873 (602–1,144) 2-Year Mortality HRR quintile  (by  Δ %ICD) Actual deaths, n Projected deaths*, n (95% CI) Difference,  n (95% CI) Highest 21,420 21,420 (n/a) 0 2nd 27,702 27,466 (27,319-27,613) 236 (89–383) 3rd 26,518 26,188 (25,984-26,393) 330 (125–534) 4 th 21,111 20,784 (20,582-20,987) 327 (124–529) Lowest 16,864 16,517 (16,304-16,733) 347 (131–560) TOTAL 113,615 112,375 (111,988-112,762) 1,240 (853–1,627) Variables   Low Quintile  Δ% ICD (n=135,670)   Quintile 2,  Δ% ICD (n=246,060)   Quintile 3,  Δ% ICD (n=275,040)   Quintile 4  Δ% ICD (n=305,195)   High Quintile  Δ% ICD (n=230,780)   P-value   Patient-level Age, years (std) 81 (8) 80 (8) 81 (8) 80 (8) 80 (8) <.001 Female 104,251 (59) 129,948 (59) 163,625 (59) 171,402 (59) 131,859 (58) <.001 Non-white 15,779 (9) 31,600 (14) 43,564 (16) 40,356 (14) 41,055 (18) <.001 DxCG Riskscore,  mean (std) 1.29  (1.05) 1.31 (1.08) 1.34 (1.12) 1.32 (1.11) 1.31 (1.13) <.001 Arrhythmia  78,343 (44) 94,579 (43) 116,176 (42) 122,843 (42) 93,986 (41) <.001 Valvular disease 1,202 (1) 1,376 (1) 1,822 (1) 2,043 (1) 1,623 (1) .001 Peripheral vascular disease 13,629 (8) 16,522 (7) 21,948 (8) 23,156 (8) 16,646 (7) <.001 Pulmonary disease 59,550 (34) 74,302 (34) 91,160 (33) 98,639 (34) 73,694 (32) <.001 Diabetes, uncmpl. 46,078 (26) 57,485 (26) 72,236 (26) 76,917 (26) 59,811 (26) .002 Diabetes with complications 9,454 (5) 11,846 (5) 15,791 (6) 15,578 (5) 11,685 (5) <.001 Renal disease 25,539 (14) 33,038 (15) 41,793 (15) 43,643 (15) 31,700 (14) <.001 Liver disease 1,448 (1) 1,896  (1) 2,500 (1) 2,628 (1) 2,115 (1) .001 Cancer, no mets. 8,280 (5) 10,576 (5) 13,390 (5) 13,651 (5) 10,617 (5) .02 Locality (HRR)-level Population, mean 729,117 919,014 1,179,765 1,087,331 954,702 .03 Population density, pop/sqml  262 345 691 891 959 .01 Black population, % 6  9  11  12  13  <.001  Per capita income, $  19,750 20,626 20,291 20,376 20,185 .95 Academic hospitals per HRR, mean n 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.1 1.1 .19 ICD/CRT hospitals per HRR, mean n 3.6 4.7 6.9 5.9 5.6 .01 Acute hospital beds, n/1,000 pop 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.5 2.6 .39 Cardiologists, n/100,000 pop 5.5 5.6 5.7 6.2 6.0 .14

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