Yahoos Sensitivity AnalysisWorking Capital Calculation2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Net Receivables 1,003,362 1,0...
FCF Calculatioin2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Revenue 6,460,315 6,324,651 4,984,199 5,083,883 5,185,561 5,289,272...
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Optimal Capital Structure Analysis & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

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Optimal Capital Structure Analysis & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

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Optimal Capital Structure Analysis & Valuation Sensitivity Analysis

  1. 1. Yahoos Sensitivity AnalysisWorking Capital Calculation2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Net Receivables 1,003,362 1,028,900 1,037,474 346,200 353,124 360,187 367,391 374,738Inventory - - - - - - - -Accounts Payable 1,306,584 1,371,216 1,012,639 369,840 377,237 384,782 392,477 400,327Days in Accounts Receivable 58.3 58.6 75.7 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2Days in Accounts Payable 41.20 77.27 87.29 68.59 68.59 68.59 68.59 68.59Working Capital (303,222) (342,316) 24,835 (23,640) (24,113) (24,595) (25,087) (25,589)Assumption (1) : days in Accounts Receivable and days in Accounts Payable in forcasting period are the average days for that of actual historical data.Beta CalculationeBay google amazon IACI AverageLeverage Beta 0.96 1.18 0.9 0.45 0.87Debt/ Equity 21.66 10.05 53.43 44.74Tax % from 10- K 20.00% 21.00% 35.00% 41.00%Unleverage Beta 0.05 0.13 0.03 0.02 0.06Yahoo WACC CalculationLeverage Beta From Yahoo 0.87 Rrf (10-Y T-Bill) 4.50%Debt/ Equity 0.85 Rm 7.20%Tax % from 10- K 30.00% Beta 0.91Unleverage Beta 0.55 Rcs 11.05200%Rd 0.1Unleverage Beta Mean (Option One)= (0.55+0.06)/2= 0.30 (take this one causes we think it is more risky than before) Tax% 30%Unleverage Beta Mean (Option Two)= sum of 5 betas/ 5= 0.15 D/E 0.1792Debt 2.54Yahoo Equity 14.56Average Unleverage Beta 0.30 Wd 14.85%Debt/ Equity 0.85 Wcs 85.15%Tax % from 10- K 30.00% WACC 10.44%Leverage Beta for this Case 0.48Assumptions: (2) future beta, capital structure, and tax rate remain the same(3) capital structure and tax rate remain the same
  2. 2. FCF Calculatioin2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Revenue 6,460,315 6,324,651 4,984,199 5,083,883 5,185,561 5,289,272 5,395,057 5,502,958COGS 2,871,746 2,627,545 1,502,650 1,968,223 2,007,588 2,047,740 2,088,694 2,130,468EBIT 574,220 1,070,393 827,516 718,782 733,158 747,821 762,778 778,033CSGS/ Revenue 44.45% 41.54% 30.15% 38.71% 38.71% 38.71% 38.71% 38.71%EBITDA/ Revenue 20.33% 27.30% 29.16% 25.60% 25.60% 25.60% 25.60% 25.60%Capex/ Revenue 6.71% 11.29% 11.90% 9.97% 9.97% 9.97% 9.97% 9.97%EBIT/ Revenue 8.89% 16.92% 16.60% 14.14% 14.14% 14.14% 14.14% 14.14%EBITDA 1,313,075 1,726,790 1,453,380 1,301,263 1,327,288 1,353,834 1,380,910 1,408,529Less D & A (738,855) (656,397) (625,864) (582,480) (594,130) (606,013) (618,133) (630,496)EBIT 574,220 1,070,393 827,516 718,782 733,158 747,821 762,778 778,033Provision for Taxes (30%) (219,321) (221,523) (241,767) (215,635) (219,947) (224,346) (228,833) (233,410)NOPAT 354,899 848,870 585,749 503,148 513,211 523,475 533,944 544,623Plus D & A 738,855 656,397 625,864 582,480 594,130 606,013 618,133 630,496Less Change in Net W/C 1,211,775 39,094 (367,151) 48,475 473 482 492 502Less Capex (433,795) (714,078) (593,294) (506,840) (516,977) (527,317) (537,863) (548,620)FCF 1,871,734 830,283 251,168 627,263 590,836 602,653 614,706 627,000Assumptions: (4) Revenue has 2% growth in future(5) COGS, EBITDA, Capex, EBIT all have fixed multiple with revenue; multiples are the average of historical mean(6) tax rate remain as 30%Terminal Value Multiple MethodPV of TV at 2011 EBITDA EVDiscount Rate (WACC) PV of FCFs 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.3 0.35 0.49.94% 2,324,277 4,388,124 5,119,478 5,850,832 6,712,401 7,443,755 8,175,10910.19% 2,309,471 4,280,426 4,993,831 5,707,235 6,589,897 7,303,301 8,016,70610.44% 2,294,816 4,177,889 4,874,204 5,570,518 6,472,704 7,169,019 7,865,33410.69% 2,280,310 4,080,149 4,760,174 5,440,198 6,360,459 7,040,483 7,720,50810.94% 2,265,951 3,986,877 4,651,357 5,315,837 6,252,829 6,917,308 7,581,788TV/ EV Value per Share0.3 0.35 0.4 0.3 0.35 0.465% 69% 72% 5.74 6.36 6.9965% 68% 71% 5.63 6.24 6.8565% 68% 71% 5.53 6.13 6.7264% 68% 70% 5.44 6.02 6.6064% 67% 70% 5.34 5.91 6.48Assumptions: (7) All FCFs flow in at each year end(8) multiple is low for the reason of FCF/ TV= 5%- 10%(9) capital structure, cash, and shares outstanding remain the same(10) adjustment on minority interest is same as pepetuity growth method as followsAdjustment on Equity by Cash, Debt, and Minority InerestAlibaba Interest (42%) 2,522 Less Mino. Int. -40,280Less Alibaba Repo (20%) 1,201 Less Debt (3)Gain on Alibaba Contract 4,500,000 Plus Cash 1,562,390Adjustment on Equity Value 4,498,799 Plus Adjustment 4,498,799Total Net Adjust. 6,020,907Shares On Hand 1,170,000Pepetual Growth % 2.00%Assumptions: (11) Pepetual growth of 2% revenue forecastPerpetuity Growth MethodMid- Year PV of TV at 2011 EBITDA EVDiscount Rate (WACC) PV of FCFs 0.01% 0.05% 0.10% 0.01% 0.05% 0.10%9.94% 2,324,277 6,317,232 6,345,329 6,380,771 8,641,509 8,669,606 8,705,04810.19% 2,309,471 6,162,036 6,188,827 6,222,615 8,471,507 8,498,298 8,532,08610.44% 2,294,816 6,014,283 6,039,860 6,072,110 8,309,099 8,334,676 8,366,92610.69% 2,280,310 5,873,450 5,897,896 5,928,714 8,153,759 8,178,206 8,209,02410.94% 2,265,951 5,739,061 5,762,452 5,791,934 8,005,012 8,028,403 8,057,885TV/ EV Value per Share0.01% 0.05% 0.10% 0.01% 0.05% 0.10%73% 73% 73% 7.39 7.41 7.4473% 73% 73% 7.24 7.26 7.2972% 72% 73% 7.10 7.12 7.1572% 72% 72% 6.97 6.99 7.0272% 72% 72% 6.84 6.86 6.89Assumptions: (12) pepetual growth rate is low for FCF/TV= 5%- 10%

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